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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

The Derby Profile - Part Two


Code of Honor

Back in August of 2018, fellow Dirty Horse Club friend, Brian, sent me the name of a new two year old who had shown some brilliance in his early maiden. His name was Code of Honor. This was a full 8 or 9 months before the Kentucky Derby.


After about one hour of looking into this horse, I knew, he was either going to win the Kentucky Derby or he was at least grabbing a piece of that tote board. I did a full blown article on the young maiden winner about a month later, praising his breeding and the potential champion qualities that he possessed based on his numbers, his chart, his style and his performance on the Saratoga track. We stuck with him straight through. Code of Honor came in second place in the 2019 Derby.


I remind you of this for two reasons. One, contrary to popular push back, it is not impossible to read a colt's capabilities with his dosage figures and his chart even with simply one or two young races under his belt. Two, Code of Honor's sire, Noble Mission is quite the sire and those bloodlines are magnificent.


Let's see if we can do the very same thing with a very similar horse. He debuts Friday at Aqueduct Race 6, Nov. 11th.

(SCRATCHED NOW)


The unraced two year old: CODE NAME Noble Mission - Reunion (Speightstown)

Federico Tesio stated "Similar, but not the same" when speaking about his successes as a breeder. Code Name certainly fills that bill and his chart is spectacular. If he has a will to run, he is certainly backed with the best. His chart is stunning.


Code Name is a 3/4+ brother to Code of Honor. Both bred by William Farish, Lanes End.


Their sire, Noble Mission, points straight through to the great Galileo and Sadler's Wells. Both are listed Classic/Solid Chefs and lead straight to the 4th sire in line, Northern Dancer. He is a listed Brilliant, Classic chef as well. Obviously, the entire top of his chart is exact to Code of Honor. The very bottom blocks through Reunited are also exact. Similar, but not the same, the entire line through Speightstown is added into the mix. With that, Gone West (I,C) and Mr. Prospector (B, C) both come with it as well.


CODE NAME Noble Mission - Reunion (Speightstown)

DP = 2-3-12-7-0 (24) DI = 0.85 CD = 0.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-3-11-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.73 Triads = 14-20-20


If those numbers don't get your heart racing, I don't know what will! Just to compare with his close kin:

CODE of HONOR Noble Mission - Reunited (Dixie Union)

DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = 0.00

Mare Profile = 2-10-2-13-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-25-20


The glaring difference is in the mares profile, while everything else is magnificently similar:


The Brilliant slot (4 to 6f) and the Intermediate Slot (7f to 9f) are split with Code Name, whereas the weight lies in the Intermediate slot for Code of Honor. This will have no real impact after 8f, but Code Name will be running his first maiden race tomorrow at Aqueduct for Shug McGaughey and this is major. His maiden is 6f. That 5 points in the brilliant slot could actually be the key to his success in this short race, which is way under his optimum or the split hurts him. There is no dominance in the speed wing like Code of Honor, it's spread.


We can see that Code Name is built with impressive stamina, just like his "close" brother. With a 0.85 chef index and a CD at 0.00 and a wonderful 6 point spread leaning to stamina from those mares, that brilliant slot of his mares profile NEEDS to show up and he needs to pull from it. Code of Honor won his maiden, wire to wire and that was with the help of the 10 points in his mares Intermediate slot. Let's see how Code Name handles the split speed wing tomorrow, under his optimum. Hopefully, he turns out to favor a front running style as well. That would be wonderful.


Gathering the clues of potential success with a "stamina category" colt relies on the horse performing AGAINST the side where he is obviously dominant. We already know that the horse has spectacular endurance just by briefly glancing at his configurations. There is no need for mathematics, but, to be thorough, he calculates to 11.9f inbred capability. He has the 10f Derby distance easily, now we have to see if he could actually be a player when it come to his speed side.


In order to figure this out, we have to see if Code Name can attach himself to what is in his chart which will either show a long-distance SLOW rear runner who could never compete against raw speed OR if he can capitalize off of that speed wing from his mares. We have to see if the horse has an allegiance to his incredible breeding and raw potential with these configurations.


Referring back to his chart, he also has a few extra things tucked away to help him succeed in this "disadvantaged" 6f race against sprinters who thrive at this distance. He has two prominent non-chefs in the first 4 generations of his chart. Dixie Union and Storm Cat, both of which are a heavy SPEED influence through their bloodlines.


The next item to look at is the workouts. Where have they been and is he DISPLAYING speed AGAINST his dominant stamina influence. Most recent, 9 posted workouts, all at Belmont Park. Fair track, normal fast bias. All breezing at 4f from an impressive time of 47.66 to the highest of 50.74. Two things about this. Since he has never given any performances, we do not know his STYLE of running. So, the workouts, although half decent, there is no frame of reference. If he is a mid-pack, rear runner or late runner, then these times would be stellar. If he is a lead or stalk (fast out of the gate), then these times are "normal" for a 2 year old non-starter at Belmont Park. 4f is still 4f, whether alone in his works or competing on the field. We will get a handle on this once we see him in action.


For his race tomorrow, we will gather crucial evidence. This type of breeding, overly stamina dominant, will not be walking into that gate with any type of advantage, other than his impeccable breeding. It would be phenomenal if he could actually win this race. If he does, automatic 5 stars for the Derby after his first race, just like Extra Anejo. If he hits the board and can show some will and determination in his defeat, I would still give the horse 5 stars for his 6f test. If he comes in dead last, he is highly influenced by his chefs and probably could not compete with the lack of inbred speed in the Kentucky Derby. I have faith that will not be the case here. Not with that gorgeous chart.


After the maiden, we will be able to attach his style to his numbers and get a bit of insight into his bias preferences. We will be able to see which side he favors and what type of bias/track would enhance his qualities. This will be revisited after the race and updated.


Next step. The beautiful mare triads.

Code Name obviously hits the par on the side that matters for the Derby, the stamina side. He has the distance, but does he have the speed. It is not so much "inbred" into him from these mares, nor from the chefs profile.


In Code Name's case, he MUST DISPLAY evidence of speed. We could only hope it comes from his style → on the lead or stalking up front. If not there, then a killer turn of foot late.


We must see the speed side with Code Name. We need evidence of balance with his scale for the Derby. This may come when he is older and is not relying on his inheritance but that does us no good for the May race.


There is no waiting til he's mature and running on his own. It has to present itself this early as it pertains to being a Derby player or not. With Code of Honor, all 10 points in the Intermediate slot of his speed side in his mares profile went straight to the Classic slot of his triads, leaving him with 14-25-20. In Code Name's case, he loses some in the center because of the split and that spot is the key to the Derby. The Classic distance. He still hits par either way, but more is always better.


He will be advantaged when he hits 7f and up because that is when the young sprinting horses tend to disintegrate. He will find favor on harder tracks whereas the speedsters will falter on the lead. Aqueduct, Saratoga, Churchill, Fairgrounds, Turfway, etc and he has his breeding to back him. Deep mud tracks, excellent. If he follows Code of Honor, wet tracks should be fine as well.


Here is where it gets good. Let's say, he beats speedsters at 6, 7, 8f, especially out front. This means he is displaying speed AGAINST THE GRAIN. He performs on a wet track or he does well on a heavy speed bias. We know that he has the distance in his back pocket, which means Code Name will join Extra Anejo as major prospects for the Derby. It starts with his first maiden tomorrow.


Noble Mission's mare, KIND (ire), leads directly to His Majesty, which gives us the favorable Ribot and Flower Bowl Combination on the top his chart. This in turn, leads to his substantial linebreeding. Would be nicer if it was Graustark, but we take what we can get. Even with Mr. Prospector inserting himself (line-breeds to Teddy), the high percentage of line-breeding through that long list leads directly to St. Simon.


This horse is built for success. If he can show us that his stamina does not over-power his raw speed potential and he shows the determination to run and compete, we are in for a very nice ride with this guy. It all starts with watching every move this horse makes from now until March.


*Well, he was scratched - so we will wait on him and revisit as soon as he hits that track.


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