Now that we are down to the final stretch, we must consider every avenue and be ready to isolate "The Fourth Horse".
If you follow this website throughout the year, you already know that 75% of it revolves around the Kentucky Derby, 20% of it revolves around the Belmont Stakes and Breeders Cup Classic and the other 5% is fluff. Since it is Derby almost 24/7, every year, we usually focus basically on the same hotshots from day one of the Trail..
From the beginning of this particular year, it has been Epicenter, White Abarrio, Messier, Simplification and Morello. This is good in one way, but it is extremely detrimental in other way.
As stated in "The Fourth Horse" article, there is always that elusive quiet 4th horse who is sitting out there holding the goods. He has the distance and killer configurations that always makes perfect sense the day after the Derby when we pour over the order of finish. We get so caught up watching these top picks devour their opponents for months, that we lose sight of that possible 4th horse who is lurking just behind the paddock. This year, no stone goes unturned.
I look back at some of the past Derby analysis' and I see a recurring pattern when it comes to that fourth horse. He was either pointed out as a player, or he had an entire article written about him prior, or he had the perfect configurations and was overlooked when it counts, when finally placing that bet.
2020 - Mr. Big News
DP = 5-1-33-7-0 (46) DI = 0.96 CD = 0.09
Mare Profile = 2-10-3-11-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.65 Triads = 15-24-20
Seriously, how blind and stupid does one have to be to pass on those 46 total chefs points for the Kentucky Derby?
I will never ever live that one down.
2019 - Country House
DP = 5-7-11-1-0 (24) DI = 2.69 CD = 0.67
Mare Profile = 4-6-2-10-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.53 Triads = 12-18-21
That year, there were only two colts who had full blown articles written about how good their potential was. Code of Honor and Country House. Three months prior to the Derby, "Built for the Race, Country House". Coincidentally, those two horses ran first and second in the Derby. Country House's final analysis revolved around how great his 3rd place performance was on the sloppy track in the Arkansas Derby, against the bias with that full blown and over the top stamina inheritance of his. Was he found on the superfecta ticket for the sloppy Derby that year?????
2018 - Instilled Regard
DP = 2-5-13-2-0 (22) DI = 1.59 CD = 0.32
Mare Profile = 6-4-7-6-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.79 Triads = 17-17-21
The late comer that year, who's analysis was thrown on at the last minute. Killer Derby Configurations.
In the analysis," This guy has one of the better configurations on the list. And if pushed to show his speed in the first 2 calls like he did in the Lecomte, he could very well be a player in this particular race. He has the stamina to keep going and he has one of the best Triad configurations on the field." Sure, the best triads on the field, and was he used at the bottom of the super???
2017 - Battle of Midway
DP = 10-14-17-2-1 (44) DI = 2.83 CD = 0.68
Mare Profile = 8-2-2-11-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.87 Triads = 12-15-18
"If it rains, he would be a definite yes for me somewhere on that super ticket. If it doesn’t rain, well, I’m not so quick to cross him out yet." Sure, a definite player. While it was raining buckets at Churchill Downs, those 44 points in his profile flew right to the wayside. One of the biggest regrets of any ticket I ever held. And there has been thousands of those!
I think you get the point. I will not allow it to happen this year and the handicapping will not stop until the post parade. The colts outside of the 5 main players obviously have just as good of a shot to hit that board as the fourth horse. It is not always the obvious, like it was with Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner and Mohaymen back in 2016. Actually, I take that back, it is always OBVIOUS, but for some reason, it gets obliterated when placing the actual bet.
Not this year.
The following colts do have something in their back pockets to make their presence known as the 4th horse. Actually, there could be one who even climbs aboard, days before the bell rings. You never know. We roll with the punches. No stone unturned.
TAWNY PORT
Chef's Profile = DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.90
Mare Profile = 4-7-5-9-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.77 Triads = 16-21-20
Extremely impressive Derby configurations. Equally fine performances along the way on AWS and turf. Bombed in the Risen Star in his only start on dirt. But, this horse is not built for the turf, his configurations are screaming dirt. So what happened? I do think that he found himself shuffled way too far back in the Risen Star and he did actually make up some ground before the monster Epicenter crossed that finish line. Brad Cox is one of the best trainers out there. One of the talented few who actually knows his horses. I have a very good feeling that it isnt only that he thinks that 40 Derby points may not be enough to secure a gate for wheeling this horse back so soon into the Lexington Stakes. I truly believe he sees how this horse is built. A speed horse who performs very well on an adverse bias will explode when he finally hits the right surface. It did not happen in the Risen Star as it should have. Mr. Cox wants confirmation and evidence that his horse can indeed be competitive on dirt at Churchill. Take special note of the Lexington Stakes race this year. If Tawny Port can compete alongside In Due Time at Keeneland, we would have Longshot #1.
The chef's profile only has 10 total points. Remember, under 12 total points means that the mares will be more influential to the colt than the chef's. The chef's influence does not go away, however, the mare's will have much more say than 50/50. When calculated, the mare's CD falls at -0.19 (that is Negative .19) which translates to 11.75f. If we give a slight edge to the mares, this horse is traveling at least 10.3f when combined. He has the distance of the Derby and does not need to travel right on the rail to get around the track. These are exceptional Derby numbers for a board hit. His chart is filled with sires who were past Derby stars as well.
This horse has inherited 4x the amount of speed over stamina from his chefs - (major speed).
He inherited a speed/stamina balance of 4 points leaning to stamina from his mares - (major stamina)
He has a packed and loaded set of triads. - (Derby Worthy)
BARBER ROAD
DP = 3-4-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.83
Mare Profile = 10-3-3-6-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-12-17
Second generation Tapit horse sporting a 3.80 index, well over the 3.00 threshold. He's on the border because his mares line is not giving him that extra punch of exceptional speed inheritance that is necessary to combat and balance out the excessive Tapit Stamina. He is competitive every single time, he loves hitting that board, but has only connected with wins as a two year old. There is no prerequisite that a colt must go undefeated on the trail, and his track record coupled with that 3.80 Tapit index could point to a horse who is built much better for the race at hand, the Derby. At the very least, he has the ingredients to be considered board hit material with his obvious distance capability. Over 3.00 Tapit boys should not be overlooked. Longshot #2.
IN DUE TIME
DP = 1-2-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.29
Mare Profile = 3-7-3-11-3 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.80 Triads = 13-21-17
I'm heading all the way back to the very end of January. This horse was installed as #8 on the Top Ten list and should NOT be forgotten. Half brother to Epicenter and Simplification, this horse has posted bullet work after bullet work, displaying intense speed with that 1.55 index. Fallen by the wayside and barely mentioned, In Due Time is built incredibly well for the Kentucky Derby. He broke his maiden traveling a mere 5.5f on a SLOPPY track, with only one horse on the field anywhere near him at the finish line - an advantaged 3.00 speed colt. The rest of the field was a block back. Confirmation that a sloppy track or a highly souped up track or a fair track won't matter as he travels closer to his optimum. If he finds favor in the Lexington Stakes as he should, we now have Longshot #3.
So ends this article, but it does not end the search. There are still guys out there like Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll as well, and as every year predictably confirms, 10f+ capability with serious speed and serious stamina, perfect configurations, and the will and determination to be at the front of the pack on the PROPER bias for their breeding will always be advantaged. The real handicapping begins once the perfect advantaged set-ups are isolated. We have been well on our way but we can't become lazy. That 4th horse out there is screaming the 10f Derby and not one of us should let the ball drop. He will tell us exactly who he is once everything is laid out. It could be that the top 4 who hit the board are exactly the same ones that we have been focused on all year, but as we all know, the Kentucky Derby is never that easy. It always makes us work!
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