2026 Prep Winners - Part Three

2026 Prep Winners - Part One 2026 Prep Winners - Part Two

Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.

Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars

2/28/2026 FOUNTAIN of YOUTH - Gulfstream

COMMANDMENT Race Results 8.5f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:43.33

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 18-22-18

Updated Configurations: DP = 9-2-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 1.00

Into Mischief - Sippicon Harbor (Orb) Brad Cox Irad Ortiz Jr.

St. Simon: 17.96%

FOY Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• The Into Mischief factor is one thing, but the combination of 18% top linebreeding to St. Simon through Northern Dancer, Nearco and Nearctic coupled with Grandsire Orb through his mares sets him apart. Derby Winner Orb was stacked in his configurations: {DP = 11-12-15-0-2 (40) DI = 3.21   CD = 0.75} proficient across the board and this has inevitably made a mark in this guys style and performances and energy. He will remain at 4.5 stars as he has been from the beginning for now. The drift in the stretch and the close call from Chief Wallabee doesn't really call for the full 5 stars at the moment. Let's see where the Florida Derby takes us and then we'll go from there.

• Chief Wallabee deserves mention. Second generation Tapit with a 3.57 index hits the mark for Kentucky and he may have had full success in the FOY with a little bit better position at the half. Maiden winner went toe to toe with a very good and well-bred horse at only 8.5f gives substantial proof that he could have major potential moving forward. While Renegade and Commandment seem to be the elite rear runners at the moment, Chief Wallabee made great strides towards that company. DHC had him at 3.5 stars as a maiden winner in Pool 4 based on the Tapit factor not as well advantaged for a win in Louisville, but how he performed in this race certainly qualifies as board hit material with his balance. He will now upgrade from 3.5 stars to 4 stars. ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

2/28/2026 GOTHAM STAKES - Aqueduct

IRON HONOR Race Results 8f clear/good Final Time: 1:37.94

DP = 0-0-0-0-0 (0) DI = Inf   CD = Inf ANZ = Inf

Mare Profile = 6-1-6-7-8   Speed = 7   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.66   Triads = 13-14-21

Updated Configurations: DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70

Nyquist - Orencia (Blame) Chad Brown Manuel Franco

St. Simon: 18.75% (Arch → Nearco → St. Simon)

Gotham Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment:  ? ? ?

• In both Pool 3 and Pool 4, DHC gave this guy 2.5 stars for the 10f Derby, stating, "Mares say yes to 10f but zero chefs in the 1st four generations of chart is hard to back." Well, now this guy wins a Derby Prep, granted it's only an 8f prep, however, it was at Aqueduct. That is pointing directly to that mare's scale Speed = 7   Stamina = 15 which realistically is saying that the fact that he has no chefs (prominent or otherwise) makes no difference to him and he fancies what he received from his mares fully. If that is the case, he's hitting very close to 10f and the 19% to St. Simon aids a great deal as well. Never in the history of the Kentucky Derby has a colt won in Louisville in May with ZERO chefs in his profile since tracking began in 1940 (Count Fleet with the lowest profile points at 4 back in 1943). We've had a couple hit under ten points, but never zero. Since the mares have ample stamina and he struck gold at Aqueduct (speed side shown as well - Nyquist aids with that) there may just be something there to grab onto. He showed that gravitational pull to those mares on that bias. Unfamiliar territory says to hold off on ranking to see if he can repeat, going a bit further, and against a more legit field of competitors. Not confident to rate at this mark in time.

3/1/2026 REBEL STAKES - Oaklawn

CLASS PRESIDENT Race Results 8.5f clear fast Final Time: 1:43.21

DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 9-2-6-6-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 17-14-19

Updated Configurations: DP = 4-16-16-0-0 (36) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.67

Uncle Mo - Top Quality (Quality Road) Todd Pletcher John Velazquez

St. Simon: 16.8%

Rebel Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• Hard to explain why everything about his set-up and his performances is just so under-stated, for lack of a better word. It's common, it's neutral, it's not good, nor is it bad. The mare's 1.00 index is high, but the chef's CD at .50 neutralizes it. The 3.00 chef index is the bottom of the speed spectrum, it's not elevated. Only a 2 point tilt to the stamina side on the scale. It's just not Derby-worthy in the sense of anything above and beyond note-worthy or standing out. His progression from the Swale Stakes to the Rebel was very nice but still not as "outstanding" as some of his prospective Derby foes. There is still 2 months to go, so he surely has plenty of time to up his game but not so sure that the way he is built will get him too much further up that ladder.

• Second place finisher, Silent Tactic, 2nd generation Tapit offspring with Damsire Gun Runner, seems to have a bit more upside with his configurations and his performance did show off both sides of his scale, even in defeat. Distance capability is definitely there and his Index at 3.44/3.89 hits the mark. In Pool 4, we gave this guy 3 stars, and stated, "Yet another 2nd generation Tapit boy that is balanced correctly on the speed side. Built correctly." With evidence now procured from his mid field run, accelerating when he finally received an opening and the speed down the stretch that he delivered, he seems to be on the rise. While he had the opportunity to pass, we'll give him the benefit of the doubt at the short 8.5f distance - he would have probably succeeded given more distance, after-all, he has that Tapit blood. For now, he deserves at least a slight upgrade, so we'll go from 3 stars to 3.5 stars and we'll see how he goes at 9f as he gets closer to his optimum for an even better uptick. ♥ ♥ ♥+

3/7/2026 SAN FELIPE - Santa Anita

POTENTE Race Results 8.5f clear/fast Final Time: 1:42.92

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 18-26-19

Updated Configurations: DP = 9-4-15-0-0 (28) DI = 2.73   CD = 0.79

Into Mischief - Sweet Sting (Awesome Again) Bob Baffert Juan Hernandez

St. Simon: Hail to Reason → Plucky Liege (Close 2nd to St. Simon: 20.12%)

San Felipe Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• DHC's #1 prospect for the Kentucky Derby after losing Thunderously beats a very nice field today even with a boxed in trip from Hernandez. His configurations are sensational. For a closer look at how this colt aligns with the history of the Derby,

  please refer to article posted January 2nd "From Two Year Olds To Derby Glory" which gives a detailed account of why he stood out prior to his debut and why he was given #1 status after only a maiden win. Potente and Paladin have very similar balance and scale, with strong stamina contribution from Tapit for Paladin and Awesome Again for Potente. The balance in their configurations are closely related, however, Potente's full configurations are a step above, historically speaking.

• It is unfortunate for Brant that his connections insist on that gate to wire maneuver all the time. There was no reason to best the sprinter, So Happy, running insane early fractions at 22.88 46.62 1:10.42 in order to simply sit on the lead - especially with a Gun Runner colt. It's either one of two things: Either the man simply insists on molding another Pharoah/Justify and will never cease ruining the potential of very good horses over and over again - OR - he was sacrificing Brant for Potente. Whatever the case may be, Brant is done as a 10f prospect, just like the myriad of other clones left in the wake.

• Second place finisher Robusta deserves mention. Son of Accelerate with damsire Into Mischief has nice numbers and performed well. DP = 1-6-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 4.60 and underneath all that inherited speed sits a very substantial Mares line: DI = 7-3-3-11-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.77   Triads = 13-17-20. That mares scale is very promising and he worked it well on that fast bias. Doug O'Neill has himself a prospect. Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

3/7/2026 TAMPA BAY DERBY - Tampa Bay

THE PUMA Race Results 8.5f Showery/Rain/Wet Final Time: 1:43.23

DP = 2-7-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 5.40

Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.13   Triads = 18-14-17 (2nd gen Tapit)

Updated Configurations: DP = 4-7-15-0-0 (26) DI = 2.47   CD = 0.58

Essential Quality - Eve of War (Declaration of War) Gustavo Delgado Javier Castellano

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Tampa Bay Derby Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ (Showers/Rain/Wet track)

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• First we'll talk about the winner, then we'll talk about the race itself. This guy was given a 4 star rating back on Feb 11th in the Future Pool 4 article and unfortunately I forgot about him when putting together the Top Ten last week and used the 3.5 star rated colts (Brant and Silent Tactic) instead. I missed The Puma who I rated at 4 stars - above them. My mistake but Im getting old and its alot to keep straight! On his tiny blurb in that Pool Four article, it states, "One more Tapit boy with very ample speed inheritance to back up that stamina. The 5.40 ANZ is not too shabby!" There is no doubt by The Puma's running style that he is holding killer Tapit stamina but it is his 4.60/5.40 indexes which are highly necessary for a Tapit Boy in the Derby. Renegade, Commandment and Chief Wallabee just gained more company. He will remain at 4 stars exiting this race, just as before, and this is due to the race itself which we're going to dive into all on its own.

There are five key factors to consider when deciding which horses are advantaged or disadvantaged in a particular race:

Pace, Bias, Weather, Distance, and Breeding. Weather and track bias go hand in hand. Today's Tampa Bay Derby turned into a TYPE TWO RAIN EVENT, which created a wet slick track on a short 8½ furlongs. On that type of surface, the higher over 3.00 speed-index horses dominate. They glide over the wet dirt, often running faster than usual - sometimes too fast where they exert too much speed, sometimes they take it all the way, especially in that 8f to 8.5f range. These horses can win from the front or come from off the pace, but at 1-1/16 miles, the speed-oriented runners gain a huge advantage.

Let's look at the order of finish for the Superfecta:

1. THE PUMA Index = 4.60

2. FURTHER ADO Index = 1.86

3. CANALETTO Index = 3.80

4. REDLAND REBELS Index = 15.00

I will tell you that when the rain was coming down while they were in that paddock I was silently pleading with Brad Cox to "Scratch Him! Please! Scratch Further Ado!" The disadvantage that he had in this 8.5f race on that wet rainy track dropped down to a one ♥ star rating. Colts with a 3.00 index and under had a severe disadvantage and none of them made any headway on that track - except for Further Ado. Four others lost their advantage as well; Talkin, Thunder Buck, Hulkamania and Roger That Dana. All four at 3.00 and under, all disadvantaged, all faltered. It was the bias. What Further Ado accomplished against the grain of his breeding was exceptional to come only 3/4 of a length short of that wire. With the highest amount of chef stamina on that field, I truly thought he was going to bomb in this short race with that wet track and he didn't. He should have, but he didn't. Further Ado is an exceptional horse. I am not saying that The Puma didn't deserve his win, what I am saying is that his main competition was handed a very huge disadvantage on that bias today - and he still performed to a heightened level.

3/14/2026 VIRGINIA DERBY - Colonial Downs

INCREDIBOLT Results Chart 8.5f Cloudy Fast Final Time: 1:47.76

DP = 5-10-10-1-0 (26) DI = 3.33   CD = 0.73 ANZ = 3.33

Mare Profile = 11-3-3-5-11   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.93   Triads = 17-11-19

Updated Configurations: DP = 5-10-18-1-0 (34) DI = 2.40   CD = 0.56

Bolt D'Oro - Sapphire Spitfire (Awesome Again) Riley Mott Jamie Torres

St. Simon: 31.25%

Virginia Derby Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment:  ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• Copy and Pasting the same thoughts from the Street Sense Win, based on 3 seconds slower for this race. - Technically, there are some excellent points dotted within these configurations, but then again, there are a few items that are off. It is hard to gauge at this point in time if the good side ultimately takes over the bad, so it is best to keep it neutral for the time being. On one side we have evidence of adherence to his 3.33 speed inheritance (late speed) and we also have a good handle on his stamina side based on his style of running. This horse ran into very slow early fractions, so he was not handed the win on a silver platter - but his mares are so bookended (11 points in the brilliant and the same in the Professional) that it is hard to pinpoint which side (or both) he is gaining the main influence from them. But then, he has 31.25% line breeding to St. Simon which is fantastic for the 10f and could be the basis for the late running style. It's a Catch 22 when trying to read his inheritance, especially the mare side, at this point in time. The Medaglia d'Oro plus the Awesome Again influence in the second generations of his chart is very intriguing, it is a toss up with those mares but St. Simon could override. Staying safe with 3.5 stars.

3/21/2026 Louisiana Derby - Fairgrounds

EMERGING MARKET Results Chart 9.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:55.18

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 1-4-6-7-8   Speed = 5   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.41   Triads = 11-17-21

Updated Configurations: DP = 12-4-17-5-0 (38) DI = 1.81   CD = 0.61

Candy Ride - Wild Empress (Empire Maker) Chad Brown Flavien Prat

St. Simon: Fappiano → Teddy

Louisiana Derby Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• This horse is beyond special. His mare's line is exquistite - outstanding amount of inbred stamina and he still shows off that 4.14 ANZ figure like a champ. He showed superior grit and determination in only his second start, very professional down the stretch and he was not denied that trophy. He was built for this 9.5f contest, but he is built even better for 10f at Churchill in May. Chad Brown has Paladin and Emerging Market and at this point its looking like a stone cold exacta play with Candy Ride and Gun Runner at the helm - but the big question will be whether Flavien goes back to Paladin (he rode him for his win in the Remsen) or does he stay put with Emerging Market. I'm hoping he stays put. Based on the way Brant was ridden in the San Felipe to the benefit of Potente - Emerging Market may take a leap from his #2 spot on DHC's Top Ten and ride straight into #1 off of this effort. Major inbred (and displayed) speed + Massive inbred stamina = Derby Win Contender.

3/21/2026 JEFF RUBY STEAKS - Turfway Park

FULLEFFORT Results Chart 9f AWS Clear Fast Final Time: 1:49.94

DP = 3-18-7-0-0 (28) DI = 7.00   CD = 0.86 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 4-8-3-10-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-21-18

Updated Configurations: DP = 7-10-11-0-0 (28) DI = 4.09   CD = 0.86

Liam's Map - Callmethesqueeze (Awesome Again) Brad Cox Irad Ortiz, Jr.

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Louisiana Derby Race Placement: ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• I am blown away by this dominating performance and I must say that this guy completely and totally bucked tradition and history in this particular race and blew them completely away. His configurations were the worst on the field as it pertains to the past, sitting with his 7.00 index and being the son of Liam's Map - on AWS!! Talk about running completely through his configurations and without top linebreeding to St. Simon on top of that is incredible. Looks to be completely feeding off of Awesome Again because even his chefs profile 3-18-7-0-0 is completely dominate in the 7f to 9f "dirt" range (the 18 in the Intermediate slot) with 7X the inherited speed. This guy slams a 9f contest on AWS, coming from the far rear, and wins by 2.5 lengths - that is spectacular. What a remarkable performance with his breeding against history. The horse outdid himself and became yet another player with his set-up. Just like above with Emerging Market but with a little bit of a switch in order: Massive inbred speed + Major inbred (and displayed) stamina = Derby Contender. We are in for a serious handicapping dilemma this year. There are quite a few magnificent rear runners who are built correctly historically heading into that Churchill gate this year. Seems Irad will have a huge decision to make this year and that aspect will be very important to our final decisions as well.

3/28/2026 FUKURYU STAKES - Nakayama

DANON BOURBON Race Replay 9f clear/fast Final Time: 1:50.9

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.50

Mare Profile = 7-6-2-8-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-16-16

Updated Configurations: DP = 1-7-16-0-0 (24) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.38

Maxfield - Wild Ridge (Tapit) Manabu Ikezoe Atsuya Nishimura

St. Simon: 25%

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• The first time I glanced at this colts numbers I thought we were in the clear with that mare's line and we had nothing to worry about. What I failed to notice was TAPIT! Of course his mares line was terrible, he has Tapit. He has a chef index over 3.20, at a strong 4.00 with inherited Tapit's stamina. Now we have alot to worry about. Add another top contender to the ever growing list of properly built horses for the 152nd Kentucky Derby. He's a huge horse, runs midpack, and will walk into Louisville undefeated. The lightly raced Danon broke his 8f maiden at two, won his first 9f allowance race as a newly minted 3 year old and now has won the 9f Fukuryu. Seems Danon is following in the footsteps of his sire, Maxfield, a personal sentimental favorite when he graced the track, with a race record of 11 races and 8 wins, also went on a 5 race win streak that started with his maiden. Look out, this guy may be lethal.

  
  

  DON ERECTUS Second Place Finisher

  DP = 2-1-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

  Mare Profile = 1-4-8-10-3   Speed = 5   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.58   Triads = 13-22-21

  (Configurations remain the same)

  Danon Legend - Dona Primo (Furioso) Noboru Takagi Jockey: Kiwamu Ogino

  St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy (2nd is St. Simon at 21.6%)

  Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

  Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Two weeks prior to this prep race, Don's connections (for reasons completely unknown) decided to enter this guy into a 9f allowance race. Don massacred the 15 entries in that race. Fourteen days later, he is put into GATE #1 in the Fukuryu and this time he runs to the lead, attempting a gate to wire score and misses the wire AGAIN, settling for second. I'm not gonna lie, I was cursing his handlers as soon as Danon passed him down that stretch. That 9f allowance race was not a barrier trial (they are usually 6f or 7f races) it was an all out effort and the very quick turnaround may have cost him his win in this Prep. This horse is as gritty and determined as you can get. Built like a monster. Thrives with distance. Ridiculously over-worked prior to this race against Danon. Now, both Danon Bourbon and Don Erectus are tied with 40 points on the leaderboard instead of Don with 60 and Danon with 20. Yes, very upsetting and heartbreaking. This guy is a muti-style beast who has given it his all in every race he has entered, and every one of those races were below his optimum. I am not sure why they would have entered him into that allowance, it makes zero sense.

3/28/2026 UAE DERBY - Meydan Racecourse

WONDER DEAN Race Replay 9.5f Clear/fast Final Time: 1:59.19

DP = 1-0-4-1-0 (6) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.17 ANZ = 1.00

Mare Profile = 5-4-5-8-7   Speed = 9   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.70   Triads = 14-17-20

(Configurations remain the same)

Dee Majesty - Wonder Siang Praw (Wonder Acute) Daisoke Takayanagi Jockey: Christian Demuro

St. Simon: 9.38%

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ + +

• Wow! Wonder Dean has a very famous Grandsire - the late great son of Sunday Silence, Deep Impact. He won the Japanese Triple Crown in 2005 and the Japan Cup in 2006. He had quite the illustrious stud career and was the leading sire in Japan for eleven straight years (2012-2022), which is a mic drop all on its own. Well, Further Ado now has serious company in that stamina category and this guy's numbers exceed - by alot. Wonder Dean will be sitting at the the very base of the list - the far extreme in stamina. Just for comparison, Dean is configured and balanced similar to Epicenter and will be sitting in that exact spot on the final list when the full field is laid out from Highest Inbred Speed down to Highest Inbred Stamina. He kicked it into overdrive late at 9.5f and these numbers solidify that he will do exactly the same at 10f - as long as he doesn't get knocked around out of the gate. Christian Demuro will be heading to Kentucky! Add another to the growing list of very well built animals enroute to Louisville. There wouldn't be a chance in hell that I would leave this guy off of the super. He is the quintessential late stamina type that always finds his way to that tote board. Dean has very WONDERful Configurations. Adore these types of stamina boys who exhibit speed without breaking a sweat! Move over Don, Dean has arrived.

3/28/2026 FLORIDA DERBY - Gulfstream Park

COMMANDMENT Race Results 9f clear/fast Final Time: 1:49.99

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 18-22-18

Updated Configurations: DP = 9-2-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 1.00

Into Mischief - Sippicon Harbor (Orb) Brad Cox Irad Ortiz Jr.

St. Simon: 17.96%

Florida Derby Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• I went back and re-read everything that has been posted at the DHC about Commandment from the Pool Three Ratings on Jan 15th where he was highlighted as a 4.5 star colt (just shy of the magical 5) and given the #2 spot on January's Top Ten list. Then, through to the Fountain of Youth article where he was highlighted as being the best shot at capitalizing off of a win there and moving forward to a win in the Florida Derby with his build. He was noted for his high quality energy distribution that stood out in conjunction with his configurations. But then he drifted down the stretch in the FOY while still securing his win. Admittedly, I was hard on him, kept him at his 4.5 star rating and he took a slight dive in February's Top Ten down to #5. This guy came back to his killer Energy with a vengeance today and solidified what we saw in him months ago.

  
  

  On a side note, we may have a huge Derby field filled with properly built colts this year but sometimes the easiest play is not to overthink things, use common sense, and stick with the ones who stood out from the very beginning. That initial assessment comes without the noise and deals simply with being built correctly for the parameters of the Kentucky Derby with performances that back that build. The early Pool One back in October of 2025, DHC nailed Renegade, Paladin and Further Ado as 5 star colts. We lost Ted Noffey, Plutarch and Thunderously. We singled out Further Ado, Potente and Emerging Market at 5 stars with maiden wins. I am very pleased with the initial ratings with this year's crop and I am very proud of the track record of our system. There is nowhere, and I do mean NOWHERE - at any other website, through any so-called pedigree gurus, no talking pundits, no newscasters, NOBODY had these guys slated as the top of the crop when they were two years old. ONLY AT THE DIRTY HORSE CLUB. Actually, the very ones who have negative things to say about dosage are the very ones who get their information from the Dirty Horse Club. I know this for a fact. And since I am thinking of calling it quits after this Triple Crown, I am not afraid to say it and to be proud of it. I know that many here at our Club have great Future Pool tickets with real 10f Derby players with killer odds from way back and that is only because of DR. STEVEN ROMAN and his DOSAGE THEORY along with the greatest breeder of all time, FEDERICO TESIO. All of those nay-sayers can shove it with their stupidity. The DHC's track record, for years, has been spot on thanks to Dr. Roman. His contribution to horse racing is second to none. Finally, I'm just sorry I didn't have Wonder Dean on the radar months ago - he's the only one we missed. I am also proud to say that Commandment finally gets his 5 stars today and he will move back to his prior high ranking on the upcoming DHC Top Ten. We are going to slam this year's Derby and that's all I have to say.

3/28/2026 ARKANSAS DERBY - Oaklawn Park

RENEGADE Race Results 9f Clear/fast Final Time: 1:49.70

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 18-22-18

Updated Configurations: DP = 9-3-20-0-0 (32) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.66

Into Mischief - Spice Is Nice (Curlin) Todd Pletcher Jockey: Irad Ortiz

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy at 10.16% - Close 2nd under: Northern Dancer → St. Simon at 7.03%

Arkansas Derby Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• SLAM!!! I just hope everyone took heed and grabbed Renegade's 48-1 odds in Pool One. That is the beauty of dosage!!! I do believe in our last Top Ten, I stated that Commandment and Renegade will need to be joined at the hip for Derby Day betting and after today, I think that may be the correct way to go. Renegade's performance today was outstanding and like I said in Commandment's assessment, sometimes the best course of action is to stick with those who stood out from the beginning - no need to overthink. All of those 1 and 2 star colts all fell by the wayside, didn't they?! It was a very good weekend of racing and next up will be Potente in the Santa Anita Derby.

4/4/2026 SANTA ANITA DERBY - Santa Anita

SO HAPPY Race Results 9f clear/fast Final Time: 1:49.01

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.91   Triads = 16-19-18

(Configurations remain unchanged)

Runhappy - So Cunning (Blame) Mark Glatt Jockey: Mike Smith

St. Simon: 10.94%

Santa Anita Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• Had to go all the way back to Pool Three to see his original numbers and original Assessment. I stated back then, "Board hit Potential, especially on a "type two" sloppy track." With the new Chef additions this week, these are definitely not winning configurations, but they do qualify for board-hit. He has alot of inbred speed which works very well on the Santa Anita bias at 9f. especially when you're saving energy and ground. I would say he is more in the second tier of the potential Derby players and his stock would most likely rise on a Type Two Sloppy Sealed track.

  
  

• The more important point must deal with Potente. I stated in the Top ten article that this guy (along with Intrepido) were built much better for the 10f's in Kentucky than the 9f's at Santa Anita. I will not beat around the bush with this... In the last prep, the San Felipe, it appeared to me that Potente capitalized off of Brant acting like a "wild rabbit" out on the lead. While the benefit was there for Potente, he was able to run off the pace, which is much more in tune with his breeding. When Baffert's other potential rabbit (Cherokee Nation) stumbled at the gate and missed his lead spot, there went Hernandez straight to the lead. I knew Potente was going to be compromised within the first 10 seconds of that race. Regardless that he was not the most advantaged on the field for this race, the fact remains, the never-ending gate to wire playbook is way over-played at this point. Every single year, over and over again, Baffert's colts are forced to run exactly the same EVEN WHEN THEY HAVE SUCCESSFULLY PROVEN THEMSELVES OFF THE PACE, RUNNING THE WAY THEY WANT TO RUN and THE WAY THEY ARE BRED TO RUN. Baffert receives high dollar, high quality colts who stand out early on and by the end of the preps, they are completely spent from being molded into the clone who came before him. For what purpose could there have possibly been to take him away from his winning style from his last and force a 2.73 colt to run off 46.79 at the half on the lead?? He is not Justify. He is not Pharoah. Somebody please help to make sense of it. The main objective after today's preps (and truly all that mattered today) was to scrutinize Further Ado's performance against Potente's. While I do not believe Potente is at fault by any stretch and I still believe he is a Class A colt, his connections refuse to allow the horse to run freely. This, in turn, has a dire affect. Further Ado did not put Potente to shame today, he put Baffert to shame today.

4/4/2026 WOOD MEMORIAL - Aqueduct

ALBUS Race Results 9f showery/fast Final Time: 1:51.71

DP = 6-10-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 8-2-2-7-8   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.80   Triads = 12-11-17

(Configurations remain unchanged)

Yaupon - Adream (Bernardini) Riley Mott Jockey: Jaime Torres

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Wood Memorial Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ (advantage rose with the showery conditions)

Inbred 10f capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• The mares scale is sufficient and the profile isn't half bad, however, the entire set-up is weak and bland. I'm glad he got a gate. We need more of these types.

4/4/2026 BLUE GRASS STAKES - Keeneland

FURTHER ADO Race Results 9f clear/fast Final Time: 1:49.58

DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.30 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 14-15-19

Updated Configurations: DP = 4-3-13-0-0 (20) DI = 2.08   CD = 0.55

St. Simon: 27.54%

Blue Grass Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• We know the horse loves Kentucky, that's for sure. But keeping things in perspective is important, especially when there is deep favoritism (for both him and Emerging Market - it's a Candy Ride thing!) Even though I don't think he had much in the way of competition, he actually found a way to truly prove to us that he didn't think he had much competition either. He demolished them so badly - it became reminiscent, yet again, of his cousin Shared Belief. He did it before in that Keeneland maiden, and he did it again today. When colts are this talented, they tend to make their competitors look like allowance runners. One of the main reasons why I have kept this guy at a #3 ranking since January 1st and have not moved him forward is because of his triads. His scale and mare index is perfect, and even though the triads do incline properly, the center number is under-par. I am being picky during this prep season until the field settles and will reassess the entire group with the new chef-de-race upgrades. For now, his will and determination in the state of Kentucky is second to none and after the fiasco at Santa Anita, Further Ado and Emerging Market may have a new placement to claim. On a side note, I cannot wait to see this guy tear up that Saratoga track. Back to watching that replay another 10 times too.

4/11/2026 LEXINGTON STAKES - Keeneland

TRENDSETTER Race Results 8.5f clear/fast Final Time: 1:44.51

DP = 2-8-10-0-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 8-2-5-5-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 15-12-16

(Configurations remain unchanged)

St. Simon: 18.75%

• The 20 points for winning this race does not get him a gate.

And that's a Wrap for 2026.