2026 Derby Prep Winners - Part Two

Continuation from 2026 Derby Prep Winners - Part One

Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.

Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars

1/3/2026 SMARTY JONES STAKES - Oaklawn Park

STRATEGIC RISK Race Results 8.5f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:45.06

DP = 3-4-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 10-2-3-10-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-15-19

Noble Bird - Strategize (Afleet Alex) Mark Casse Jockey: Javier Castellano

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Smarty Jones Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment:  ♥ ♥

• There is truly nothing terribly bad with these numbers but for the simple fact that they are bland. The race itself over the years has been quite bland as well. Some who have come out on top in this race made a little noise afterwards like Far Right, Will Take Charge and Flat Out but not when it came to the Kentucky Derby. Even Caleb's Posse had some success as a miler. There just isn't a whole lot to grab onto here with that glaring 10 in the first slot of the mare's profile and the 1.00 mare index. It's simply not good enough.

1/3/2026 JEROME STAKES - Aqueduct

MY WORLD Race Results 8f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:38.96

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 10-5-3-6-7   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.22   Triads = 18-14-16 (2nd gen Tapit)

Essential Quality - Quebec (Into Mischief) Brad Cox Jockey: Jamie Rodriguez

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Jerome Stakes Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Knowing that 1st and 2nd generation Tapit offspring have zero success in the Kentucky Derby unless they are blessed with an index greater than 3.20 - My World luckily has a 4.00 - which gives him at least a board hit shot. Tapit's need speed inheritance to offset killer stamina and this guy at least inherited it. The race placement on the Aqueduct bias suits that Tapit backing and the fact that he is smokin' at Aqueduct gives raw evidence that he has accepted that stamina helping hand. The other huge feature is the damsire - Into Mischief. The fact that he wanted no parts of his 6f maiden at Saratoga but connected with a win at the same distance at Aqueduct shows a bond with that inbred stamina. Now, he MUST display that Into Mischief factor and his 4.00/5.00 speedy index AWAY from Aqueduct so we can have the proper indication of the other side of his inheritance. That is absolutely necessary on a Spring Churchill bias. Other than the fact that the Jerome Stakes doesn't produce much for the Derby, this guy at least has some potential with his breeding. Competing away from Aqueduct is crucial to see if can connect with that speed on a slicker bias - we're looking for an explosion with that 4.00/5.00 inheritance.

1/17/2026 LECOMTE STAKES - Fairgrounds