Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.

Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars

9/13/2025 IROQUIOS STAKES - Churchill Downs

SPICE RUNNER Race Results 8f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:36.59

DP = 0-3-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55   CD = 0.21 ANZ = 2.64

Mare Profile = 6-4-5-6-9   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.72   Triads = 15-15-20

Gun Runner - Simple Surprise (Cowboy Cal) Steve Asmussen Jockey: Jose Ortiz

St. Simon: Giants Causeway → Hail to Reason → Plucky Liege

Iroquois Race Placement: Perfect. Running true to history in all aspects. +++++

Inbred 10f Capability: Definitely. All configurations lean directly to stamina dominant. +++++

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥

• This colt inherited zero points in the Brilliant slot and only 3 in his Intermediate slot (depicting inherited speed) and he would need to find additional jets to add to the allotted 10 points in the mare speed points to compete in the Derby. It is early in the game, so his displayed speed side moving forward will need to be monitored as he advances and matures. Bias in this race was quite favorable to his build which does not necessarily translate to a Churchill bias in 8 + months. The stamina is there, now we need to see evidence of pure speed moving forward.

Notable Contenders exiting this race for the Future:

NINE BALL Code of Honor - Alydarla (Henny Hughes) Riley Mott St. Simon: 60.25%

DP = 1-0-6-5-0 (12) DI = 0.50   CD = -0.25 ANZ = 1.35

Mare Profile = 5-3-6-9-5   Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.76   Triads = 14-18-20

Iroquois Race Placement: Too much inbred stamina for this race. ++

Inbred 10f Capability: Definitely. All configurations lean directly to stamina dominant. +++++

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ (Board Hit Player)

• This guy will most likely struggle to compete with true speed horses in the shorter distances. He is not built to unleash early speed. Negative CD at -.25 with an influx of extra dominating mare stamina harsh for the trail but if R. Mott can find a way to capitalize and reserve his speed, he would shine at 10f. Historically perfect Board Hit (not winning) configurations for the Kentucky Derby. Possible AWS route for prep points would enhance his chances for a gate.

9/27/2025 BERESFORD STAKES - Carragh

HAWK MOUNTAIN Race Replay 1600 meters - approx 8f Turf Final Time: 1:43.36 Top RPR: 86

DP = 1-4-12-7-0 (24) DI = 0.85   CD = -0.04 ANZ = 0.85

Mare Profile = 8-5-1-10-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.88   Triads = 14-16-18

Wootton Bassett - Hydrangea (Galileo) Aiden O'Brien Jockey: Ronan Wheelan

Beresford Race Placement: Obviously perfectly set for a turf race. +++++

Inbred 10f Capability: Yes, but very slow. +++++

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: TURF

• He'll remain on turf. But noteworthy, this is Aiden O'Brien's 22nd time in the winner's circle for this race. The master of the Beresford Stakes, even when he's entered the slowest horse ever. This guy is no Luxembourg, that's for sure.

9/27/2025 JUDDMONTE ROYAL LODGE - New Market

BOW ECHO Race Replay 1600 meters - approx 8f Turf Final Time: 1:36.95 Top RPR: 100

DP = 1-5-7-9-0 (22) DI = 0.76   CD = -0.09 ANZ = 0.00

Mare Profile = 3-7-4-11-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.59   Triads = 14-22-22

Night of Thunder - Aristocratic Lady (Invinsible Spirit) George Bougley Jockey: Billy Loughnane

Juddmonte Race Placement: Configurations are perfect. +++++

Inbred 10f Capability: Definitely. All configurations lean directly to stamina dominant. +++++

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: TURF

• Trainer George Bougley stated this is the best horse he's ever trained. That said, no chance he moves off turf, and certainly no reason to even consider it - not with those configurations. Quintessential turf numbers and one of the main reasons why Epicenter stood out like a sore thumb in 2021 and 2022. Also the reason why Nine Ball from the Iroquois needs monitoring.

10/4/2025 AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES - Santa Anita

10/4/2025 BREEDERS FUTURITY - Keeneland

10/4/2025 CHAMPAGNE STAKES - Aqueduct

10/5/2025 JEAN-LUC LEGARDERE - Longchamp