Past Derby Numbers

I'll Have Another - The Exception

Below is the list of the Top 5 Derby Finishers of Past 10 Years. This centers entirely around the chefs and does not acknowledge the mare contribution.

Chef Indexes 3.00 and over constitute SPEED colts.

Chef Indexes 2.10 and under constitute STAMINA Colts.

Chef Indexes 2.10 to 2.90 constitute MID-RANGE colts.

2018 (Sloppy Track)

This year presented 3 speed demons with 3.00+ indexes. Instilled Regard cracked the Superfecta with his chef stamina index which is a big feat. His loaded mare triads may have been the key there or it could have just been his luck in the pack which trailed behind the top 3. As usual speed prevails on a sloppy field. Speed prevails.

1. 3.00 - Justify

2. 3.40 - Good Magic

3. 5.00 - Audible

4. 1.59 - Instilled Regard

5. 1.77 - My Boy Jack

2017 (Sloppy Track)

The top 5 fit the sloppy track criteria to a T. Four of them had speedy dosage indexes above the 3.00 mark. Battle of Midway was packing a loaded chef profile which totaled points of 44 which is always a standout on a sloppy track. Speed prevails.

1. 5.00 - Always Dreaming

2. 3.40 - Lookin at Lee

3. 2.83 - Battle of Midway (DP = 44 points)

4. 5.00 - Classic Empire

5. 3.00 - Practical Joke

2016 (Clear Track)

As usual, the top consisted of high speed dosage indexes with a stamina guy who burst into the party on a clear track. These indexes represent the most advantaged on the field and this year speed dominated because they were equipped with enough mare stamina to get them to the wire first. Gun Runner, as a stamina horse, positioned himself at the front and was able to compete comfortably with the speed. This year was written like a script. Speed prevails.

1. 7.00 - Nyquist

2. 3.40 - Exaggerator

3. 1.25 - Gun Runner

4. 3.00 - Mohaymen

5. 4.20- Suddenbreakingnews

2015 (Clear Track)

The two mid-range hotshots broke up this party this year, however Frosted and Dortmund proved to be standouts on the trail the entire time. This year proves that you can never disregard those mid-range colts, as they do tend to break that barrier and prevail against their disadvantage. Speed prevails on top.

1. 4.33 - American Pharoah

2. 3.00 - Firing Line

3. 2.38 - Dortmund

4. 2.75 - Frosted

5. 3.44 - Danzig Moon

2014 (Clear Track)

Odd year again with Commanding Curve, however, his 2.14 index is extremely close to that 2.10 cut-off turning into the stamina category. But this truly was an exceptionally crazy year which does happen. Even the mare numbers with this group was fairly off. Strange year. (Maybe because Shared Belief and Honor Code were missing in action - just jokin!) Speed prevails.

1. 3.29 - California Chrome

2. 2.14- Commanding Curve

3. 3.00 - Danza

4. 2.27 - Wicked Strong

5. 1.22 - Samraat

2013 (Sloppy Track)

Another Year that fits the Sloppy track to a T. Scripted and perfect. The superfecta consisted of the high speed indexes coupled with the most loaded Total Points found in their chefs profile. Golden Soul, the longshot, was staring us in the face before that gate opened with those 38 points on a sloppy track. To go back in time would be wonderful!

1. 3.21 – Orb (DP = 40 Points)

2. 1.92 - Golden Soul (DP = 38 Points)

3. 3.00 - Revolutionary (DP = 32 Points)

4. 3.57 - Normandy Invasion (DP = 32 Points)

5. 2.00 - MyLute

2012 (Clear Track)

A year where I'll have Another cracks that barrier, however, he was .01 off of that 2.10 cutoff which would realistically put him into the stamina category. Went the Day Well edged out Creative Cause to capture 4th by the skin of his teeth. A year which makes one remember that you must look at those mid-range colts and never disregard them even though they hold that disadvantage. The good ones will always stand out. Being closer to the stamina end and near the 2.10 cut-off helps a great deal as well.

1. 2.11 - I’ll Have Another (close to 2.10 cut-off by .01)

2. 3.00 - Bodemiester

3. 4.20 - Dullahan

4. 2.20 - Went The Day Well (close to 2.10 cut-off by .10)

5. 1.43 - Creative Cause

2011 (Clear Track)

This year, stamina beat speed. Mucho snuck in with his mid-range index and the speedy high indexed Shackleford rounded out the super. Another year that runs pretty much the same. Again, never bypass the mid-range colts. They may have a very hard time winning but they can grab their small piece. They must be standouts. Stamina prevails.

1. 1.67 - Animal Kingdom

2. 4.33 - Nehro

3. 2.43 - Mucho Macho Man

4. 3.62 - Shackleford

5. 1.07 - Master of Hounds

2010 (Sloppy Track)

This year mimics 2013 and 2017 almost exact. All high indexed speed colts coupled with the guy who was packing a loaded chef profile that totals a large 38 points. Never underestimate the impact of a loaded profile on a sloppy track. And this includes loaded triads as well. Speed prevails.

1. 3.00 - Supersaver

2. 3.21 - Ice Box

3. 2.80 - Paddy O’Prado (DP = 38 points)

4. 3.31 - Make Music For Me

5. 3.36 - Nobles Promise

2009 (Sloppy Track)

Another repeat sloppy year with the same numbers hitting that board like the previous ones.

Notice Papa Clem. Loaded chef profile totals 42 points. The superfecta consisted of all speed demons and that lone high total points guy. Scripted again. Speed prevails.

1. 4.33 - Mine That Bird

2. 3.89 - Pioneerof the Nile

3. 4.00 - Musket Man

4. 2.82 - Papa Clem (DP = 42 Points)

5. 2.08 - Chocolate Candy

2008 (Clear Track)

A clear track year where the stamina guy beats out the speed guy (it's always one or the other!) A speed guy grabs third and a stamina (under 2.10) takes 4th. Another speedy guy rounds out the Super High 5. This is another scripted scenario. All speed and stamina on top where no mid-range guys were able to break in.

1. 1.67- Big Brown

2. 3.27 - Eight Belles

3. 3.40 - Denis of Cork

4. 2.00 - Tale of Ekati

5. 5.00 - Recapturetheglory

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