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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2022 Kentucky Derby Analysis

Listed in order of Highest Chef Speed Inheritance to Highest Chef Stamina Inheritance.

Mares are taken into account separately.

3.10 and Over

4.00 TAWNY PORT Pioneerof the Nile – Livi Makenzie (Mucho Uno) Grandsire: Empire Maker

Chefs = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.90

Mares = 4-7-5-9-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.77 Triads = 16-21-20

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Trainer: Brad Cox

Balance Comparisons: Thunder Gulch, Spectacular Bid

Combined: 10.4f - based on additional Mare influence

ANZ Index: 4.00 - Same

Sloppy Track Outlook: He's a tough one because he is obviously very split. 50-50

Analysis: I am revamping his prior analysis. After working more on him last night and re-reading items that I have posted about him prior, along with the following additional reasons, the update is in order. How many times can I see something one day, write about it, and then dismiss it to my detriment. I won't do that this year. His numbers are killer for the Derby. He sits at the very top of the list, complete opposite spectrum from Epicenter, and he has the distance. He has given evidence along the trail (maybe too much evidence) that he can and will demonstrate that stamina on the surfaces he has run on. He did not fire in the Risen Star, however, he was shuffled back and made up a bit. He proved himself a player on dirt in the Lexington but it was a mild performance. If he was to gain in his second performance on dirt, he certainly has the distance and the capability but his gate stole his opportunity to shine. He wont get steadied or bumped, which is a good thing, but he just doesnt have the speed to gain quick enough to compete with the top tier. No good.

4.00 ZOZOS Munnings – Papa’s Forest (Forestry) Grandsire: Speightstown

Chefs = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80

Mares = 8-5-7-5-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.08 Triads = 20-17-19

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco Trainer: Brad Cox

Balance Comparisons: Venetian Way, Always Dreaming, Audible

Combined: 10.1f - based on additional mare influence

ANZ Index: 7.00 (Addition of Storm Cat twice)

Sloppy Track Outlook: He will definitely gain additional lengths on a sloppy track, taking him up a bit further than 10.1f. He is much more advantaged and suited for a sloppy track (or a faster track) with his breeding.

Analysis: This guy also has a very nice set of numbers both top and bottom and he is sitting in the highly advantaged category. He is flashy and has been very consistent with his speed both on the track and his workouts. The problem with this guy is that his high 4.00 on top gets weighted even more by the mares 1.08 and this leaves Zozos with an optimum under 10f. This leaves no room for error on his part which is almost an impossibility on a 20 horse field. He has a couple of major strikes against him – points total under 10, Mare balance tilted to speed, triads weighted on the wrong side, no wins outside of a maiden or OC race, did not run as a 2 year old, and very light on experience. He tried to wire the 9.5f track and fell short – tack on another ½ furlong to that race and Rattle N Roll would have passed him. Since this speed category is packed with talent, I see too many negatives here that go against would should be a highly advantaged contender. His huge saving grace is that he did not appear to look like an allowance horse below Epicenter and was able to kick home with a bit of an extra punch at the 9.5f mark. Because of that, I see no harm in using this horse underneath and low. His 2nd tier credentials could enable him to stagger in at the front of that 2nd tier. I see a few better choices, but if you are going to pack the bottom, he has a shot there, but I do believe a win here is an outrageous thought on a clean track. He will gain lengths on rainy day, so adding an extra spot a bit higher up on that ticket would be warranted. I’m not thrilled with it, but as an add on to the bottom based on his determination may be a good idea. I will be using him on a sloppy track, those numbers hold an advantage. On a clean track, maybe a 4th place nod.

3.80 WHITE ABARRIO Race Day – Catching Diamonds (Into Mischief) Grandsire: Tapit

Chefs = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75

Mares = 9-5-2-7-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-14-17

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Trainer: Joseph Saffie Jr.

Balance Comparisons: Tiz the Law, Tacitus, Alysheba

Combined: 2nd generation Tapit - Most likely 11.5f+

ANZ Index: 5.40 (Addition of More than Ready - additional Brilliant & Intermediate speed)

Sloppy Track Outlook: Never competed on wet track but conquered fast tracks. With the extreme influence of Into Mischief, his high indexes, additional speed influence from More Than Ready and the evidence shown from other speedy Tapit offspring, his potential remains the same on both track surfaces.

Analysis: One shy of an undefeated career which occurred at Churchill Downs traveling 8.5f in the KY Jockey Club. His third place in that race could arguably be his best performance, outweighing his spectacular wins. He came out of the 10 gate and easily got himself up front and on that rail, displaying beautiful speed in the early stages, securing his position. He found himself trapped nearing the far turn and almost stopped, regained momentum and continued on down the stretch. The combination of Tapit over Into Mischief is one thing, but the horse must exhibit that he can latch on to those credentials, which White Abarrio has consistently done – under his optimum. His additional inherited speed outweighs Essential Quality and even though his performances were not as flashy early on, the fact remains that this guy is getting the job done when he needs to and he is holding an extreme highly advantaged Derby set-up. Major Speed + Major Stamina = Major Derby Contender. He is sitting in the top most advantaged speed category with more than enough stamina to compete down the stretch. A definite contender for the superfecta and I will stick with his configurations for my ticket.

3.80 BARBER ROAD Race Day – Encounter (Southern Image) Grandsire: Tapit

Chefs = 3-4-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.83

Mares = 10-3-3-6-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-12-17

St. Simon: In Reality → War Relic Trainer: John Ortiz

Balance Comparisons: Tiz the Law, Tacitus, Alysheba

Combined: 2nd generation Tapit - Most likely 11.1f+

ANZ Index: 5.40 (Prominent Non-Chef - More than Ready - additional Brilliant & Intermediate speed)

Sloppy Track Outlook: Came in 2nd in the Smarty Jones traveling 8f, gaining position from 6th to 2nd. Just like White Abarrio, with the extreme speed influence, the 3.80 index and evidence from other speedy Tapit offspring, he will retain advantage on a wet track.

Analysis: Another Tapit boy with very nice configurations similar to White Abarrio but there is one glaring difference. With Tapit’s extraordinary stamina presence in his offspring, the colt must counteract it all with a ton of inbred speed. As much as he could possibly grab because Tapit overtakes the show. The entire chart still needs to be activated in conjunction with that stamina. This is what separates them and their ability to compete at 10f at Churchill with the obvious stamina that they display in the Belmont. Even though it is not by much, the fact remains that in Barber Road’s case, the mares are stronger on the stamina side. This is not the case with White Abarrio or Charge It. In addition, this guy has only won as a two year old and has not been able to display a will to win along the trail. No extra push to be at the wire first while winding down late. Abarrio may wind down as well, but his nose is out front of his competitors, displaying the will to win which is so important for the Derby. This horse does not like to expend himself early which will leave him in quite a traffic jam. While sitting in this highly advantaged category, the lack of class is not coinciding with his chart credentials, so a stand must be taken. On a clean track, I will pass.

3.44 MESSIER Empire Maker – Checkered Past (Smart Strike) Grandsire: Unbridled

Chefs = 12-12-14-0-2 (40) DI = 3.44 CD = 0.80

Mares = 7-4-1-8-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.76 Triads = 12-13-17

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Trainer: The Baffert Syndicate

Balance Comparisons: Orb, Winning Colors, Forward Pass

Combined: 10.25f - Mares generally do not come into play with 40 total chefs points, advantage

ANZ Index: 3.67 (Additional Intermediate Speed from Seeking the Gold)

Sloppy Track Outlook: Without a shadow of a doubt, this horse is a must use on a sloppy track. Straight across.

Analysis: The best configurations in this top category go to Messier and White Abarrio and they couldn’t be any more opposite while sitting in this highly advantaged category. Baffert aside and dealing only with the horse’s configurations, his chefs numbers hit repeatedly in the Kentucky Derby decade after decade. If you don’t believe me, please refer to “The Power of the Packed Profile” and scroll to the bottom and refer to the chart. Even though his combined configurations give him exactly 10.25f, his packed 40 point profile takes complete charge, rain or shine. His advantage skyrockets even higher on a wet track. Baffert or no Baffert, Messier’s actual breeding is aligning with his style and his performances, which is quite the feat coming out of that barn. I only recall one other recent charge of Baffert’s who had breeding that matched his performances and was not a speedy clone – Nadal. For the sake of the innocent horse and his future well-being, let us hope that he is left alone with his chart and allowed to run his race. Major contender in the rain and still within the top 4 on a clean track.

3.36 RICH STRIKE Keen Ice - Gold Strike (Smart Strike) Grandsire: Curlin

Chefs = DP = 5-8-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36 CD = 0.75

Mares = Mare Profile = 7-1-6-9-7 Speed = 8 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.72 Triads = 14-16-22

St. Simon: Smart Strike → Mr. Prospector → Teddy Trainer: Eric Reed

Balance Comparisons: Winning Colors

Combined: 10.8f

ANZ Index: 3.36 same

Sloppy Track Outlook: Very poor chance on a sloppy track.

Analysis: This guy has very nice configurations and at first I thought we would have yet another possibly entered that would need to be highly considered. After further review, and based on his balance coupled with his performances, this is not the race for him AT THIS TIME. To put this in perspective, this horse is built very similarly to Vino Rosso. High 3.57 chef index with triads 10-14-19 that lean to the far extreme. Both have running styles that correspond and both with an 8 to 9 point spread in mare speed/stamina balance. Fantastic configurations that caught me with Vino in 2018 but will not catch me this time. Vino's was a sloppy track so he had his excuse but even a fast clean track is not conducive to this particular race. The necessary inbred speed is not there to compete in this race and the Past performances are also in line with that. His running style will prove to be too far back. He is built with an advantage to hit the board in under spots in the Belmont Stakes and as he matures and learns how to spread his energy and lean upon his chefs speed influence (which is being overtaken by the mares heavy stamina dominance) he could become quite the champion like Vino Rosso. He will actually enjoy the further distance and if it is not raining, he has every chance to grab a very minor piece in this race just like Mo Donegal. At least his distance capability is not borderline like Mo Donegal, however he will be much further back from the top tier and herein lies his disadvantage with his breeding. If you do like him, rest assured that his endurance is more than sufficient, it is his chefs speed numbers that would need to come to the forefront and appear this very week. If you like Mo Donegal's chances of closing into the speed, you must consider this guy then as well. He is sporting much more stamina than Mo Donegal. I actually like this horse 100x more than Taiba - at least he has inbred speed in him. Not a bad shot in bottom slots.

3.00 Even

3.00 PIONEER OF MEDINA Pioneer of the Nile - Lights of Medina (Eskendereya) Grandsire: EmpireMaker

Chefs = DP = 3-3-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mares = 6-3-7-8-5 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-18-20

St. Simon: 9.38% Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Balance Comparisons: Justify

Combined: 10.3f to 10.5f (based on additional mare influence + Thunder Gulch)

ANZ Index: 2.60 (additional Classic stamina from Thunder Gulch)

Sloppy Track Outlook: 50-50

Analysis: Late addition who is boasting very nice Derby configurations. They are definitely board-hit material numbers. He has the distance. Now that he is on the field, more scrutiny was in order. There is a strong possibility that Todd was being slick here. It would appear that his make-up would be better suited on a fast track and yet his preps were both at Fairgrounds. His Gulfstream performance not on the fast dirt, but on AWS. Why didn't he opt for the test on the faster surface? His performances could be very deceiving with a portrayal of a colt running against the grain. He will be up with the pace and he certainly can cover the ground, but his class sets him below par. I think there is a good chance that he will feel more at home and perform better at Churchill. If the track is playing fast, I would be hard-pressed to toss these configurations, the triads are nice with that 3.00 index and I see him more like an Honor A.P. type but when his prominent non-chef and additional nod to the mares is added, he slides to the stamina side, leaving him in limbo, more "average" category than 3.00 category. This is why the sloppy track side is at 50/50. I am torn here because the numbers are Derby-worthy and board hit material and he could finally be at home on the right bias, that means, he could put on his best show to date. I will leave him on the side and seriously consider lower board hit spots. I can not toss those numbers yet.

3.00 MO DONEGAL Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown (Pulpit) Grandsire: Indian Charlie

Chefs = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mares = 9-0-6-8-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 15-14-20

St. Simon: 10.16% Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Balance Comparisons: Super Saver (balance, not style)

Combined: 10f exact

ANZ Index: 3.00 - same

Sloppy Track Outlook: Between his style of running and the fact that he excelled in the Remsen and the Wood Memorial, both at Aqueduct and he had a hard time connecting at Gulfstream Park against Speed types on a speedier track, leads me to believe that a sloppy track will not be to his liking. Speed up front will excel, so his style is against him and his bias preference is completely in line with his low .63 index and the 5 point spread leaning to the inbred stamina from his mares.

Analysis: I’m just going to throw a name out there and after I do, I am sure everything will make complete sense when it comes to this particular Pletcher colt. You see, Todd had quite the similar set-up with another colt back in 2020. The horse performed basically the same way as Mo Donegal, had the same running style, the same type of breeding, numbers and balance. He took basically the same path on the same tracks along the trail. Posting half-decent performances prior to the Derby, starting their careers at Belmont Park, moving on to the advantages that their type of breeding and style gave them on the Aqueduct dirt, and failing to show significant speed on the slicker tracks of Gulfstream (and Parx). Both horses tilted to extreme stamina from their mares without the balance of serious speed that is a necessary component for success in Kentucky. Both horses sitting with optimums between 10.1 and 10.25f. Mo Donegal is the twin of Bourbonic, who came in 13th place on the fast track at Churchill Downs. He gained in position, however, the track was not conducive to his breeding and nor will it be for Mo Donegal. The probability that Churchill Downs is souped up fast on Derby Day is extremely high, in addition, a sloppy track is always a threat. With all of that said, my inclination is to give him a very small nod at the far end of the Super in case there is plenty of air separating the top tier.

3.00 UN OJO Laoban – Risk a Chance (A.P. Indy) Grandsire: Uncle Mo

Chefs = 3-6-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mares = 12-0-4-3-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-7-17

St. Simon: 10.16% Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

Balance Comparisons: None

Combined: 9.45f

ANZ Index: 3.89 (Additional Intermediate Speed from Seeking the Gold)

Sloppy Track Outlook: At Aqueduct, traveling 9f, he ran a very nice race going from 11th position to finish 2nd. It was extremely slow, however, he was still able to move on it regardless of ending Figures. I would assume this ability is coming directly from his mares dominant 12 in the Brilliant slot of his profile, which is obviously the way he is leaning.

Analysis: This guy is built exactly like State of Honor from 2017. That horse came in 2nd in the Florida Derby and completely bombed in Kentucky, coming in 19th place after tiring at the one mile pole. The reason for this is because of the mares entire profile. Bookended on either side of the spectrum. I will say exactly what I said in State of Honor's analysis - This guy needs to pick a side and pick it fast! But he still won't make it either way. It's too split in half and that 7 in the middle of the triads will remain just like State of Honor's did along with the vast amount of past contenders who attempted it as well and failed. A split profile is a tough proposition at 10f. He can't run away from that. So on Derby day, just past the far turn, keep an eye out for a jockey wearing green and navy silks lost somewhere in the middle of the track. You will see this jockey trying desperately to thwart the backwards motion. This frenzied action will be completely in vain. Un Ojo has 9.5f in him and even that is pushing it. This horse has no chance in this race, sunshine or rain.

3.00 CHARGE IT Tapit – I’ll Take Charge (Indian Charlie) Grandsire: Pulpit

Chefs = 4-9-10-1-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mares = 13-3-2-5-6 Speed = 16 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.63 Triads = 18-10-13

St. Simon: Ruby Sippers → Mahmoud Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Balance Comparisons: Essential Quality, Tapwrit, Creator, Constitution → with more Inbred Mare Speed added

Combined: TAPIT - at least 11.5f

ANZ Index: 3.67 (Additional Intermediate Speed from Dehere)

Sloppy Track Outlook: He should be just fine on a sloppy track with that extraordinary amount of additional mare speed added.

Analysis: This maiden winner hit the gate in the Florida Derby, lost his preferred lead spot, but still carried on with class to compete against 2 highly polished Graded Stakes Winners. The cut-off with Tapit offspring is 3.00 for the Kentucky Derby but the extremely high amount of mare speed, as depicted in that 1.63 mare index is not something to disregard. He would have a hard time for a win, but a board-hit is in his wheel-house. His 8f maiden win by 8-1/2 lengths at Gulfstream was the main stepping stone and evidence that this guy was not getting zapped with over-bearing Tapit Stamina while sporting that 3.00 index. Even with the sparse career of only 3 races under his belt, he is proving to be more on course with an Essential Quality 3.00 type as opposed to a Tapwrit 3.00 type. The fact that he was able to recover from his bad start and compete in a Grade One race on a speedy surface points to a player who is well on his way to becoming a potential superstar, just like Essential Quality. The inexperience of only 3 races is one thing, but at least this horse competed on full fields of 10+ entries, unlike the over-hyped Taiba. This is one "bad ass" horse who displayed a will to win against experienced powerhouse competitors. He deserves every bit of a nod on a superfecta ticket. He is built correctly for this race, especially because he has a ton more inbred mare speed than the normal 3.00 Tapit player. He showed determination and a will to win while losing his preferred spot which is showing again, that he is favoring an Essential Quality type with the ability to run from anywhere on that track. It is rare but the evidence supports it from this guy. Charge It has slowly become my #1 Longshot and this is 100% because he has pure Tapit Stamina (12f+ ability) coupled with Major inbred mare speed. This is the combination that balances the horse with excessive qualities on both sides of the spectrum. The type that shines in the Kentucky Derby. The big worry is the inexperience, but I really like his set-up so I'll keep him.

2.00 to 2.90

HAPPY JACK Oxbow – Tapitstry (Tapit) Grandsire: Awesome Again

Chefs = 2-8-11-0-1 (22) DI = 2.38 CD = 0.45

Mares = 7-2-3-11-4 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.86 Triads = 12-16-18

St. Simon: 8.20% Trainer: Doug O'Neill

Balance Comparisons: Country House, Sunday Silence, Genuine Risk

Past Belmont Winner Comparisons: Tonalist, Palace Malice, Union Rags, Ruler on Ice, Editor’s Note, Sir Winston, among others

Combined: 10.6f (However, Tapit Stamina Takes Precedence) Most Likely 12f+

ANZ INDEX: 2.38 - Same

Sloppy Track Outlook: Never competed on a sloppy track and based on the 49 combined lengths he lost by on the slick track at Santa Anita in 3 races, coupled with his undeniable superior outlook for the Belmont Stakes, easy toss on a sloppy track.

Analysis: If there were a Belmont Stakes Futures Pool available, this guy would be one heck of a bet. Every outward sign for complete Belmont success is listed right here. He is sporting a very favorable 2.38 balanced Belmont chef index. The mares pass on that 6 point spread between the speed/stamina balance. The drastic incline of the triads. Oxbow as the Sire and second generation Tapit. Wow! I do not believe there could be a better specimen that checks off every box when it comes to his numbers and his chart with regards to the Belmont Stakes. Just because his configurations and chart are holding everything for the 12f race, it does not mean it checks off the requirements that are necessary to compete at Churchill Downs. Two separate races with two separate advantages. It is extremely obvious by his PP sheet on that slick track at Santa Anita, coupled with his breeding, that this horse needs a much longer and fairer track to compete on. With the high probability of a fast or even sloppy track on Derby day, this will play against him on May 7th. His entire "average and balanced" set-up and the main characters within his chart are pulling him to New York, not to Kentucky. Happy Jack is a major player, but not for this Triple Crown race – He is a Belmont Boy – a major Belmont Boy.

ZANDON Upstart – Memories Prevail (Creative Cause) Grandsire: Flatter

Chefs = 2-3-9-0-0 (14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.50

Mares = 13-0-1-5-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.13 Triads = 14-6-15

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Trainer: Chad Brown

Balance Comparisons: None.

Combined: 9.5f

ANZ Index: 2.56 (Addition of Storm Cat in 4th Generation)

Sloppy Track Outlook: Never raced on a sloppy track. Possible ability from the mares, but realistically, the way his numbers shake out, we're at a 50-50 shot here.

Analysis: With a 2.11 index, we must have stand-out and consistent performances along the way. He showed nice speed ability in his 6f maiden win (that coming directly from the 13 points in his brilliant mares profile). Then, he went on to compete in three consecutive 9f races. Each one produced non-consistent pace figures with his energy scattered all over the place. Somehow, the horse manages to hit the board. The closest race he has run so far as it pertains to probable early pace for the Derby is the Risen Star and even then, he will need to greatly up his early game in order to compete. He will never get away with a 61 or a 79 or even an 89 first call figure and if does try it, he will be running 8 wide at 3/4 pole. His combined optimum is short and the only way this guy gets yet another board hit, is if the second tier is a block back. His type of configurations have not produced a winner, the mares triads are a disaster, and this guy has no true style to grab onto. He belongs in the Pennsylvania Derby, not the Kentucky Derby. Still unsure how he fits in with all of this widespread appeal.

SUMMER IS TOMORROW Summer Front – Always Tomorrow (Badge of Silver) Grandsire: War Front

Chefs = 3-4-5-2-0 (14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.57

Mares = 7-7-6-6-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 8 Index = 1.69 Triads = 20-19-14

St. Simon: 32.24% Trainer: Bhupat Seemar

Balance Comparisons: None.

Combined: 9.3f to 9.8f

ANZ Index: 2.11 - same

Sloppy Track Outlook: Will most likely gain extra lengths.

Analysis: This horse came in 2nd in the UAE Derby. That track caters to colts in the 2.70 and under category and to stamina. The fact that he was winding down in the late stages of the race is not surprising based on his incredible and saturated mare speed figures. The mares numbers are set-up completely backwards, however they do compliment his chefs and balance him. In his case, the stamina is coming from his chefs and the speed is coming from his mares. Back in 2018, there was a similar entry named My Boy Jack who had a balance like this, just to give an example. My Boy Jack was a rear runner, and he managed to come in 5th in the Derby. Summer has the same time of balance but he runs up front. The pace may be above what is used to but there is no way to tell for sure - no beyers. From his post, he will be up with the advantaged set, out of trouble. If he gets the lead and Johnny V is content with that on Messier, the pace may not be as fast as most anticipate. He will last longer and most likely get to the top of the stretch. He could secure 4th from that spot. If Mike Smith is ordered by Baffert to get that lead on Tabia by any means possible, Summer is toast before the stretch. It depends on how you see the race unfolding if you decide to give this guy a spot in 4th n your tickets.

TAIBA Gun Runner – Needmore Flattery (Flatter) Grandsire: Candy Ride

Chefs = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50

Mares = 5-3-6-8-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.63 Triads = 14-17-22

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Trainer: The Baffert Syndicate

Balance Comparisons: I'll Have Another, Middleground, Assault, Street Sense, Seattle Slew, Bold Forbes

Combined: 11.5f

ANZ Index: 2.50 (additional Intermediate speed from Storm Cat 4th generation)

Sloppy Track Outlook: Built completely wrong for a sloppy track. But who knows when they're attached to Baffert.

Analysis: I'm sure everyone read the extra long negative analysis I had here. I still see it that way but after a week away from it, I have to let reality take precedence. All who have been at this site for a long time knows exactly how I feel about Baffert's clones. I do not like to do analysis on them because none of it ever makes sense. It should be no different with this guy. Common sense holds no bearing, history holds no bearing and the configurations hold no bearing when they come out of Baffert's barn. Inexperience aside, the running style of this horse does not coincide with his breading. I see no extra outside speed influence as is the case with Epicenter. I do not trust this entire scenario, nor do I trust the owner or the connections. I dont even trust Mike Smith anymore. I refuse to sit back and spend money on another Kentucky Derby to watch it roll down the drain, missing by one again because of that criminal trainer and that entire Zendan Syndicate. At the very least, this horse actually has the distance, where he doesn't coincide is on the inherited speed side. The Derby demands balance. Smith is going to charge to the front with this 2 time winner and Baffert gets the exacta. It absolutely sickens me to have to spread on a horse that has only competed against 11 horses in his entire career and one who should come in dead last but also has the potential to win because he isnt running to his breeding. I hate it, so I will take out that huge insurance policy, spreading him in every spot across the board. What is even worse is that bum and his clones were supposed to be banned from Churchill. As if that was really going to happen.

Under 2.00

SMILE HAPPY Runhappy – Pleasant Smile (Pleasant Tap) Grandsire: Supersaver

Chefs = 2-6-5-2-1 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.38

Mares = 7-4-1-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 12-13-14

St. Simon: 7.81% Trainer: Kenny McPeek

Balance Comparisons: None.

Combined: 10.25f

ANZ Index: 1.91 - same

Sloppy Track Outlook: I feel safe presuming that Smile Happy will love the sloppy track based on the 1.00 mare index, speedy sire Runhappy and sloppy Derby Winner grand-sire Supersaver.

Analysis: Smile Happy has 10.25f distance capability but based on the high caliber breeding found elsewhere in this category, his mare’s numbers will come into play in a huge way. They are wholly inferior and they do not work in the Kentucky Derby. This is a very nice horse but he did not step past his mare’s numbers along the way and this was something he absolutely needed to do. I like this guy much better on a sloppy surface and he may have just enough to be competitive under the top tier on a clean track. Those triads are horribly under par but other factors surrounding his chart could intervene. Tough call.

TIZ THE BOMB Hit It a Bomb – Tiz the Key (Tiznow) Grandsire: War Front

Chefs = 3-5-10-2-0 (20) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.45

Mares = 10-5-2-6-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.35 Triads = 17-13-14

St. Simon: 66.81% Trainer: Kenny McPeek

Balance Comparisons: None.

Combined: 9.25 to 9.5f

ANZ Index: 2.14 (additional Intermediate speed from Danehill Dancer)

Sloppy Track Outlook: A snowball has a better chance in hell than Tiz the Bomb on a sloppy track.

Analysis: I’ll make it short because I went berserk in Taiba’s long analysis. Between his mare’s numbers and his bias preference, this guy is not built for the Kentucky Derby. The incredible St. Simon percentage can’t overcome his obvious disadvantage here. His mare's backwards set-up shrinks his endurance capability, especially on a speedy track. Toss.

CYBERKNIFE Gun Runner – Awesome Flower (Flower Alley) Grandsire: Candy Ride

Chefs = 0-2-6-0-0 (8) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.25

Mares = 3-2-5-12-6 Speed = 5 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.45 Triads = 10-19-23

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Trainer: Brad Cox

Balance Comparisons: Animal Kingdom, Funny Cide

Combined: 12.6f

ANZ Index: 2.33 (Additional Intermediate Speed from Storm Cat, 4th generation)

Sloppy Track Outlook: Most likely, based on the mares heavy tilt to stamina, he won't like it.

Analysis: There is something to say about this type of layout. This guy has 12.6f potential capability which is on par with the type of stamina that Epicenter is holding. The big difference is that there is barely a drop of inbred speed in both the Brilliant and Intermediate slots in both profiles. That speed is an absolute must for this particular race. Extreme speed capability with the proper endurance. Both in his configurations and in his pace figures, that outward speed is missing. There are some Derby Editions where this type finds extreme advantage, but they were more prevalent prior to the change in the Derby Point System. There were more sprinters involved which allowed this type to hit by default. (Basically the same idea as Taiba's stamina beating out a sprinter who didn't have the endurance). It’s not like that anymore and speed has definitely found the upper hand. This guy had a recent workout at Churchill Downs. He ran a bullet in 1:12.20 and another at 1:11.20 and although that may sound quite common-place, it is not for a horse built like this. He had his two short maiden races both at Churchill Downs and he displayed speed to compete against his breeding and with a disadvantage among the field. I am looking for 8 contenders. The #1 criteria for the Derby is the distance capability and that fourth horse will be holding that criteria. He’s staying on my tickets because I believe his pace figures were affected by unfavorable track biases and he will thrive back at Churchill. I'll use him underneath, but sparingly now.

CROWN PRIDE Reach the Crown - Emmy’s Pride (King Kamehameha) Grandsire: Special Week

Chefs = 5-0-7-2-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.57

Mares = 9-3-2-10-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.05 Triads = 14-15-17

St. Simon: Sunday Silence → Mahmoud Trainer: Koichi Shintani

Balance Comparisons: Smarty Jones, Grindstone, Ferdinand

Combined: approx 10.3f (Overseas Colt)

ANZ Index: 1.44 (additional stamina from Sunday Silence)

Sloppy Track Outlook: He will be fantastic on a sloppy track, Country House Style!

Analysis: I have all the evidence I need. This horse was flying up the middle of the sloppy track in the Hyacinth, went from dead last with a full field of 14, picking off horses one by one. On paper, his 6th place is very deceiving. He was coming like a freight train - only 1/2 second off the winner. That is speed that ran out of track. His display of his stamina and endurance was in full view in the UAE Derby and his speed was revealed on that sloppy track in Tokyo. Obvious he can travel as well as he's been jet-setting for quite awhile and putting in nice performances on different continents. He's been in Kentucky and acclimated in a much more sensical manner than normal. We have a very serious foreigner on our hands here who has the Derby Distance, the necessary outward display of speed, stamina, and balance and he looks very sharp. I will be using him all over my tickets while ditching a few of the second tier guys. Crown Pride is class and talent and a very serious player. They brought him here to win.

CLASSIC CAUSEWAY Giant's Causeway - Private World (Thunder Gulch) Grandsire: Storm Cat

Chefs = DP = 3-2-23-0-0 (28) DI = 1.43 CD = 0.29

Mares = 4-6-5-10-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 15-21-20

St. Simon: 45.9%

Balance Comparisons: Grindstone, Spend a Buck

Combined: 11.25f

ANZ Index: 1.84 (Additional speed from Storm Cat)

Sloppy Track Outlook: Doubtful.

Analysis: Very Nice numbers and very nice set-up but the facts remain: He did not beat class to get here. He had zero competition at Tampa Bay and breezed those prep wins. When faced with real competition, he folded at the half way point. I'm not a fan. Do you ditch the gorgeous numbers? It is always hard to do that but I do not see a change in his bias preference happening any time soon.

SIMPLIFICATION Not This Time – Simply Confection (Candy Ride) Grandsire: Giant’s Causeway

Chefs = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

Mares = 2-11-4-11-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 17-26-18

St. Simon: Blushing Groom → Blanford Trainer: Antonio Sano

Balance Comparisons: Monarchos, Pleasant Colony, Spend a Buck, Silver Charm, Canonero II, Needles, Unbridled, Whirlaway

Combined: 10.7f → Without the obvious extra Not This Time extraordinary Speed Influence factored in.

ANZ Index: 2.11 (additional Intermediate speed from Storm Cat, 3rd generation)

Sloppy Track Outlook: Based on his sire and the way he took to Gulfstream, Yes on a sloppy track.

Analysis: Those who have been following for years know that it took a bit of time to figure out the “Tapit Stamina” influence as it pertained to the affect on the numbers. It took some time to also figure out the “Into Mischief heavy speed Influence” affect as well. This is because we only had one or two a year and then finally there was enough data to make proper judgements. Both of those judgements were spot on. Now we have a new sire, Not This Time. It is apparent to me, based on the high amount of his sons that were on the Derby Trail this year, including In Due Time, Howling Time, Chasing Time, Simplification and Epicenter, that he is passing through OVERWHELMING SPEED. In Simpli's case, preference on Gulfstream bias, 16+ length win in 6f race, killer workouts. (I believe the sire is passing so much speed through that its affect on Epicenter's configurations is so obvious and over the top - its ridiculous.) Major Major speed influence. I believe Simpli's 10.7f combined distance is actually quite less than that. I believe his 10.7f stamina will be watered down because of the sire's influence. How much, I cannot say. This sire is new but his obvious influence is overwhelmingly apparent. In addition, since Sano never gave Simpli the opportunity to either work on his stamina or even display his stamina off of that Gulfstream track is a major negative. I believe he worked the wrong side. The reason why Tapit's boys were at Gulfstream is because the stamina is a known entity - they are put there to work on their speed side. This is exactly how it should be. Unfortunately, the opposite should have been done for Simpli but it wasn't. In addition, the one time where his full stamina would have presented some type of evidence is in his first maiden on AWS. He failed on AWS and then exploded on the speedy track bias at 6f by 16 lengths acting like a sprinter. This is Not This Time's over-the-top speed influence. This is significant. When working out the numbers early in the season, judgements are made based on those configurations and then we look at the performances to see if the horse is on track. This colt is the ONLY ONE on the entire field that we have NOT been given any evidence that supports the 10.7f. You can not make assumptions based on fancy workouts. It doesn't work that way. With all that said, I have major reservations concerning this horse's true optimum based on numbers alone. I say that with full conviction because what I do see is pushing his numbers to the far extreme leaning more to speed and NOT EVENLY BALANCED as they are at face value. This does and will affect his 10.7f optimum distance. I cannot say exactly where it falls because the sire is new. The only thing I can say with absolute confidence is that this horse is not the "stamina" horse that his numbers portray. That speed WILL water down his stamina side significantly. With all that said, mainly because I am a superstitious bettor (and I want my future bets alive to!!) I will still be using this guy on my superfecta ticket but he will NOT be left alone on any spot at all. He will always be grouped with others. Also, this guy will love a sloppy track - his inbred speed is very hefty - whether the distance is there or not, I cannot say with 100% confidence. It is impossible when it comes to Not This Time's offspring this early in his career. What I can say with 100% confidence based on all of the offspring that the sire's influence is "over the top" speed dominant and this will affect Simplification's endurance capability. How far under 10.7f is indeterminable - but it is an obvious concern.

EPICENTER Not This Time – Silent Candy (Candy Ride) Grandsire: Giant’s Causeway

Chefs = 0-0-9-1-2 (12) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.42

Mares = 1-10-5-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.74 Triads = 16-23-18

St. Simon: 29.3% Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Balance Comparisons: Dark Star, Gallahadion, Pensive, Hoop Jr, Citation, Jet Pilot, Ponder, Decidedly, among others.

Combined: 12.2f to 12.8f → Without the obvious extra Not This Time extraordinary Speed Influence factored in.

ANZ Index: 1.13 (Additional Intermediate speed from Storm Cat, 3rd generation)

Sloppy Track Outlook: His maiden win at Churchill was listed as "good" but it was actually rainy. Sire Not This Time loved it too.

Analysis: This horse made it very easy to spot his elite potential after the Gun Runner stakes and now that he is the probable favorite, there isn’t too much more to say that hasn’t already been said for months. The spot that he is sitting in on this list, which is on the far extreme from Tawny Port is a highly advantaged spot to be in when it comes to hitting the board in the Derby. This spot is not advantaged for the win. The reason (besides Baffert and his carbon copy colts) is because those that sit in this spot are so lopsided on the scale and weighted so far on the stamina side that they fail in competition with the advantage of speed in this race. What has always made this horse stand out with his breeding credentials is that he is accepting, using and displaying the mares Intermediate speed inheritance which is located in the absolute perfect spot. Stamina has definitely lost the upper-hand since 2011, whether the reasons revolved around true talent or un-testable drugs is beside the point when it comes to Epicenter. What he has in his inheritance is extremely rare and when his chefs and his elite mares blend together, it gives him the ability to sustain wicked inherited speed as long as the track wants to go. This is the type of horse that was prevalent on the track going back decades ago and something that most of us never had the privilege to even bet on. Epicenter is exactly the type of horse that this country needs in the spotlight with a win in the Kentucky Derby and his success may actually cause other breeders to take note and stop with the hyper-speed breeding for at least a season. Epicenter is bred with long standing soundness and longevity. He is the best bred colt on this field without question. The type that could run 2 or 3 times a month if allowed. The type with endurance and killer speed like our Champions of the distant past. This horse is a true talent and if he should fall below the Baffert clan, I will still consider this horse the best of the field. No comparison.


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