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2025 Breeders Cup Races - Notes, Picks and Tips

  • Oct 29
  • 5 min read

Updated: Nov 1




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Race 6 - BC Juvenile Turf Sprint


Stacked race with Aiden's Brigade and even his son Donnacha has an entry with the #8 Havana Anna. There may be a minor shot there but Dad looks to have him beat. Aiden's #9 True Love, the filly who put on quite a show at Newmarket last out, has the speed, the stamina, and the training. She'll be dropping down in distance which could affect the outcome in a sprint negatively. You have to wonder why Christophe Soumillon opts to ride #1 Brussels, who has only won one race in six tries when he could easily climb back aboard #7 Mission Central, the Gelding who blasted his race at Ascot. Considering the United States crew, #6 Intricate Spirit looks intriguing and may like the change of scenery out West. Very stacked race and with so many O'Brien horses, most likely I'll sit this one out. It's too overwhelming to pick apart without the proper stats.

Race 8 - John Deere Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf


→ Precise has been scratched.


“Precise gave ten coughs this morning. We sent her bloods to the lab and unfortunately the results weren’t satisfactory, so she won’t run.” Aidan O’Brien


Aiden O'Brien draws another outside gate with the ML favorite #13 Precise who is definitely the one to beat regardless of post position. Christophe aboard. I generally don't handicap or bet on fillies so I won't dive all the way in. I will place a win bet though on the trainer himself out of complete respect and for the thrills - knowing full well that the payout will be lousy.

Race 9 - FanDuel Breeder's Cup Juvenile Full Race Analysis Posted


→ Blackout Time has been scratched.


#7 Brant has a good shot at pulling off the upset over the well deserving favorite #8 Ted Noffey who should be right on his heels every step of the way. #1 Intrepido and #2 Blackout Time seem well poised and ready to grab a piece of the pie. That pair seems even steven and competitive from all angles. Unfortunate that the "otherwise" good looking 30-1 maiden longshot, #3 Mr. A.P. still hasn't worked a stitch to prepare - hard to back him with no preparation but I really really want to. No workouts - at all - since October 6th - That's a tough one right there.


Race 10 - BC Breeder's Juvenile Turf


There would never be any turf race, at any time, that I would ever bet against the greatest turf trainer in the world, especially for one of his 2 year old turf runners. Not even the worst gate assignment would stop me. Not even without his star jockey Ryan Moore. Aiden O'Brien saddles #14 Gstaad with Christophe Soumillon as the 9/5 ML favorite and he is really all that matters.


#12 Bottas looks ready to roll, and #13 Hey Nay Nay stands out as well.


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Race 5 - Prevagen Turf Sprint


→ Arizona Blaze has been scratched.


The 7 year old closer #1 Motorious, who has posted the fastest of the field at the 5f distance, unfortunately draws the rail. Another closer, #3 Arizona Blaze, trained by Adrian Murray, comes in very hot after a nice win at Curragh. He will be running after #8 Ag Bullet and #10 Shisospicy. Sentimental Mention: The oldest BC runner of the weekend, the nine year old #4 Khaadem, seems much better at closing at the 5.5f and 6f distance, not as fast or as efficient at the shorter 5f but still gutsy in his old age.

Race 6 - Cygames Sprint


#1 Kopian is the horse to beat but by pulling the one hole, it may have opened up some breathing room. The ever consistent and well bred #10 Bentornato is a powerhouse stayer in the sprint game and draws well. With M/L odds at 15 to 1, Richard Mandella's #5 Big City Lights has been on a tear for his last three races and if form stays put, he may be a half decent longshot play due to Kopian's draw. Dan Blacker's #12 Straight No Chaser could be ready to run back to back if fully recovered from that mess in Meydan, but you never know if they will ever be the same.

Race 8 - Longines Turf


Fourteen stayers entered into this race with eleven of them set at double digit odds is like a gambler's paradise. So you search and search using ridiculous PP's and every possible outlet on the internet to get info looking to find that possible longshot. There is a reason why Aiden O'Brien's filly #8 Minnie Hauk is listed at 8-5 ml odds. She can fly at 12f, consistently, on firm turf or "very soft" turf. She walks into her gate hand in hand stat-wise with the powerful and consistent jet-setter #1 Rebel's Romance at ml 5-2 odds, Appleby's star always in beast-mode no matter the country.


Then there is #2 Goliath, the German wonder who found his sweet spot last out at the 12f distance and hit the same mark as his two main rivals. The only one to do so on this field. Goliath upset a very strong field at Ascot last year in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and slammed the 12f Grosser Preis Von Baden in Germany in his last, producing figures on par with the top two. Notable here is the fact that Appleby scratched Rebel's Romance out of that race due to the softer ground which shows that Goliath may have a very hard time here. He's said to be much fonder of the softer ground than he may see here on Saturday. He's known for his "signature" hind leg gait when he walks. Truly is so endearing, it makes you melt. Would love to see him pull it off.


So, with the iffy-ness of the ground for Goliath, there is a strong chance that we see a nice payout with strong double-digit odds hitting that board somewhere in a superfecta, especially in an upset. Charles Appleby only flies horses he believes in and with his Rebel's Romance locked in place in the dreaded stall one, maybe his other, the #10 El Cordobes for Godolphin, has a shot at the filly as well. El Cordobes had a breakout race at Saratoga traveling the 12f distance, almost hitting the elite mark of his superstar barn mate. Other than that, the rest of the field sits pretty much together in a full tier below - close your eyes and take a stab!

Race 9 - Longines Breeders Cup Classic Breeders Cup Classic Full Analysis


For the Win, I'm sticking with #1 Fierceness. He needs the break of his life today against this group. Seeing a tie underneath with #5 Forever Young and #9 Journalism and #7 Sierra Leone for the superfecta. After much deliberation, I'll be taking a stab with the longshot #10 Antiquarian throughout. Such a terrific group of fantastic competitors and the hardest handicapping race I've seen in quite a long time. Each horse in this race (with the exception of the rabbit) has a sincere shot at that trophy. All of them equally deserving of a place on that ticket. There is no right or wrong here. This is truly a top quality field.

Race 11 - BC Dirt Mile


→ White Abarrio is a late scratch. Of course he is.


I'm going to go out on a limb here and state that I don't think Saffie got the memo that his charge, the #10 White Abarrio, hated the Saratoga bias. Poor guy had to suffer through that for the longest time. He could be poised to dust off and shine again here but he does have a big competitor to fight against with the installed favorite: Baffert's boy, #3 Nysos, is a given in this race but the odds are so low. And lastly, it appears quite plausible that his speedy stablemate #7 Citizen Bull has a great opportunity to shine in this spot as well. I like this trio very much and will use them in various ways across the board.


 
 
 

19 Comments


Unknown member
Nov 02

R.I.P. She’s Quality.Died as a result of a pelvic fracture she suffered in the turf sprint

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Unknown member
Nov 03
Replying to

OMG. That is horribly sad. I didnt hear about that - shocked to read this. Horse racing can be the most incredible and amazing sport, and at the same time the most brutal.

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Unknown member
Nov 01

Well, at the very least, I had the correct super players boxed!! That was such a difficult race to figure out. I am so happy for the Japanese Connections. Forever Young is really one of a kind and has to be one of the best International dirt runners (besides Le Vent Se Leve!) I've ever seen. And Journalism, that horse is all heart. That was one sensational race!

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Unknown member
Nov 01

Thank God for that Turf Sprint!!

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Unknown member
Oct 31

Arizona Blaze now scratches out as well. Thats 3. I just cant even believe it.

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Unknown member
Oct 31

First Precise, then Blackout Time. I'm sure the scratches will keep coming.

Edited
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Unknown member
Nov 01
Replying to

I hope so too. Apparently the specific concern for the vet was related to a flexion test on one of his forelimbs. I think that's a legitimate reason to scratch. In line with your comments above, I have real issues with how this guy was managed.

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