2025 Derby Prep Winners - Part Two

Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.

Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars

Continuation from Derby Prep Winners Part One Article.

2/15/2025 - RISEN STAR STAKES - Fairgrounds

MAGNITUDE  Results Chart    9f Cloudy/Fast Final Time: 1:48.85

DP = 2-7-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64   CD = 0.55 ANZ = 3.36

Mare Profile = 4-9-5-8-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.16   Triads = 18-22-16

Not This Time - Rockadelic (Bernardini) Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ben Curtis

St. Simon: 22.26%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Had to go back to Pool Three analysis for this guy and things pretty much stay the same. I grappled with raising him to 4 stars based on the fact that he ran less than 1 second short of breaking the track record. Decided its best to keep the 3 stars and stick with initial thoughts. Inherited capability to run a 10f distance which makes him possible board hit material but configurations are harsh for a win on the big day. Should not get caught up in the Not This Time factor like we did back in 2022. His kin, Epicenter was in a league all his own with extra special figures. Magnitude is configured more like In Due Time, Aegean Finale, Ain't Life Grand, Simplification, Just One Time, Howling Time, and Chasing Time. Speed agility with extra jets from their sire. Competitive at 10f with extra nice 22% hit from St. Simon could be deciding factor later. With this guy, best to take it "One Day at a Time." Side note - looks like Magnitude is now off the Derby Tail.

2/16/2025 - SUNLAND DERBY - Sunland Park

GETAWAY CAR Results Chart 8.5f Fast Final Time: 1:42.64

DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 8-3-1-8-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.69   Triads = 12-12-19

Curlin - Surrender Now (Morning Line) Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Juan Hernandez

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +++

I cannot stress how good this horse really is and how good he has always been. From day one. He is absolutely the perfect model for everything that we talk about here at the DHC. When pinpointing true players for the Kentucky Derby, it is not the speedy short winners who matter, it is the ones with excess stamina who are competitive in their shorter races. To put this into perspective for this short 8.5f contest, the second place runner, Caldera, had 101% advantage in this race based on his inherited speed at this distance and on that Sunland bias, but the stamina-driven Getaway Car stayed right with him. Look at this:

CALDERA

DP = 2-13-3-0-0 (18) DI = 11.00   CD = 0.94 ANZ = 12.33

Mare Profile = 5-7-6-6-3   Speed = 12   Stamina = 9   Index = 1.28   Triads = 18-19-15

Rating for the Derby: ♥ 

Caldera is an overtly speed influenced horse with his 11.00/12.33 index and all speed from his mares. Built like a titan for 8.5f on the Sunland Park bias and looks to be a promising competitor for Dirt Mile on the West Coast in the future. Getaway Car ran neck and neck with that but the big difference is that Getaway Car was running at least 2 furlongs below his optimum, Look at the difference in the mare scale. SEVEN exquisite points to the good on the stamina side. That is insane. Getaway Car is a serious player and his competitiveness and will to win is extraordinary. Signed, sealed and delivered!!! WOW!!! Incredibly built with all the signs of a 10f Champion.

2/22/2025 JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL - Turfway Park

CALIFORNIA BURRITO Results Chart 8.5f Clear/Fast AWS Final Time: 1:45.93

DP = 3-4-9-0-0 (16) DI = 2.56   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 3-6-7-6-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.76   Triads = 16-19-19

Army Mule - Bluegrass Sunset (Hard Spun) Trainer: Thomas Drury Jockey: Irving Moncada

St. Simon: Roberto → Nearco → St. Simon 21.9%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

No surprise that a 2.56 index colt wins the John Battaglia on All Weather Surface but he did outwit several others who were also configured quite well for the race so recognition is due. There is no doubt that the horse can sustain a 10f track which is why he gets the 3 stars. He also performed fairly well at Churchill Downs on dirt, coming only 1 length behind Magnitude at 8.5f in an OC and posting a win at only 7f against a field of 13 in his maiden. Evidence of competitive speed on the proper dirt surface, however, both of those efforts produced fairly slow times in spite of it. Because of his obvious ability to run the 10f, he must be monitored going forward for evidence of raw speed on the proper surface - a faster dirt surface that resembles Churchill Downs. Will revisit to see how he moves on a faster track at a longer distance against the titans who are built correctly for May.

2/23/2025 HYACINTH STAKES - Tokyo Racecourse

LUXOR CAFE Race Replay 1600m/8f Clear/fast dirt Final Time: 1:37.60

DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 1.17 ANZ = 8.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.79   Triads = 13-13-16

American Pharoah - Mary's Follies (More Than Ready) Trainer: Nuriyuki Hori Jockey: Rachel King

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Just like California Burrito was built for the 8.5f All Weather Surface contest, Luxor Cafe was built for the 8f soft dirt in Tokyo. With a 5.00/8.00 index and extremely sub-par mare triads, he had the raw inbred speed to inhale those 8f quite easily. Face value, these configurations lack on the mares end. However, there is always a rub to contend with. His sire, American Pharoah, also had very similar configurations and we all saw what he was eventually capable of - Was that a result of something magical hidden within his chart or something magical hiding within his trainer's barn? We shall never know that answer so caution needs to be respected. At the moment, we'll stick with the face value and give him the proper rating for now. As with California Burrito, monitor moving forward. More work needs to be done with his chart and past performances at this juncture.

Side Note: Second Place Finisher, PRECIOUS GENE, the filly sired by Nadal/Precious Leap (Henny Hughes) has a very nice future ahead of her.

2/23/2025 THE REBEL STAKES - Oaklawn Park

COAL BATTLE Race Results 8.5f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:43.01

DP = 1-7-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.80

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-5-5   Speed = 15   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.42   Triads = 19-16-14

Coal Front - Wolfblade (Midshipman) Trainer: Lonnie Briley Jockey: Juan Vargas

St. Simon: 28.13%

Rating for the Derby: ♥

This is the 3rd Derby Prep win and the luckiest one for us because it is a 50 point race. Coal Battle now has 70 points to his name with a guaranteed gate for him and an easy toss for us. Do you remember the time before the change in the points system and there were many speedsters who were able to attain a gate? Those were the good old days! This is a gift to us! With these 3 prep wins, Coal Battle now becomes one of the favored few. He has won an 8f prep and two 8.5f preps with ZERO chance of ever getting 10f on a 20 horse field. He is a 9f horse at best. Note the 7 in the Intermediate slot - The heavy lean to speed in the mares scale and the descending triads. Bob Baffert handed this trophy over to Briley's Barn (and us!) on a silver platter with his lead speedster rolling off 22.47 45.72 1:10.94. Thank you, Bob! Appreciate that so much! Notice how Sandman was rolling from way off the pace and ran out of track? He's the 10f player - not Coal Battle. This was such a great notch up in points for all. This horse has no chance in the Kentucky Derby but he has that gate! Keep'em coming!

2/26/2025 THE CONDITION STAKES - Kempton

OPERA BALLO Race Replay 8f standard/slow Polytrack Final Time: 1:38.16

DP = 1-7-5-9-0 (22) DI = 0.91   CD = 0.00 ANZ = 1.09

Mare Profile = 6-6-2-9-9   Speed = 12   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.69   Triads = 14-17-20

Ghaiyyath - Dubai Opera (Invincible Spirit) Trainer: Charles Appleby Jockey: William Buick

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Yes! Yes! Yes! Tall gorgeous Godolphin colt looks the picture of perfection both with his looks and his configurations. Granted, it was a race with only 6 contenders. Granted, it was only 8f. Granted, it was on the Polytrack surface. But this guy slammed this win, running lights out past those competitors. He comes aboard as the only hotshot prospect in the "HUGE" stamina category and no doubt would be sitting in the perfect spot with the highest inbred stamina of the field, if Appleby decides to give it a shot. Just look at that chef profile! NINE POINTS IN THE PROFESSIONAL SLOT and running with pure speed. If a horse built like this runs with killer speed in that manner and doesn't make your heart race, then I don't know what will! His configurations rival (and surpass) the likes of Instilled Regard, Code of Honor and Epicenter, among others. Major potential for this guy to make a name for himself. He has killer Derby board hit configurations. It's all about his displayed speed backed with his precious unlimited stamina away from a turf surface. No worries that his top line breeding does not go directly to St Simon either, he has more than enough stamina to counter. Make sure to watch his replay for that leggy killer stretch run. He's a beauty. Love him!

3/1/2025 FOUNTAIN of YOUTH - Gulfstream Park

SOVEREIGNTY Results 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.12

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-22-16

Into Mischief - Crowned (Bernardini) Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: Junior Alvarado

St. Simon: 16.41%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

DHC gave this horse 5 stars after his 2nd place performance in his maiden before the Street Sense Stakes and also for Pool One. He was dropped down to 4 stars for Pool Three based on the mare line. We're gonna bring him back up. (Plus, I'm too superstitious not to!) What looks promising here is that Sovereignty is the only Into Mischief son on the trail right now that reserves his energy, running way off the pace. His kin all favor the speed, running up front. This could actually end up being a major advantage at Churchill based on the number of Into Mischief sons on the trail right now. Based on the last couple of Derby's, the rear has been favored and Sovereignty still retains all of that inbred speed, it will just come at the end, not the beginning. The other item that makes him different and possibly highly advantageous against his other kin is the fact that his top line-breeding goes directly to St. Simon at 16%. Most of the others line breed through Mr. Prospector (speed) straight to Teddy. That's another small shot of some very important additional stamina for him. Although the alignment of the triads says "Board Hit" - it is the way he outwardly favors his stamina side that could put him in contention for the win depending on those first two opening calls. Preakness is also in the cards. I'm bringing him back based on reasoning, common sense, and with his style of running against his relatives.

3/1/2025 GOTHAM STAKES - Aqueduct

FLOOD ZONE Results 8f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:39.62

DP = 3-6-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 11-3-0-7-10   Speed = 14   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.93   Triads = 14-10-17 (2nd gen Tapit)

Frosted - Curls for Girls (Curlin) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez

St. Simon: Deputy Minister → Bunty Lawless

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

Got to take a stand here. No surprise that a Tapit offspring prevails at Aqueduct. While the 10f is easily attainable and should garner at least 3 stars for that, there are several reasons why I can't go that high for the Derby. Based on his entire layout, these are 101% "over the top" 12f Belmont configurations. Unfortunately for Brad Cox, no 12f this year. He's a 2nd generation 3.00 Tapit Boy with a VERY RARE set of mare numbers that also lean to stamina as well. Based on the call figures and final time of the Gotham, there is no doubt that Flood Zone is happily following that dominant stamina side. With the Derby, there must be extravagant inbred speed to counteract a colt's stamina and with this set-up, it's just not there. Not in his running times and not in his chart. There would need to be a complete and total breakdown of speed from Mid-pack all the way up to the lead tier for this horse to take advantage. He has 10f but he doesn't have the speed to go with it.

3/1/2025 SAN FELIPE - Santa Anita

JOURNALISM Race Results 8.5f Cloudy Fast Final Time: 1:43.04

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18

Curlin - Mopotism (Uncle Mo) Trainer: Michael McCarthy Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

St. Simon: Deputy Minister  → Bunty Lawless → Commando

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ (upgrade)

There are 3 reasons why Journalism goes from 2 stars to 3 stars for this performance. Face value, these are board hit numbers, not winning numbers. When calculated and combined, he gets 10.1f which is sufficient to hit that board, plus his displayed speed in this race was substantial. The other reason is because Mike McCarthy is a master with stamina driven horses and some of that training no doubt is being implemented with this speed driven horse. He was not the advantaged horse on that field in the San Felipe - Barnes was. (Rodriguez was not advantaged either.) The fact that Journalism displayed STAMINA on that field was a great sign for him, even though his mares triads fall quite short for a win. He could be well-matched board hit material because of that performance. If he wins the Santa Anita Derby, all accolades should fall onto the training skills of Mike McCarthy and this horse will rise to 4 stars as a player.

3/7/2025 PATTON STAKES - Dundalk

TITANIUM EMPEROR Race Replay 8f Standard Final Time: 1:38.23

DP = 0-5-8-7-0 (20) DI = 0.82   CD = -0.10 ANZ = 1.17

Mare Profile = 3-7-2-12-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 19   Index = 0.54   Triads = 12-21-21

Night of Thunder - My Titania (Sea the Stars) Trainer: Adrian Murray Jockey: David Egan

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

He receives 3 stars for obvious ability to run the 10f, however, even with his gorgeous configurations, the excitement of his run was highly lacking. Breaks his maiden here but not in the same league as Opera Ballo. Most likely would not ship to Kentucky regardless of gaining points.

3/8/2025 TAMPA BAY DERBY - Tampa Bay Downs

OWEN ALMIGHTY Race Results 8.5f cloudy fast Final Time: 1:42.30

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 4.33

Mare Profile = 6-4-8-5-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-17-18

Speightstown - Tempers Rising (Bayern) Trainer: Brian Lynch Jockey: Irad Ortiz

St. Simon: 18.75%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

There is alot to unpack here. This race may have not been visually pleasing but the effort here was much better than it appears. The reality is quite surprising. Here's 4 recent 8.5f gate to wire efforts from 4 different types of horses representing 4 different types of scales:

Owen Almighty in the TB Derby: 23.84 48.16 1:12.54 1:36.46 1:42.30 (even balanced scale)

Journalism in the San Felipe: 23.71 47.31 1:11.10 1:36.13 1:42.24 (speed side of scale)

John Hancock in the Sam F Davis: 22.75 46.23 1:10.49 1:35.65 1:42.27 (speed & stamina on the scale)

Getaway Car in the Sunland Derby: 23.31 46.93 1:10.99 1:36.23 1:42.64 (stamina side of scale)

Before getting into Owen, and further exposing the reason why John Hancock and Getaway Car rate at 5 stars is laid out there in black and white. The stamina driven colts of the 4 actually displayed MORE SPEED ON THE LEAD than the other two with a final in basically the same time. Both are built with much more stamina, positioned in the same spot, beating the other 2 to the punch and still retaining the same final. Their exhibited speed is killer based on their breeding. They beat the speedier colts across the board and still sustained to the wire. It doesn't get much better than that when considering a 10f contest.

Now, with Owen, he was not quite as flashy as the lead in this race BUT he excelled late - exhibiting his even balance. This horse was bred with 10f and the fact that he would probably need to maintain a stalking position behind flashier speed in the Derby, we know that he will have some speed in reserve for a late burst or at least maintaining an even drive. His numbers aren't half bad and his performance points to one who could sustain a more even run with a half decent position. He reminds me very much of Verrazano from back in 2013. Owen has the mojo but he will need a trip behind the leaders because he is not as fast early but he has inbred balanced energy. The final results speak for themselves. His final time in this race is compatible and he has the 10f distance. That cannot be ignored. You can never ignore a colt based on a performance that wasn't quite as exciting visually. Everything needs to be viewed in context. He did well here.

Two others in the race need to be discussed. The first is Patch Adams. Out of all of the Into Mischief sons on the trail, Patch has the # 1 best set of mare numbers and truly stood out with his incredible maiden performance. He has not displayed that type of speed since, even though he was given opportune early call figures to run after. Maybe he didn't have the best ride, but his breeding should have given him at least a hike late in the race. It wasn't there. The one who truly had the worst and most horrible trip in this race was Hill Road. Gafflione had him measuring that track for no reason at all. Had him trapped, then took him to the back and then tried again. It was a mess. It was terrible, but the horse at least took advantage of his stamina and made a progression from dead last up to 3rd. Maybe it was a messy race, but alot of very good insight could be extracted from these three performances. Owen and Hill Road did well based on what they initially entered the gate with. The goal every year is to hit the superfecta which means you can't marry an early killer player if he doesn't perform to those standards subsequently, and you cannot dismiss any 10f player based on visuals alone, the answers are in the figures.

3/15/2025 VIRGINIA DERBY - Colonial Downs

AMERICAN PROMISE Race Results 9f clear/fast Final Time: 1:46.41 (Track Record)

DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.50

Mare Profile = 10-2-6-5-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-13-19 (2nd gen Tapit)

Justify - Tapella (Tapit) Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Jockey: Nik Juarez

St. Simon - Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ?

You will all need to bear with me on this particular horse. As a matter of fact, I posted a full article on this race and its participants today because there is too much that needs discussing. American Promise received 4 stars way back in Pool 3. This was mainly due to his configurations and the combination of Justify with Tapit in his chart. He was also one of the easiest to toss from his last attempt in the Risen Star because he never showed any allegiance to that chart up until that point. Out of the blue, he walks into his 9th race and he breaks the track record in a Derby Prep that has zero history to it. In addition, all of the board hitters including Render Judgment, Omaha Omaha, and of course Getaway Car all received 4+ stars early on. Three of them choose this race to finally shine, while the beast Getaway Car puts in his worst effort to date. There is something that just isn't sitting right, not just with the winner but with all the players, both animal and human and the entire race itself. On the one hand, American Promise finally showed us what he is made of - on the other hand - this race could easily be considered a complete toss. For now, we'll settle on 3 stars based on his ability to run the 10f, keeping him neutral for the time being. There is way too much to untangle with this race. Please refer to the new article for full race results analysis.

3/22/2025 JEFF RUBY STEAKS - Turfway

FINAL GAMBIT Race Results 9f cloudy Fast AWS Final Time: 1:50.10

DP = 2-7-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.46 ANZ = 2.73

Mare Profile = 6-9-2-9-4   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 17-20-15 (2nd gen Tapit)

Not This Time - Pachinko (Tapit) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Luan Machado

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

I'm thinking that Brad Cox is attempting the Animal Kingdom route to the Kentucky Derby. All turf and AWS races, using the Jeff Ruby (Spiral Stakes) as a springboard onto the leaderboard and then letting him loose on the dirt surface at Churchill. It seems fair enough, but the combo of Giant's Causeway on top of Tapit is severe advantage in the Jeff Ruby, not so much at Churchill Downs. Especially with a 2.20 index. He gets 3 stars for the ability to run over 10f, but he will have Sovereignty, Hill Road and Sandman (and Tiztastic) to compete with coming from the rear and his chart is not screaming (speed) advantage there. As with Animal Kingdom, his workouts on the Churchill Downs dirt will end up being the most important of the bunch to follow.

Side Note: It is unfortunate that Lukas chose AWS for Innovator, that was a huge hit and miss with placement. Not so sure what the strategy was there, Innovator's chart and AWS do not mix at all. It's a shame.

3/22/2025 LOUISIANA DERBY - Fairgrounds

TIZTASTIC Race Results 9.5f clear Fast Final Time: 1:56.20

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 10-5-3-6-5   Speed = 15   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.47   Triads = 18-14-14 (Tapit 2X)

Tiz the Law - Keesha (Tapit) Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Joel Rosario

St. Simon: Tapit → Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

This race put some uncertainty to bed. Both sons of Constitution, John Hancock and Tiztastic, have been showing different allegiance to Tapit. John Hancock running up front like a sprinter finally putting to rest his disinterest in capturing anything that has to do with Tapit in his chart. He has no shot in Kentucky, he runs exactly to his configurations as if Tapit doesn't exist. That became a huge worry after his win in the Sam F Davis - complete nose dive in his energy distribution, and it followed through to this race. He is 5 stars no longer. Now we have Tiztastic with a double shot of Tapit, running from the rear, who does not exhibit too much speed, and has displayed severe stamina with an even pace along the way. The horse has 10f with his eyes closed, so we can change his "??? to ♥ ♥ ♥" however, this still gives no answer as to how that double shot of Tapit will react in the Kentucky Derby. That part is unprecedented. His 4.00/6.00 indexes coupled with the 1.47 speedy index of his mares is very nice but cannot be quantified with the excessive Tapit stamina that he outwardly projects. On one hand, this should give him some sort of advantage to simply fly along at the 10f with no interruption. On the other hand, a horse needs speed to compete, be it early or late, in the Derby. It is odd to say that at this point, he takes over John Hancock without a shadow of a doubt, but does he take over all of the classic speed that remains who will be running from the rear as well in May? At this point, I cannot tell if this guy needs a certain set-up to compete or if he is actually the coolest horse of the bunch. He is certainly built very differently from all the players so far. We'll stay neutral for now and let the chips fall as they may.

3/29/2025 FUKURYU - Nakayama

LUXOR CAFE Race Replay 1800m/approx 9f Clear/fast dirt Final Time: 1:52.10

DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 1.17 ANZ = 8.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.79   Triads = 13-13-16

American Pharoah - Mary's Follies (More Than Ready) Trainer: Nuriyuki Hori Jockey: Joao Moreira

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

This horse has to raise up from the Hyacinth up to 4 stars after this performance. Monitoring this guy from then definitely deserves upgrading now. This race was really spectacular. Gated in Post 11, this guy made a jump out from the pack and stormed that stretch with complete professionalism and total disregard to any of his competitors. He ran on the far outside for most of the 9f trip and did not skip a beat late. He is now sitting with 70 points on the leaderboard and most likely will make the trip to Kentucky. He is sporting incredible inbred speed and the mares balance and index both do support favoritism for the Derby. What is highly lacking are his triads, which keep him just below a perfect 5 star rating. The problem we face is that his sire, American Pharoah, also held sub-par Derby Triads but was able to sustain not only at 10f up front stalking the pace, but at 12f gate to wire. As stated in Luxor Cafe's Hyacinth analysis, this may easily be the affect of something hidden well within his chart that is not showing up in the numbers. Everything is sufficient except those triads which will leave us with a huge dilemma in handicapping this horse. I want to overlook the triads very badly, but I'm trying to stay on point with them this year. It's very hard to do that after his stunning win here. My brain is telling me that nothing should be off the table with a son of Pharoah and he is apparently running through his numbers just like his sire. I want to give him 5 stars but in staying true to the configurations, we'll leave it here for now - but there is definitely something magical with this horse that should stay on everyone's radar come May. In my eyes, it has to be the best run late prep seen to date and in trying to stay partial from favoritism with these types of overseas runners (looking a bit like Le Vent Se Leve down that stretch!) we should keep him as a player regardless of the triads. He's really turning out to be one hell of a horse. A very intriguing horse.

3/29/2025 ARKANSAS DERBY - Oaklawn

SANDMAN Race Results 9f Clear fast Final Time: 1:50.09

DP = 6-15-13-2-0 (36) DI = 3.24   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 3.24

Mare Profile = 8-5-1-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-13-16 (2nd gen Tapit)

Tapit - Distorted Music (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Ortiz

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Baffert strikes again! This time, instead of cursing, I simply laughed my ass off! How many Derby prep wins is it now that he has handed over to his competitors with his stupid playbook?! Just like with Getaway Car in the Virginia Derby, he pushed Cornucopian to the exact same insane 45.20 at that 2nd call and demolished him too. Baffert has now helped American Promise, Coal Battle, Journalism and Sandman along the way and put them right into a Derby gate! It's such a joy to watch! I had thought that with Baffert re-entering the Derby playing field, it may have brought back a more realistic pace to the Derby, (his usual get the lead, slow down the pace) but that thought is being flipped on its side with every passing weekend. He is so hungry for points that he is destroying every horse in his barn along the way. That pace aided Sandman a great deal and this refers back to the article pertaining to handicapping the Derby with two pace structures and two tickets. You just never know how a race will unfold and how reckless these trainers can be. The Arkansas Derby was run with an early suicidal pace, which played right into Sandman's advantage and strength. Had the race not been as savage up front, the tote board would have read differently. Take heed to this and remember, the only way to make a profit in the Kentucky Derby is to design two tickets for the two pace structures, understand the ripple effects of both sides and bet both tickets. You never know what a crazy trainer and jockey may ultimately do to their horse to win.

Side Note: Coal Battle remains with his One Star rating and still has no shot in Kentucky. Definitely an 8.5 to 9f horse. Was hoping that Speed King could have added more Derby points from this race (he only has 25) so that we'd have another to bypass in the Derby. Unfortunately that did not happen. He had nothing for the 9f, let alone 10f.

3/29/2025 FLORIDA DERBY - Gulfstream

TAPPAN STREET Race Results 9f Cloudy fast Final Time: 1:49.27

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 4-10-5-7-4   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.15   Triads = 19-22-16

Into Mischief - Virginia Key (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Luis Saez

St. Simon: 22.07%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

From Jan 15th Future Pool 3: "Built exactly like Sovereignty in every way. Sits in the same exact boat with the triads but at double the odds. Going forward, these two must be joined at the hip. Exactly what was said about Sovereignty pertains here. Monitor both, keeping them tightly bound. The numbers never lie and can never be disregarded."

So this means, if Sovereignty retains 5 stars, then Tappan Street certainly deserves the same for this performance. He'll jump from 4 stars to 5 stars. There was no shame in Sovereignty's 2nd place, he was closing the gap at the wire and at only 9f this is truly all we needed to see from him. Still surging, still gaining, and still closing well. Both sons of Into Mischief, Tappan Street and his kin Sovereignty are loaded in speed through their chefs and prominent non-chefs, and both retain additional stamina from their immediate sire. Both do lack in the last slot of their triads, a couple of points below perfection, and both excelled even with the more manageable pace as opposed to capitalizing off an insane pace. Nicely done for both and for each of the three prep winners this weekend.

Side note: For a maiden winner, Disruptor, entering the prestigious Florida Derby after only two 7f contests, may have been quite a stretch and should not diminish his potential moving forward. Surely, he will make his name known, but it may need to wait until after the Derby. Madaket Road had no shot in the Kentucky Derby from the beginning, so it is good that he gained a gate, giving us one more to disregard when handicapping the Derby. His lead 2nd call time was only 47.22 and he was burnt by the 8.75f mark. Let's see how Baffert rebounds next week, hopefully he doesn't destroy any more in the process.

4/5/2025 UAE DERBY - Meydan

ADMIRE DAYTONA Race Replay 9.44f clear fast Final Time: 1:59.13

DP = 2-2-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 6-4-3-9-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.86   Triads = 13-16-17

Drefong - Ice Pastel (Shackleford) Trainer: Yukihiro Kato Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

St. Simon: 12.5% Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon

RATING FOR THE DERBY: ♥ ♥ ♥

This horse sits in the stamina category which is not very well represented along this year's Derby Road, so in that sense, his presence is more than welcome. The main focus though is that when adding in his prominent non-chefs, that 1.86 favorable index skyrockets up to a 3.00. This spreads his optimum between 9.9f and 10.4f. Based on his multi-style of running, it would appear that he favors both sides of his scale and this pushes direct acceptance of those non-chefs. He's on the border. In addition, between Drefong and Shackleford, even more push towards that 3.00 ANZ figure. Based on his Chef's favorable category, we'll keep him at neutral until the final field is set. His mares line is fine but the triads do lack - his scale is very similar to Journalism in that regard. The overseas contingent will be coming with guns blazing, with Luxor Cafe, Admire Daytona and quite possibly Heart of Honor, but Luxor stands above.

4/5/2025 SANTA ANITA DERBY - Santa Anita

JOURNALISM  Race Results  9f clear fast Final Time: 1:49.56

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18

Curlin - Mopotism (Uncle Mo) Trainer: Michael McCarthy Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

St. Simon: Deputy Minister  → Bunty Lawless → Commando

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

After his win in the San Felipe, I said I would raise this horse up to 4 stars if he won the Santa Anita Derby. I'm not sure if it is my complete aversion to following suit with any "current hyped favorite" or if I'm going too far with sticking to the regiment, but I simply cannot go to 4 stars at this time and will opt to simply give him an extra + to his 3 stars. This may be contrary to most of your thoughts but there are several reasons why, so forgive me if this is somewhat long-winded.

Unlike Luxor Cafe, I found absolutely nothing hidden within his chart to offset the mare's line. I'm seeing board hit numbers at Churchill and configurations that are better suited for the Preakness/Haskell. Actually, they are even more killer for the Pennsylvania Derby. These are Kentucky Derby Board Hit numbers, they are not winning numbers.

I felt the same way about Forte back in 2023 and Zandon in 2022 when it came to this specific 10f race and their configurations. Even Honor A.P. in 2020 was the same but I let my heart get in the way there... All with the same type of balance and scale, which is screaming Board hit, not win. It is essential to keep the distance of these prep wins within perspective and as to how they project to the 10f as well as the requirements necessary to achieve it.

In addition, I keep seeing Journalism's kin, Cody's Wish, who did attempt one 9f race in his career in the Whitney at Saratoga and had it not been for losing his footing out of the gate in that race, he would not have conceded several lengths and may have possibly hit that 9f mark instead of taking 3rd place. Optimum distance and undefeated record at 9f and under and I'm seeing a deja'vu. But what gives me pause with Journalism is that unlike Cody's Wish, who was actually holding Tapit in his 2nd generation, Cody still held a 9f and under optimum. Fast, determined, undefeated... but capped at 9f.

The 3rd and most influential point for keeping Journalism at 3.5 stars is the Santa Anita Derby race itself. It is not simply the obvious fact that we are discussing the most likely big favorite for a 20 horse gate at 10f on the East Coast who just beat only 4 competitors at 9f on the West Coast. That, in and of itself, is somewhat ridiculous to even consider, but what is even more striking is the simple fact that even with the tiny fields who competed throughout the entire day yesterday, the normal SA track bias was flipped on its head.

There were 5 dirt races held on April 5th at Santa Anita, with distances spanning 6f, 6.5f, 8.5f and 9f. This track caters to lead speed. It is a slick speedway which is one of the main reasons why Bob Baffert capitalizes with his normal gate to wire playbook. Well, regardless of the distance on this day, all five races produced an off the pace winner. This time, it was not about Baffert over-using his horse on the lead - it was the bias. The lead tier disintegrated in every race, regardless of the distance and regardless of the opening call fractions. The front was not the place to be even with the mini fields. It was a strong bias and Journalism capitalized by sitting in 4th in a 5 horse field. This happened ALL DAY. Through no fault on Citizen Bull or Westwood, the bias was the culprit.

All of these combined facts do not enhance a win consideration for the 10f Kentucky Derby - not the mare line - not the field sizes - not the breeding - not the altered track bias - not the similarities to Cody's Wish. One must be ruthless when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, regardless of hype and how things appear on the surface. You may not see it that way and if you don't, I truly hope that I am wrong. It would not be the first time, that's for sure. But if asked to choose between Rodriquez and Journalism at 10f at Churchill Downs, call me crazy but I'd take Baffert in a heartbeat, with or without a moderate pace.

4/5/2025 WOOD MEMORIAL - Aqueduct

RODRIGUEZ Race Results 9f Showery Fast Final Time: 1:48.15

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-5-8-12-2   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 17-25-22

Authentic - Cayala (Cherokee Run) Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Mike Smith

St. Simon: 13.48%

RATING FOR THE DERBY: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

I'm going to go out on a limb a few times with this analysis. First thing is to state that if this horse ran in the 9f Santa Anita Derby as opposed to the 9f Wood Memorial, most likely, he would not be holding 100 points at the moment. Not on that bias with his style. He would be dismissed from the conversation today, just like many are doing UNJUSTLY to Citizen Bull, who was a victim of the unfavorable and doomed spot out on the lead at Santa Anita. Secondly, if you were ever wondering what quintessential Kentucky Derby configurations look like, they are sitting right here. Even the double digit St. Simon factor is on point. The only knock is the 4 total points in his profile, but even with that, his mare line takes complete control in the most perfect way. They couldn't be any more aligned with the Kentucky Derby if you tried. Sire Authentic (Into Mischief) has passed through serious configurations to his offspring and Rodriguez has shown them off proudly. Since the very beginning, even before his maiden, he was given 5 stars for his potential and he performed right on point. The fact that he wired the Aqueduct track while it was wet with a filled 12 horse gate puts the Santa Anita Derby to shame. Just like Getaway Car, this horse comes suited with pure stamina and he displays his speed with a dominance and mindset that screams Major contender. Unfortunately, Getaway Car was compromised in the VA Derby and the uncertainty with how that race affected him must also then have an affect as to how he is perceived now. With Baffert, he still has a seriously well-built animal who performed like a champ away from his backyard. Two recent previous winners of the Kentucky Derby, Authentic and American Pharoah, will be representing two separate beasts from two separate continents in the 151st edition of the Derby with Rodriguez and Luxor Cafe as the elite standouts as the Derby Trail nears its final turn. Rodriguez is a Major Top Contender and is built like a titan for the race at Churchill Downs.

Side Note: It would not be a good idea to dismiss Citizen Bull from superfecta consideration after the loss in the Santa Anita Derby. Visuals are one thing, track bias is another. Remember, Medina Spirit didn't win the SA Derby either. Citizen Bull still has board hit Kentucky Derby configurations regardless of the 9f loss.

4/8/2025 BLUE GRASS STAKES - Keeneland

BURNHAM SQUARE Race Results 9f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:51.33

DP = 4-13-5-0-0 (22) DI = 7.80   CD = 0.95 ANZ = 8.60

Mare Profile = 6-7-3-5-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.10   Triads = 16-15-14

Liam's Map - Linda (Scat Daddy) Trainer: Ian Wilkes Jockey: Edgard Zayas

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

Both top and bottom of his configurations put him on the heavier tail end of the Intermediate category and out of the top 3 finishers in this race, he holds just a tad extra stamina, putting him at an optimum distance between 9.1f and 9.3f. He is built extremely well for the Derby - just not in Kentucky - it would be in Pennsylvania. As far as the Triple Crown, the Preakness is more in his comfortable wheelhouse. Both his chefs and his mares profiles show dominance in inheritance laying in the 7f to 9f Intermediate category. He has a very high speedy 7.80/8.60 index and a high 1.10 mare index coupled with a scale leaning to speed and descending subpar triads. Late runner with a late sprinting set-up. Pa Derby.

4/12/2025 LEXINGTON STAKES - Keeneland

GOSGER Race Results 8.5f clear fast Final Time: 1:44.16

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 9-3-4-7-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-14-18 (2nd gen Tapit)

Nyquist - Gloria S (Tapit) Trainer: Brendan Walsh Jockey: Irad Ortiz

St. Simon: 27.73

Rating for the Derby: N/A

Lucky for us that we do not have to consider a speedy Nyquist boy with Tapit backing. We can't deal with yet another at this point. The Lexington seems to be a prep for the Preakness for this horse, in which case, that race could shape up to be one heck of a stacked field. He ran a very good race here. Nicely bred horse who is packing alot of speed.

And now, the Trail has come to a close and in 3 weeks we will see the 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby. And that's a wrap. Good Luck everyone!