This article may not be copied, reproduced, translated, or paraphrased, in whole or in part without consent. 4/28/2025 LDM

Listed in order of Highest Inbred Chef Speed to Highest Inbred Chef Stamina.

Mares and specific sires are taken into account separately.

This analysis was posted prior to the present weather conditions. Added corresponding advantages.

TYPE ONE MUDDY TRACK: Deep, thick, heavy sloppy track.

TYPE TWO MUDDY TRACK: Wet, Fast, Slick, or Sealed

3.10+ Speed Group

Citizen Bull

Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor)

DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-26-18

TYPE TWO - borderline

April 5th on Santa Anita Derby day, there was a very strong bias that was not kind to the lead tier all day. Based on his highest and best E1 and E2 beyer figures of his career in that race, it would seem to reason that the bias swept the lead tier much faster than norm and terminated all normal advantage that day. That said, coming out of post one, it would also seem to reason that he would have to come fairly close to those early figures (99 and 109) to compete with the speedsters up front. Common sense would dictate that he downgrades late in the same exact manner (down to 82 at only 9f in SA Derby). But this is a Baffert horse, and common sense usually does not apply. This horse is packing a 9.00 index, the highest on the field. He is stacked with speed and his mares triads would have been better served with a much lower number in the first slot. Chefs and Mares combined, he tilts over to the speed side with barely enough stamina to counteract. The numbers basically hike the speed side of his scale to at least 3 points higher when combined. The only way he distributes this properly is if he can somehow take hold of that lead and slow down that pace, otherwise he is in it to assist Rodriguez, which seems more likely. Baffert will not sacrifice Citizen Bull for the rear runners. The only other horse who truly wants to exhibit those types of early (SA) figures is East Avenue and he drew post 12, so the likelihood of that guy beating out Citizen Bull to the lead is slim to none. Moderate fast pace and Citizen Bull has enough for a board hit, enough to assist Rodriguez down the backstretch, enough to block the rail - and that is mainly due to coming from Baffert's usual Derby playbook and the 26 points found in the Classic center of his triads.

After looking at the recent works, both at Santa Anita and the latest at Churchill Downs, Baffert is prepping this horse to go gate to wire and to win this race. Four bullets out of his last 5 works. On 4/28 at Churchill, he ran a 5f bullet in 58.40. This is Baffert's Derby horse. Smooth as silk work: Churchill He looks fantastic.

Burnham Square

Liam's Map - Linda (Scat Daddy)

DP = 4-13-5-0-0 (22) DI = 7.80   CD = 0.95 ANZ = 8.60

Mare Profile = 6-7-3-5-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.10   Triads = 16-15-14

This guy is extremely strange. He is drenched in inherited speed, and just like Sovereignty, he has a running style that goes against the grain. He's a bit all over the place in his races, as if he isn't too sure what he should be. Could be the training. He's a very nice horse but for the Kentucky Derby, every single point in every single area of these configurations are completely opposite of what they should be for this race. Not one item is correct to even look deeper into. He doesn't even have a speck of the St. Simon factor to consider either. It's just too wrong to go any further with it for this particular race.

Neoequos

Neolithic - Bold Birdie (Birdstone)

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 3-8-7-10-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.91   Triads = 18-25-20

These numbers aren't half bad (board hit) and they actually resemble Citizen Bull's balance very much but they differ in quality. The problem with this guy is that he wants a forward spot, he drew post two, and he has shown his best energy distribution at 7f and under. His early speed would need to match what he did at those distances in this race against Citizen Bull. When he ran at the 8.5 and 9f in his last two races, not only were the early calls highly pedestrian, but he caved late. Now we move to 10f and that is all that needs to be said.

Luxor Cafe

American Pharoah - Mary's Follies (More Than Ready)

DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 1.17 ANZ = 8.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.79   Triads = 13-13-16

TYPE TWO

Honestly, these configurations are horrific for the Kentucky Derby. Any other normal Derby year where we find at least 5 or 6 colts built in the proper manner for this specific race, Luxor Cafe would have been tossed faster than lightening. But since we only have one this year, other factors must come to account for every horse. We can only go by Racing Post figures as comparisons, and this guy pulled a 118 and a 119 in his last two races. The only horse on this field that beats that figure at the same distance is Journalism from the Santa Anita Derby at 121. So he is on par with the favorite. The other factor that Luxor is holding is a killer chart which does not translate into his configurations and his high amount of experience and success competing against full fields of 10 to 16 competitors - which is something that the favorite can not boast. The huge problem now comes with the post position and that put a major kink into this beast's advantage. Most would be thrilled with post 7, but Luxor does not run within the crowd, he is a monster on the far outside. It all depends on how Moreira navigates his horse to the right across 13 competitors while they are all charging to the left for position. For some silly reason, I still think he succeeds with that mission. Next problem is if the configurations ultimately do come into play with this overseas guy. Out of the bunch, it would probably have the most affect against an overseas invader, as he already has a few disadvantages against the home crew. The fact that he is holding Miswaki alleviates some of that doubt and I'm personally willing to spend the extra by spreading him. Truth be told, I am a sucker for overseas runners and have been burned over and over again, but why break the streak now? If I didn't use him, he'd win. That is called superstition at its finest.

Sovereignty

Into Mischief - Crowned (Bernardini)

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-22-16

TYPE TWO

This is another very nice horse who would not have been given Superfecta status with a mare scale leaning in the wrong direction, but since we have only one set of perfect numbers, he comes to life here. What is so great about his past performance sheet is not so much the beyers but the comments. In every single race this horse has had, he has consistently surged and gained without skipping a beat. The imperfection found in his mares speed/stamina scale does not match his running style or his ability to unleash that speed late. He appears to be running through these numbers. Could be the 16.4% linebreeding to St. Simon which aids a great deal, matching only Rodriquez coming from the Into Mischief group. Bernardini is a contributing factor as well. With a nice clean trip, there should be no reason to fear that Sovereignty wouldn't be surging late yet again. Must use.

Publisher

American Pharoah - Indian Pride (Proud Citizen)

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 9-2-4-10-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.20   Triads = 15-16-17

TYPE TWO

Publisher may not have the speediest of beyers, but the horse consistently upgrades his position in every race he has run. With 7 unsuccessful races under his belt, his best performance coming at the furthest distance he was entered in. This could simply be a sign of maturity but then the reality sets in. The horse is packing a 4.33/5.67 index, where he should have been flying in those first four maiden races, especially the 8.5f sloppy race - but the beyers were horrendous for his build. He flashed some speed mid-race in the Arkansas Derby but then it tanked. He could be on the up-swing at this point but the Derby may not be the best race to test it in. The only factor that I see in his favor is the sloppy track. He has performed quite well on it in the past.

Tiztastic

Tiz the Law - Keesha (Tapit)

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 10-5-3-6-5   Speed = 15   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.47   Triads = 18-14-14 (Tapit 2X)

TYPE TWO

This horse will be the death of me. His chart is unprecedented in the Kentucky Derby. Face value, he could almost be the second colt on this list who is packing a great set-up. Major speed with the 4.00/6.00 indexes with TWO shots of Tapit which translates to major stamina. He runs from the rear which points to favoring the stamina through Tapit but it is truly a complete crapshoot to be 100% confident in how it all shakes out. In the LA Derby, John Hancock set that race up perfectly for him but that is not to say that he would not get that same advantageous set-up in the Derby. That could easily happen. One thing that stands out from that race is how Rosario maneuvered this horse with absolute perfection and Tiztastic responded to every shift. Rosario rode that horse like a champ and he could easily do it again on Saturday. If you like Sovereignty, then you must like Tiztastic as well. The balance of scales and the styles are very similar and one of them could easily get the perfect trip to come running late, while one may not. An easy trip in the Kentucky Derby is never ever guaranteed.

Coal Battle

Coal Front - Wolfblade (Midshipman)

DP = 1-7-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.80

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-5-5   Speed = 15   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.42   Triads = 19-16-14

They should save this horse for the Preakness or, better yet, the Pennsylvania Derby. His inheritance, especially coming from the 16th gate, is not conducive to this race in the least.

American Promise

Justify - Tapella (Tapit)

DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.71     ANZ = 3.50

Mare Profile = 10-2-6-5-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-13-19 (2nd gen Tapit)

TYPE TWO

I'm going to start from scratch on this guy - spent more time and went back to the beginning. From Pool Three back in January...

"First generation Justify and Second generation Tapit Boy who excelled on a muddy track at 8.5f. Nice hit of Mare early speed with those dominant 10 points in the brilliant category. Beginning to come into his own with killer performance in his last race. A very good prospect moving forward as distances lengthen. Beautiful combination in his chart." I gave him 4 stars back then so there was obviously potential lurking around with his chart. After that analysis was posted, then came the Southwest Stakes and he was quite a disappointment. Then came the Risen Star with yet another disappointment. After 5 straight failing maiden attempts, one sloppy track maiden win, and two failed preps, he's entered in the debut prep, the VA Derby. He runs the race of his life and breaks the track record. It certainly seemed plausible that the overwhelming speed bias of the day and the actions of two jockeys had a helping hand there. The horse completely changed in that one race, reverting back to that sloppy/sealed win from his final maiden. Looking at it further, the 2 times that American Promise ran successfully to his configurations and with proper beyer figures came on fast slick tracks - the muddy/sealed track in his maiden and then the insanely fast track on VA Derby day. Putting these 2 successful races along with his failures into perspective now, it was the favorable biases that aligned with his speed slant. He most likely will get a very favorable bias again at Churchill Downs, but it will be extremely important in his case to make sure that is truly the case with that track on May 3rd. If the track is catering to speed (as it usually is on that day) or if it is wet, American Promise will relish that bias and would then deserve major attention. Now I am much happier with this analysis. It took awhile, but now he makes sense. He is definitely highly influenced by his mare profile and Justify, but important to remember that influence does not negate being a descendent of Tapit, who has yet to produce a Derby winner. Main take-away, if its raining and he gets a good break, he becomes a win contender.

Grande

Curlin - Journey Home (War Front)

DP = 6-10-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 5-6-1-9-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.65   Triads = 12-16-18

SCRATCHED

What is standing out about this horse is that his full inheritance was extremely advantaged for the Aqueduct track and he performed right on point in the Wood Memorial. The fact that he won both of his first races on the Gulfstream track, a bias which is not to his advantage, gives us the evidence that this guy is fully accepting his massive speed figures in his chefs profiles, as well as accepting the massive stamina inheritance from his mares bloodlines. That spells close to perfection for the Derby. The next very positive item is that Grande is a multi-style runner. Successful stalking the pace and very successful traveling from way back in the rear. This gives Johnny V an upper-hand to be able to roll with the punches from anywhere on that track. Pletcher got a very nice post draw with #10 and should Grande continue on his upward swing off of his very commendable 2nd place in the Wood, he would be right there with the best of them. He has Johnny V which is a very good positive as well. The only knock is that he's a Repole horse and that part is cringe-worthy but other than that, the horse looks very promising here. He is worth every dollar spent in the superfecta.

Journalism

Curlin - Mopotism (Uncle Mo)

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.57

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18

TYPE TWO

I feel the exact same way about Journalism as I do with Sovereignty. Any other year, I would have bit the bullet and tossed this horse from consideration, not only because of the moderate configurations but the silly small fields that he faced to get here. I strongly believe that his best performance of all of his races came as a 2 year old when he broke his maiden against a field of 10. There is at least some evidence that he can handle a field of competitors. The other up-side is the post that he received. Gate 8 with his style of running is really a gift to his connections, as long as he is not infringed on right out of the gate. The workout at Santa Anita on 4/19 in :47 was almost a huge red flag but they came back with a much more reasonable work at Churchill on the 27th at 1:01.40, which is more in character to his style. Based on his ultimate odds, I'll spread him completely across the board and hope for an upset that knocks him down a few pegs. That is the gambler speaking, not the handicapper.

Owen Almighty

Speightstown - Tempers Rising (Bayern)

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 4.33

Mare Profile = 6-4-8-5-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-17-18

This is a nice quiet horse who never really did anything wrong along the way, but his front running style coming out of Post 20 without the massive backing of stamina in his mare's scale is not operating correctly for this race.

Sandman

Tapit - Distorted Music (Distorted Humor)

DP = 6-15-13-2-0 (36) DI = 3.24   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 3.24

Mare Profile = 8-5-1-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-13-16 (Tapit)

TYPE ONE and TYPE TWO

We have to go back 12 years to find a horse who tackled the Arkansas/Kentucky Double. That was American Pharoah who accomplished that feat. What Sandman is holding to his advantage are those 36 total profile points which aids his quest for a board hit. Realistically, his beyers aren't the most thrilling, but he has worked that toteboard consistently in the 8.5 - 9f races and his stamina should still be fine for 10f, as long as he gets a clean trip. Post 17 may see to it that he remains unscathed but he will be running much further than 10f, thats for sure. The 3.24 index does not help in that regard but he needs it to offset Tapit, so it becomes a 50-50 either way. What looks promising though is the opportunity to excel on a wet track with those 36 points. It's usually a very good signal.

Exact 3.00 Group

East Avenue

Medaglia d'Oro - Dance Music (Ghostzapper)

DP = 5-9-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 13-3-2-5-6   Speed = 16   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.63   Triads = 18-10-13

That mare line is simply atrocious for the Kentucky Derby. Looking for anything that could possibly override it just keeps coming up short. The .71 CD helps, but then it is completely attacked by the mares 1.63 index. That is staggeringly high for this race. The chefs profile is actually quite nice but then the mares profile obliterates it with that "over-dominating" 13 in the brilliant slot. It's just not plausible for the 10f, as we have known since before his maiden. There has been nothing of significance to change that.

Rodriguez

Authentic - Cayala (Cherokee Run)

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-5-8-12-2   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 17-25-22

SCRATCHED

I absolutely adore these configurations amongst this field. They completely stand out above them all - but that does not mean he is a definite lock to win this race. Yes, he is built like a brick house for this race BUT there have been plenty of colts who have entered this specific race in the past with even better numbers and barely hit the top ten. He must get the trip of a lifetime, just like all the others. He is not immune to a bad break or a bump or getting steadied just like all the others even with these configurations. Look at Dornoch from last year. Killer set-up for the Derby and broke bad. He only managed 10th place. Comes back at 10f again in the Belmont at Saratoga, breaks perfectly, and smokes them all. It's all in the trip with these well bred horses. Rodriguez is built properly for the distance and the spring Churchill bias. He has displayed massive speed on the Aqueduct bias, which gives full evidence of his adherence to his numbers. He demolished his competitors going only 8f on the bias of Santa Anita in his maiden, producing evidence of his adherence to his speed inheritance. He has traveled and performed outside of the West Coast. His workout at Churchill Downs matches his work on the Santa Anita track. These are all positives, but the most positive is that his performance skyrocketed when he was able to travel at a distance that coincides much better with his breeding. This guy is not a speed demon who would be able to beat up on real speedsters at 8.5f and under. He is much more locked into his stamina which gives him a huge edge traveling 10f up closer to the pace. The key with this horse as it relates to his breeding is that he CAN NOT get caught up with the lead tier speed. He needs to run a race like Epicenter did, sitting just off the pace and his breeding will carry him to the finish line.

Flying Mohawk 

Karakontie - Bonbons Fleur (Twirling Candy)

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 5-4-5-9-7   Speed = 9   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.68   Triads = 14-18-21

TYPE ONE

I'm going to be honest here, I absolutely love horses built like this. Pure killer stamina horses with exceptional configurations that leave zero doubt concerning the raw ability to tackle the distance with his eyes closed. The Animal Kingdom type. This guy excelled in his speed when he was taken off turf and put on AWS. Just like Animal Kingdom. Looking back at the entire history of his workouts, he far excels with his speed when he trains on dirt than when he trains on turf. Most would look at his sire, Karakontie, who was a turf runner, but it is important to note that Karakontie was basically a sprinter on turf. Proficient at 8f, which is speed dominant. Twirling Candy also produces turf runners, but his sire, Candy Ride, produced some of the best dirt runners of the past 2 decades - so you never know. The main thing is that this horse can run this distance without breaking a sweat. He will continue to pass retreating horses with an extreme pace. He will plow through deep and yielding mud while the speed guys lose all of their endurance sooner than later. He may not be an obvious choice among this crew, but he has alot of upside under certain conditions. He'll stay put for the time being and we'll see how that track is playing on Derby day.

2.10 to 2.90 Mid-range Group

Chunk of Gold 

Preservationist - Play For Gold (Cairo Prince)

DP = 1-3-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.33

Mare Profile = 9-2-6-7-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.13   Triads = 17-15-18

An entire pack of cigarettes and 4 more horses to go. Now is where I just lay it out raw. This horse has yet to ever step foot on the dirt of Churchill Downs. Every workout since last year has been on AWS. In his 2 dirt races, while he successfully took home his 2nd place trophy, he flew early and downgraded late. That track record coming out of the 19th gate with the caliber of closers in this race isn't cutting it for me.

Final Gambit

Not This Time - Pachinko (Tapit)

DP = 2-7-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.46 ANZ = 2.73

Mare Profile = 6-9-2-9-4   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 17-20-15 (2nd gen Tapit)

TYPE ONE and TYPE TWO

A 2.20 index horse with Tapit in his 2nd generation is usually taboo for this race. These types of configurations do not work because the horse is usually too stamina dominant and the Derby demands a balance with the speed. But... Enter Not This Time. This sire has been consistently handing off killer speed which adds a whole other dimension to this colt. He has the highest late speed on this entire list at 112 from his last race. It came on the AWS which could mean that if Not This Time has any type of real influence, that number could explode. He is built for distance and will relish the 10f. Post 3 could offer him an unscathed trip along the rail but he would either need to find the holy grail with a seam like Rich Strike, or he will need to circle the field. It is fortunate that he would have the stamina to do so if need be. I think he comes flying late.

Render Judgment

Blame - Barbara Gordon (Commissioner)

DP = 4-3-10-1-0 (18) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.56 ANZ = 2.67

Mare Profile = 6-7-3-7-10   Speed = 13   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.73   Triads = 16-17-20

TYPE TWO - possibly

This horse started out with his first 2 races as a 2 year old flashing some speed which partnered very nicely against his stamina leaning configurations. He appeared to have some potential with how he was running against how he is built. Unfortunately, he was inconsistent with it as a 3 year old. Somehow, he went from reserving his speed to the complete opposite and blowing right through it too early. It appears that once he finds his position (which is all over the place depending on what day it is) he remains in that position and doesn't go forward or even backwards. He just stays there. Zero determination. That style is not going to work in the Derby.

Baeza

McKinzie - Puca (Big Brown)

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00

Mare Profile = 9-6-2-9-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.13   Triads = 17-17-17

TYPE TWO (borderline Type ONE)

I'll make this quick and to the point. Since he's the only one who is a late comer to this list, he will analyzed through the lens of the rain. He hits it on the mark for the Type Two - sloppy slick and fast sealed tracks. Forward runner, 2.00 index, half decent triads, balanced scale. Shot of the Ribot/Flower Bowl connection on top. He is borderline for Type One - deep harsh mud. Can't go wrong with an offspring of Puca, that's for sure. Runs like his brother Dornoch, winner of the 10f Belmont stakes. Stamina like Mage, winner of the 10f Derby. Lead tier, fast runner, outshining that 2.00 index just like Dornoch, like a champ. This is a very nice horse that should have your attention on the off track. I'll take the kin of Dornoch if I can't have Rodriguez this year on a fast sloppy track. If the mud is thick and heavy, I'll still keep him but will attach him to a couple of other well-built horses.

UNDER 2.00 Stamina Group

Admire Daytona

Drefong - Ice Pastel (Shackleford)

DP = 2-2-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 6-4-3-9-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.86   Triads = 13-16-17

TYPE TWO - possibly

There wouldn't be a chance in hell that I would leave this horse off of any of my superfectas. He is the only horse sitting in the stamina category. He has the 10f distance. He has readable determination. But what stands out here is how the chefs index goes from a 1.86 all the way up to a 3.00 when adding in the prominent non-chefs. He is balanced through his chefs alone and his mares are 4 points to the good in stamina. His post compliments both of his styles (he is a multi-style runner) and just like Luxor, he has plenty of experience with 16 horse fields. Just like all the rest, he isn't built perfectly but he has some qualities that are highly lacking in many others. Because of Luxor's post position, I now see these two as equals for the race and will bet accordingly. Both of the Japanese contenders are high quality who bring something special this year.

I won't be configuring my tickets until Derby Day, as changes are inevitable over the week and weather will also play a huge part.

With the off-track, players now change. The old list is out. The new one will come. Please refer to the Muddy Article that was just recently posted. Scratches and new horses to the field need to be worked on thoroughly.