
Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.
Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars
9/14/2024 - IROQUOIS STAKES - Churchill Downs
JONATHAN'S WAY Results Chart 8f Fast Dirt Final Time: 1:36.08
DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 7-3-6-8-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-17-19
Vekoma - Female Drama (Indian Charlie) Trainer: Philip Bauer
St. Simon: 27.75%
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Not a huge fan of the race in terms of Derby players, however, the inheritance as it pertains to the 10f coupled with a forward running style and a smashing Equibase figure of 100, truly appears extremely promising. As those points align with his obvious slant towards stamina is exceptional and cannot be overlooked. As a young new sire, Vekoma is really standing out as a huge stamina influence and when one of his sons displays knock out speed on the lead on a fast bias, you must take notice. He is sitting pretty as a configured stamina-type in the same fashion as Algorithms, Dornoch, and Two Phil's, those who have a steady forward drive with stamina to burn. The 28% linebreeding to St. Simon is also a huge bonus for this type of runner as well. Obvious questions on the barn that he is sitting in, but the horse has some serious potential if he continues on this speedy path with those configurations.
9/28/2024 - BERESFORD STAKES - Curragh
HOTAZHELL Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:38.16
DP = 2-5-6-9-0 (22) DI = 0.83 CD = 0.00 ANZ = 1.77 CD = 0.33
Mare Profile = 4-11-1-11-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.83 Triads = 16-23-18
Two Darn Hot (GB) - Azenar (GB) (Danehill Dancer) Trainer: Mrs. J Harrington
St. Simon: 30.47%
Rating for the Derby: Turf
9/28/2024 - JUDDMONTE ROYAL LODGE - New Market
WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:38.38
DP = 2-2-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 1.33 CD = 0.29
Mare Profile = 3-6-4-9-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.52 Triads = 13-19-22
Kameko - Eva Maria (GB) (Sea the Stars - IRE) Trainer: Owen James
St. Simon = 27.74
Rating for the Derby: Turf
Even though both of these two overseas early Derby Prep winners in Europe have stunning configurations as usual, neither race produced anything of substance for further consideration when it comes to either Derby race this year.
10/5/2024 - AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES - Santa Anita
CITIZEN BULL Results Chart 8.5f fast dirt Final Time: 1:44.30
DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00 CD = 1.00
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 18-26-18
Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Bob Baffert
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥
There is always an Into Mischief son who rises to the occasion as a top contender for the Derby, however, there are a few things that are saying this isn't the one. Great numbers for the BC Juvenile on the DelMar surface, however, a bit too hefty on the speed side of the scale to hold his endurance for the full 10f at a heightened pace. Killer set-up for the Derby Road but the CD's are very high. As it pertains to Baffert, it used to be rare that his charges ran anywhere close to their numbers, which led to my refusal to even analyze them. But after what transpired with the long ban, maybe we can get back to order. I do believe in my heart that Baffert will be a huge player in this year's Derby, he is hungry for redemption. This horse will be extremely competitive against East Avenue in the Juvenile because of their configurations. In addition, The numbers and the way he runs is screaming Preakness, not Derby. Baffert's second place horse in this race appears more suitable for the 10f and is also performing well. Getaway Car needs to break through those speed demons on those slick West Coast biases at the shorter distances of the trail and notch some high points along the way. He is the 10f player.
2nd Place: GETAWAY CAR
DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50 CD = 0.83 ANZ = 4.00 CD = .85
Mare Profile = 8-3-1-8-10 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.69 Triads = 12-12-19
Curlin - Surrender Now (Morning Line) Trainer: Bob Baffert
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
After Authentic Spirit was vanned off the field in August, Getaway Car jumped up the ladder as one coming from Baffert's barn who is configured properly for the 10f distance of the Derby. Look at the difference in the mare scales in terms of stamina between this guy and Citizen Bull. There is no comparison there and Getaway Car still retains 4x the amount of speed over stamina from his chefs to balance the scale properly for the Derby. This guy is not a speedster and he will not be as fancy on that track visually in these 9f and under races. But he was still competitive here and showed allegiance to the chef side while still blessed with major endurance. Citizen Bull will retain the hype all the way through including the well-suited BC Juvenile, but it is Getaway Car that is properly configured for the 10f Kentucky Derby, that is, if he can somehow manage to secure the necessary points in these upcoming prep races that are below his optimum distances. Eventually, he will.
10/5/2024 - BREEDERS FUTURITY - Keeneland
EAST AVENUE Results Chart 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.17
DP = 5-9-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.00 CD = .71
Mare Profile = 13-3-2-5-6 Speed = 16 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.63 Triads = 18-10-13
Medagia d'Oro - Dance Music (Ghostzapper) Trainer: Brendan Walsh
St. Simon: 14.45%
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥
As mentioned here at the DHC after his maiden, this is a very good horse and definitely deserves to be put in your virtual stable for the Derby Trail, however, his mare's entire line is completely off for the 10f Derby. He is a Jackson Bend/Shackleford type who is perfect for the BC Juvenile and all the way through to next year's Dirt Mile. His chefs impart the stamina, his mares are completely dominant in the Brilliant category and his mare scale tips too far over on the speed side, along with descending triads. Love this guy and he should easily grab tons of points on the trail, but he is not suited on the endurance side for the 10f Derby. Preakness could be a possibility based on the St. Simon factor and his courageous determination. A stand-out with severe potential, but the Kentucky Derby is not his race unless he completely out-rides his inheritance. That's a very rare occurrence and quite a tall order. BC Juvenile, yes. BC Dirt Mile next year, yes. 10f Derby, unfortunately it's not there.
10/5/2024 - CHAMPAGNE STAKES - Aqueduct
CHANCER McPATRICK Results Chart 8f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:36.51
DP = 1-2-4-1-0 (8) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.38 ANZ = 2.20 CD: .44
Mare Profile = 7-4-4-6-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-14-16
McKinzie - Bernadreamy (Bernardini) Trainer: Chad Brown
St. Simon: 18.76%
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥
Chancer McPatrick has the 10f distance by a nose and he has performed very well in his early races, there is no doubt about that. The problem he has for the Kentucky Derby is two-fold. The first is the lack of chefs which pushes his dominant influence on to his elite listed mares. This side of the balance is highly lacking for the standards of the Kentucky Derby. The 1.67 index, the chefs CD and the 19% from St. Simon is just fine for the distance, it is the speed side in his inheritance at that distance where the downfall arises. The triads as well are highly under-par. He is just fine for the trail when the speed demons falter so he will continue to rack up points when facing distance-limited foes or when the track bias defeats them, but historically speaking, his speed inheritance lacks the proper jets to find favor at 10f in the Derby.
10/6/2024 - JEAN-LUC LEGARDERE - Longchamp
CAMILLE PISSARRO Replay 7f Soft Turf Final Time: 1:20.58
DP = 0-7-10-1-0 (18) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.33 ANZ = 2.00 CD = .33
Mare Profile = 9-4-3-8-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.09 Triads = 16-15-17
Whooten Bassett (GB) - Entreat (GB) (Pivotal GB) Trainer: Aiden O'Brien
St. Simon = 42.97%
Rating for the Derby: Turf
Yet another day of Aiden being Aiden! This guy will stay on turf and we'll see if he can follow in Auguste's footsteps. He'll be put on hold til his 3 year old campaign.
10/26/2024 - FUTURITY TROPHY - Doncaster
HOTAZHELL Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:38.16
DP = 2-5-6-9-0 (22) DI = 0.83 CD = 0.00 ANZ = 1.77 CD = 0.33
Mare Profile = 4-11-1-11-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.83 Triads = 16-23-18
Two Darn Hot (GB) - Azenar (GB) (Danehill Dancer) Trainer: Mrs. J Harrington
St. Simon: 30.47%
Rating for the Derby: Turf
The second Derby prep win for this turf runner. He came a nose ahead of Delacroix (Aiden O'Brien). He may just be something special but not for the Kentucky Derby.
10/27/2024 - STREET SENSE STAKES - Churchill Downs
SOVEREIGNTY Results 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.86
DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00 CD = .92
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.05 Triads = 18-22-16
Into Mischief - Crowned (Bernardini) Trainer: Bill Mott
St. Simon: 16.41%
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
As pointed out in the 2 year old watch article at the end of September, this Into Mischief son was hot on the heels of Praetor in his last out with style and substance. While the last slot of his triads are a couple of points off, the Bernardini and St. Simon aspect could easily offset. Major speed and "almost" major stamina are the proper configurations to be considered within a top 4 player at 10f at Churchill. If I could give 4.5 stars I would have done that. The fact that he is a back end runner suggests that he is clearly grabbing a hold of that stamina side and not allowing the dominant 7.00 ANZ figure to dictate him. This is why he gets the 5 stars instead of 4.
11/1/2024 - BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE - DelMar
CITIZEN BULL Results Chart 8.5f fast dirt Final Time: 1:44.30
DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00 CD = 1.00
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 18-26-18
Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Bob Baffert
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥
There will be no change to his star rating from his win in the American Pharoah Stakes for the time being. There are two reasons. The first is because the same exact Baffert playbook was employed in this race whereby Baffert's lead is allowed to crawl all the way around that race track. Based on the highly slick bias on Breeders Weekend, this guy was allowed to tackle 8.5f in a paltry 23.44 47.89 1:12.21 1:36.53 1:43.07 against his stablemate. That has to be the slowest call times of the entire weekend. It is the exact same Baffert race over and over again. Slow down the front lead and take it gate to wire. The second and most important reason for staying at 3 stars is because his entire Chef line on an exceptionally fast bias makes those call figures look even worse. I do believe that Baffert will be the main trainer of the 2025 Derby, it's just not with this particular colt. While the mare profile does have some nice points to it, a horse cannot have his wins spoon fed, especially with overtly speedy 9.00/11.00 indexes. As with every other horse, a Prep win does not constitute a player, one must see evidence that he is utilizing both sides of his scale.
11/23/2024 - CATTLEYA SHO - Tokyo Racecourse
NATURAL RISE Race Replay 8f Fast Dirt Final Time: 1:36.4
DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80 ANZ: 5.00
Mare Profile = 7-5-4-8-4 Speed = 12 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.15 Triads = 16-17-16
Kizuna - Lady Madonna (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Keizo Ito
St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon 18.75%
Rating for the Derby: ♥
Recall the 2022 Kentucky Derby contender, Summer is Tomorrow, who stormed to the lead and rolled off 21.78 and 45.36 for the opening which, in turn, handed the roses to Rich Strike who persevered from the rear. If Natural Rise manages to secure a gate for 2025, expect a repeat. This horse has speed on dirt but he has no chance at sustaining it for 10f. The main character and future star emerging from the Cattleya Sho was the second place finisher. This is the guy who we will definitely learn to know over the coming months.
CLAY KING - 2nd place finisher
DP = 1-6-7-2-0 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.38 ANZ: 2:14
Mare Profile = 6-4-6-7-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 16-17-21
Nadal - Queen Amaranthus (King Kamehameha) Trainer: Eija Nakadate Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
St. Simon: 35.75%
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
The acceleration that Clay King displayed down that stretch at the short 8f was spectacular. He would have easily passed the sprinter had he not run out of track. His configurations are perfection for the Derby but the fact that he displayed such raw speed while so stamina dominant is what stands out. This was a full field of 16 contenders and he made such a professional late move with an incredible late burst of raw speed. This is the 10f guy from Japan who has what it takes. Magnificent cast of characters in his chart, distance is in the bag and his speed rivals the early ones. Excellent Future Potential.
11/30/2024 - KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB - Churchill Downs
FIRST RESORT Race Results 8.5f Snowing Fast Final Time: 1:43.01
DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 1.67
Mare Profile = 7-3-4-9-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.91 Triads = 14-16-18
Uncle Mo - Fair Maiden (Street Boss) Trainer: Eoin Harty Jockey: Luis Saez
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ♥
It was snowing at the track for this race which completely bulldozes it in terms of a serious Derby prep. It is a toss. Too many negatives in the configurations along with the first two call figures at 24.56 and 49.30 to take this colt serious as a player in the Derby after this race. He would have to come back, win another prep, and shave off at least 3 seconds for any consideration. Even still, this would not change his mare figures, nor would it add any of the additional speed into his stamina configurations that is necessary on a Spring Churchill track.
12/7/2024 - REMSEN STAKES - Aqueduct
POSTER Race Results 9f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:50.37
DP = 2-7-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.69 ANZ = 4.14
Mare Profile = 8-5-3-5-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-13-16 (2nd gen Tapit)
Munnings - Pin Up (Tapit) Trainer: Eoin Harty Jockey: Flavien Prat
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
This is the second prep win in a row for Godolphin and trainer Eoin Harty. The Remsen Stakes is notorious for stamina taking the trophy. It is a 9f contest with a stamina bias in the middle of winter. The Tapit factor (along with Giant's Causeway) is a huge tell for this race, in the same manner as the Tampa Bay Derby. Every year, we have at least one Tapit offspring and Poster becomes the first to garner Derby points. Tapit horses do not win the Derby, but they do have the goods to be a player for a board hit when their chef indexes come in over 3.20. They need to have the necessary speed to offset that Tapit stamina. With a 3.57 index (ANZ at 4.14) along with a 1.00 Mare Index, he is configured properly to keep an eye on going forward.
12/11/2024 - ZEN-NIPPON NISAI YUSHAN - Kawasaki
MYRIAD LOVE Race Replay 8f Final Time: 1:42.40
DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 ANZ = 1.18
Mare Profile = 6-2-5-7-5 Speed = 8 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.86 Triads = 13-14-17
New Year's Day - Ladybird (Smart Falcon) Trainer: Kiochi Shintani Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura
St. Simon: Halo → Blue Larkspur
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥
Myriad Love becomes the first filly in 8 years to win this race. She beat a legitimate field of 10 male competitors including the offspring of Le Vent Se Leve, Soldier Field (who came in third). For Myriad Love, the configurations do give her the 10f distance but in a roundabout way. The prominent non-chefs aid in that regard and while her mares have a stamina leaning balance, the triads lack severely. Roman's chefs only allow 2 total points, those coming from Mr. Prospector (B,C) in her 4th generation. She retains 3 stars for the 10f ability, however, the configurations themselves are stagnant for the Kentucky Derby. If given a choice for the Derby, it would be Soldier Field (♥ ♥ ♥ ♥) in Kentucky - way over Myriad Love.
12/13/2024 - SPRINGBOARD MILE - Remington Park
COAL BATTLE Race Results 8f Hazy Fast Final Time: 1:39.25
DP = 1-7-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.80
Mare Profile = 8-7-4-5-5 Speed = 15 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.42 Triads = 19-16-14
Coal Front - Wolfblade (Midshipman) Trainer: Lonnie Briley Jockey: Juan Vargas
St. Simon: 28.13%
Rating for the Derby: ♥
Dominant 7 points in the Intermediate Category of the Chefs profile equals NO. Mare Balance is a negative 5 points leaning to speed equals NO. Mare index at a very high 1.42 equals No. Triads disintegrating down the stamina scale equals NO. St. Simon percentage helps but would never offset. This horse has no chance at 10f at Churchill Downs.
12/14/2024 - LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY - Los Alamitos
JOURNALISM Race Results 8.5f Cloudy Fast Final Time: 1:43.04
DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.67
Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.84 Triads = 15-16-18
Curlin - Mopotism (Uncle Mo) Trainer: Michael McCarthy Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
St. Simon: Deputy Minister → Bunty Lawless
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥
It would appear that Baffert's strategy with positioning and timing completely backfired on his 3 contenders, handing this race over to Mike McCarthy. Unfortunately, both Getaway Car and Mellencamp, who are built very well for the 10f in Kentucky are being incorrectly used in the same manner as previous charges, leaving them without the proper foundation for the future. He runs them opposite of how they are built, slowing down the pace for the first 1/4 to benefit the chosen one. This time, Journalism was there to capitalize. It diminishes the win, but still highlights better efficiency at the 8.5 to 9f distance as opposed to 10f. In Journalism's case, this is enhanced. His configurations fall short of advancement at the 10f distance at Churchill. As far as Getaway Car, Gaming and Mellencamp, tactical racing takes it's toll in the long run.
12/21/2014 - GUN RUNNER STAKES - Fairgrounds
BUILT Race Results 8.5f clear fast Final Time: 1:43.53
DP = 3-6-13-0-0 (22) DI = 2.38 CD = 0.55 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 4-3-6-9-6 Speed = 7 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.63 Triads = 13-18-21
Hard Spun - Sea Garden (Curlin) Trainer: Wayne Catalano Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
St. Simon: 17.19%
Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Incredibly thrilled with this win today. He closed at 99-1 in Pool One and those configurations pointed him out as a definite one to grab. Front tier runner with those numbers stood out among the crowd. He is "built" in the same mold as Two Phil's and Dornoch with style of running, balance of scale, and stamina dominance. The "slower" early call times of his lead speed today would normally draw red flags, however, there are a couple of things that allow for a pass in this situation. After watching the replay several times, he did break short but still went on to establish the lead. Then after running a 24.64 in the 1st 1/4, there was nothing keeping Magnitude from passing him and still he did not, which notified Loveberry that there was no need to press the issue. Built never ran on the lead prior, and it almost appeared that the jockey was handing out an opening but nobody came. Built ran as fast as he needed to and still dominated his position. With 49.53 at the half, still, no move to pass and no reason to accelerate down the backstretch. He still kept his momentum because of his strong stamina and kicked home, winning by almost 7 lengths. Slow prep? Yes, but nobody pressured him to go any faster! We know he can move up front early based on his stalking win at Keeneland in 21.93 - 45.26 - 1:10.86 - Final in 1:23.96. He goes as fast as he needs to win. Built is built for the 10f Derby.
Side note on Render Judgment: This horse is also built very well for the 10f Derby and his 3rd place trophy is not an issue. He stumbled badly at the start, leaving him to the rear of the field and he could not recover from that position. He does not run in the rear, he wants a stalking position. Last prep, he had the snow and this prep, he breaks bad. He's got one more shot to make it right, we can't wait around for an "Honor Marie 2.0" - but his numbers do deserve one more shot. But even if he manages to score Prep points and secures a Derby gate, there would be no room for error in that 20 horse gate when they break. That is the red flag with him because he would not recover.
1/4/2025 SMARTY JONES STAKES - Oaklawn Park
COAL BATTLE Race Results 8.5f cloudy fast Final Time: 1:46.43
DP = 1-7-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.80
Mare Profile = 8-7-4-5-5 Speed = 15 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.42 Triads = 19-16-14
Coal Front - Wolfblade (Midshipman) Trainer: Lonnie Briley Jockey: Juan Vargas
St. Simon: 28.13%
Rating for the Derby: ♥
Rating stays exactly the same as it was in the Springboard Mile. No amount of extremely slow Derby Prep Wins in the 8f to 9f distance will change how horrendous his Mare's configurations are for the 10f Kentucky Derby. This horse has no chance on a 10f track at Churchill in May. See analysis above.
1/4/2025 JEROME STAKES - Aqueduct
CYCLONE STATE Race Results 8f cloudy fast Final Time: 1:40.82
DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 8-2-5-11-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-18-21
McKinzie - Chanel's Legacy (Dominus) Trainer: Chad Summers Jockey: Luis Rivera
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Normally, configurations like this would warrant 5 stars, however, there is a reason why we would need to see another race before upgrading to 5 stars. There is no question that this horse has the inheritance to travel the 10f distance and his front running style is excellent. His set-up is Derby-Player worthy but the fact that he is a lead type horse forces one to look at other aspects other than the killer configurations before an automatic 5 stars. His lead fractional times appear quite slow but they cannot be judged at face value coming from the Aqueduct track and compared with a fast spring Churchill bias. Based on his high 4.33 chef index, it would appear that he should take a significant rise in displayed speed on a faster bias. It would be prudent to see the uptick first before assuming that because his ANZ figure of 3.00 drops that inherited speed, adding more stamina. This is not necessarily a bad thing, it only adds to his propensity to conquer the 10f distance. What it does do is cut into that lead speed capability which is extremely important for the Derby. If we see it on the proper bias, he will get those 5 stars.
Side Note on Omaha Omaha (2nd place finisher):
DP = 2-2-1-1-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 4-7-7-10-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.96 Triads = 18-24-20
Audible - England Swings (Kitten's Joy) Trainer: Michael Gorham Jockey: Raul Mena
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
St. Simon: Private Account → Damascus → War Admiral
Second place finisher needs to be recognized based on 3 items. First, his 10f killer configurations for the standards of the Kentucky Derby. They are PERFECT. Second, he is running perfectly in line with those numbers, stamina dominate with extreme late kick speed. Third, Omaha had a bad break, getting slammed by another out of the gate. Even though he is a rear runner and the hit did not impede with his style, he still conceded 5 early lengths. At the top of the stretch, he was still 8 lengths behind the leader Cyclone and rallied incredibly. This was only 8f and had that track offered more distance, he would have passed easily. He is built very well for a distance and still upgraded traveling so short. This horse needs much more span to exhibit what he is truly holding. An excellent prospect as the track expands, hopefully to be visited again before May.
1/18/2025 LECOMTE STAKES - Fairgrounds
DISCO TIME Race Results 8.5f sloppy sealed Final Time: 1:47.07
DP = 1-2-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.29 ANZ = 2.64
Mare Profile = 6-10-3-8-4 Speed = 16 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.32 Triads = 19-21-15
Not This Time - Disco Chick (Jump Start) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Florent Geroux
St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ (upgraded from 3 stars to 4 stars)
There are 2 distinct ways that a sloppy track will affect the bias. It will either favor lead speed if it is simply slick and wet or it will favor the rear if it is deeper, which affects lead tier energy. (I'll post an in depth article on that soon.) At Fairgrounds yesterday, there were 8 dirt races over one mile. 7 of those wins produced a rear-running winner. Considering the dynamics of the track bias, there are 4 items that stand out: First, Disco Time was bumped harshly at the gate and was taken off of his preferred front tier style. This, in turn, became highly in his favor. Not to downplay his flashy late run, but the lead tier did have a huge disadvantage being up front. Second, Built is a stamina driven colt, he did well for himself up on that lead tier and gave us even more evidence of his allegiance to that stamina. Third, Innovator ran a very impressive race to withstand that bias attempting to go gate to wire. The top three were only within 2-1/4 lengths at the wire and out of 3, Innovator had the most disadvantage of the bunch running against the grain. In defeat, he truly did shine. Fourth, Disco Time does deserve an additional star, going from 3 to 4 from the Pool 3 article. The reason is because he was able to reveal the ability to compete away from his normal style of running. He did not throw in the towel as so many colts do. That is the impressive part but that does not constitute a thing when we talk about the 10f distance of the Derby. Yes, he is very similar to Simplification, however, he reminds me more of a horse from back in 2011/2012 named Gemologist. He won 2 early short races at Churchill Downs as well, then tackled Gulfstream Park, and finally a nice prep win in the Wood Memorial to secure a Derby gate. He walked into Churchill undefeated, but came in 16th place. Based on configurations, just like Gemologist, Disco Time is on the cusp for the Derby with enough mojo to hit a superfecta spot, but he is built much better for the Preakness. Of course, superstars outrun their numbers all the time but you cannot claim Champion-type status with a win on an 8.5f sloppy track with a huge rear running bias. The fact that he can compete from different areas of the track is very advantageous for the Derby for obvious reasons, but he does tilt to the speed side of his scale and until we have concrete evidence that he wants to lean more towards Epicenter and away from Simplification (or the myriad of other Not This Time colts) we take it one day at a time. Very appealing lead tier type horse who can reserve his energy if need be but mares stifle for a win at 10f - for now. Would have preferred 3.5 stars but will err in his favor for now.
1/25/2025 SOUTHWEST STAKES - Oaklawn Park
SPEED KING Race Results 8.5f Cloudy Fast Final Time: 1:45.86
DP = 3-10-5-0-0 (18) DI = 6.20 CD = 0.89 ANZ = 6.20
Mare Profile = 12-4-2-2-12 Speed = 16 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.07 Triads = 18-8-16
Volatile - Athenian Beauty (Corinthian) Trainer: Ron Moquett Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥
Speed King is built with a very nice shot of quick early speed as depicted in his 6.20 index figure coupled with pure evidence from his 8f performance in the Springboard Mile (where he came in second) and his performance here in the Southwest. He loses late energy. Both times, traveling 8f and 8.5f, his speed took a dive, even though he was successful. The mares line is doing nothing to aid his endurance against that 6.20. He's tapped at 9f.
Side note: Patch Adams retains his 5 stars, bobbled the start and found himself far away from his preferred style. He also bumped with Sandman closed to the wire while getting the worst of it. He still managed to uplift his position from 7th position to a couple lengths behind the winner at the top of the stretch. He forfeited a few early lengths while getting his footing. Showed will and determination while running away from his race.
Sandman retains his 4 stars. Ran a very nice race from a very bad start, losing at least 5 lengths out of the gate. His late speed outwitted Patch Adams but this is how he runs his races. He did not forfeit his style like Patch, he just spotted lengths to Speed King. Tapit boy with 3.24 index who stays competitive as a Kentucky Derby player underneath.
2/1/2024 WITHERS STAKES - Aqueduct
CAPTAIN COOK Race Results 9f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:51.83
DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 8-4-5-10-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.93 Triads = 17-19-21
Practical Joke - Pow Wow Wow (Indian Charlie) Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jockey: Manny Franco
St. Simon: 8.20%
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥
When it comes to the Derby, there really isn't anything wrong with his configurations, however, there is nothing outstanding about them either. He has the 10f distance without question which is worth at least 3 stars. The fact that he has now posted 2 wins at Aqueduct proves that he is definitely utilizing his hefty stamina, and that particular track bias is perfect for his build. We need to see progression on a much faster surface - one that does not swallow up speedy lead contenders - which is exactly what happened on that bias at 9f in the Withers. Aqueduct is the opposite of Churchill Downs in May, so he will not be holding that type of advantage there. We need to see evidence that he has the jets to move on a much faster bias before May.
2/1/2025 HOLY BULL - Gulfstream
BURNHAM SQUARE Race Results 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.60
DP = 4-13-5-0-0 (22) DI = 7.80 CD = 0.95 ANZ = 8.60
Mare Profile = 6-7-3-5-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.10 Triads = 16-15-14
Liam's Map - Linda (Scat Daddy) Trainer: Ian Wilkes Jockey: Edgard Zayas
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥
Put him in the same boat with East Avenue and Coal Battle - but add just a bit more distance capability. Possible Preakness Player, but configurations are horrific for the Kentucky Derby. He capitalized off of the entire lead tier disintegrating - All 4 colts up in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots early were traveling backwards by the 3/4 pole. Those 4 horses were more responsible for the final payouts than the 4 who ultimately hit the tote board - the top 4 only needed to work at half capacity to collect a superfecta spot. That is fine and normal at 8.5f, but to try to rely on that at 10f+ in a 5 million dollar race, well, good luck with that.
Side note on Guns Loaded (♥ ♥ ♥ ♥): The son of Gun Runner was eased at the top of the stretch. Awaiting news of how he exited the race.
2/1/2025 ROBERT B. LEWIS - Santa Anita
CITIZEN BULL Results Chart 8f fast dirt Final Time: 1:36.71
DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 18-26-18
Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Bob Baffert
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ (upgraded)
The reason why Citizen Bull gets upgraded from 3 stars to 4 stars, (even though he dropped down in distance for this win) is because he finally showed off a bit of speed to back that 9.00/11.00 index. This time, he did it all by himself, but he did lose his late energy this time while moving at a faster pace early on. That is why this particular Into Mischief son stays under the 5 stars for now. The mares line is actually quite nice, but so far, even with posting win after win in these shorter races, he has yet to really flash any allegiance to that 26 points in the center of his triads. Something just feels off with regards to the 10f for now and everything keeps pointing to the Preakness, not the Derby. With such a packed Baffert Barn, can't help but think that the true 10f players are laying low underneath for the time being. The Santa Anita Derby will give us the bigger clues into where Baffert's head is at. The only thing that nags is the fact that Baffert's Medina Spirit also lost energy in every race he ran (9f and under) prior to the Derby and he also had sub-par configurations. Granted, he was disqualified for banned drugs which may (or may not) have played a part in his ability to take it gate to wire that day. It's the "may not" part that leaves superstition! When it comes to Baffert, you just never know.
The big problem with this year's Derby contenders is the fact that there are way too many descendants of Into Mischief and as we know, they are always carrying fairly hefty configurations that line up nicely for the race. This is the biggest dilemma that we will face this year, rain or shine.
Side note on Rodriguez (♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥) - This guy is not a speed demon like his mate Citizen Bull - he is stamina dominant - even with the familiar Into Mischief line on the top his chart. His balance leans differently and he still showed speed in this short contest. Those 2 factors stand out better for the 10f+. Rodriguez, Barnes, San Sabo, Cornucopian and Getaway Car are much more aligned to the 10f, while Citizen Bull appears more aligned at 9.5f and under. We'll have to wait until the Santa Anita Derby's fractional times are posted in order to project all of these hotshot Baffert runners.
2/8/2025 SAM F. DAVIS - Tampa Bay
JOHN HANCOCK Results 8.5f clear fast Final Time: 1:42.27
DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75 ANZ = 7.00
Mare Profile = 7-8-4-5-4 Speed = 15 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.53 Triads = 19-17-13 (2nd gen Tapit)
Constitution - Scribbling Sarah (Freud) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Flavien Prat
St. Simon: 33.08%
10f Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Fastest Derby Prep to date and it comes from a 2nd generation Tapit Boy. Obvious speed demon running gate to wire with a 4.33 index that skyrockets up to a 7.00 when adding in the prominent non-chefs. Back that up with additional massive speed inheritance through the mares and then bookend it with Tapit's stamina and 33% linebreeding to St. Simon. WOW!!! This horse is built scary good for the demands of the Derby and he is showing it off proudly so far. There was only one other Tapit offspring who connected so whole-heartedly to his speed inheritance so early - and that was Flightline. As is the case "normally" we would be wise to consider this type of Tapit Boy only as a player underneath, however, we'd be even wiser in this case to consider him for that top spot. One day, Tapit is going to break through in the Kentucky Derby and with the way this horse is built and the way he runs, 2025 could be the year. Major Major Major Player. As we close out Part One of the Derby Prep Analysis - The most promising and best built for the Derby (besides Baffert's Crew) are Patch Adams, Built, and John Hancock. This is stated with 101% confidence. Onward to Part Two.
2025 Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis - Part Two to follow
Watch the lewis race again. Rodriguez is keeping clock tower on his outside. When he speeds up Rodriguez does as well. To me he is only running as fast as he needs to keep clock tower from coming over on Citizen Bull. Leaving citizen bull uncontested on lead. Yes Citizen bull stumble on start but took lead back quick. Then right before the last turn clock tower speeds up and comes over and Rodriguez is pulled up for clock tower to clear and now Rodriguez is on the outside. Citizen bull is now spotted 4 lengths on Rodriguez at the 3/8th pole. Rodriguez now has to regroup and speeds back up on turn on outside but can not catch Citi…
Re Stable Alerts Post: The Robert Lewis, Holy Bull and Swale will be fun viewing today, but odds are too low for wagering. Little value to be had is all. Be watchful today of Lisa's low profile points remarks as well.
PSA. Lisa D's Four and Five Heart Rated STABLE ALERTS
TODAY'S RUNNERS
Donut God is entered today at Gulfstream Park Race 9.
Grayscale is entered today at Gulfstream Park Race 9.
Rodriguez is entered today at Santa Anita Park Race 4.
Tappan Street is entered today at Coast to Coast Pick 5 Race 3.
Tappan Street is entered today at Gulfstream Park Race 11.
Holy Bull 7 horses
Whithers 7 horse race
Can Omaha Omaha get the win???