A Jockey's Race? The VA Derby Results

This site dedicates itself to working 9 full months on the Kentucky Derby, year in and year out. It begins with the two year olds as early as August and September, studying debut and maiden races, working on their charts, and figuring out the best spots for their success.

Every detail, from both their wins and their losses, needs to be approached using common sense for future handicapping. To accept a win at face value does nothing for the handicapping process moving forward. Merit is one thing, but cause and affect gives us the broader picture.

Enter the Inaugural Prep of the Virginia Derby.

I want to preface this article by stating that I intend no contradiction from my initial analysis with any of the horses involved. It is not my intention to confuse, sway, or otherwise disregard any previous posts on the top 4 who hit the board in this race. I can only pass on my observations, it is up to you to ultimately make the call.

I also want to reiterate that all four of the colts who hit the board in the Virginia Derby were rated 4 and 5 stars months ago, so the obvious prior potential was there, therefore, I struggle a bit with what my brain is computing with these race results. I can only convey the thought process and leave it to you to decide.

My initial reaction as soon as witnessing Getaway Car lug in 8.5 lengths behind American Promise at that wire was a tirade of expletives shouted at my TV screen as if Bob Baffert could have actually heard me. After about one hour of returning to my complete and utter disgust that I had for years with Baffert, I calmed down and took a more logical approach.

Hence the reason for the delayed update on American Promises's analysis. It would have been a cursing tirade had not my logical mind prevailed.

I can not be faulted for my distaste with Bob Baffert's normal pathetic manuscript of running every single solitary horse in his charge over the years, regardless of their breeding, in the exact same "gate to wire" fashion, beating the shit out of these innocent horses who are not built to run like that.

Trust me when I say that Getaway Car is not built to be a lead speedster. Not even close. Indirectly, this led to his demise in the race, but there is much more to it than that. Race results reveal a bigger picture. Let's dive in to this race and you make the call.

THE FIRST 8 RACES at COLONIAL DOWNS on 3/15/2025

It is one thing to state that the race track bias was VERY FAST - it is another to understand the absurdity of everything that surrounded it. Acceptance of it without understanding everything that transpired that day could lead to disaster in the future.

All 8 of the dirt races prior to the running of the 9th race, the Virginia Derby, unfolded in such a manner that causes my intuition to rise up on overdrive.

The Winning Style of Each Race:

Race 1: 8f 1st at the 2nd Call

Race 2: 6f 2nd at the 2nd call - (a head behind)

Race 3: 6f 1st at the 2nd call

Race 4: 6f 1st at the 2nd Call

Race 5: 8f 1st at the 2nd call

Race 6: 6f 1st at the 2nd call

Race 7: 8f 2nd at the 2nd call

Race 8: 8.5f 2nd at the 2nd Call

The Jockeys in Charge of the Two Colts up front at the 2nd Call:

(Ultimately in charge of the insane 2nd call fractions)

Race 1: Lead: Flavien Prat

(Irad Ortiz did not have a mount in this race)

Race 2: Lead: Irad Ortiz

2nd: Flavien Prat

Mychel Sanchez (a head behind 2nd at the 2nd call)

Race 3: Lead: Irad Ortiz

2nd: Jean Biceno

Race 4: Lead: Irad Ortiz

2nd: Flavien Prat

Race 5: Lead: Flavien Prat

2nd: Irad Ortiz

Race 6: Lead: Flavien Prat

2nd: Irad Ortiz

Race 7 Lead: Irad Ortiz

2nd: Jean Biceno

Race 8: Lead: Nik Juarez

2nd: Irad Ortiz

The INSANE Second Call Fractional Times & Winning Jockey:

Race 1: 46.37 Flavien Pratt

Race 2: 45.37 Mychel Sanchez

Race 3: 44.72 Irad Ortiz

Race 4: 45.34 Flavien Prat

Race 5: 45.34 Flavien Prat

Race 6: 44.42 Flavien Prat

Race 7: 45.47 Irad Ortiz

Race 8: 46.58 Irad Ortiz

Based on the match races between Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat up front all day, exchanging wins along the way, regardless of the running styles of their mounts from PREVIOUS RACES, they were going to run Race 9 with the exact same mindset and reckless ambition. Especially, Irad.

There were 2 races prior to the VA Derby where Flavien Prat decided to stay away from Irad Ortiz up front, that was the 3rd and the 7th race. His strategy failed in those 2 races but he decided that at 9f, he would let Irad go berserk again up front, running off those crazy 2nd call figures, and he would sit way off the pace waiting for Getaway Car to give in.

Well, both Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat made a complete mess of this race with the two favorites and threw it so far off kilter that it is hard to take the race seriously.

First, Flavien's strategy with Rapture:

Rapture went off as the second favorite at odds of 2 to 1. Undefeated in 2 starts (one by dq) running UP WITH THE PACE in both. Prat decided to take this horse to the back, away from his preferred running style, and away from the crazy fast bias on this track, expecting to pounce in the 9f race with Irad's suicidal pace.

Rapture runs up front because that is how he is built:

DP = 1-3-3-1-0 (8) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.50 ANZ: 3.80

Mare Profile = 8-4-6-4-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 9   Index = 1.30   Triads = 18-14-15

To take this "normal" early fast runner away from the front for strategy on a completely lead tier front running bias where the rear was highly and outrageously the doom pit, Flavien Prat's (or the trainer's) strategy completely and totally backfired.

Right out of the gate, Rapture didn't have a prayer and he forfeited any advantage that he would have otherwise had.

Irad on Getaway Car:

Irad Ortiz decided to take a stamina driven horse WHO IS NOT BUILT TO BE A LEAD SPEEDSTER to the lead and roll off the same insane 2nd call time in a 9f race - at 45.20.

No matter how you slice and dice it, Getaway Car is not built to run early speeds like that. It goes against the grain of everything his chart says:

DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 8-3-1-8-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.69   Triads = 12-12-19

The top tier was winning all day - 1st position or 2nd position at the 2nd call. ALL DAY. It was the exact bias of the day, every race, regardless of distance, from 6f to 8.5f - all day.

When the lead was beat to hell in a previous race, the horse who sat in the second position at the 2nd call continued to the wire. Mid-pack to the rear was a death trap ALL DAY and this would continue through to the 9th race as well.

American Promise sat in the 2nd position at the the 2nd call and just like clockwork, he prevailed when Irad Ortiz took that lead and ran his horse like a maniac and ultimately into the ground up front.

It happened all day.

This is not to say that American Promise did not step up to the plate, but it does say a few other things that gives me, personally, great pause in accepting that all of the sudden this horse wants to run to his breeding after 8 previous subpar performances.

1. Taking advantage of a crazy one-sided track bias may or may not pan out to be the same bias to again take advantage of at Churchill Downs in May.

2. When the 9 races on the card lead to the EXACT same results in every single race for the day, with the same exact two jockeys, running the exact same crazy lead fractions, the race does not hold the same integrity as other Derby Preps. It diminishes the win.

3. Getaway Car, along with a myriad of well-bred Baffert horses over the years, are run like Carbon Copies of each other, regardless of how they were bred. The long ban on this trainer may have curbed his use with medications, however it did nothing to stop his insistence to run every horse with the hopes of going Gate to Wire in every race he decides to attempt.

4. This insistence has often led to exceptional prospects getting beat to the ground and demolishing any chance they may have had for making a name for themselves. Unfortunately, that outcome would be the best case scenario for these innocent horses. The alternative; over-medication due to injury, early retirements, and in some cases, death, are far worse.

5. American Promise, while he does have a killer chart and more than worthy Derby Configurations, my advice is to proceed with caution in evaluation of a winner of a premiere Derby Prep (with no history to back it) and first time exhibiting allegiance to that chart, and under the conditions presented throughout the race results of the entire day. Some things are severely off with this particular race.

6. Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz were responsible for the race results of the Virginia Derby. Getaway Car and Rapture were innocent participants who were both run against the way they are built. This, in turn, produced a winner in American Promise. Was it merit-based or was it handed to him for being at the right place at the right time?

7. You'll have to make up your own mind when it comes to the players of this race. I know where I stand. Both favorites in this race were handled incorrectly and the Derby monster, Getaway Car, is slowly but surely losing his stature based on the men who are responsible for him. HE IS NOT A LEAD SPEEDSTER WHO SHOULD BE RUNNING 45.20 at the 2nd call. He is not built that way.