For all of the new members at the Dirty Horse Club, I want to explain exactly what this analysis is all about. First and foremost, what I write is not my opinion on each of the colts, rather, it is strictly reading the dosage configurations as combined, utilizing both the chef’s and the mare’s numbers. When they are read, this will give the reader a fairly good idea as to where the optimum distance of the colt falls. It will point out those who have an advantage. It will highlight those colts who, based on the history of the winning Superfectas of the past editions of this particular race, have the best sets to conquer the 10f the quickest. It will also pinpoint those who may have a stronger advantage on a clear fast track and those on a sloppy track based on what the results depicted in the past. The analysis bases a great deal on common sense, history, past performances, trajectory and what is running in the colts veins to allow him to get the 10f of the Derby without compromising his preferred running form.
It is very important to understand that no matter how strong an advantage one colt may have over another, there will always be the strong possibility of severe pitfalls that the highly advantaged colt may endure with a field of twenty horses flying through that gate. Sometimes, one colt may have the perfect breeding and proper set-up, but if he gets bumped or steadied or pinned, he will not run in the same manner that his breeding demands. If he is unlucky with his draw or if his jockey is having a bad day, his numbers will not see him to the finish line first. The point being, if you are playing the Superfecta, do not bank on just the top 4 most advantaged horses in a box. The probability that all 4 find the perfect trip in the Derby is slim to none.
The only thing a good handicapper can do is go into the race with choosing a group of the highest advantaged contenders on the field based on the history of the Derby, his breeding to comfortably run the 10f without altering his normal form, and with the horses who have the drive and the determination to be ahead of the pack down the stretch.
This is my favorite article of the year to pen. I go into it with an open mind and I do not let my personal favorites stand in the way of just reading the combinations of the numbers equally for all. I am very blunt and to the point as it pertains to this specific race. For the past several years I have found that the numbers truly do tell the story of the fate of each of these 20 hopefuls, but it is in the way one chooses to configure their Superfecta ticket that truly holds the key to cashing the big payday.
The analysis will be posted within a few days and will comprise of the top 20+ point leaders to date. I will edit and add (or subtract) after the final preps are run next weekend. It will include the probables from overseas as well.
The analysis will be grouped into 4 categories.
1. The highly advantaged 3.10 and over Speed category.
2. The exact 3.00 category which is the bottom of the speed spectrum and usually overloaded.
3. The Mid-Range Average 2.10 to 2.90 disadvantaged category.
4. The advantaged Under 2.10 Stamina Category