2026 Derby Prep Winners - Part One

Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.

Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars

9/13/2025 IROQUIOS STAKES - Churchill Downs

SPICE RUNNER Race Results 8f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:36.59

DP = 0-3-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55   CD = 0.21 ANZ = 2.64

Mare Profile = 6-4-5-6-9   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.72   Triads = 15-15-20

Gun Runner - Simple Surprise (Cowboy Cal) Steve Asmussen Jockey: Jose Ortiz

St. Simon: Giants Causeway → Hail to Reason → Plucky Liege

Iroquois Race Placement: Perfect. Running true to history in all aspects. +++++

Inbred 10f Capability: Definitely. All configurations lean directly to stamina dominant. +++++

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ Update 12/21: ♥ ♥

• This colt inherited zero points in the Brilliant slot and only 3 in his Intermediate slot (depicting inherited speed) and he would need to find additional jets to add to the allotted 10 points in the mare speed points to compete in the Derby. It is early in the game, so his displayed speed side moving forward will need to be monitored as he advances and matures. Bias in this race was quite favorable to his build which does not necessarily translate to a Churchill bias in 8 + months. The stamina is there, now we need to see evidence of pure speed moving forward.

9/27/2025 BERESFORD STAKES - Carragh

HAWK MOUNTAIN Race Replay 1600 meters - approx 8f Turf Final Time: 1:43.36 Top RPR: 86

DP = 1-4-12-7-0 (24) DI = 0.85   CD = -0.04 ANZ = 0.85

Mare Profile = 8-5-1-10-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.88   Triads = 14-16-18

Wootton Bassett - Hydrangea (Galileo) Aiden O'Brien Jockey: Ronan Wheelan

Beresford Race Placement:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: TURF

• He'll remain on turf. But noteworthy, this is Aiden O'Brien's 22nd time in the winner's circle for this race. The master of the Beresford Stakes, even when he's entered the slowest horse ever. This guy is no Luxembourg, that's for sure.

9/27/2025 JUDDMONTE ROYAL LODGE - New Market

BOW ECHO Race Replay 1600 meters - approx 8f Turf Final Time: 1:36.95 Top RPR: 100

DP = 1-5-7-9-0 (22) DI = 0.76   CD = -0.09 ANZ = 0.00

Mare Profile = 3-7-4-11-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.59   Triads = 14-22-22

Night of Thunder - Aristocratic Lady (Invinsible Spirit) George Bougley Jockey: Billy Loughnane

Juddmonte Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: TURF

• Trainer George Bougley stated this is the best horse he's ever trained. That said, no chance he moves off turf, and certainly no reason to even consider it - not with those configurations. Quintessential turf numbers and one of the main reasons why Epicenter stood out like a sore thumb in 2021 and 2022. Also the reason why Nine Ball from the Iroquois needs monitoring.

10/4/2025 AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES - Santa Anita

INTREPIDO Race Results 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:37.03

DP = 1-8-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 4.60

Mare Profile = 3-6-5-10-4   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.74   Triads = 14-21-19

Maximus Mischief - Overly Indulgent (Pleasantly Perfect) Jeff Mullins Jockey: Hector Berrios

St. Simon: Affirmed → Sir Gallahad → Galopin (St. Simon's Sire)

American Pharoah Race Placement: ♥ ♥ Rated 5th out of 6 contenders in historical advantages.

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Outdid himself in this race. Showed ability to exchange energy, distribute it differently and sustain with acceleration. That was a tall ask and he delivered. Outsmarting 4 Baffert-trained entries out the 6 contenders, over-riding all of the percentages he faced here shows heart and determination. Very nice configurations for the Derby.

Notable Contenders exiting this race for the Future:

KRISTOFFERSON Nyquist - Impasse (Quality Road) Bob Baffert St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 8-1-6-7-7   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.85   Triads = 15-14-20

American Pharoah Race Placement:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• He was built perfectly for this prep, but came in dead last. One bad race does not discount the chart nor the potential found within these configurations. A second performance like this one and then we'll take the stand against, but if he reverts back to his maiden race and shows that high quality again, then we'll pick up where we left off. Nowhere is it written that a horse must go undefeated in his career and one clunker does not define a 2 year old. But two in a row certainly might.

10/4/2025 CLAIBORNE BREEDERS FUTURITY - Keeneland

TED NOFFEY Race Results 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.98

DP = 1-6-1-0-0 (8) DI = 15.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 19.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-9-9-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.14   Triads = 22-28-20

Into Mischief - Streak of Luck (Old Fashioned) Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

St. Simon: 7.03%

Breeders Futurity Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• This is a very nice horse moving forward and all along the trail. At this point and in terms of the 10f Derby, caution will persist until after his 9f prep. Unfortunately, his preps will most likely be at tracks with severe speed biases, which cater to his chefs profiles (both Roman and ANZ) and even the Mare balance which descends - but those triads are PHENOMINAL and do deserve the extra star but at the moment, best to proceed without discounting the two negative factors at this stage of the game. He will be right at home on the DelMar surface for the BC Juvenile and the extra 1/2 furlong uptick later should be easy pickings, but we'll have to wait and see. We can only hope that its not at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby, but most likely it will be that same conducive bias for his breeding. Best not to get ahead of ourselves too early. Into Mischief's other star son, Sovereignty, conquered the same exact unbalanced mare scale, but his indexes were 4.33/7.00. Ted is sporting 3x more than that in inherited speed across the board and at 9f and under that is a dream set-up (especially on those speed biases), but at 10f it could prove to be a hurdle. His eventual 9f prep will reveal his distributed energy none-the-less and if on target, he'll upgrade to 5 stars - until then, he is good to go as the advantaged star of the show in all of his upcoming preps.

10/4/2025 CHAMPAGNE STAKES - Aqueduct

NAPOLEON SOLO Race Results 8f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:34.57

DP = 3-13-4-0-0 (20) DI = 9.00   CD = 0.95 ANZ = 10.20

Mare Profile = 5-8-2-6-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-16-16

Liam's Map - Atomic Blonde (Scat Daddy) Chad Summers Jockey: Joel Rosario

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Breeders Futurity Race Placement:  ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥

• Five out of the nine entries in this race had troubled or bad starts right out of the gate, including the winner. Commendable 8f gate to wire win with his configurations but hard-pressed to find any type of favor traveling 10f. With 9x the inherited speed over stamina (10x with prominent non-chefs attached) along with the lackluster mare profile and poor Derby triads, he's not likely to capitalize in a Classic run in Kentucky at all.

10/5/2025 JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE - Longchamp

PUERTO RICO Race Replay about 7f Turf Final Time: 1:21.53 Top RPR: 109

DP = 2-2-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76   CD = -0.05 ANZ = 1.08

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-5-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.81   Triads = 16-16-18

Wootten Bassett - April Showers (Galileo) Aiden O'Brien C. Soumillon

Lagardere Race Placement:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: TURF

• Even without Ryan Moore, Aiden O'Brien continues to shine as the top turf trainer in the world. Wootten Bassett and Galileo in the first 2 generations of this chart should see him moving along with a very nice career ahead - just not on dirt.

10/25/2025 FUTURITY TROPHY - Doncaster

HAWK MOUNTAIN       Race Replay          1600 meters - approx 8f Turf Final Time: 1:43.85 Top RPR: 107

DP = 1-4-12-7-0 (24) DI = 0.85   CD = -0.04 ANZ = 0.85

Mare Profile = 8-5-1-10-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.88   Triads = 14-16-18

Wootton Bassett - Hydrangea (Galileo) Aiden O'Brien Jockey: Ronan Wheelan

Beresford Race Placement:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: TURF

• Aiden's 12th time in the Winner's Circle for this race but Aiden also held 3 of the 5 contenders. Hawk Mountain has progressed from the Beresford win from above, but still he'll remain a turf boy. These wins simply solidify Aiden's mastery of 2 year olds and in their preparation for successful futures ahead. Still no match for the likes of Luxembourg, Troy or Auguste, but he does like to rack up wins never-the-less.

10/26/2025 STREET SENSE STAKES - Churchill Downs

INCREDIBOLT Results Chart 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:44.67

DP = 5-10-10-1-0 (26) DI = 3.33   CD = 0.73 ANZ = 3.33

Mare Profile = 11-3-3-5-11   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.93   Triads = 17-11-19

Bolt D'Oro - Sapphire Spitfire (Awesome Again) Riley Mott Jockey: Jamie Torres

St. Simon: 31.25%

Street Sense Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment:  ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• Technically, there are some excellent points dotted within these configurations, but then again, there are a few items that are off. It is hard to gauge at this point in time if the good side ultimately takes over the bad, so it is best to keep it neutral for the time being. On one side we have evidence of adherence to his 3.33 speed inheritance (late speed) and we also have a good handle on his stamina side based on his style of running. This horse ran into very slow early fractions, so he was not handed the win on a silver platter - but his mares are so bookended (11 points in the brilliant and the same in the Professional) that it is hard to pinpoint which side (or both) he is gaining the main influence from them. But then, he has 31.25% line breeding to St. Simon which is fantastic for the 10f and could be the basis for the late running style. It's a Catch 22 when trying to read his inheritance, especially the mare side, at this point in time. The Medaglia d'Oro plus the Awesome Again influence in the second generations of his chart is very intriguing, it is a toss up with those mares but St. Simon could override. Staying safe with 3.5 stars for the time being until he performs on a much faster bias in a future contest.

Notable Contenders exiting this race for the Future:

VERY CONNECTED       Connect - CJ's Gal (Awesome Again) Kenneth McPeek St. Simon: Deputy Minister → Bunty Lawless

DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 8-2-4-12-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.85   Triads = 14-18-21

Street Sense Race Placement: ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Unlike Incredibolt, there is no guessing where the favoritism lies within his mare's structure. 101% Stamina. He bumped the start in this race and still rallied just like the winner into slow early calls. It's a shame that we have one more year at Saratoga at 10f for the Belmont Stakes because this horse has advantaged 12f Belmont written all over him. The distance of this race was way under his wheelhouse and he should get a boost as he moves ahead in his distance. He has 10f easily and his progression since his maiden looks very good and promising with these configurations. The main stand out element is that his workouts are very fast and impressive against his set-up. He is one to keep on the sidelines and watch as we go.

10/31/2025 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE - DelMar

TED NOFFEY Race Results 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:42.25

DP = 1-6-1-0-0 (8) DI = 15.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 19.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-9-9-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.14   Triads = 22-28-20

Into Mischief - Streak of Luck (Old Fashioned) Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

St. Simon: 7.03%

Breeders Futurity Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• A few things to unpack here. Breeding suggested he would love the DelMar surface and he did. This would then correspond very well to a Churchill bias in May. So that checks one box off. His style of running is to keep pace, reserving some thunder for the final plunge and surging to the wire. Brant handed him the perfect pace for his style with 23.46 46.99 1:10.82 calls. A far cry from the 44.53 he was capable of and which he needed to pull off in order to swipe some of that ending power from Ted. The slower pace was a gift, however, Ted was primed perfectly in all aspects so it probably wouldn't have mattered in the long run at 8.5f. His rating jumps from a 4 to a 4.5 for now, not the full 5 stars yet solely based on the 15.00/19.00 indexes and the 10f distance. He'll conquer his 9f prep race with his eyes closed but we need to keep things in perspective as each race unfolds. His mares are untouchable as far as Derby Worthy in the stamina department, absolutely killer - its boils down to the massive 15x speed inheritance that still needs some caution when judging a 2 year old against his performances.

11/29/2025 CATTLEYA SHO - Tokyo Racecourse

SATONO VOYAGE Race Replay approx. 8f - clear fast Final Time: 1:37.4

DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 3-9-4-8-4   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.95   Triads = 16-21-16

Into Mischief - Jolie Olimpica (Drosselmeyer) Hiroyasu Tanaka Jockey: K. Tosaki

St. Simon: 22.6%

Cattleya Sho Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥

• Typical Into Mischief configurations with a much stronger dip in the triads but evenly balanced in scale. He was built for the race and performed accordingly. Had that wire been at 8.5f though, he would have been overtaken by Don Erectus. He fit the race at hand, he took his trophy, but the star of the show was the second place surging finisher Don Erectus. Satono would need to prove himself in terms of pure energy distribution going further to even be considered a Derby player. Not yet.

Notable Contenders exiting this race for the Future:

DON ERECTUS

DP = 2-1-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 1-4-8-10-3   Speed = 5   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.58   Triads = 13-22-21

Danon Legend - Dona Primo (Furioso) Noboru Takagi Jockey: A. Sugawara

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy (2nd is St. Simon at 21.6%)

Cattleya Sho Race Placement: ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• This guy was given 1 star for race placement and 4 stars for the Kentucky Derby but after seeing the performance and how he tackled this short 8f very un-advantaged race, he shoots up to the highest rating at 5 stars for the Derby. Love love love seeing that 1 star race placement with the ability to tackle that disadvantage and present the necessary speed to go along with it. He smoked a race that he was not built for in the least. That is exactly what we are looking for along the trail. A 10f+ colt with the ability to beat speed demons at a short mile. WOW! This is the type of performance you want to see from a 2.20 colt who is massively loaded in mare stamina underneath. Spectacular speedy performance coming from a horse who is loaded in 12f Belmont stamina, traveling from way out of it and unleashing raw and powerful speed late - way under his optimum. He took 2nd place, surging at the wire and he ran out of track. He will absolutely upgrade in wins as the distance extends. Extremely promising colt if he stays on the trail. Second place finisher here fits the Kentucky Derby much more than the winner. He completely outdid himself given the task vs. his breeding. We'll see how Takagi proceeds with him. My kinda horse! This colt is holding a set of gorgeous Kentucky Derby configurations and his displayed speed against it is perfect.

11/29/2025 KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB - Churchill

FURTHER ADO Race Results 8.5f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:43.33

DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.30 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 14-15-19

Gun Runner - Sky Dreamer (Sky Mesa) Brad Cox Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

St. Simon: 27.54%

Kentucky Jockey Club Race Placement: ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Historically, Further Ado was not advantaged for this race (just like his maiden) and he showed off what a quality horse he truly is. He is a 10f+ horse, not an 8.5f speedster. This is exactly the type of speed that you want to see attached to a classic runner. He ran most of the race 4 wide which was the best place for him and he held his own with a very speedy pace up front. Exceptional. As far as comparison to Ted Noffey exiting this race vs. the Juvenile - Ted performed on the exceptionally speedy 8.5f DelMar bias which complimented his breeding with a 5 star race placement and finished the race in 1:42.25. Further Ado was on a less speedy cold bias in a 2 star race placement and was only off in the final time by 1/2 a second. Further Ado, with his 1.86 index, is performing at a level that dominates all of the current players to date and is on par with the 15.00 Ted Noffey. This is a very special horse.

Notable Contenders exiting this race for the Future:

UNIVERSE Global Campaign - Equityforall (Quality Road) Kenny McPeek St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 11-2-4-5-12   Speed = 13   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.85   Triads = 17-11-21

Kentucky Jockey Club Race Placement: ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• "If he can somehow place ahead of Further Ado (and/or the speed guys Cherokee Nation and Soldier), then he has something over and above his configurations while still holding 10f capability. That would be highly meaningful for this horse moving forward." His performance here was extremely meaningful, he beat the highly advantaged speedsters in this race while holding that 10f ability. Very commendable performance and nice display of raw speed to compete at the wire. Strong potential to post a win in his next and moving forward if he runs without Further Ado in the gate with him.

12/6/2025 REMSEN STAKES - Aqueduct

PALADIN Race Results 9f clear/fast Poor Start Final Time: 1:50.97

Gun Runner - Secret Sigh (Tapit) Chad Brown Jockey: Flavien Prat

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.71

Mare Profile = 5-4-6-6-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-16-18 (2nd gen Tapit)

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon 12.5%

Remsen Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Five Stars from Pool One carries directly to the winter track at Aqueduct. The similarities with the performances of both first place winner Paladin and 2nd place finisher Renegade are almost exact to the 2023 Remsen with Dornoch and Sierra Leone. Same styles, same breeding balances, same high quality, same fight down the stretch. Even the final times were as close as you can get. Normally, a 2.43 second generation Tapit boy would not garner 4 or 5 stars for the Kentucky Derby but the way this horse runs, his style, the three point spread with the mares, the upgrade in speed with an ANZ figure at 4.71 plus his determination made him a standout from his maiden and will continue. The funny thing is, the balance in his scale and his running style lean more towards Dornoch even though he is the son of Gun Runner like his kin Sierra Leone. Renegade ran like Sierra Leone! Hopefully, many here at the DHC grabbed ahold of those 40-1 odds at Pool One. This horse will be nowhere near those high odds come Derby Day (Same could be said about Renegade at 48-1 for Pool One). Paladin can run the 10f with his eyes closed, he runs up front, and his determination is spectacular.

Notable Contenders exiting this race for the Future:

RENEGADE Into Mischief - Spice is Nice (Curlin) Todd Pletcher St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 18-22-18

Remsen Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Another 5 star rated colt from Pool One who resembled Sierra Leone from 2023's edition of the Remsen but is the son of Into Mischief. Extremely well balanced both top and bottom with typical triads. He was not as advantaged on this track as Paladin but he did very well running 4 and 5 wide throughout the race. This guy ran a heck of alot further than the winner and still had muscle at the end. He is built properly for Kentucky, and he will find favor on a faster track moving forward.

COURTING Curlin - Cavorting (Bernardini) Todd Pletcher St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

DP = 8-10-10-0-0 (28) DI = 4.60   CD = 0.93 ANZ = 4.60

Mare Profile = 5-4-0-8-10   Speed = 9   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.50   Triads = 9-12-18

Remsen Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• Even though this guy has massive chef speed (4.60) on top of massive mare stamina (9 point spread) I fall short of a high rating for the time being. Mixed feelings with the 3 races held at Aqueduct so far but Todd Pletcher is very good with placing his charges in races that will help to draw out the opposite of what the horse would naturally gravitate to. Courting is a full brother to Clairiere as well as a full brother to Judge Miller. Both of those horses excelling on the fast biases out West (along with Parx - Clairiere's Cotillian win) and neither at 10f. With the massive amount of inbred mare stamina, the fact that Todd has kept this horse competing at Aqueduct is so telling and points directly to proper race training for a 10f run and/or an explosion on a faster bias. Courting won when he exhibited that 4.60 speed going gate to wire on the lead in his last but he struggled a bit when left to the back in his other 2 races. Unfortunately, he had a troubled start here and also was 8 wide at one point which was not ideal, however, it certainly did not show much allegiance to that mare scale. Any race away from the Aqueduct bias, with a proper break in order to get his true running style, and faster on that track will tell us which way this guy wants to go. The configurations are gorgeous for 10f and deserve a higher rating but he needs to show allegiance to both the top and the bottom while posting much better stats along the way. Not so sure that he is capturing it all yet. If we look at his full brother, Judge Miller, who is currently competing out West (of course with the same exact configurations) he is posting faster figures but only doing well when running fairly short on that bias - conducive bias for the Chefs but not for the mares which splits the horse. This could be happening here as well. We just need more evidence away from Aqueduct.

12/13/2025 Los Alamitos Futurity - Los Alamitos

LITMUS TEST Race Results 8.5f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:42.38

Nyquist - Study Hard (Malibu Moon) Bob Baffert Jockey: Juan Hernandez

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 7-1-7-4-7   Speed = 8   Stamina = 11   Index = 0.88   Triads = 15-12-18

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Los Alamitos Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥

• These configurations are historically incorrect for what is necessary for the 10f Kentucky Derby. While a scattered few who won this particular race in the past had gone on to hit the board in the Derby (Journalism 2nd, Improbable 4th, and Pioneerof the Nile 2nd) it really is not the best Derby prep. Regardless, there are much better prospects on the West Coast.

12/17/2025 Zen Nippon Nisai Yushan - Kawasaki

PYROMANCER Race Replay approx 8f wet/sloppy Final Time: 1:44.20

Pyro - Centrifuge (Hard Spun) Keiji Yoshimura Jockey: Mirai Iwata

DP = 6-8-14-0-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 2.56

Mare Profile = 7-5-5-7-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-17-19

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥

• Son of Pyro with an American chart holding half decent Derby configurations, however, if the final time of 1:44.20 for this "less than" 8f race was truly recorded properly, then this race was fairly underwhelming. Therefore, while his set-up is strong, the forward style speed in his performance itself leaves a bit to be desired. He was up there with that pace and basically responsible for that dismal final time. We'll keep him neutral for the time being at 3 stars and await his next.

Notable Contenders exiting this race for the Future:

TAMAMO FREESIA Le Vent Se Leve - Tamamo El Dorado (Gold Allure) Yuuki Ohashi

DP = 1-0-5-0-0 (6) DI = 1.40   CD = 0.33 ANZ = 1.18

Mare Profile = 6-2-2-11-8   Speed = 8   Stamina = 19   Index = 0.55   Triads = 10-15-21

St. Simon: Sunday Silence → Mahmoud Race Replay

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Even though the race did not set the world on fire, this Second place finisher would not get penalized for the final time because she had no input upon it until the very final stage. Surging from the rear like a freight train, this FILLY, from the great Le Vent Se Leve, simply ran completely out of track in the end. In the rear along the rail, she weaved her way through a wall of horses, finally bursting on the far outside. She just missed making it to that wire. Imperative to watch the replay, keeping your eyes on Gate One. Spectacular effort running into a slow front tier. Smothered in stamina both top and bottom, with a 1.40 chef index and a lean in balance of a whopping 11 points to the good in Mare stamina over speed. Insane amount of inbred stamina if she does indeed take ahold of those numbers (it certainly looks as if she does). If she doesn't continue on the Derby Trail, then she should at least be recognized for a potential beast moving forward in her career. She definitely takes after her father when she hits that stretch. Very nice prospect, although I could be a bit biased being a daughter of Le Vent, but that late effort and those configurations are extremely promising moving forward.

12/20/2025 Springboard Mile - Remington Park

EXPRESS KID Race Results 8f Clear fast Final Time: 1:38.99

Bodexpress - Sensationalize (Street Sense) Wade Rarick Jockey: Jose Alvarez

DP = 3-4-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 5-5-3-10-4   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.86   Triads = 13-18-17

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Springboard Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥

• Out of the twelve races run on the card, eleven of them were won by gate to wire and lead tier. Only one race was won by a rear runner, showing the forward style major bias of the day. Express Kid won this race gate to wire as well, capitalizing off of his 5.67 speed index and running style for the short 8f. While the spread in the mare scale isn't half bad, the rest of that line still falls extremely short for a bid at the 10f in Kentucky. Not so sure why this race remains on the Derby Trail, as only one winner had gone on to make a name for himself long after the Triple Crown was even over - and that was Senor Buscador in 2023. There is no chance for this colt in the Derby and highly doubtful he even makes a gate.

12/20/2025 Gun Runner Stakes - Fairgrounds

CHIP HONCHO Race Results 8.5f Clear fast Final Time: 1:44.76

DP = 1-2-6-3-0 (12) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.08 ANZ = 1.00

Mare Profile = 6-6-2-10-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.77   Triads = 14-18-19

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Gun Runner Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• Important to note about this race; As a listed Derby prep in 2021, there has now been five winners which include Chip Honcho, Built, Track Phantom, Jace's Road and Epicenter. All five won this race either Gate to Wire or Stalking the lead, with basically the exact final time, and all five with stamina leaning configurations. No speedsters for this race obviously, therefore the race placement was excellent for Chip. With the major point spread in the mares balance towards stamina along with the 1.00 index, seems fitting that he excelled here. However, the race itself unfolded and ended fairly boring and unimpressive with all 6 competitors (including the winner) losing steam. It appears that Asmussen is trying hard to turn him into an Epicenter, but that is a tall order and highly unlikely. He'll stay neutral for now and we'll see if his energy distribution could possibly rise in the future because it would absolutely need to in order to compete in Kentucky. When "stamina" horses run up front, they are running against the grain of their inheritance and only the cream of the crop could possibly take hold of the other side (the speed side) and sustain it for the full duration - like Epicenter. That is a rare occurrence, but is easily pointed out as a two year old. At 8f, not impossible - at 9f and 10f, you need to be performing at a Dornoch and Epicenter level every single time. Chip barely survived it at 8.5f. Even though the configurations are more than ample historically for a board hit spot in the Derby, and as a lead tier runner, so far, this horse has not displayed that type of evidence with regard to the energy distribution and the "sustaining speed" side. Based on this race, highly doubt he will.

Part Two to begin with next Derby Preps - The Jerome and Smarty Jones on Jan 3, 2026.