POST 1 - FIERCENESS Top Pick ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 9.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-20-19

8/31/25 Pacific Classic 10f DelMar RPR = 125 Stalked, Won. Half: 45.84

8/02/25 Whitney 9f Saratoga RPR = 113 Stalked, 5th place Half: 47.07

6/07/25 Met Handicap 8f Saratoga RPR = 119 Pressed, 2nd place Half: 46.86

5/02/25 Alysheba 8.5f Churchill RPR = 121 Stalked, Won Half: 48.31

11/02/24 BC Classic 10f DelMar RPR = 124 Pressed, 2nd place Half: 44.96 ←

Fierceness posts his best ratings when running at the 10f distance. You can also say that he posts his best when running on the DelMar track as well. When comparing apples to apples, only Sierra Leone bests him at 128 when he beat him last year in the same race. Forever Young grabbed a 124 rating in the 10f Tokyo Daishoten back in December.

It is important to note that Fierceness stayed on par and in full form with that rating in his last 10f outing, now close to a year later. But Sierra Leone regressed at the 10f distance in the Jockey Club race (albiet at Saratoga, not DelMar) but remained on par while traveling only 9f in the Whitney.

Looking at last year's Classic, this guy stayed right with Derma Sotogake, flashing a 44.96 at the half and was relentless to the wire. Sierra Leone was able to reserve his energy for the late kick and between the two, Fierceness showed an incredible accomplishment by not fading with Derma. He was also able to stalk in a great spot with a 45.84 in the Pacific Classic and posted his best to date.

With all that said, Contrary Thinking was able to handle a 46.96 in the 10f Suburban on the lead. Since this occurred at Saratoga, he may be able to drop that slightly down at DelMar, maybe a second less if that, which puts Fierceness smack dab in the driver's seat yet again - right on target as he was in the Pacific Classic.

Now, you may say that Sierra Leone outsmarted him last year but things must be kept in perspective. Sierra Leone was given a 44.96 to run into while holding on to all of his energy. Fierceness had to have lost a bit of thunder down that stretch after sustaining that brutal pace - and yet still persisted, losing by only 1.5 lengths. Contrary Thinking is no Derma Sotogake that's for sure. He will run fast up front, but hard pressed to pull off a 44+ second half. And there goes the winning edge for Sierra.

The Breeder's Cup Classic, when held at DelMar, over the last 8 years with 3 editions, has never produced a winner with an index over 3.00, let alone at 5.00. There was Sierra Leone from last year at 2.00. Knicks Go in 2021 at 2.64 and Gun Runner from 2017 at 1.25. The same could be said for the Pacific Classic as well. Recent winners at 3.00 and under with Mixto, Arabian Knight, Flightline, Tripoli, Higher Power, etc. - EXCEPT FOR FIERCENESS. What a beast!

With Sovereignty out and looking at what appeared to be a wide open field at first has boiled down to cold hard facts. At the 10f distance at DelMar with what appears to be a certain fractional range for the lead and based on a horse who has given evidence that he has kept his form within those parameters and who is also slamming through his configurations, I must fall here for the top pick. None of the other competitors come close to matching these stats within these parameters. Not even Forever Young. He needs to break clean and get on with it. He's holding all of the cards.

POST 2 - BAEZA

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00

Mare Profile = 9-6-2-9-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.13   Triads = 17-17-17

9/20/25 PA Derby 9f Parx RPR = 120 Rear, Won. Half: 46.63

7/26/25 Jim Dandy 9f Saratoga RPR = 120 Stalked, 2nd place Half: 48.49

6/07/25 Belmont Stakes 10f Saratoga RPR = 111 Rear, 3rd place Half: 47.60

5/03/25 Kentucky Derby 10f Churchill RPR = 117 Rear, 3rd Half: 46.23

I do believe that I have chopped it down between two horses for the final main 4th horse. When you get down to the finish line with handicapping such a huge race, you end up searching for the negatives as ruthlessly as you can. There are two red flags to consider when it comes to this very talented horse. You must decide how you view it yourself - I can only offer opinions, it is ultimately up to you.

The first is his last race. Parx and DelMar run very similar. Both are very speedy courses that sweep speed demons to their limit. Some succeed when built with the correct balanced stamina - the others give in sooner than later because they can run faster on it, thereby making lose their energy quicker.

If you review the race results chart at Equibase for the PA Derby, you would see that starting with the 3rd place finisher leading all the way down to the 10th finisher, all of the short little comments next to each name read basically the same for every one of those competitors: "Faded, Weakened, Faded, Weakened, Lacked Rally, Tired, Wilted." Realistically, his visually impressive win was against Magnitude (and Goal Oriented somewhat) - the rest faded themselves out of competition all on their own.

The race he enters this time is filled to the brim with hard core Classic runners with the exception of just one - Contrary Thinking. This ensemble will not be fading at the mile pole.

The second red flag parks itself between the 10f Derby & the 10f Belmont. Note the difference between the 2 ratings above. In Kentucky, again half of his competitors were completely wiped out at the gate, and then some of them basically removed themselves due to the sloppy conditions that were against their build. In addition, again, the entire top tier was heading backwards by the 8f pole. What was remaining at the top of the stretch were those who traveled from way out it - completely unscathed. The rating shoots higher for the Derby because of the conditions, but when Baeza came back to a normal, unplagued, and fairly run 10f competition without any outside factors knocking his competition out or when the full field was fully engaged, he regressed all the way down to a 111. He ran the Belmont on his own.

I think Baeza is a very talented horse and he was part of the top 4 in my mind for the longest time. But when it comes down to it, I have to go with another for that 4th horse. Will I still be compelled to spend some bucks and throw him in at the bottom? Well, of course I will! The Breeders Cup comes but once a year - why not splurge!

POST 3 - NEVADA BEACH

DP = 2-2-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-6-7-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.00   Triads = 17-18-18

9/27/25 Goodward 9f San Anita RPR = 122 Stalked, Won. Half: 47.86

6/28/25 Los Al Derby 9f Los Al RPR = 115 Pressed, Won Half: 45.91

First time performing at the distance, but rest assured, he's going 10f. It will also be the first time he sees a full gate of ten, his norm is way under that, against only 3 to 5, and then up against an "astonishing" 6 in the Goodwood. He also doesn't fit the typical "forced" lead style, he's reserves his speed - not necessarily up with the lead tier due to such short fields. No, he'll be biding his time like the rest, Baffert understands fully about rabbits and this horse showed up very huge late in his last. What I also like very much about this guy is that he debuted at 8f, not the typical Baffert forced 6f speed demon maiden. This guy was debuting around the time some of the others were shipping to Churchill for the Derby. But he does have 4 consistent performances under his belt. He actually beat the 2 favorites in the Goodwood, Full Serrano and First Mission, last out which was a huge accomplishment for only his 4th race. Actually, a major accomplishment that proves he is the real deal.

This guy could be a live one, sitting in a nice post, competing in his town, and trained by one who always seems to pull off something magical. I can't say that I would bypass choosing one from "THE WORTHY CREW" of Mindframe or Baeza or Sierra Leone as the final 4th horse for the superfecta but I will say that it may be worth spending the additional dollars to spread this "longshot" horse across the board without relying on him in any single spot. But here's where I'm still on the fence about it and something to think about today, I could say the exact same thing about Antiquarian for different reasons. Both of those horses, sitting with very pretty long shot odds and both have a fine argument for spending the extra dollars in hopes of upsetting one of the "Worthy Crew".

POST 4 - CONTRARY THINKING Rating: ♥

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 4.33

Mare Profile = 4-9-4-11-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.91   Triads = 17-24-19

8/31/25 Jockey Club 10f Saratoga RPR = 94 Lead, nose dive to 7th Half: 46.96

8/02/25 Whitney 9f Saratoga RPR = N/A Eased, DNF Half: 47.07

6/29/25 Allowance 8f Aqueduct RPR = 115 Gate to Wire Half: 47.61

I'm not going to waste too much time here. This guy is a rabbit for his stablemate Sierra Leone. The irony is that every trainer who has an entry in this race will be using this rabbit as well. Each one of them is strategizing exactly where to position their horse and when to push the button based on this rabbit. My only hope is that one of them decides to take his spot and leave him in the dust. Either way, this horse has no business being in this race in the first place. Chad stated that he desires a "fair pace" - how about leaving it at a "fair race" that simply unfolds naturally. This is the Breeder's Cup Classic and it shouldn't be treated like a comedy show.

POST 5 - FOREVER YOUNG Superfecta Spots ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-6-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 16-15-19

11/01/25 Nippon TV Hai 9f Funabashi RPR = N/A Rear, Won Final: 1:52.20

4/05/25 Dubai World Cup 10f Meydan RPR = 116 Rear, 3rd place Final: 2:03.50

2/22/25 Saudi Cup 9f King Abdul RPR = 127 Midpack, Won Half: 48.09

12/29/24 Tokyo Daishoten 10f Oi RPR = 124 Stalked, Won Final: 2:04.90

11/02/24 BC Classic 10f DelMar RPR = 122 Stalked, 3rd place Half: 44.96

10/2/24 Japan Dirt Classic 10f Oi RPR = 123 Stalked, Won Final: 2:04.00

Went back and forth between Japan and Repole all week, and while I love Japanese horses and detest Repole, I still have to go with the latter. Even though Forever Young is a bonafide monster, I can only look at what is presented and take it at face value. Fierceness does need to make the most perfect break of his career from post one, but that can't override everything else. You can only hope that everything goes smoothly for each and every one of them.

10 months ago, Forever Young had a winning 10f race at Oi in the Tokyo Daishoten, a race in his own backyard. His rating was 124 for that race. Four months later he flies to Meydan for another 10f race (bit slower surface) and plummets to 116, grabbing a 3rd place trophy. That's a huge drop which was most likely caused by outside factors like a plane ride, different surroundings, different country, different bias, etc. - all of the same exact factors which will reappear at DelMar with the exception of the bias. Not looking for negatives, I'm just looking at facts.

What stands out the most with that is he did have those same factors appear in between those 2 races when he set sail for the Saudi Cup in Riyadh and posted the best rating he ever had. So what changed? What was the difference in his performances? The DISTANCE. 9f as opposed to 10f - on a faster bias.

Just like Journalism, this horse has a killer outward desire to cross the finish line, no matter what. He wants it. He'll push everything he has to get it. He likes a faster surface like DelMar which will no doubt aid to exceed what he did at 10f in Meydan in April. This gives him a clear spot down that lane and across the finish line way past the bulk of this field - but he has zero advantage at this distance along with all of those other hindrances thrown in. I love the horse and I was in his corner for at least a month, but I must go where the numbers are falling.

POST 7 - SIERRA LEONE

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 5-3-5-6-8   Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.67   Triads = 13-14-19

8/31/25 Jockey Club 10f Saratoga RPR = 120 Rear, 2nd place Half: 46.96

8/02/2025 Whitney 9f Saratoga RPR = 126 Rear, Won Half: 47.07

6/28/25 Stephen Foster 9f Churchill RPR = 118 Rear, 2nd place Half: 47.94

11/2/24 BC Classic 10f DelMar RPR = 128 Rear, Won Half: 44.96

No matter how I slice and dice this thing, I can't see past Fierceness, Forever Young and Journalism. Just the thought of their incredible past performances not following through into this race seems absurd to me. Since I play Superfectas, this means I have one main horse left to choose to fulfil that ticket (less throw in longshots).

I also see that Sierra Leone hit his best stride with a 124 E2 figure, the highest he ever saw, while running on the DelMar bias. That happens to be the one and only time this horse was on the West Coast. Candy Ride boys LOVE that track and he's coming back.

Does Sierra Leone, out of the blue, decide not to come flying towards that stretch and hit that board in this race? That's insane!!! The horse has had 13 races - from 8f to 10f - and has hit FIRST, SECOND or THIRD in every last one of them - consistently hitting that 100+ speed figure since the very beginning. That is a 100% trifecta and superfecta hit ratio. I can't see the horse waking up on Saturday morning and deciding that he just doesn't want to play today. Sometimes, just looking at things rationally without needing to peel away the layers makes sense. Sierra Leone is the 4th horse. Now, to configure the ticket with the greatest chance of profit will be the final stage of this whirlwind Breeders Cup Edition. And I wish good luck to all of you.

POST 8 - MINDFRAME

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 2.43

Mare Profile = 6-6-5-8-3   Speed = 12   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.21   Triads = 17-19-16 (2nd gen Tapit)

8/31/25 Jockey Club 10f Saratoga RPR = N/A Lost Rider Half: 46.96

6/28/25 Stephen Foster 9f Churchill RPR = 121 Pressed, Won Half: 47.94

5/03/25 CD Stakes 7f Churchill RPR = 119 Rear, Won Half: 45.12

3/01/25 GP Mile 8f Gulfstream RPR = 117 Stalked,Won Half: 46.61

7/20/25 Haskell Stakes 9f Monmouth RPR = 118 Midpack, 2nd place Half: 48.08

I can't screw around with this back and forth and I need to take a stand in selecting the proper 4th horse to round out this superfecta. Instead of looking at all of the positives with these majestic horses, I have to turn things into spotting the negatives and ending this. He's got a gorgeous set of firsts and seconds running straight down his PP sheet - all at 9f and under except for his tremendous 10f Belmont stakes run, but that was back on June 8th, 2024. Think about that for a moment. He hasn't seen a bit of distance in 18 months. The closest bias he has seen to DelMar was in his 8f Gulfstream Park Mile race. He may very well enjoy that DelMar track, but this time he has to travel 10f and that could be an issue on this slick track when he hits the stretch. For me, it came down to choosing between him and Journalism and I'm opting to side with the grit and determination as opposed to the Tapit factor. These horses are all fantastic, but you just can't use them all. Very tough race.

POST 9 - JOURNALISM Superfecta spots ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.57

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18

8/30/25 Pacific Classic 10f DelMar RPR = 118 Rear, 2nd place Half: 45.84

7/19/25 Haskell Stakes 9f Monmouth RPR = 123 Rear, Won Half: 48.08

6/07/25 Belmont Stakes 10f Saratoga RPR = 118 Midpack, 2nd place Half: 47.60

5/17/25 Preakness 8.5f Pimlico RPR = 121 Midpack, Won Half: 46.66

5/03/25 Kentucky Derby 10f Churchill RPR = 118 10th position, 2nd place Half: 46.23

Journalism is a hard knocking beast with determination that is through the roof but he was never fully a 10f horse. Those ratings are the most consistent at the distances above all in this field. As you can see, he runs better at 9f and below, however, he has enough to still be competitive at 10f. He will be right at home back here at DelMar and his drive has not subsided one bit. He is not as fierce as Fierceness when it comes to 10f speed but he has a will and determination to see every race he runs through to the end. I'll be spreading him underneath on the super.

Written out in black and white, this guy drops consistently to a 118 rating at 10f and crosses the 120 threshold under 10f. Competitive like a Jaguar, but he lacks what Fierceness has at 10f. It would be a different story at 9f but it's the Classic! I would never leave this guy's fight and consistent grit off of any superfecta bet. He'll be there like clockwork.

POST 10 - ANTIQUARIAN

DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 6-5-5-6-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 16-16-18

8/31/25 Jockey Club 10f Saratoga RPR = 120 Stalked, Won Half: 46.96

7/04/25 Suburban 10f Saratoga RPR = 116 Pressed, 2nd place Half: 47.83

5/31/25 Blame - G3 9f Churchill RPR = 114 Pressed, 2nd place Half: 46.82

This guy has no problem moving from bias to bias and that is commendable for a 2.50 horse. He also hauls ass in the middle of his races. He doesn't reserve his speed in the normal fashion til the end, he explodes with it mid-race. It's very strange and it seems to work. He actually distributes his energy very similarly to Journalism and lately, he has been very successful in doing so.

Here sits a 15 to 1 ml Longshot who is completely ignored from all of the Classic conversations. One who had two back to back 10f exceptional races where he won one and unfortunately bobbled the break to see himself miss first by a nose in the other. Both races where he took completely different early positions. He has not raced in two months, however, he has not been let off with the training. Do you take a shot and spend some extra money on an up and coming Baffert boy who has yet to perform at 10f or do you take that extra shot with a horse who slammed 2 in a row and posted an RPR of 120 while doing it. The clock is ticking to make that decision. And it has been made - it's this guy.

Superfecta Players:

Fierceness first with Forever Young, Journalism, Sierra Leone.

Longshots to consider: Antiquarian