Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.

Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars

9/14/2024 - IROQUOIS STAKES - Churchill Downs

JONATHAN'S WAY   Results Chart   8f Fast Dirt Final Time: 1:36.08

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-8-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-17-19

Vekoma - Female Drama (Indian Charlie) Trainer: Philip Bauer

St. Simon: 27.75%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Not a huge fan of the race in terms of Derby players, however, the inheritance as it pertains to the 10f coupled with a forward running style and a smashing Equibase figure of 100, truly appears extremely promising. As those points align with his obvious slant towards stamina is exceptional and cannot be overlooked. As a young new sire, Vekoma is really standing out as a huge stamina influence and when one of his sons displays knock out speed on the lead on a fast bias, you must take notice. He is sitting pretty as a configured stamina-type in the same fashion as Algorithms, Dornoch, and Two Phil's, those who have a steady forward drive with stamina to burn. The 28% linebreeding to St. Simon is also a huge bonus for this type of runner as well. Obvious questions on the barn that he is sitting in, but the horse has some serious potential if he continues on this speedy path with those configurations.

9/28/2024 - BERESFORD STAKES - Curragh

HOTAZHELL Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:38.16

DP = 2-5-6-9-0 (22) DI = 0.83   CD = 0.00 ANZ = 1.77   CD = 0.33

Mare Profile = 4-11-1-11-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.83   Triads = 16-23-18

Two Darn Hot (GB) - Azenar (GB) (Danehill Dancer) Trainer: Mrs. J Harrington

St. Simon: 30.47%

Rating for the Derby: Turf

9/28/2024 - JUDDMONTE ROYAL LODGE - New Market

WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:38.38

DP = 2-2-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 1.33   CD = 0.29

Mare Profile = 3-6-4-9-9   Speed = 9   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.52   Triads = 13-19-22

Kameko - Eva Maria (GB) (Sea the Stars - IRE) Trainer: Owen James

St. Simon = 27.74

Rating for the Derby: Turf

Even though both of these two overseas early Derby Prep winners in Europe have stunning configurations as usual, neither race produced anything of substance for further consideration when it comes to either Derby race this year.

10/5/2024 - AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES - Santa Anita

CITIZEN BULL Results Chart 8.5f fast dirt Final Time: 1:44.30

DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-26-18

Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Bob Baffert

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

There is always an Into Mischief son who rises to the occasion as a top contender for the Derby, however, there are a few things that are saying this isn't the one. Great numbers for the BC Juvenile on the DelMar surface, however, a bit too hefty on the speed side of the scale to hold his endurance for the full 10f at a heightened pace. Killer set-up for the Derby Road but the CD's are very high. As it pertains to Baffert, it used to be rare that his charges ran anywhere close to their numbers, which led to my refusal to even analyze them. But after what transpired with the long ban, maybe we can get back to order. I do believe in my heart that Baffert will be a huge player in this year's Derby, he is hungry for redemption. This horse will be extremely competitive against East Avenue in the Juvenile because of their configurations. In addition, The numbers and the way he runs is screaming Preakness, not Derby. Baffert's second place horse in this race appears more suitable for the 10f and is also performing well. Getaway Car needs to break through those speed demons on those slick West Coast biases at the shorter distances of the trail and notch some high points along the way. He is the 10f player.

2nd Place: GETAWAY CAR

DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 4.00 CD = .85

Mare Profile = 8-3-1-8-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.69   Triads = 12-12-19

Curlin - Surrender Now (Morning Line) Trainer: Bob Baffert

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

After Authentic Spirit was vanned off the field in August, Getaway Car jumped up the ladder as one coming from Baffert's barn who is configured properly for the 10f distance of the Derby. Look at the difference in the mare scales in terms of stamina between this guy and Citizen Bull. There is no comparison there and Getaway Car still retains 4x the amount of speed over stamina from his chefs to balance the scale properly for the Derby. This guy is not a speedster and he will not be as fancy on that track visually in these 9f and under races. But he was still competitive here and showed allegiance to the chef side while still blessed with major endurance. Citizen Bull will retain the hype all the way through including the well-suited BC Juvenile, but it is Getaway Car that is properly configured for the 10f Kentucky Derby, that is, if he can somehow manage to secure the necessary points in these upcoming prep races that are below his optimum distances. Eventually, he will.

10/5/2024 - BREEDERS FUTURITY - Keeneland

EAST AVENUE Results Chart 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.17

DP = 5-9-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.00 CD = .71

Mare Profile = 13-3-2-5-6   Speed = 16   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.63   Triads = 18-10-13

Medagia d'Oro - Dance Music (Ghostzapper) Trainer: Brendan Walsh

St. Simon: 14.45%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

As mentioned here at the DHC after his maiden, this is a very good horse and definitely deserves to be put in your virtual stable for the Derby Trail, however, his mare's entire line is completely off for the 10f Derby. He is a Jackson Bend/Shackleford type who is perfect for the BC Juvenile and all the way through to next year's Dirt Mile. His chefs impart the stamina, his mares are completely dominant in the Brilliant category and his mare scale tips too far over on the speed side, along with descending triads. Love this guy and he should easily grab tons of points on the trail, but he is not suited on the endurance side for the 10f Derby. Preakness could be a possibility based on the St. Simon factor and his courageous determination. A stand-out with severe potential, but the Kentucky Derby is not his race unless he completely out-rides his inheritance. That's a very rare occurrence and quite a tall order. BC Juvenile, yes. BC Dirt Mile next year, yes. 10f Derby, unfortunately it's not there.

10/5/2024 - CHAMPAGNE STAKES - Aqueduct

CHANCER McPATRICK Results Chart 8f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:36.51

DP = 1-2-4-1-0 (8) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.38 ANZ = 2.20 CD: .44

Mare Profile = 7-4-4-6-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-14-16

McKinzie - Bernadreamy (Bernardini) Trainer: Chad Brown

St. Simon: 18.76%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

Chancer McPatrick has the 10f distance by a nose and he has performed very well in his early races, there is no doubt about that. The problem he has for the Kentucky Derby is two-fold. The first is the lack of chefs which pushes his dominant influence on to his elite listed mares. This side of the balance is highly lacking for the standards of the Kentucky Derby. The 1.67 index, the chefs CD and the 19% from St. Simon is just fine for the distance, it is the speed side in his inheritance at that distance where the downfall arises. The triads as well are highly under-par. He is just fine for the trail when the speed demons falter so he will continue to rack up points when facing distance-limited foes or when the track bias defeats them, but historically speaking, his speed inheritance lacks the proper jets to find favor at 10f in the Derby.

10/6/2024 - JEAN-LUC LEGARDERE - Longchamp

CAMILLE PISSARRO Replay 7f Soft Turf Final Time: 1:20.58

DP = 0-7-10-1-0 (18) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.33 ANZ = 2.00 CD = .33

Mare Profile = 9-4-3-8-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.09   Triads = 16-15-17

Whooten Bassett (GB) - Entreat (GB) (Pivotal GB) Trainer: Aiden O'Brien

St. Simon = 42.97%

Rating for the Derby: Turf

Yet another day of Aiden being Aiden! Camille Pissarro will sit the rest of his two year old days off the track and come back for a 3 year old campaign.

10/26/2024 - FUTURITY TROPHY - Doncaster

10/27/2024 - STREET SENSE - Churchill Downs

11/1/2024 - BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE - DelMar