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The Power of the Packed Profile


Barbaro

Everything we work on here at the Dirty Horse Club revolves around the combinations of the chefs and the reines profiles in order to achieve the potential distance capacity within a colt. The elite chefs combined with the elite mares will give the strongest and most accurate picture of what the colt is holding, especially when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. This article will present the exact opposite argument and the ONLY instance when rules do not apply. Combinations do not apply. Categories do not apply. Most importantly, the mares entire contribution does not apply.


THE PACKED PROFILE


Prior to the onslaught of Baffert's souped up speed demons (prior to 2015) there was a recurring and almost guaranteed tell-tale sign of a champion for the Kentucky Derby (and Triple Crown races) - A chefs profile that was packed up with at least 30 total points when each category was added together across the board. Most were way above that 30 point cut-off and the higher it goes, the better.


Examples of packed and loaded chefs profiles:


Barbaro - DP = 14-8-21-2-1 (46)

Secretariat - DP = 20-14-7-9-0 (50)

Risen Star - DP = 12-15-27-4-2 (60)

Affirmed - DP = 8-6-26-0-0 (40)


Regardless of Index, CD, Category, Mare's profile - regardless of anything - that 30+ 40+, 50+ points in that profile depicts an extraordinary amount of elite and superior listed contributing chefs within the first 4 generations of his chart. These high-caliber sires, coming from any of the 5 categories across the spectrum, Brilliant - Intermediate - Classic - Solid - Professional, bestowed remarkable distance ability across the board.


The higher amount of points depicted within a given chefs profile will tell you, easily and with common sense, that this colt has an exceptionally high amount of elite blood and qualities from the best sires in the world and also throughout history. These sires are the chosen ones based on their time-tested ability to pass these qualities and distances through their mating regardless of the mare he was bred with. All of these sires contributing their ability to pass down dominance within each category across the distance spectrum will enable the colt to have advantage across the board.


They also contribute their attributes and characteristics as well. Because of the unusually high amount of "contributors" - Bias preferences run the gamut. Sloppy track preference comes from more sires. Running styles come from more places. The more elite sires within the chart, the greater chance of grabbing those attributes, be it one of them or all of them.


Common sense dictates, if a colt has only one chef in his first four generations, it is slim to none that he will favor that sire's attributes. If a colt has 14 elite sires in his first 4 generations, chances are incredibly high that not only will he attract the attributes from one of those sires, he will most likely grab at least half of them. There is no greater distinction within any chart than a listed Chef. They are time-tested and historic sires. The Masters of the Breed. The best of the best.


When a colt is packing an incredibly high amount of chefs within his chart, they will always dominate over any positive or negative contributing attributes from the mares. Therefore, the mares input is null and void. It is an after-thought and possibly can be used as simply a small add-on. The mares configurations will only add additional speed or additional stamina where applicable but when the colt is holding so much of it across the board already, it will hold no major impact one way or the other.


Generally, when a young horse is holding 30+, 40+, 50+ points in his profile, he will inevitably be adept at all distances from his short maiden all the way through to the longest distances that he is entered. Unless he is a super-horse like some of these guys, most times, he will show his prowess and talent steadily across the distance spectrum. He will be spread out across the board with ease on the track including every bias that is presented.


The more elite sires within a chart will give the new colt a greater chance of pulling MORE of the favored attributes that go into making a maiden winner into a money-maker. Sometimes these wins will not be flashy but they will be handled without stress on the horse from the shortest distances to the longest. This happens because the colt is not dominate in just one category, he is spread across in inbred distance capability and aptitudes.


In addition, the closer a chef is within the first 4 generations, the more points the colt receives within that distance category. The closer the contributing chef is, he will offer a less "watered down" version of his traits. In this scenario, high points come from a closer knit elite sire leaving the colt with a greater chance of connecting to those qualities. He will deliver more influence. Therefore, packed and loaded chefs profiles depict either closer contributors or high amounts of chefs dotted throughout his chart. He capitalizes either way.


Not one separate category dominates and distinguishes the colt's career. He runs straight across because not one chef dominates the other. They have given him an overabundance of characteristics straight across. Nothing has the potential of getting watered down because he is dominate in each distance level.


If a colt has 5 Classic sires within his first 4 generations vs a colt who has 10 Classic sires, the probability of the colt with the 10 Classic sires will be 2 times greater to accept that distance attribute. When he has so many in each category, he becomes much more "enhanced" in each level.


Most every time that a colt with a packed up and loaded Chef's Profile enters the gate in the Kentucky Derby, he will win the race. If there are more than one, they both hit the board. Once in a great while, he at least manages a board hit. Never-the-less, a packed profile should never ever be disregarded even if the colt did not show-off with flashy timeform figures on his way to the Derby (re: Mr. Big News and the like). His breeding is spread across the board, even and balanced with great adeptness along the distance spectrum so his 6f maiden and his 9f prep will be basically even as well. Ample performances that far outweigh most every foe at 10f because he is not changing form, he is not altering his pace, and he is holding the greatest attributes from an overabundance of the greatest sires in history.


When Baffert perfected his enhanced lead speedsters, beginning in 2015 to present, no colt holding a loaded profile has won the Derby if one was entered that year, however, they all managed to hit the board...


Battle of Midway

2015 - FROSTED - 4th place

DP = 6-9-14-1-0 (30)


2017 - BATTLE OF MIDWAY - 3rd place

DP = 10-14-17-2-1 (44)


2019 - TACITUS - 3rd place

DP = 6-14-11-1-0 (32)


2019 - IMPROBABLE - 4th place

DP = 12-9-13-0-0 (34)


2020 - MR. BIG NEWS - 3rd place

DP = 5-1-33-7-0 (46)


2021 - ESSENTIAL QUALITY - 3rd place

DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32)


Regardless of Chefs Index, the CD, and the mares contribution, a packed and loaded chef's profile will always stand out as a board-hit player for the Kentucky Derby - RAIN OR SHINE.


This is what the Kentucky Derby has produced as far back as the 1940's and that historical fact will never change.


DERBY WINNERS WITH LOADED PROFILES DATING BACK TO 1940:


The above list is ONLY DERBY WINNERS. If there was a loaded profile entered into the Derby that year, he was either winning or at least hitting the board. If you ever have spare time on your hands, you can go back to each race and note the extraordinary amount of those who also hit within the top 4 superfecta with a high amount of profile points. That number is consistently staggering as well.


No matter if they came from the speed category, the average category or the stamina category and no matter if it is a sunny beautiful day or if it is raining buckets, a colt who is holding a loaded profile will always have a very high and off the charts advantage on that field. It doesn't matter what post he is in, it doesn't matter if he is a lead, a stalker or a closer. Every attribute is covered. The best thing is that it doesn't matter what his odds are either.


You can see from the chart above that the Indexes and the CD's run the full spectrum from a high of 3.67 all the way through to a low of .33. Their CD's go from the lowest in negatives all the way through to the highest 1.07. These figures hold no significance because a packed and loaded chef's profile will tend to balance them across the speed spectrum, all the way through from sprinters speed to the high stamina inbred distances. They are automatically balanced through their chefs and they are adept on the speed side and the endurance side. They will generally run the same, with great ease across each distance.


The numbers never lie.


Also of great note, with the exception of 2018, the year that Baffert's Justify won the roses, every year that the Derby was run on a sloppy track and a horse was gated with a packed and loaded chef's profile, that horse won the Derby. Speaks volumes of how a horse who tested positive in the Santa Anita Derby defied a perfect historical Derby record with the dosage figures.

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8 Comments


Unknown member
Feb 28, 2022

This is one of the main reasons why I think Spin Wheel would be a great competitor in the Belmont Stakes. His numbers are perfect for that race.


Spin Wheel DP = 7-13-17-1-0 (38) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.68

Mare Profile = 1-5-5-12-4 Speed = 6 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.48 Triads = 11-22-21

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Unknown member
Feb 25, 2022

Yes, many thanks for this Lisa. It is true that certain individuals can have more than one string to their bow, so to speak, and be effective at distances across the distance range.

When the majority of the points appear in the central Classic category, for example, we might expect that individual to accurately perform to their indicative index mark. We term this ‘dominant classicity’ (first coined by Leon Rasmussen, former ‘Bloodlines’ columnist in Daily Racing Form), when the central distance category Classic points exceed all of the other category points combined. But when the points are spread across the board, from Brilliant to Professional in a significant amount it is, not unreasonably, very likely to indicate versatility across the…

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Unknown member
Feb 26, 2022
Replying to

It's a great pleasure to appear on such a well organised and knowledgeable site Lisa.

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Unknown member
Feb 25, 2022

Courvoisier 5-9-19-1-0 (34) and Stellar Tap 6-12-12-2-0 (32). Your thoughts on them?

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Unknown member
Feb 26, 2022
Replying to

I wrote up Courvoisier on the Prep winners part one article.


Both are Tapit colts which are read differently that normal. Courvoisier 2.24 index will have a harder time in the Derby as usual. Stellar Tap with a 3.00 index, we have to see if he can break through with his speed.

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Unknown member
Feb 25, 2022

So interesting

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Unknown member
Feb 25, 2022

WOW.......

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