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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2023 Breeder's Cup Juvenile Analysis



Friday - Race 8 8.5f Dirt



Post 1 - THE WINE STEWARD 8-1 Maker/Saez Vino Rosso

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 7-3-3-5-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.71 Triads = 13-11-18


This horse has done absolutely nothing wrong in his 4 races to date but it appears that this race needs almost the credentials of a miler within their numbers. It has to lean to speed and this guy leans more to stamina. Full pace meltdown and he has what it takes to continue but it does not appear that will happen this year.


Post 2 - PRINCE OF MONACO 4-1 Baffert/Prat Speightstown

DP = 6-7-8-1-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.82 ANZ = 4.20

Mare Profile = 8-3-5-3-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.20 Triads = 16-11-14


He’ll be sent up to the lead tier because Baffert knows his track. Prince has the 8.5f and has just enough to hold on for a fair share. But something is telling me that Baffert’s own tactics may backfire this time, leaving him with only one to pick up the pieces. He's either sacrificing Prince or Wine Me Up. I don't have psychic powers to know with 100% certainty which one, but my gut is telling me its Wine Me Up who gets the shaft.


Post 3 - WINE ME UP 15-1 Baffert/Vasquez Vino Rosso

DP = 3-4-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 ANZ = 2.20

Mare Profile = 6-3-5-8-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.80 Triads = 14-16-19


Based on the workouts and the American Pharoah Stakes, I see Baffert setting this race exactly the same as that prep. He will send Wine Me Up to roll off a 96+ and 105+ lead pace, which will use up all of his energy because he is not built to be a lead sprinter. He pulled the same maneuver with Nullarbor in the El Camino Real. I see this horse as the sacrificial lamb.


Post 4 - TIMBERLAKE 4-1 Cox/Geroux Into Mischief

DP = 2-2-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.14 ANZ = 1.57

Mare Profile = 7-8-4-7-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 19-19-19


He’s not really built correctly for the win, but his last race on the sloppy surface shows that he is a speed force in spite of it. That speed is coming from his mares, not his chefs, so it may just work. He will love the distance. High cruising pace with ability to come on late.


Post 5 - ECORO NEO - Scratch


Post 6 - LOCKED 7-2 Pletcher/J. Ortiz Gun Runner

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 6-2-5-6-9 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.66 Triads = 13-13-20


This horse moves better on a faster track, but he has a stamina build, that is what makes him lethal. His Breeder’s Futurity race, to me, was not an impressive win. He was 100% pace dependent on lead tier failing. His maiden win at Saratoga was spectacular and he would need to replicate that in order to dance with Muth down the stretch. At the very least, Pletcher has a horse who can run from anywhere on that track, just in case.


Post 7 - CUBAN THUNDER 30-1 Murray/Pereira Profitable (IRE)

DP = 0-7-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.70 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 8-7-1-6-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.26 Triads = 16-14-13


I understand why the connections are giving this a shot. It's just not a shot that I'll jump on board with.


Post 8 - GENERAL PARTNER 8-1 Brown/Franco Speightstown

DP = 5-9-12-0-0 (26) DI = 3.33 CD = 0.73 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-7-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.09 Triads = 16-14-16


This horse has done absolutely nothing wrong in each and every one of his races and has every shot at the bottom of the board with the rest of them. Just seems a bit lightweight compared to the others and you can't bet them all.


Post 9 - FIERCENESS 6-1 Pletcher/Velasquez City of Light

DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83 ANZ = 9.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19


Built correctly for the track. Last race is a toss. He lunged at the break and temporarily threw his jockey off balance, therefore he did not get his lead and he was set completely off his course. After that, he was bumped by another and also traveled 7 wide at one point. If this guy reverts back to a clean break and forward style, he is one fierce competitor. Major shot to surprise. I'm rolling that dice that he breaks well here and displays all of that beautiful inheritance.


Post 10 - MUTH 4-1 Baffert/Hernandez Good Magic

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 6-7-3-6-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-16-16


It’s all about his maiden race. Plus, he will have friendly assistance all around him. The one to beat.


Post 11 - NOTED 20-1 Pletcher/I. Ortiz Cairo Prince

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88 ANZ = 4.33

Mare Profile = 5-4-5-12-3 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.83 Triads = 14-21-20


My gut is telling me that Pletcher was very strategic in the past placement of this horse for a reason. He does have a tendency to race train opposite for what he wants to pull out. A 4.33 indexed son of Cairo Prince should explode at Santa Anita. Incredible numbers for this race. Complete evidence of his mare stamina, hopefully he will use his chefs speed to his advantage at Santa Anita. Three turf races (successful though they may have been) completely contradicts inheritance. One dirt race, at Monmouth of all places, and the horse still posted a win running against the grain. Of course, his beyers suffer. He is far removed at this stage from Baffert’s crew but if this horse is going to be able to finally break out on a suitable surface, it would be this one. There is potential here for this type to glide more comfortably, much faster, and more aligned with his chart. He has Irad, and at 20-1, I’ll take a chance with this longshot for board hit possibility.

 

Boxed Exacta, Tri, Super

  1. MUTH

  2. FIERCENESS

  3. TIMBERLAKE

  4. LOCKED

Additions Underneath For 2nd Super Ticket: Noted and Prince of Monaco

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