2025 Breeder's Cup Juvenile - Analysis

October 31, 2025

Breeders Cup Juvenile

1-1/16th DelMar

2025 JUVENILE.pdf

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Post 1 INTREPIDO M/L: 8/1 Hector Berrios Jeff Mullins

BEST RPR: 110 Stalker/Closer

DP = 1-8-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 4.60

Mare Profile = 3-6-5-10-4   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.74   Triads = 14-21-19

Won the G1 American Pharoah Stakes by 3/4 length after a late rally from off the pace, thwarting a quartet of Bob Baffert trainees; undefeated in two starts since debut fourth; trained by Jeff Mullins; sold for $385,000 at OBS April 2YO sale.

Special Note: Presence of Ribot and Flower Bowl through His Majesty.

ANALYSIS: This guy did a complete 180 with his energy distribution in the Pharoah Stakes and gave superb evidence of his abality to capture and display that 4.60 speedy index along with those well positioned triads leaning heavily to the stamina side. ML odds of 8 to 1 isn't necessarily considered a live longshot but outside of Brant and Ted, you have to land somewhere. Toss up between Blackout Time and this guy, so a possible boxed super with the foursome may be in order. After all, profit is the name of the game. This guy truly stepped up and progressed last out, and if he takes yet another step forward on this conducive track, he runs with the best of them. He's built correctly, his RPR is high, (even better than Brant's) and his style is right.

WORKOUTS:

• 10/24 SA 5f 1:04.00

• 10/17 SA 4f 52.80

• 9/27 SA 4f 49.60 (Work prior to win in Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita)

• 9/20 SA 5f 58.00 Bullet 1/75

• 9/13 SA 5f 1:01.00

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POST 2 BLACKOUT TIME ML: 5/1 Irad Ortiz Kenny McPeek

BEST RPR: 107 Lead & Stalk

DP = 2-2-15-2-1 (22) DI = 1.10   CD = 0.09

Mare Profile = 6-11-2-8-6   Speed = 17   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.14   Triads = 19-21-16

Race Record 3-1-2-0 at 3 different tracks with up front favored style. Sold to Kenny McPeek for 210k.

Special Note: Son of Not This Time depicting early speed with 1.10 index.

ANALYSIS:  With the addition of Irad Ortiz, the late speed figures at 97 in his last two at 8 and 8.5f (on slower tracks), and most importantly, a 1.10 indexed son of Not This Time stepping foot for the first time on a DelMar bias may just be the perfect storm for explosion. Good post to stalk along the rail with Intrepido who will both take flight when the riff raff of some entries finally subsides. Love the grit of a Not This Time boy, especially when they hit a slick surface like DelMar. He wont vie for the lead, he can't, and this may set him up nicely for an even greater burst of energy as he nears the top of the stretch. Not This Time produces sons who have a will and determination, hidden speed, and stamina to burn - that is, when they are ridden correctly. Definite bottom of super spots, but possible to use even higher or boxed depending on how fast that track is ultimately playing. It takes a gamble to make a profit, right? His 1.10 index may come in handy late after an all out war up front to get to that stretch. Also thinking that Irad's brother on Baffert's Litmus Test may alleviate any funny business against this particular competitor.

WORKOUTS:

• 10/24 Churchill 4f 49.40

• 10/18 Churchill 5f 1:01.60

• 9/27 Churchill 5f 1:00.40 (workout prior to 2nd place Keeneland Futurity)

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POST 3 MR. A.P. ML: 30/1 Antonio Fresu Vladamir Cerin

BEST RPR: N/A Midpack to Forward

DP = 1-1-0-0-0 (2) DI = Inf   CD = 1.50 ANZ = Inf

Mare Profile = 7-2-4-6-7   Speed = 9   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.83   Triads = 13-12-17

Maiden Winner at Santa Anita boasting a 106 Equibase Speed Figure at 8f on fast bias coming off the pace. Was second to Baffert's Kristofferson in 6f maiden attempt at DelMar. 47k Yearling.

Special Note: The name is not about A.P Indy and that Crew, the A.P. references his sire, American Pharoah.

ANALYSIS:  This guy is going from an 8f maiden race to a Grade 1 up against arguably two of the best 2 years olds in the country right now. It wouldn't have been such a crazy thought (based on his consistent call figures), but as of 10/28, this colt hasn't had a legitimate workout since 10/6. With his Chef's profile folding into itself on the speed side of the scale on the back of Unbridled (B,I) way back in his 4th generation, it is easy to discern where those pretty call figures are coming from. Mr. AP matches Brant with the best evidence of the field in terms of energy distribution, posting a very impressive 98 104 92 98 across the board at 8f on the West Coast. That's not too shabby at all and sitting right there with the best of them. Under normal conditions, his stats would have been a huge attraction for board hit material underneath on a superfecta ticket especially with those M/L odds set at 30-1. I would have been all over that! But with the extra distance here, the high 1.50 CD, the lack of proper training for a Grade 1, and the caliber of his experienced foes, the Breeder's Cup may be just a step above his wheelhouse at this time. Can't knock the connections for taking a chance based on his impressive & consistent speed but a bit of preparation might have gone a long way in considering backing this maiden longshot. Is the 4 days remaining enough time to whip him into proper shape?

WORKOUTS:

10/6 Santa Anita 5f 1:00.00 (Workout prior to 8f Maiden Win at Santa Anita)

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POST 4 COMPORT ML: 30-1 Tyler Gaffalione Eddie Kenneally

BEST RPR: 106 Closer

DP = 5-5-6-0-0 (16) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.94 ANZ = 4.71

Mare Profile = 12-5-1-5-10   Speed = 17   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.15   Triads = 18-11-16

Closed strongly to finish a head second in the G3 Iroquois Stakes, nipped at the wire after a late bid; earlier won the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes (black-type) and placed in the Bashford Manor Stakes (L); trained by Eddie Kenneally; $135,000 Keeneland September yearling.

Special Note: Mare scale does not align with any West Coast BC Juvenile Winners.

ANALYSIS:  He's a determined fellow who likes to hit the exacta and he may in fact actually like the DelMar bias much better than the Churchill and Ellis Park tracks that he has performed on to date. His configurations, both top and bottom are situated to the speed side. Very telling that his speed subsided late in his last - shows he isn't holding enough stamina in his back pocket through his inheritance to sustain 46+ seconds at the half - his energy gives way even though he fights to grab his exacta spot. Realistically, his configurations favor the West Coast track over where he has been and there is a chance that he will fly on it - but this also means that he may in fact give in much sooner than norm traveling 1/16 further moving faster. He may be just on the cusp with Intrepido and Blackout Time, but a stand must be taken. Prefer a bit more on the stamina side with inheritance against the speed of Ted and Brant late nearing the stretch, therefore, I'll stick with Post One and Two as board hitters instead of here.

WORKOUTS:

• 10/25 Churchill 5f 1:00.20 (Same as Litmus Test at Santa Anita)

• 10/18 Churchill 5f 1:01.00

• 10/4 Churchill 4f 47.00 ◄    Bullet 1/149

• 9/27 Churchill 4f 49.20

• 9/6 Churchill 4f 49.00 (work prior to 2nd place in Iroquois Stakes at Churc

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POST 5 CIVIL LIBERTY ML: 30-1 Frankie Dettori Doug O'Neill

BEST RPR: 95 Stalker/Closer

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 6-4-6-6-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-16-17

Stalked the pace to finish third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity, holding off challengers late, and closed for fourth in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes; trained by Doug O'Neill; consistent graded placer in three starts.

Special Note: Minor additional stamina from 3rd generation Tapit.

ANALYSIS:  The thought of Frankie Dettori aboard a colt who posted a 46.80 bullet in his last workout on the DelMar track and who is sporting an 11.00 ANZ figure sends the Red Flags way up high on that pole. His late figure from the Pharoah Stakes took a dive, and that workout is screaming that the dive will make another appearance this coming Friday. Frankie may be a bit too keen on winning to keep his mount in check.

WORKOUTS:

• 10/26 DelM 4f 46.80  ◄ Bullet - Major speed at DelMar, 11.00 ANZ figure kicks into high gear here.

• 10/19 SA 4f 49.40

• 9/28 SA 5f 1:04.80 (slow work prior to 4th place finish in American Pharoah Stakes at SA)

• 9/21 SA 3f 36.20

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POST 6 LITMUS TEST ML: 15-1 Jose Ortiz Bob Baffert

BEST RPR: 102 Early/Presser

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 7-1-7-4-7   Speed = 8   Stamina = 11   Index = 0.88   Triads = 15-12-18

Set the pace in the G1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity before fading to third, and stalked the leaders in the G1 Del Mar Futurity before tiring to fourth; trained by Bob Baffert; $875,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga August yearling.

Special Note: Sire Nyquist won 2015 BC Juvenile, but that was at Keeneland.

ANALYSIS:  Subpar and unimpressive performances on two competing biases along with highly unimpressive configurations for this particular race keeping him firmly on the downside among this group. His 4.14 ANZ figure did nothing on the West Coast and his 3.00 Roman Figure did nothing on the East Coast. This horse is nothing like his sire Nyquist.

WORKOUTS:

• 10/25 SA 5f 1:00.20

• 10/18 SA 6f 1:12.40

• 9/28 SA 6f 1:12.60 (work prior to 3rd place in Breeders Futurity at Keeneland)

• 9/21 SA 4f 47.80 (same exact times with barn mate Desert Gate on this date and 9/28 also)

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POST 7 BRANT ML: 5/2 Flavien Prat Bob Baffert

BEST RPR: 109 Front Runner/Lead

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-4-7-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.87   Triads = 15-17-17

Controlled the G1 Del Mar Futurity wire-to-wire as the heavy favorite, setting killer early fractions enroute to a 1-length victory while undefeated in two starts; trained by Bob Baffert; blockbuster $3,000,000 OBS March 2YO purchase.

Special Note: Top of chart is massive stamina inheritance, while bottom of chart is massive speed inheritance.

ANALYSIS:  He's built incredibly well for this race. He's sitting in his own backyard. He's posting outstanding works in the lead up to this race. Not to mention, he has the added bonus of a stablemate in the gate right next to him, no doubt ready to step in at any time for a bit of aid. What truly stands out is that here we have a Gun Runner Colt who runs on the lead with the ability to post 21.88 at the 1/4 and 44.43 at the 1/2 pole, staying consistent and full of sustained energy to the wire. He is an excellent foe for Ted Noffey, who hasn't shown quite the early speed capability that Brant has displayed, Ted prefers to hold some back for the last late plunge. It's a 50/50 call between the two - do you prefer a speed driven lead who has consistent energy throughout, or do you like one who reserves a bit for the final drive? My thinking with taking a stand with Brant as the single on top boils down to the Gun Runner/Candy Ride aspect being more favorable to him at 8.5f than at 7f. His best Racing Post Figure is 109 and I foresee a major upgrade at 8.5f. I also see a strong possibility that Ted may get swept much faster at DelMar due to bias and high demand of keeping pace where his normal late reserve may get eaten up. Of course, the early pace could indeed slow down to match Ted's style but I'll take the gamble that these 2 year olds will be on fire to run right out of that gate. I'll take the slightly better odds, the magnificent West Coast workouts, the reliable Gun Runner/Candy Ride late stamina and single Brant on top in the super.

WORKOUTS: 

• 10/24 SA 6f 1:12.60

• 10/18 SA 6f 1:11.80 ◄

• 10/10 SA 6f 1:11.80 ◄ Bullet 1/4

• 10/3 SA 5f 1:01.20

• 9/27 SA 5f 59.80

• 9/21 SA 5f 1:01.80

• 8/30 DelM 6f 1:11.40 ◄ Bullet 1/3 (Work prior to win in DelMar Futurity at DelMar)

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POST 8 TED NOFFEY ML: 4/5 John Velazquez Todd Pletcher

BEST RPR: 117 ◄ Stalker/Presser

DP = 1-6-1-0-0 (8) DI = 15.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 19.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-9-9-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.14   Triads = 22-28-20

Undefeated in three starts, including dominant wins in the G1 Hopeful Stakes (by 8 1/2 lengths) and G1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (by 2 3/4 lengths) while pressing or setting the pace; trained by Todd Pletcher; $650,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase by Spendthrift Farm.

Special Note: Highest inbred Speed along with Massive & Incomparable Mare Profile and Triads of the field.

ANALYSIS: Best configurations, top and bottom, for this race at DelMar. Undisputed Best Racing Post Figure at 117 on the field. Sensational mares triads coupled with 15x inbred speed over stamina on top with loaded mare stamina on the bottom. Everything points to the obvious and advantaged beast of the field. There is no doubt that he is the horse to beat here. It is almost comical to even consider bypassing the easy single on top with this guy and simply moving on but three aspects compel me to go for the gamble on Brant. The first is the ultimate foreseeable ridiculous odds for Ted. Would it even be worth it? Second, his breeding is much more conducive to the DelMar track than what he has seen so far. Of course, that would make him prime to explode here, which he very well might do. But there is also a strong possibility that this very aspect would push him to run much faster early on this bias - which could affect that late consistent thunder of his negatively. He is sporting a 19.00 ANZ figure after all! Still, that's a 50/50 proposition either way she blows, and at such short odds, I'll take my shot and reserve for 2nd. The third reason is that Ted has NEVER EVER seen 44+ seconds at a half and when pitted against a Candy Ride boy who thrives on it, the gamble on going against the win here starts to seem a plausible one. It wouldn't be the first time I ripped up a ticket in the Juvenile by trying my luck against the obvious favorite! Most likely, I'll end up boxing the foursome and hope for an upset.

WORKOUTS:

• 10/19 Saratoga 4f 49.19

• 10/16 Saratoga 4f 49.40

• 9/27 Saratoga 4f 48.85 (Work prior to win in Breeders Futurity at Keeneland)

• 9/19 Saratoga 4f 49.39

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