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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Derby Rules Reminder

This list was posted back in 2020. I am bringing it back, dusting it off and adding to it.

These scripted rules have come into play year after year after year.

Jot these things down, save them in a keepsake box, pass them down to your grandkids and refer to them every single solitary year when handicapping the Kentucky Derby...

1. Any colt who is completely and overwhelmingly packed with stamina, with a stamina index under 1.00, (especially when sitting at the very bottom of the stamina category within the field) - USE HIM.

2. If there are 2 colts on the field that follow rule number one, USE THEM BOTH.

3. Any colt that is packing total profile points over 36 points, rain or shine - USE HIM.

4. Speed colts (3.00 and over) who hit a 19 par and over in all 3 slots of their triads - SPREAD HIM.

5. Speed colts who have the distance but are below par in the triads - Use him underneath.

6. Any colt who has Tapit in the first or second generation with a chef index above 3.10 - Spread him.

7. Any colt who has Tapit in the first or second generation with a chef index of 3.00 or under - Toss him, unless there is evidence of extreme speed inheritance coming from the mares.

8. Refer to Rule #7 and wait for the 12f Belmont Stakes - Spread him.

10. Speed indexes excel on a sloppy track, with 95% winning ratios.

11. Most every graded stakes race at 10f, three speed guys and one stamina guy comprises the top 4.

12. Contenders in the Derby who fall in the 2.10 to 2.90 category should always be dismissed UNLESS they have SHOWN brilliance CONSISTENTLY leading up to the Derby. Projecting maturity holds no water. They will always be the most disadvantaged on the field unless they have shown that they are NOT running to those numbers in their previous races.

13. If Bob Baffert has a horse in the race, regardless of configurations - Spread Him.

14. Never ever overlook a 3rd place finisher from a prep race if he is holding the proper Derby configurations.

15. Always consider the past wins and the losses as they relate to a speed bias, negatively or positively, making sure that the positive side still has the proper Derby configurations.

16. Proper Derby configurations depict extreme speed over extreme stamina. The colt needs both sides regardless of the category he falls into. These sides will either be depicted in his numbers (if he is a speed category colt) or displayed (if he is a stamina colt).

17. High Line-breeding to St. Simon holds an extra advantage.

18. Never forget these rules.


Past article References:


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