The 2025 UAE Derby Analysis

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2025 UAE DERBY

Post One: ADMIRE DAYTONA (JPN) Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

DP = 2-2-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 6-4-3-9-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.86   Triads = 13-16-17

Configurations, both top and bottom, are on point historically. This is the horse who ran nose to nose with Luxor Cafe in the 8f maiden at Tokyo racecourse when Luxor broke the track record. He was right with him. (Video posted in Luxor's article.) Daytona took a long break after that race and came back to win at Tokyo in another 8f race against a field of 16. Christophe Lemaire was aboard in both of those races. Unfortunately, his connections decided to wheel him back after only a short 2 week break to face Luxor Cafe again in the Hyacinth Stakes. This time with a different jockey as well. Admire Daytona was only able to capture 4th but still received an RPR of 111 for the effort. Now with full rest and recuperation, he'll be attempting to up his distance on a new track with Lemaire back aboard. His breeding gives him the distance and he provided strong evidence of his speed capability against Luxor Cafe. Currently sitting at 12-1, I love his chances very much and although my heart wants Heart of Honor to win, my brain is telling me that this guy is the best suited and the most likely to stake the win claim on this race. Only the post position puts a slight kink to full confidence.

Post Two: DON IN THE MOOD (JPN) Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

DP = 2-0-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 8-2-6-10-3   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.09   Triads = 16-18-19

He hits the highest RPR of 114 from his last race way back in February against Luxor Cafe traveling 8f. He took 3rd place in that race. Configurations are correct historically and has the best RPR of the bunch, however, the experience is highly lacking and he would really need to step up quite a bit to attempt the new distance so far from home. Board hit is not out of the realm if he takes the jump. I see better for the win and view him as equals with Shin Forever for a piece of the tote board.

Post Three:   DRAGON (JPN) Jockey: Yutaka Take

DP = 1-1-4-2-0 (8) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.13

Mare Profile = 10-4-4-10-4   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.27   Triads = 18-18-18

Stamina horse with an evenly balanced mare scale is fairly neutral for this contest. Its good, but its not great. Came in 5th place in the Hyacinth, a fairly lackluster performance even with Mirco Demuro on his back. Just can't see it happening here.

Post Four:   FLOOD ZONE (USA) Jockey: Florent Geroux

DP = 3-6-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 11-3-0-7-10   Speed = 14   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.93   Triads = 14-10-17 (2nd gen Tapit)

The numbers are there, Tapit's stamina is there, and when reviewing apples for apples, he received an RPR of 111 from his win in the Gotham Stakes. This is even with Admire Daytona's 4th place effort in the Hyacinth and below Don in the Mood from the same. The track will be much faster than what he saw at Aqueduct, so in that sense, we will have the opportunity to gauge his performance on a faster bias that coincides better with Churchill. Numbers are proper which leaves him as a strong contender for Brad Cox. From this faraway perch, I see Flood Zone and Admire Daytona as the best contenders for this race, but Heart of Honor has my heart.

Post Five:   GALACTIC STAR (USA) Jockey: Tadhg O'Shea

DP = 5-5-4-0-0 (14) DI = 6.00   CD = 1.07

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-7-4   Speed = 10   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.10   Triads = 16-16-17

This guy beat Heart of Honor last out in Meydan by a head. Sounds about right with his configurations but hard pressed to make any noise here. Configurations are highly against a win and appears to have zero chance here.

Post Six:   HEART OF HONOR (GB) Jockey: Saffie Osborne

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 12-2-4-2-9   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.25   Triads = 18-8-15

Even though I will be rooting whole-heartedly for this guy to cross the wire first, and even though his top line is more than sufficient for the race at hand, his mare line is somewhat off for this particular race. Not impossible, but he does have a slight disadvantage here. Trained by Jamie Osborne, the son of Honor A.P. has been stationed in Meydan with 5 races and has taken first and second in each of them. His numbers say board hit, not win. But, it certainly would be extremely thrilling if he could actually pull it off.

Post Seven:   RAFID (USA) Jockey: John Velazquez

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 5-7-6-8-1   Speed = 12   Stamina = 9   Index = 1.44   Triads = 18-21-15

Mare line is completely off and based on his only one success out of 6 races coming at the 7f mark, he seems to be firmly attached to those mares. Huge pass.

Post Eight:   SHIN FOREVER (USA) Jockey: Akira Sugawara

DP = 2-9-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 0.65

Mare Profile = 7-4-3-5-9   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.81   Triads = 14-12-17

Highly regarded colt currently sitting at 4-1 has only one win out of five races. Did his best running last out at 8f with an RPR of 102, but was still beaten by 1 3/4 lengths behind Golden Vekoma at the wire. He would be breaking tradition if he were to win this race with his 3.44 index, although he does have ample stamina for the 1900 meter contest. Board hit configurations based on advancement in his speed from last outing.

Post Nine:   QUEEN AZTECA (USA) Jockey: Carlos Lopez

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 6-4-4-10-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.77   Triads = 14-18-20

The girl of the field and winner of the Grade 3 UAE Oaks last out. Her RPR for that race is highly subpar against many others here, at only 84. Even with inability to attach her properly configured numbers with the boys, it does not appear that her speed is on par with the rest.

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Heart of Honor, trained by Jamie Osborne, will make his next start in the 2025 UAE Derby. He is the son of the absolutely stunning and one of the most beautiful thoroughbreds of the past decade, Honor A.P.

The video at the top, posted by Jamie Osborne on X, will pull at your "heart" strings and the strong sentiment to see the son of Honor A.P. win this event is sure to do the same. Following your heart doesn't always pan out though. Does he have what it truly takes to win the UAE Derby and ultimately stake claim to a gate at Churchill Downs?

There is something in the Dubai air that produces one of the most exciting Derby Preps of the year, however, it does not produce much luck in Kentucky.

Out of the full 19 editions of this race, only one had gone on to hit a small piece of the tote board at Churchill Downs. That came last year with Japan's Forever Young.

While there has been some incredible colts who went on to become major Champions including Rebel's Romance, Mendelssohn, Thunder Snow, and Toast of New York, the Kentucky Derby was never in the lucky cards for them.

The main reason is that the UAE Derby is not very kind to severe inbred speed which is a major prerequisite to the Kentucky Derby.

Heart of Honor breezes in Dubai

Up until 2023, the chef index cut-off was overwhelmingly set at 2.70 and has since risen to 3.00 with the additions of Derma Sotogake and Forever Young. Even still, the fact remains that these winners all do have one thing in common, they all lean to stamina within their breeding.

Here's the breakdown:

Chef Index at 3.00 and Under: 100% Win

Chef Index at 3.10 and over: 0% Win

Chef Index Exactly 3.00: 16% Win

Chef Index in the 2.00 Category: 31% Win

Chef Index 1.00 Category and Under: 53% Win

Chef index Over 3.00: 0% Win

Mare Index: 1.00 and Over: 31% Win

Mare Index: .99 and Under: 69% Win

Mare Speed Total 13 and Under: 79% Win

Mare Speed Total Exactly 14: 21% Win

Mare Speed Total Over 14: 0% Win

Ascending Triads: 74% Win Balanced Triads: 26% Win Descending Triads: 0% Win

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Here is the breakdown of every edition of the UAE Derby back to 2005.

2024 Forever Young Chef: 3.00 Mares: .88 Speed: 10 Triads: 16-15-19 3rd in the Derby.

2023 Derma Sotogake Chef: 3.00 Mares: .88 Speed: 10 Triads: 15-16-20 6th in the Derby.

2022 Crown Pride Chef: 1.55 Mares: 1.05 Speed: 12 Triads: 14-15-17 13th in the Derby.

2021 Rebel's Romance Chef: 1.10 Mares: .61 Speed: 9 Triads: 11-13-19 Did not Compete in the Derby.

2019 Plus Que Parfait Chef: 2.47 Mares: .57 Speed: 6 Triads: 12-16-21 8th in the Derby.

2018 Mendelssohn Chef: 1.80 Mares: 1.09 Speed: 13 Triads: 17-18-17 20th in the Derby.

2017 Thunder Snow Chef: .89 Mares: .71 Speed: 12 Triads: 15-24-19 Did Not Finish in the Derby.

2016 Lani (Tapit) Chef: 2.50 Mares: .96 Speed: 14 Triads: 15-12-16 9th in the Derby.

2015 Mubtaahij Chef: 1.00 Mares: 1.00 Speed: 12 Triads: 16-20-18 8th in the Derby.

2014 Toast of New York Chef: 1.21 Mares: 1.00 Speed: 14 Triads: 18-26-19 Did not Run in The Derby.

2013 Lines of Battle Chef: 1.95 Mares: .77 Speed: 12 Triads: 13-25-19 7th in the Derby.

2012 Daddy Long Legs Chef: 3.00 Mares: .89 Speed: 14 Triads: 16-11-17 Did Not Finish in the Derby.

2011 Khawlah Chef: 1.40 Mares: .68 Speed: 11 Triads: 13-18-18 Did not Compete in the Derby.

2010 Musir Chef: 1.40 Mares: 1.00 Speed: 14 Triads: 16-28-18 Did not compete in the Derby.

The following years were run at a shorter distance, (1800 meters as opposed to 1900) which do not correlate to today, however, the criteria and outcomes still remains the same.

2009 Regal Ransom Chef: 2.00 Mares: .71 Speed: 11 Triads: 14-19-21 Came in 8th in the Derby.

2008 Honour Devil  Chef: 2.50 Mares: .64 Speed: 7 Triads: 10-15-17 Did not run in the Derby.

2007 Asiatic Boy Chef: 2.56 Mares: 1.07 Speed: 12 Triads: 14-15-16 Did not run in the Derby.

2006 Discreet Cat Chef: 2.67 Mares: .88 Speed: 12 Triads: 15-14-18 Did not run in the Derby.

2005 Blues and Royals Chef: 1.00 Mares: .90 Speed: 12 Triads: 13-13-14 Did not Run in the Derby

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The RESULT and THE HEARTBREAK IS REAL.