Luxor Cafe

On November 23, 2024, Ryan Moore took the mount on Luxor Cafe at Nakayama for his 3rd attempt at breaking his maiden. The 8f contest was filled to the brim with 16 competitors. Luxor Cafe was installed in the 15th gate.

He beat them all in a final time of 1:35.80 and BROKE THE TRACK RECORD. This race, he runs nose to nose down the stretch with Admire Daytona, who will be making his next start in the UAE Derby.

Five weeks later, entered into the Kurochiko Sho back at Nakayama for a 9f contest against 14 competitors. He was installed in the 9th gate. He beat them all again. This time, running up front with the lead pace. He took off like a rocket when asked to go.

January 11, 2025 Nakayama 9th Race Kurotake Prize Dirt 1800m Luxor Cafe

Then came the Hyacinth Stakes and with it came 30 Kentucky Derby Prep Points. This time, Mid-pack. 9th gate.

Followed by the Fukuryu Stakes with an additional 40 Derby points. This time, 4 wide below mid-pack. 11th gate.

LUXOR CAFE American Pharoah - Mary's Follies (More Than Ready)

DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 1.17 ANZ = 8.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.79   Triads = 13-13-16

Trainer: Nuriyuki Hori

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

With his mare triads severely under par when it comes to the history of the Kentucky Derby, and with the way this horse performs, there had to be something lurking in his chart to counteract the 13-13-16 configurations.

There just had to be... and there was.

Third Generation on the bottom of his chart.

MISWAKI. (1978-2004)

Miswaki is the son of the brilliant/classic chef Mr. Prospector. Miswaki sired 97 stakes winners both in the USA and abroad and he was the leading broodmare sire in Ireland and Great Britain for 2 years, in 1999 and 2001. His dam was Hopespringseternal, daughter of the classic chef, Buckpasser.

Miswaki is best known as being the sire of the great Urban Sea who won the 1993 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and was the dam to Sea the Stars and the infamous Galileo. Miswaki was also the sire of Black Tie Affair, the Horse of the Year in 1991.

Successful in his own right but that is not what glorifies Miswaki when reading a new chart. He possessed an overload of extra special DNA from some of the most magnificent and significant chefs from Dr. Roman's list. To say that this horse was carrying and distributing overloaded speed and stamina is an understatement.

DP = 20-10-28-2-0 (60) DI = 2.75   CD = 0.80

For Miswaki himself, his numbers alone would have easily pointed out a 10f dirt player, as these are ideal Kentucky Derby configurations, especially back then. But that's not how his brimming configurations played out.

Trained by Woody Stephens, he became a sprinter on turf. With all that he inherited, his scale was so overloaded on both sides; the speed side (sprinter) and the stamina side (turf) - the extreme balance overly defined from all of that inheritance. The 2.75 index sat him right in the middle with pounds of speed and pounds of stamina on both sides of his split scale.

He took that inheritance with him into the breeding shed.

The list of chefs in the horse's chart reads like the "Who's Who" in the history of the greatest Stallions who ever lived and noted as being the elite Masters of the Breed. Names like Buckpasser, Raise a Native, Native Dancer, Nashua, Tom Fool, Princequillo, Count Fleet, Nasrullah, War Admiral, etc. etc.

There are many charts that are dotted with some of these names going back decades and decades, but when it comes to Miswaki, each one of these highly acclaimed stallions sat within his first to fourth generations. All of them.

As a matter of fact, all but two of every single sire within his first 4 generations was a listed chef. His profile was loaded.

When Miswaki shows up on a chart, he imparts MAGIC. An overabundance of killer speed with enough stamina to work on a turf surface. Extraordinary and massive amounts are passed down whereby most recipients will be able to conquer dirt, AWS, turf, dry, wet, fast biases, or slow biases... the pavement, a sandy beach, storms and tornados! They inherit such quality components that they excel anywhere. The recipient is able to draw from the most celebrated qualities of these highly acclaimed stallions, capturing the prepotent traits from within the entire group.

The closer Miswaki sits to a new colt within the chart, the greater the influence. Miswaki sits in Cafe Luxor's 3rd generation.

It is rare to spot Miswaki within any chart, but if you do, pay close attention - especially when he sits so close up.

The Second Item in Luxor Cafe's chart is the presence of Ribot and Flower Bowl through Graustark on the top of his chart. As if that wasn't enough, Ribot is actually positioned 3X in Luxor's chart. The presence of Ribot (and Flower Bowl) is a sign of great stamina, coupled with raw determination. A winning combo when the colt accepts it. By all measures, Luxor Cafe is not only accepting it, but he is flaunting it.

While Luxor Cafe's "TRIADS" do not hit the proper level historically, it would seem to reason that it is not the mares who are a dominating force within this colt's chart.

In its simplest form, "packed and loaded" triads denotes an overabundance of elite mare bloodlines traveling throughout a chart. The more the better and when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, 19 par across all three slots is ideal. In Cafe Luxor's case, obviously he does not hold it from the mares, but he appears to be capturing it from the sires through Miswaki.

While his sire, Triple Crown Winner, American Pharoah (also carrying sub-par triads) held Ribot and Flower Bowl twice within his chart, he was not holding Miswaki. Sire for sire and chef for chef, by all accounts, Luxor's chart stands above Pharoah's.

American Pharoah

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 7-4-4-9-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 15-17-17

When analyzing a colt for suitability for the Kentucky Derby, there are several factors that override a simple win in a Derby prep. The historical layout of their configurations do point out distance capabilities and suitability within their balance but the horse must DISPLAY his attachment to those "pre-destined" qualifications.

THE EVIDENCE:

1. Luxor Cafe's mares contribute 11.75f even with the subpar triads.

   
   

2. He was able to win from both off the pace and up front with the pace. This points to no negativity with style of running and capability if he were to have a bad break, steadied or otherwise bumped out of the gate. Most colts do not have this quality.

   
   

3. He was able to run successfully on a muddy surface (he took 2nd place by a neck) and obvious prowess on a fast clean track. This points to a colt who will be equally fine regardless of Derby Day weather.

   
   

4. In the Fukuryu Stakes, he ran from far off the pace, 4 wide, and straight into extremely pedestrian early fractions:

   (thank you, Bill!)

   24.7 50.9 1:15.4 1:40.1 1:52.1

   He did NOT capitalize off of retreating horses due to a blistering pace. He was not responsible for these slow (early) times and when Moreira pressed the button, he took off like a jet rocket bypassing 10 horses at 9f who all had plenty of reserve in the tank. His speed excelled late when he received his cue. Luxor won this race on his own merit and not because of insane 1st and 2nd calls where the lead tier disintegrates. That would have been the easy route and would have diminished the win. His jockey let him loose at the precise moment and this horse responded perfectly. This race portrayed evidence of his STAMINA acceptance.

   
   

5. He has experience with a 16 horse gate. He won that race as well.

   
   

6. He found success with 5 different jockeys on 3 separate tracks and 4 separate biases. This is Miswaki in action. The 82% sand composition mixed with the silt and clay at Churchill is still fairly comparable to Nakayama. Regardless, his experience at being adept on a multitude of surfaces should easily carry. Apart from the traveling aspect, track bias and weather conditions should be easily achievable.

   
   

7. He won his 8f maiden in a track record final time of 1:35.80. This is the race where Ryan Moore accompanied him in the 15th gate with a full and packed field of 16 competitors. This race portrayed evidence of his speed acceptance.

   
   

   His final time was faster than the following 8f races:

   
   

   The Grade 1 Champagne Stakes with Chancer McPatrick.

   The Grade 3 Robert B Lewis (with a field of 5) with Citizen Bull.

   It is much faster than the 300k Springboard Mile with Coal Battle.

   It blows away the Grade 3 Gotham with Flood Zone.

   It beats Journalism's 8f maiden.

   It beats the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes with Owen Almighty and Jonathan's Way.

   It beats the 75k OC with Praetor.

   It beats the well-regarded Sovereignty's stellar 8f maiden.

   It annihilates Rapture's 8f Maiden win.

   It is exactly even with Rodriguez's dazzling and fancy 8f Maiden at Santa Anita. Rodriquez was installed in gate one with a field of 6. He went gate to wire against the rail. Same final time.

   
   

8. His sire won the Triple Crown.

   
   

9. Determination and the will to win is severely under-rated. This is a sure sign of a champion and when Ribot and Flower Bowl appear within a chart, chances are very high that new colt will accept this mindset. For example, Frankel was the epitome of will and determination and you could just see it unveil itself the closer he came to any wire. Luxor Cafe exhibits that same outward conviction as he rounds a track's final turns. It is readable with this horse.

10. That is all the evidence I need. He'll be spread across in the Super.