2026 Derby Prep Winners - Part Two

Continuation from 2026 Derby Prep Winners - Part One

Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.

Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars

1/3/2026 SMARTY JONES STAKES - Oaklawn Park

STRATEGIC RISK Race Results 8.5f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:45.06

DP = 3-4-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 10-2-3-10-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-15-19

Noble Bird - Strategize (Afleet Alex) Mark Casse Jockey: Javier Castellano

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Smarty Jones Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment:  ♥ ♥

• There is truly nothing terribly bad with these numbers but for the simple fact that they are bland. The race itself over the years has been quite bland as well. Some who have come out on top in this race made a little noise afterwards like Far Right, Will Take Charge and Flat Out but not when it came to the Kentucky Derby. Even Caleb's Posse had some success as a miler. There just isn't a whole lot to grab onto here with that glaring 10 in the first slot of the mare's profile and the 1.00 mare index. It's simply not good enough.

1/3/2026 JEROME STAKES - Aqueduct

MY WORLD Race Results 8f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:38.96

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 10-5-3-6-7   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.22   Triads = 18-14-16 (2nd gen Tapit)

Essential Quality - Quebec (Into Mischief) Brad Cox Jockey: Jamie Rodriguez

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Jerome Stakes Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Knowing that 1st and 2nd generation Tapit offspring have zero success in the Kentucky Derby unless they are blessed with an index greater than 3.20 - My World luckily has a 4.00 - which gives him at least a board hit shot. Tapit's need speed inheritance to offset killer stamina and this guy at least inherited it. The race placement on the Aqueduct bias suits that Tapit backing and the fact that he is smokin' at Aqueduct gives raw evidence that he has accepted that stamina helping hand. The other huge feature is the damsire - Into Mischief. The fact that he wanted no parts of his 6f maiden at Saratoga but connected with a win at the same distance at Aqueduct shows a bond with that inbred stamina. Now, he MUST display that Into Mischief factor and his 4.00/5.00 speedy index AWAY from Aqueduct so we can have the proper indication of the other side of his inheritance. That is absolutely necessary on a Spring Churchill bias. Other than the fact that the Jerome Stakes doesn't produce much for the Derby, this guy at least has some potential with his breeding. Competing away from Aqueduct is crucial to see if can connect with that speed on a slicker bias - we're looking for an explosion with that 4.00/5.00 inheritance.

1/17/2026 LECOMTE STAKES - Fairgrounds

GOLDEN TEMPO Race Results 8.5f Cloudy 58° Fast Final Time: 1:44.98

DP = 7-8-10-1-0 (26) DI = 3.33   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 6-4-4-5-10   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.69   Triads = 14-13-19

Curlin - Carrumba (Bernardini) Cherie DeVaux Jockey: Jose Ortiz

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Lecomte Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

• The balance and scale of his configurations are nicely placed, affording him ample inheritance to run 10f+. There is nothing wrong with the balance at all, and it is quite promising at face value. At this stage, however, two items give pause regarding confidence in the Derby. First, the triads sit 50-50 historically when positioned underneath the milder 3.33/3.67 indexes, with the lower end of the speed spectrum on top and two-thirds of his triads under par - picky, perhaps, but at this point in the game, caution is warranted while awaiting bigger and better things. Second, while he delivered a very worthy performance in the Lecomte, the horse remains pace dependent. Of course, this is not inherently a negative for the Derby -we have seen unrealistic lead fractions in recent editions, and many other points winners this year are also severely pace dependent. They are capturing points more on the faults of their competitors than on their own merits so to speak. This is precisely why horses like Ted Noffey, Further Ado, Thunderously, Commandment, and some others stand out: their points appear more merit or talent based rather than capitalized off of severely inferior lead opponents. Only time will reveal how his configurations hold up against much stronger foes, and if they do, he will rise in the ranks. We're in no rush.

1/23/2026 UAE 2000 GUINEAS - Meydan Racecourse

SIX SPEED Race Replay 8f Clear/Fast Final Time: 1:38.02

DP = 4-4-13-1-0 (22) DI = 1.93   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.47

Mare Profile = 8-8-3-5-7   Speed = 16   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.23   Triads = 19-16-15

Not This Time - Browse (Medaglia d'Oro) Seemar Bhupat Jockey: Mickael Barzalona

St. Simon: 18%

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ +

Beautiful looking colt takes the UAE 2000 Guineas Gate to Wire in a phenomenal final time. Sold as a yearling at Keeneland and shipped overseas, the Son of Not This Time flashes speeds in typical fashion. Index at 1.93 plus the 18% top linebreeding to St. Simon is very substantial but the clear reversal in stamina balance through the mares scale is historically backwards for the Kentucky Derby. Very nice speedy horse but mares bloodlines have major disadvantage at Churchill.

1/31/2026 HOLY BULL STAKES - Gulfstream

NEARLY Race Results 8.5f Cloudy/Fast Final Time: 1:44.52

DP = 2-2-12-0-0 (16) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.38 ANZ = 2.33

Mare Profile = 8-9-3-5-8   Speed = 17   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.17   Triads = 20-17-16

Not This Time - IB Prospecting (Mineshaft) Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

St. Simon: 32.8%

Holy Bull Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥

• For the Pool Three ratings article posted on Jan 15th, DHC stated, "Historically, mares are completely backwards for the Derby. Excellent for the Trail though" and he was given a 2 star rating for the 10f Kentucky Derby. Absolutely nothing changes from that initial analysis. He is built incredibly for the 9f and under Derby Preps but his mares contribution, scale and balance is completely backwards historically for the 10f Derby. His sire, Not This Time produces speedy offspring that are headstrong and determined but not all of them have configurations like Epicenter did. The only saving grace that this colt may have past the 9f mark is the 32.8% top linebreeding to St. Simon, which by all accounts is spectacular in terms of stamina potential. But the 4 point spread favoring speed in that mare scale is way off and can't be disregarded. Triads sit on a severe decline. It's simply backwards and favors speed to a very strong degree. This is why he performs so adeptly now. This colt is a very strong contender on the Trail and looks to easily rack up enough points along the way for a Derby gate, but I stand by the historical significance of the lopsided mare balance that sits beneath the sire Not This Time. If the 145 year old influence of St. Simon finds a way to dominate here, then he'll make it on a 10f track and I will be wrong.

2/6/2026 WITHERS STAKES - Aqueduct

TALK TO ME JIMMY Race Results 9f Cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:51.68

DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 6-7-5-7-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.33   Triads = 18-19-15

Modernist - Prairie Trip (Trippi) Rudy Rodriguez Jockey: Ruben Silvera

St. Simon: 11.72%

Withers Race Placement: ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥

• With only 2 chefs located way back in his 4th generation; A.P. Indy (I,C) and Danzig (I, C), his mares would need to be highly configured. Unfortunately for Rudy, this horse shoots right from the gate and runs gate to wire - which is directly in line with those mares configurations. For the Derby, the balance is backwards, the scale is wrong and the mare index is way too high. Kudos for a very nice gate to wire win on the 9f Aqueduct surface (his .50 chef CD helped!) as he was not the best built for that particular race. But hard-pressed to endure 10f in a 20 horse gate. He'd need a perfect rail trip and even then, he'd be slowing up prior to the final turn. The reines side is just not there.

2/6/2026 SOUTHWEST STAKES - Oaklawn

SILENT TACTIC Race Results 8.5f clear/fast Final Time: 1:44.85

DP = 3-8-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.89

Mare Profile = 7-4-3-7-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.81   Triads = 14-14-18 (2nd gen Tapit)

Tacitus - Magical Sign (Gun Runner) Mark Casse Jockey: Cristian Torres

St. Simon: 18.75%

Southwest Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• There is no question with the 10f+ distance with this guy. Not only does he have Tapit in his second generation, he also has the Gun Runner/Candy Ride line plus 18.75% top linebreeding to St. Simon. On top of that, his mare scale, even with its faults in the triads, he still uncharacteristically leans 4 points to the good to the stamina side. Combine all 3 of those points and he is 101% endurance. With inbred stamina to the hilt - his running style goes right with it. He runs directly in line with his inheritance. Anther who may be pace dependent, however, when do we get a slow pace in the Derby? The reason why this horse gets 4 stars as opposed to 3 stars as a Tapit boy is because he crosses the 3.20 threshold. Alternatively, the reason why he does not get the full 5 stars is for the same reason - Tapit's hit the board in the Derby - one has never taken the roses. One of these days that curse may be lifted and it could come for this guy built like this if the early pace is outrageous, he remains unscathed out of the gate, and at least 5 other rear guys don't have better late speed backing. This guy has severe endurance and easy 10f sustainability. He sits on the cusp with his inbred speed to balance it out.

2/7/2026 ROBERT B. LEWIS - Santa Anita

PLUTARCH Race Results 8f clear/fast Final Time: 1:37.02

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 7-6-4-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-17-19

Into Mischief - Stellar Wind (Curlin) Bob Baffert Jockey: Florent Geroux

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy at 9.38% - Close 2nd under: Northern Dancer → St. Simon at 8.98%

Robert B Lewis Race Placement: ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• There is alot to unpack here with both prep winners today. Both Plutarch and Renegade were given 5 star ratings back on October 29, 2025 for the Pool One Futures Article and they certainly outdid themselves today. Ironically, both have major inbred similarities as well. Both colts from sire Into Mischief and also out of daughters of Curlin. Plutarch proved today that he can commit to different running styles which is a dream scenario for the Kentucky Derby. He dropped down in distance from his 9f maiden - on turf no less - and jumped right into a sprinters paradise where he had NO ADVANTAGE whatsoever and slammed that race. In the words of Justin Bieber..."SLIDE CITY! SLIDE CITY!" This horse slid right into that front running position in between two colts and beat those milers on that slick Santa Anita bias like a Champ. He's got the proven stamina, he has determined speed, he's got Ribot and Flower Bowl, he has Turf under his belt, he's a versatile runner, and he has a very resolute trainer with Baffert. I'll say it now, this horse is a rock solid WIN PLAYER for Louisville, and for Pimlico and for Saratoga. Plutarch may have just slid himself right into DHC's # 1. "SLIDE CITY!"

• Side note: INTREPIDO redeemed himself from his performance in the BC Juvenile, which is what we needed to see during Pool Three - but he still was no match for Plutarch. He'll remain at 4 stars.

2/7/2026 SAM F. DAVIS - Tampa Bay Downs

RENEGADE Race Results 8.5f clear/fast Final Time: 1:43.54

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 18-22-18

Into Mischief - Spice Is Nice (Curlin) Todd Pletcher Jockey: Irad Ortiz

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy at 10.16% - Close 2nd under: Northern Dancer → St. Simon at 7.03%

Sam F Davis Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Very closely related to Plutarch in many ways but this guy probably won't add forward running into his repertoire. That's fine, he's a beast from the rear and there's no reason to rock that boat. This guy is NOT pace dependent like a few of the other rear runners with Derby points. He ran into fairly slow early calls and none of those horses up front were retreating into oblivion. He had to circle 4 wide and had headstrong company but he demolished them anyway. He was built much better for this faster surface and the fact that he had a competitive edge at Aqueduct against Paladin was pure evidence of a potential beast once he hit this type of track - which, of course, aligns much better with a Churchill bias in early May. Now we're getting somewhere!! Confidence is sky high with these two winners today. Both were listed at 4th and 5th for January's Top Ten and they both will rise in the ranks for the next upcoming list. Further Ado, Commandment & Thunderously have some serious competition on their hands.

2/14/2026 SAUDI DERBY - King Abdulaziz Racecourse

AL HARAM Race Replay 8f clear/fast Final Time: 1:38.46

DP = 2-2-9-1-0 (14) DI = 1.55   CD = 0.36 ANZ = 1.91

Mare Profile = 3-7-4-13-4   Speed = 10   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.68   Triads = 14-24-21

Iffraaj - Liberamente (Tagula) Abdullah Alsidrani Jockey: Ricardo Ferreira

St. Simon: 18.17%

Saudi Derby Race Placement: Not enough history

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Major configurations that join Further Ado in the stamina category, but this guys numbers are even better. WOW! This is the epitome of a perfect set-up for a rear runner who reserves every last bit of speed when it counts, down the stretch. Finally a winner from overseas who has killer configurations but at the moment, he is not Triple Crown nominated. Always time for supplementing though. Would love to see this guy compete in the UAE Derby in a gate with Tamamo Freesia - both kicking it into overdrive late down the stretch. Both have board hit configurations that align historically in May for Churchill, however, should it rain, they would both need deep thick mud (Type one sloppy bias) like Orb's Derby as opposed to the Type Two slicker mud that we usually see. Then there is always the strong possibility that he would follow in Thunder Snow's footsteps and refuse to fight on it. Clean fast track and there is no worry with either one of them.

• Side Note: Second place finisher, Obliteration, out of Steve Asmussen's barn is capturing some hype over his performance today, but be wary in terms of being a KD player. This was a mile race, and his configurations look very nice for this distance, but are very far removed from any significance at 10f at Churchill with a 20 horse field. Chefs numbers are fine:

  DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.40 But the mare's numbers are awkward, unbalanced and lean greatly to speed: Mare Profile = 12-1-5-4-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.30   Triads = 18-10-16. Rating: ♥ ♥

2/14/2026 RISEN STAR - Fair Grounds

PALADIN Race Results 9f clear/fast Final Time: 1:49.14

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.71

Mare Profile = 5-4-6-6-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-16-18 (2nd gen Tapit)

Gun Runner - Secret Sigh (Tapit) Chad Brown Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon 12.5%

Risen Star Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• The transition from Aqueduct to Fairgrounds went smoothly and without a hitch which was very important in keeping that 5 star rating from bias to bias. Looks as though he has use for that 4.71 ANZ figure and could be one of the best shots for a Tapit line to be ultra-competitive for the wire at Churchill. Now, the big question moving forward would be if Gaffalione retains the mount or does Prat come back aboard. We'll have to wait and see how his next prep plays out (looks like Chad Brown announced the Bluegrass as his next start.) Unlike last year, 2026 looks to be a nicely stacked Derby with an abundance of well configured players. Between sires Gun Runner and Into Mischief filling these top spots, we won't know where to look first! This is a stacked year while even gaining another 5 star player from overseas today.

• Side Note: Second place finisher, Chip Honcho will raise up from 3.5 stars to 4 stars after showing off some necessary speed with his 10f+ background. He did well for himself today. Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Side Note: Fifth place finisher, Carson Street, attempted to display speed but ran completely against the grain of his breeding. Crazy amount of stamina that dominates his speed. He'll drop from 3.5 stars down to 3 stars. Early running style today showed no concrete evidence of ability to balance both sides. That was important for him to do today. Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥

2/15/2026 SUNLAND DERBY - Sunland Park

PAVLOVIAN Race Results 8.5f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:42.22

DP = 1-1-5-1-0 (8) DI = 1.29   CD = 0.25 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-4-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 8   Index = 1.71   Triads = 18-11-13

Pavel - Mandy's Grace (Bellamy Road) Doug O'Neill Jockey: Edwin Maldonado

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon 18.75%

Sunland Derby Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥

• While the Chef's line is very nicely balanced; Roman's index at 1.29 and the prominent non-chef's jumping all the way up to a 3.00 - the mare's line dumps excessive speed and dips that scale way down and off balance. Note the 11 points in the brilliant slot (4-6f), the major spread in the mare's scale and the highly descending triads. Way off for the Kentucky Derby. The only thing we could hope for is that colts built like this continue to rack up points on the trail at 9f and under, make a Derby gate, and then we have a few easy tosses for the 10f race.

2/20/2026 DUBAI ROAD to the KENTUCKY DERBY - Meydan

BROTHERLY LOVE Race Replay 9.5f Clear/fast Final Time: 2:01.41

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.60

Mare Profile = 8-6-3-3-7   Speed = 14   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.25   Triads = 17-12-13

Zoustar - Ruby Love (Scat Daddy) Jamie Osborne Jockey: Saffie Osborne

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Dubai Road to the KD Race Placement (formerly the Al Bastakiya): ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ - keeping it neutral for now.

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ? ? ?

• I am not confident in rating this horse at the moment for several reasons. First, this race was the Al Bastakiya. Recent years have seen very speedy horses enter the winner's Circle - very high chef indexes with much higher ANZ figures (4.00+). It has been awhile since a legit stamina horse won - (Mubtaahij back in 2015). Based on Brotherly Love's 4.60 ANZ figure he had the speed for the race BUT his mare's line for a 9.5f contest SHOULD have defeated him - it's backwards. That mare line had ZERO adverse affect on this horse - he steamrolled from the back like a monster to win this race. He ran this race completely opposite of what his numbers relay. What stands out then is he is a 2.00 Roman's index horse, which is stamina and then his ANZ figure (and packed ANZ profile DP = 13-5-10-0-0 (28) balances his scale on top - basically, he disregarded his mare's entirely in this race. There are many horses in the past who have run completely through their numbers, (American Pharoah comes to mind) and with the way he ran this 9.5f race, he looks like he's running right over those mare's figures. But one race cannot tell that tale fully. It is always nice to see Jamie Osborne in that Winner's Circle, he is a gentleman who is humble and proud of his horses at all times. The fact that Brotherly Love kicked into into overdrive down that very long stretch in a 9.5f race is telling me to hold off on his rating until the UAE Derby performance to see if this horse is running strictly to his top line or if 9.5f is his cap. It truly looked as though he could have held back a bit longer and made that impressive run with the same amount of power traveling further. We'll wait it out.

2/21/2026 JOHN BATTAGLIA - Turfway Park

GREAT WHITE Race Results 8.5f AWS cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:46.83

DP = 2-8-2-0-0 (12) DI = 11.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 10-3-5-2-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.22   Triads = 18-10-15

Volatile - Kelly Bag (Uncle Mo) John Ennis Jockey: Alex Achard

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

John Battaglia Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥

• Hoping he eventually retains a Derby gate (and many more built like him also secure a gate) so we have more to cross off when handicapping the Derby. The entire race was ridiculous in spite of being held on AWS. Glorified Allowance race with pedestrian calls at 23.88 48.84 1:14.65 1:40.01 and final in 1:46.83 which cannot be taken seriously with his 11.00 index, his backwards scale, his speedy 1.22 mare index and his triads sitting on a sliding board. There is zero comparison against a handful of speedy dirt runners who have the proper balance for the 10f Churchill track. No chance here.

2/22/2026 HYACINTH STAKES - Tokyo Racecourse

LUCKY KID Race Replay 1600m 7.94f sunny/fast Final Time: 1:36.7

DP = 0-6-5-1-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.42 ANZ = 3.57

Mare Profile = 8-2-7-5-8   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-14-20

Discreet Cat - Happy Go Lucky (Pyro) Yukihiro Kato Jockey: Mirai Iwata

St. Simon: 6.64%

Hyacinth Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• We should all breathe a sigh of relief that Arcadia Cafe was nowhere near that tote board, we certainly didn't need another Into Mischief son crashing the party. Nice amount of chef stamina moving forward to the UAE Derby but keeping in perspective the differences in this 1600m (8f) to the UAE distance of 1900m (9.5f) my money would be on second place finisher Don Erectus. With just a slight more track today, Don would have passed him easily. Lucky Kid has 10f but slightly imperfect for the Kentucky Derby. Don is perfect.

Notable Contenders exiting this race for the Future:

DON ERECTUS

DP = 2-1-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 1-4-8-10-3   Speed = 5   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.58   Triads = 13-22-21

Danon Legend - Dona Primo (Furioso) Noboru Takagi Jockey: A. Sugawara

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy (2nd is St. Simon at 21.6%)

Hyacinth Race Placement: ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Second place finisher, Don Erectus's ratings stay exactly the same as when he came in a very close second as well in the Cattleya Sho. This horse was flying down that stretch like a freight train and missed the wire by a breath AGAIN. For me, his performance outshined the winner in both races. His breeding also outshines both as well. This colt is running impeccably way under his optimum - look at that mare scale, only 5 points in speed and a whopping 13 in stamina. That is insane. He is prime material for the UAE Derby and built very well for Kentucky. Something had to have happened in his prior allowance race or maybe Post One was bad news but he rebounded like a champ. This horse is crazy good and his late speed rivals our crew - if not surpasses altogether. Don needs more than a mile for a win - oh, so close!

2/25/2026 CONDITION STAKES - Kempton Park

HIDDEN FORCE Race Replay 8f Polytrack Final Time: 1:39.44

DP = 1-5-20-8-0 (34) DI = 0.89   CD = -0.03 ANZ = 1.11

Mare Profile = 1-8-4-13-5   Speed = 9   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.52   Triads = 13-25-22

Frankel - Winter Lightning (Shamardal) Charles Appleby Jockey: William Buick

Conditions Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

• Three colts entered the gate to face the favorite and all three denied. Appleby hits for the win three times in a row now with Hidden Force added to the list under Notable Speech and Opera Ballo. He'll likely continue to follow suit on Turf because that is how Appleby rolls. The horse is built along the lines of Thunder Snow with ability to cast speed on multi-surfaces. Hidden Force should go on to make a very nice name for himself in the future but the likelihood of a Louisville trip is extremely low. If he travels, it would most likely be Dubai.

2/27/2026 PATTON STAKES - Dundalk

BLANC de BLANC Race Replay 8f Polytrack Final Time: 1:37.91

DP = 1-0-15-6-0 (22) DI = 0.63   CD = -0.18 ANZ = 1.00

Mare Profile = 4-12-2-8-4   Speed = 16   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.22   Triads = 18-22-14

Not This Time - Wonderful (Galileo) Robson Aguiar Jockey: Donagh O'Connor

Inbred 10f Capability: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Historical Kentucky Derby Alignment: Turf

• Filly steals the Derby Points at Dundalk and will be pointed to the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas for fillies on turf as opposed to Louisville (not nominated). Kentucky bred daughter of Not This Time with Grandfather Galileo on her Mom's side looks like a very nice combination as she's moves forward.

Continue to 2026 Derby Prep Winners - Part Three