A Layout of the Numbers - Updated

For the last decade and beyond, there were at least 5 or 6 colts who stood out based on their historically perfect configurations. The perfect blend, the perfect layout, and the perfect balance. It is not the case this year.

Here is the layout of the cards we have been dealt in 2025.

PERFECT CONFIGURATIONS FOR THE WIN

RODRIGUEZ

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-5-8-12-2   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 17-25-22

That's it. Just one out of twenty. I cannot recall any year where only one set of configurations hit the mark within the entire proposed field. These are Derby numbers and Rodriguez is built for the 10f race at Churchill Downs and also the Belmont at Saratoga.

Rodriguez has shown complete adherence to those numbers. He has successfully traveled outside of Baffert's Eutopia. He has shown that he does not need to lead in order to be competitive. If this horse gets a nice clean trip, he has no excuses if he doesn't collect on his efforts.

Even though he is part of the "Into Mischief Brigade", his mare line is configured the best of the bunch.

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PERFECT CONFIGURATIONS FOR BOARD HIT with SPECIFIC BIAS

NEOEQUOS

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 3-8-7-10-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.91   Triads = 18-25-20

Neoequos inherited massive speed along with a very nice layout across his mares line. He is built similarly to Nyquist, however, his mares gave him a tad more in the speed department which could easily cut in to his stamina. On a fast clear track, he will gain some extra lengths and would be aided on a slicker wet bias, giving him somewhat of an advantage over the more stamina dominant colts that are entered. Basically, he gains an upperhand on that type of bias because it negatively affects a handful of them, he gains advantage by default in that scenario.

Very rare to see such heightened (chef) speed leaning colts win this race, but they do hit that board when the bias aligns. His mare configurations are definitely on par for this race and outweigh most of the Into Mischief boys, but he is holding at least double the inherited speed over them, which, of course, could be a slight problem at 10f.

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HIGH PROFILE POINTS

SANDMAN

DP = 6-15-13-2-0 (36) DI = 3.24   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 3.24

Mare Profile = 8-5-1-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-13-16 (Tapit)

GRANDE

DP = 6-10-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 5-6-1-9-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.65   Triads = 12-16-18

High profile points depicts a colts who has either a very high amount of chefs sitting within their first 4 generations and/or are sitting closer up within those generations. Throughout history, these high profile horses have done very well on the tote board in various positions, most times grabbing the win... Especially in the rain. In many cases, that loaded chef profile nullifies the mares configurations - (in Sandman's case).

See article with full chart: "The Power of the Packed Profile."

For Sandman, the slight kink that keeps him for joining Rodriguez with holding the perfect configurations for the win is the Tapit factor. Throughout history, a Tapit boy has never won the Derby because the balance shifts to stamina dominancy. The scale shifts without the proper mare configurations.

The good news for Sandman is that he is sitting with a 3.24 index which puts him within a better speed balance (3.20+) for a Tapit offspring which would offset the mares. The fact that he is holding 36 total chef points puts him with higher advantage over his kin within the field for board hit consideration.

He is built like Essential Quality, who took third in the Derby in 2021. Essential Quality held 32 points and a 3.50 ANZ index. If Sandman were to win the Derby, he would be the very first Tapit son to accomplish that feat.

Grande was added to this category even though he is 2 points shy in his profile (30 is ideal.) Against this full group though, he is stacked both through the chefs and the mares. Most of the probables are sitting with 10 points and under. His Intermediate and Classic slots are loaded on top of a huge spread leaning to stamina through his mares.

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THE INTO MISCHIEF BRIGADE

RODRIGUEZ

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-5-8-12-2   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 17-25-22

CITIZEN BULL

DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-26-18

SOVEREIGNTY

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-22-16

TAPPAN STREET

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 4-10-5-7-4   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.15   Triads = 19-22-16

Into Mischief is a Prominent Non-Chef who passes through additional stamina. Each of the four only gain chef influence through the bottom of their charts. The low points and high chef index is a direct result of this. Storm Cat also comes through on the top as a listed non-chef (Intermediate).

Where Into Mischief lacks with chefs, he more than makes up with it through the Reines. Triads are always packed, however, most times you will see the Speed/Stamina balance shift to Speed (which is not ideal) and you will see descending triads (which is not ideal). They are usually always off by just a couple of points to find perfection but still find success for the tote board none-the-less.

Another important note with Into Mischief - when he is present in the chart, you also get the Ribot and Flower Bowl combination through His Majesty. That is a very nice coin to hold when it comes to the Derby.

Besides Rodriguez, Citizen Bull is sitting with the highest inbred speed through the chefs and the highest inbred stamina through the mares. Sovereignty and Tappan Street both make-up their stamina through their chefs that are found on the bottom half of their charts. Realistically, both Sovereignty and Tappan Street have mare configurations that knock the scale in the wrong direction. Quite the opposite of Rodriguez.

Because of the higher speed dominance with these configurations, generally they do well on both a clean track and a wet track, depending on the depth of the mud. The three guys under Rodriguez have very good configurations, but they are not perfect.

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THE TAPIT BRIGADE

SANDMAN

DP = 6-15-13-2-0 (36) DI = 3.24   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 3.24

Mare Profile = 8-5-1-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-13-16 (Tapit)

AMERICAN PROMISE

DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.71     ANZ = 3.50

Mare Profile = 10-2-6-5-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-13-19 (2nd gen Tapit)

TIZTASTIC

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 10-5-3-6-5   Speed = 15   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.47   Triads = 18-14-14 (Tapit 2X)

FINAL GAMBIT

DP = 2-7-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.46 ANZ = 2.73

Mare Profile = 6-9-2-9-4   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 17-20-15 (2nd gen Tapit)

See article: "Tapping Into Tapit."

Sandman, American Promise and Tiztastic have the proper scale and balance for the Derby with an offset of high speed inheritance over the 3.20 mark.

Final Gambit has 12f Belmont Stakes numbers, which means he can run all day. Workouts have been looking good and he has the speed to come flying late, if that is how the pace plays out. The Not This Time factor, which adds additional killer speed, is a huge prop that deserves extra consideration here.

The knock, again, is that Tapit has never produced a Derby winner, while some have had enough speed to grab a board hit. He's the Belmont guy. One day he will succeed, but what year that will be is up in the air.

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THE HALF DECENT SCALE/BALANCE COLTS

BAEZA

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00

Mare Profile = 9-6-2-9-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.13   Triads = 17-17-17

OWEN ALMIGHTY

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 4.33

Mare Profile = 6-4-8-5-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-17-18

ADMIRE DAYTONA

DP = 2-2-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 6-4-3-9-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.86   Triads = 13-16-17

CHUNK OF GOLD

DP = 1-3-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.33

Mare Profile = 9-2-6-7-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.13   Triads = 17-15-18

PUBLISHER

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 9-2-4-10-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.20   Triads = 15-16-17

These five colts have the 10f distance with a fairly even COMBINED scale. They are not packed and loaded but they are balanced properly for the distance with a more steady and moderate inheritance. Triads are insufficient, however, the balance would keep them competitive throughout the race.

Basically, if their chefs sit on the speed side, then their mares compliment with the stamina side (Owen and Publisher). If the chefs sit on the stamina side, then the mares compliment with the speed (Daytona, Baeza and Gold). They even out each other quite nicely, it is just not as massive as this race prefers. With Daytona, his prominent non-chefs also tackle that spread very well. He gets a bit more aid in that regard.

While they do not have winning configurations for the Derby, they do possess a scale that could get them to the board underneath based on how each of their scales combine to have more ease with distribution of what they inherited. The speed/stamina scale is moderate but balanced properly.

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THE STAMINA DOMINANT COLTS

GRANDE

DP = 6-10-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 5-6-1-9-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.65   Triads = 12-16-18

(in Outliers and Packed category as well)

FINAL GAMBIT

DP = 2-7-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.46 ANZ = 2.73

Mare Profile = 6-9-2-9-4   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 17-20-15 (2nd gen Tapit)

(in Outliers and Tapit Categories as well)

FLYING MOHAWK

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 5-4-5-9-7   Speed = 9   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.68   Triads = 14-18-21

RENDER JUDGMENT

DP = 4-3-10-1-0 (18) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.56 ANZ = 2.67

Mare Profile = 6-7-3-7-10   Speed = 13   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.73   Triads = 16-17-20

These four guys have the 10f inheritance to run the Churchill track backwards. Importantly, three of them hold perfect 12f Belmont Stakes numbers, not Kentucky Derby numbers. (Grande is slightly off for 12f Belmont). Index at 3.00 and under with massive stamina side on the scale (or Tapit) is 12f Belmont Stakes.

Since all 4 of these guys lean greatly to stamina, they won't necessarily flash speed in the shorter distances along the trail, nor in their short workouts. They do, however, hold a major edge on a certain bias and with a certain extreme pace structure. They will keep on running. Those who have at least displayed some type of killer speed along the way will be in a great position at 10f.

This is why it was imperative to witness any over the top speed with them along the Derby Trail and within their workouts, especially on a dirt surface.

The Kentucky Derby requires massive speed plus massive stamina. Both sides. (Grande is actually sitting in the best spot with his combined scale out of the four.) If they don't inherit both sides, then they must display it along the way. Evidence of that speed must be readable using their beyers, their workouts, their style of running, etc. for their lop-sided scale to work in this race.

Important to note though with these 4 guys - if the track happens to be extremely muddy and very deep, these are the colts that have the best endurance to withstand the punishment. If it is simply wet, then they retain no advantage. Deep and yielding mud, they retain full advantage. In addition, these are the types who do not waste energy early and can take advantage of a suicidal pace, but they won't be quick about it.

The 2019 edition of the Derby is a perfect example. Deep Sloppy Muddy track and the longshot Country House, who had a 2.69 Mid-range index with a mare balance of Speed: 10 Stamina: 19 and Triads 12-18-21. With 9 large points to the good on the stamina side of the scale, he was able to withstand the harsher track. Country House was holding quintessential 12f Belmont Stakes configurations.

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THE SPEED DOMINANT COLTS

BURNHAM SQUARE

DP = 4-13-5-0-0 (22) DI = 7.80   CD = 0.95 ANZ = 8.60

Mare Profile = 6-7-3-5-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.10   Triads = 16-15-14

COAL BATTLE

DP = 1-7-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.80

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-5-5   Speed = 15   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.42   Triads = 19-16-14

EAST AVENUE

DP = 5-9-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 13-3-2-5-6   Speed = 16   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.63   Triads = 18-10-13

These three guys are the complete opposite of Final Gambit, Flying Mohawk and Grande. Their scale is completely dominant on the speed side. These are the types who win their shorter preps with high beyer figures but lack completely in stamina inheritance. When they do outwardly display their speed in order to gain the points necessary to make the Derby gate, they are giving us the evidence that they are accepting their inheritance fully, which means they are also prone to accept the fact that they did not receive any hidden ability to take their distance further.

None of these horses gained enough in the stamina department to compliment their massive speed inheritance. They proved along the way that they have accepted their numbers. Historically, these are the worst figures of the bunch, regardless of Thorograph, Beyers, Final Times and Projections. They are not built for endurance with barely enough for the Preakness.

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THE OUTLIERS

LUXOR CAFE

DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 1.17 ANZ = 8.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.79   Triads = 13-13-16

JOURNALISM

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.57

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18

FINAL GAMBIT

DP = 2-7-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.46 ANZ = 2.73

Mare Profile = 6-9-2-9-4   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 17-20-15 (2nd gen Tapit)

GRANDE

DP = 6-10-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 5-6-1-9-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.65   Triads = 12-16-18

These four guys do not have the proper (winning) layout in their Mare's triads. Three are speed dominant (through the chefs) which makes them competitive. All four have shown growth, determination, and talent. While Final Gambit is built more to the stamina side with Tapit, Not This Time could easily offset on the dirt.

Grande is the only one who is "massively" balanced top and bottom, but still not perfect in both sets.

Whether it is an exceptional chart that does not translate within the configurations, or if it is rising growth, or even if it is simply will and determination, these four guys have something outside of their layouts that could be a factor.

They have the speed to compete over the stamina dominant colts and they have much better aligned mare scales and ascending triads over the speed dominant category. While the Reines are not loaded as the Derby demands, the scales are at least in the proper balance. (Out of the four, Grande and Final Gambit are configured the best for an extremely fast pace.)

It is very important to convey that only one probable is holding the proper configurations that adhere to high advantage historically, there are 19 competitors who do not. These 4 guys are lumped into those 19 competitors as well, so performances and projection must be consulted.

Luxor Cafe has one of the best charts of the field. Journalism has been consistent with success against good horses. Final Gambit can fly late. Grande is on the move. Whether or not those outside factors override the sub-par mares numbers for the Kentucky Derby is purely a crapshoot, but the fact that only one is built perfectly for the race should help that problem along.