Breeders Cup 2023 - Picks, Tips, & Longshots - Various Races
- Nov 2, 2023
- 4 min read
FRIDAY, NOV. 3
This post will be updated throughout the weekend.
Most all picks represent boxed wagers looking for best odds to prevail.
Race 4 - GOLDEN STATE JUVENILE STAKES - 7f Dirt
Sticking with the formula on fast dirt at 7f where the usual front speed looses its advantage. #11 Magic Spoon has had only one race but capitalized off of faulty lead tier speed. Had early trouble in that win and figures to be a bit closer. Speed on par with favorites. #12 Mici's Express returns to dirt and has always rallied from off the pace out west. #1 Dr. No No is a deserving favorite with major speed inheritance that matches the bias. #10 Last Call London showed speed and could hold at 7f.
RACE RESULTS: 1st - Magic Spoon 2nd - Private Gem 3rd - Dr. No No 4th - Mici's Express
RACE 6 - BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES - 8.5f Dirt
Race sets up for the deserving favorite, #7 Tamara, which will follow with very low odds. Numbers, Style and Energy are perfect. #1 Candied has great energy distribution ability and I like the staying power. #9 Brightwork had a difficult time at Keeneland, breeding much better for the SA track and should fire. Possibly late energy problems though. Undefeated #12 Just FYI, may have just been waiting for a track like this. Has extra stamina and positions herself correctly. Post may hinder, has to roll out of that gate.
Sidenote: This may sound strange but Dallas Stewart's Longshot, #10 Accommodate Eva, may have the same upgrade on this track as Brightwork and is built extremely well for the race. Could be a nice throw in if playing supers. But take it with a grain of salt - never professed to know the fillies and how they relate with the numbers on dirt.
RACE RESULTS: 1st - Just FYI 2nd - Jody's Pride 3rd - Candied 4th - Life Talk
RACE 8 - BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE - 8.5f Dirt
Baffert's #10 Muth has no excuses for a loss here. With a clean break and preferred position #9 Fierceness has the right track surface to redeem himself from last race. #6 Locked and #4 Timberlake are even steven walking into the race and competitive on all angles. Extra look at #11 Noted, half decent longshot for addition into super bets. Good shot on the proper bias now.
RACE RESULTS: 1st - Fierceness 2nd - Muth 3rd - Locked 4th - Timberlake
RACE 9 - BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE TURF - 8f Turf
An Aiden O'Brien entry, #2 River Tiber, is a must. This horse has only shown up in sprinting races and was successful - his breeding is far from a turf sprinter. #9 Endlessly, has home field advantage, undefeated and fantastic speed. One O'Brien-trained colt is great, two are even better. #8 Unquestionable, 2nd place at Longchamp, has the determined Frankie Dettori to accompany him into the stall. May the highest odds win. (Ryan Moore takes over the mount now.)
UPDATE: With the scratch of River Tiber, I'll use #14 Carson's Road for a possible all out late drive.
RACE RESULTS: 1st - Unquestionable 2nd - Mountain Bear 3rd - My Boy Prince 4th - Can Group
SATURDAY, NOV. 3
These picks may be updated throughout the day.
RACE 3 - BIG ASS FANS DIRT MILE
This race turned completely sour - not worth the effort for a formal analysis. #3 Cody’s Wish, a deserving and sentimental favorite. Very impressive last workout time as well. Tapit's #5 Charge It returns to a fast speed bias and Pletcher should have him fully cranked. Boxed with #6 Skippylongstocking and #9 National Treasure. Hoping good odds hit top.
RACE RESULTS: 1st - Cody's Wish 2nd - National Treasure 3rd - Skippylongstocking 4th - Charge It
RACE 6 - BREEDERS CUP MILE TURF
All chalk. #10 Songline is Japan’s best asset this weekend. #6 Mawj on a 4 race winning streak including the QE2 – but quick turnaround. With the absence of O’Brien, must stick with Appleby and #14 Master of the Seas
RACE RESULTS: 1st - Master of the Seas 2nd - Mawj 3rd - Casa Creed
RACE 8 - BREEDERS CUP TURF - 12f
#9 Mostahdaf is listed as the Longines Second Best rated horse in the world for a reason. #11 King of Steel with a quick turnaround but he has Dettori and the horse is a towering beast. #5 Auguste Rodin would have been an easy single on top, however, Aiden blamed the plane ride for disappointing performance two races back. Auguste certainly didn’t swim here.
I adore Aiden O'Brien and I wish I could just single his boy, but this will be a 3 way boxed bet. And for the 4th spot, random draw with several. I may revisit this before the race goes off.
RACE RESULTS: 1st - Auguste Rodin 2nd - Up to the Mark 3rd - Shahryar 4th - Gold Phoenix
RACE 9 - BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC
Top Two with #2 Zandon and #6 Saudi Crown. One up front and one from the back. The two from Japan, #5 Derma Sotogake and #8 Ushba Tesoro deserve respect with Arcangelo out. #3 White Abarrio is the wild card for me at this distance at this track.
RACE RESULTS: 1st - White Abarrio 2nd - Derma Sotogake 3rd - Proxy 4th - Arabian Knight
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