Mud Runners, Scratches, Bias, and Advantages Now.
- May 2
- 14 min read
Updated: Jun 17
This article may not be copied, reproduced, translated, or paraphrased, in whole or in part without consent. 5/2/2025 LDM
FOLLOW ALONG FOR BIAS ANALYSIS OF EACH RACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
Posted at the Bottom of the article.
There are 2 types of muddy surfaces. Each of these types will cater to different animals. In addition, winning a slick sloppy race at 8f at Oaklawn has no bearing at attempting a win at 10f on a deeper muddy track, a messy track or a sloppy sealed track at Churchill. Those two races would NEVER be won by the same horse.
Two types of Mud with two different advantaged types.
We may not have any horses entered who are built for the Traditional Kentucky Derby but now we have horses who are built for the muddy track.
I cannot overstate this point enough: There are 2 types of muddy tracks. A certain type of build and running style will find advantage on a specific type of muddy bias, not necessarily both. Reread that sentence again and then again.
TYPE ONE:
Deep sticky harsh muddy mess, still pouring. Caters to stamina. Speed tanks. Midpack and Rear runners advantage for win. Honestly, I highly doubt we will see this type of mud, but we can't assume and will post analysis of each race throughout the day below.
It is of major importance to understand that just because a horse happens to run from the rear, it does not mean that he now automatically finds advantage. He won't. He must be BUILT properly to withstand the punishment and the type of endurance it takes to tackle the 10f running through a sticky harsh surface. Additionally, High chef total points are ALWAYS EXCELLENT on a sloppy track. ALWAYS.
Example: 2019 Kentucky Derby (I do not recognize a drug-induced horse, Maximum Security.)
(First Call position is recognized after his name)
1st COUNRTY HOUSE 9th DI = 2.69 CD = 0.67 Speed = 10 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.53 Triads = 12-18-21 perfect
2nd CODE of HONOR 10th DI = 0.76 CD = 0.00 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-25-20 perfect
3rd TACITUS 15th 6-14-11-1-0 32 chefs points plus Tapit Stamina perfect
4th IMPROBABLE 8th 12-9-13-0-0 34 chefs points plus Mares Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-17-18 perfect
Every one of them lean heavily to stamina. 6 to 9 points spread leaning to stamina through mares. Triads ascend heavily to stamina or High chef total points. SPEED HORSES TANK! They do not have the endurance to withstand running through quicksand.
Notice that there are no board-hitters who were in positions 1 through 7 at the first call, they are nowhere to be found.
Each one of those horses who hit the superfecta were holding 12f Belmont Stakes numbers. That is what it takes to run through quicksand.
2025 Contenders who are built for Type One - deep and unrelenting mud:
Update: This is not the type of mud we are seeing today.
SANDMAN 6-15-13-2-0 36 chefs points plus Tapit Stamina excellent.
FLYING MOHAWK DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.68 Triads = 14-18-21 perfect
FINAL GAMBIT DI = 2.20 CD = 0.46 plus Tapit Stamina Absolute perfection
RENDER JUDGEMENT DI = 2.00 CD = 0.56 Speed = 13 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.73 Triads = 16-17-20 (cusp)
If the track has harsh deep mud and the race results on the undercard establish a pattern of speed dying on the front end, the first 3 horses on this list are BUILT CORRECTLY FOR THAT TYPE OF SURFACE. Render Judgment could find advantage but the confidence level is not as strong. Highly doubt that we will have Type One Mud.
TYPE TWO:
Wet Messy Slick Mud or Sloppy Sealed. Both of these surfaces cater to the same type of horse.
The mud is not too deep but still messy and wet. Speed excels with proper stamina. Lead Tier runners advantage for win. Rear runners take advantage of retreating horses who are not built correctly on the lead for bottom spots. If on the lead tier, the horse usually has a speedier index with the proper 10f mare stamina but it needs to be heightened. If it isn't, the horse will eventually tank and the rear guys will come calling. Rear guys still could have speedier indexes, but they must still have the proper stamina.
Speed is always advantaged in the Derby, unless we have the type of mud that is listed above. The horse MUST be equipped with Mare stamina underneath that speed or PACKED triads, or PACKED chef profiles or he won't make it in this race.
This type of surface still stays true historically with speedier chefs and stamina dominant mares, usually producing 3 speed horses and one stamina horse filling out the super. This year, we do not have one horse who is perfectly on point, so we just need to look deeper to find him.
This type of mud is not as harsh as the quicksand up above but it is a tad harsher than the 3rd type (sloppy sealed).
First call is recognized.
Example 1: 2018 Kentucky Derby (Messy sloppy, still raining) Still need serious stamina to go along with speed.
1st JUSTIFY 2nd DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Triads = 17-15-19 slightly off but proper
2nd GOOD MAGIC 4th DI = 3.40 CD = 0.82 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Triads = 13-19-20 MISWAKI FACTOR, PERFECT
3rd AUDIBLE 12th DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 Triads = 22-23-19 perfect
4th INSTILLED REGARD 17th DI = 1.59 CD = 0.32 Triads = 17-17-21 perfect. Highest stamina on the field
On a wet/Sealed Fast track, the horses do not need as much stamina to counteract. Speed horses glide easier and faster, usually gaining extra lengths in the process. Mare balance still should be somewhat heftier on the stamina side. They don't need "Belmont-type" amounts of stamina, but they do need figures going in the right direction. Again, high chef total points will always be advantaged on a clean track, harsh mud or sloppy fast track.
Example 2: 2017 Kentucky Derby (Wet Fast Sealed, rain subsided) Speed excels here with proper Derby balance.
1st ALWAYS DREAMING 2nd DI = 5.00 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Triads = 14-18-16 triads not perfect, scale correct
2nd LOOKIN AT LEE 17th DI = 3.40 CD = 0.77 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Triads = 16-18-19 perfect
3rd BATTLE of MIDWAY 3rd DI = 2.83 DP = 10-14-17-2-1 (44) CD = 0.68 44 TOTAL CHEFS POINTS Perfection
4th CLASSIC EMPIRE 13th DI = 5.00 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Triads = 16-19-20 Killer Numbers, wrong jockey
Notice that in both scenarios, 3 speed horses and one stamina horse hits the board. That happens over and over again.
Both of these types of "Rainy day" tracks will cater to basically the same type of build, so there is no need to differentiate the players. The only difference is that the horse does not need to be so heavily stacked in stamina on a wet sealed track but that really makes no difference this year. None of them are built like Rodriguez in the first place!
Type Two Mud is a bit harder to handicap because we still need to consider both the speed category and the stamina category.
2025 Contenders who are built for Type Two - Sloppy or Wet Sealed Track:
Update: This is the type of mud we are seeing today. Winner should be among this list - chopping the field in half.
LUXOR CAFE DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 Mares: Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 MISWAKI FACTOR, mare scale correct
JOURNALISM DI = 3.57 CD = 0.81 Mares: Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Position a plus, wet sealed better.
TIZTASTIC DI = 4.00 CD = 0.70 Double shot of Tapit - Excellent
AMERICAN PROMISE DI = 3.67 CD = 0.71 Second Generation Tapit perfect
ADMIRE DAYTONA DI = 1.86 ANZ = 3.00 Speed - 10 Stamina - 14 - Nice Stamina horse who rises to speed thru ANZ
PUBLISHER DI = 4.33 ANZ = 5.67 Speed - 11 Stamina - 13 - Speedy figures balanced correctly.
SANDMAN DI = 3.24 CD = 0.69 36 Total chefs points plus Tapit Factor perfect
CITIZEN BULL DI = 9.00 CD = 1.00 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 18-26-18 - good
SOVEREIGNTY DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.05 Triads = 18-22-16 - slightly off
The three colts listed up top under Type One mud could easily still take advantage of an extreme pace and coming running on that Type Two mud bias.
If the race results come in throughout the day and speed is holding on the lead tier (regardless of distance), then we can rest assured of having a Type Two bias. Then I will look into all of the top 4 finishers and bottom horses with their build to find the correlation to those results. The pattern and the answers will appear. I love when that happens!
The disheartening part brings me back to Rodriguez. I bring this up to reiterate why he was so perfect for the Derby, no matter the bias, in order for you to understand why he was chosen and what to look for in the future when I'm not around. He had every bias covered. Fast clean track, harsh mud and sloppy sealed. All of it.
RODRIGUEZ DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 17-25-22 EXCEPTIONAL
12f Belmont Stakes configurations which would have covered the muddy bias found in Type One.
Front Running speed horse with killer stamina that would have covered the wet messy track due to perfect mare balance.
Front runner with speed and proper alignment for the sloppy sealed bias.
Perfect Derby numbers for a fast clean track. All of it covered. He was the only one.
The irony of it all, he gets scratched out of the perfect race for him and instead of holding him out for the 10f Belmont at Saratoga, where he would have found that killer advantage again, they announce that he's headed to the 9.5f Preakness where his advantage falls and others rise. Just another day in the bizarro world of Horse Racing.
I will keep this list updated as I work through it during the next 2 days. I still need more time. I promise!
Scratches.
RODRIGUEZ
He was scratched for "a small but sensitive foot bruise."
GRANDE
Vet scratch. Cracked Heel.
SATURDAY MAY 3rd - DIRT RACE RESULTS and ANALYSIS OF SLOPPY BIAS
RACE 1 - 8.5f MAIDEN - GATE TO WIRE WIN ON THE RAIL High Speedy 4.00 index prevails.
24.16 48.40 1:13.00 1:43.34 slow
Fountain Lake Julien Leparoux
DP = 6-6-8-0-0 (20) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.90 ANZ = 4.50 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-11-17
Chillax Jr. Alvarado
DP = 6-10-14-0-0 (30) DI = 3.29 CD = 0.73 ANZ = 3.29 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.72 Triads = 11-9-15
Sansone Joel Rosario
DP = 0-0-0-0-0 (0) DI = Inf CD = Inf ANZ = Inf Speed = 9 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.14 Triads = 16-14-18
Cromwell Jose Ortiz
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 ANZ = 3.00 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.86 Triads = 15-8-17
Outlook: Written like a script for Type Two Mud. Winner goes gate to wire on the rail, Second place finisher sits in the top tier throughout the race. Both high index speed horses and Chillax holding 30 chef profile points. Race one should have Baffert extremely happy. On the rail, gate to wire, slowing down the pace and prevailing. We'll see how the bias progresses but race one is right on target. In normal fashion, 3 speed horses hit the super. Onward!
RACE 2 - FILLIES - 8f AOC 80k - LAST TO FIRST with BAD BREAK High Speedy 4.14 Index Prevails.
22.37 45.23 1:10.67 1:24.05 1:37.42 very fast, leads disintegrated.
Lemon Muffin Nik Juarez
DP = 6-5-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.94 ANZ = 4.50 Speed = 15 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-17-17
Generous Lover Jose Ortiz
DP = 8-4-8-2-0 (22) DI = 2.67 CD = 0.82 ANZ = 2.67 Speed = 16 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-17-18
Tapit Quick Brian Hernandez
DP = 2-7-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.60 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-17-18
Normandy Queen Flavien Prat
DP = 3-8-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.78 ANZ = 6.43 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-14-17
Outlook: Even though the fillies generally do not follow suit with configurations, it still hit right on the money. This race was much faster than the first and the lead disintegrated, we'll need to keep an eye on that. Three speedy high indexes hit the super again so we'll see how that continues. Type Two mud is holding strong.
Race 3 - 8.5f AOC 125k - BASICALLY GATE TO WIRE ON THE RAIL - Lead runner with Lowest index on the field prevails
23.63 47.15 1:11.36 1:36.28 1:42.83 took over lead before the 1/4 pole. Normal fast pace.
Goal Oriented Flavian Prat - Baffert
DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20 ANZ = 2.11 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.29 Triads = 18-28-17
Hypnus B Hernandez
DI = Inf CD = Inf (No chefs, Into Mischief son) Speed = 13 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.50 Triads = 19-22-15
Tiz Secure J Hernandez
DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 Speed = 10 ANZ = 1.67 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.14 Triads = 15-12-16
Valentinian J Velasquez
DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88 (Into Mischief son) ANZ = 5.67 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.09 Triads = 19-21-18
Outlook: Loving the results of this particular race as it relates to the Derby. Great example of the dynamics as it relates to the horses listed above who are built for this Type Two Mud. The winner, Goal Oriented, happens to have the lowest chef index on the field (stamina category) however, he happens to run on the lead. That is always a very favorable way of running for a horse built like that. This horse is in the same mold as ADMIRE DAYTONA and that is why he was part of the advantaged list on that type of mud. Speed on the lead with stamina to burn. In addition to that, there is Tiz Secure who has a 3.00 chef index (speed) that moves to a 1.67 ANZ (stamina) which shows the balance in the chefs, another like Admire Daytona. Yet again, we have 3 speed horses and one stamina horse for super. Two Into Mischiefs with their speedy inheritance and killer triads. This race, again, ran like the perfect script. So far, lead near the rail, with the proper Type Two configurations continue. Be back soon.
Race 4 - 8f - Knicks Go Overnight Stakes MID-PACK with Extreme pace - 15.00 Speed horse with killer stamina wins
22.42 45.20 1:10.04 1:22.57 1:35.25 - Extreme Fast Pace, Lead tier dies.
Liberal Arts Luis Saez
DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00 CD = 1.00 ANZ = 19.00 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.69 Triads = 14-19-20
Patriot Spirit Jr. Alverado
DP = 2-7-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.61 2nd generation Tapit
Kapuna Brian Hernandez
DP = 5-6-15-0-0 (26) DI = 2.47 ANZ = 2.47 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.78 Triads = 12-15-18
Inveigled Ben Curtis
DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.97 Triads = 19-10-20
Outlook: I gotta say that I am loving this so much. Everything that we talk about at the DHC concerning these numbers over the years is being revealed in real time and its so freakin great. Im loving every second of it. Again, the perfect Type Two Mud configurations Prevail and fairly close to the 3 speed and 1 stamina hitting the super. This race was run with an extreme lead pace, He tanked. He was built well too, but he went way too fast. Set it up for a mid pack runner with killer numbers. Citizen Bull should take heed and let East Avenue out on that lead to burn himself out while he sits idly by. Same with American Promise, Daytona, Luxor, etc. So far, this is the dream for handicapping and perfection with the numbers on a Type Two bias but Im not going to get cocky. The rains could return and snap this bias in two. But, so far, so good.
Race 5 - TURF
Race 6 8f PAT DAY MILE - Gate to Wire on the Rail won by a 5.67 horse - perfect type 2 configurations on the lead.
22.43 44.93 1:09.66 1:22.27 1:35.65
Macho Music Catellano
DI = 5.67 CD = 0.85 ANZ = 5.67 Speed = 12 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-16-17
Madeket Road Irad Ortiz
DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 1.00 Triads = 17-8-19
Gaming Johnny V
DP = 6-2-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 1.00 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 15-11-18
Gate to Wire Prat - Type One
DP = 2-3-6-1-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 1.89 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.86 Triads = 16-15-19
Outlook: Winner was right on point with configurations and style. Madeket Road and Gaming, also proper. 4th place runner, Gate to Wire, ridden by Prat was NOT configured properly for Type Two Mud - he was configured properly for Type One Mud. Not out of the ordinary for that to happen, the race was run at an extreme pace and it could happen. So far, only one real stamina guy snuck into the bottom of the super out of 6 races so far. Thats a great record so far. Still everything is on target for the horses listed in the article for Type Two.
Race 7 - TURF
Race 8 - 7f Churchill Downs Stakes - All four built like Champs for the 7f Type Two Mud
22.56 45.12 1:09.67 45.12 1:09.67 1:22.64 Fast
Mindframe Irad Ortiz
DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.21 Triads = 17-19-16 perfect for distance
Banishing Jose Ortiz
DP = 5-9-14-0-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.68 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.83 Triads = 13-16-18 exceptional
Nysos Flavien Prat
DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80 Speed = 11 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.10 Triads = 15-12-15 mares somewhat off
Book'em Danno Paco Lopez
DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 18-17-17
Outlook: These numbers are spectacularly on point today and I am really hoping no storms roll through and mess this up. This race is very interesting and very telling. This one is a bit different in that it is only 7f. Of course, the higher speedy indexes still work for this distance, even more so since its so short. The difference is that the horses would not benefit from severe stamina from the mares. Again, its only 7f. Two things stand out with the results - all 4, all holding speedy indexes, all 4 at the wire at the same time, all 4 built perfectly for the parameters of this race. The second thing is that understanding how this bias is playing in alliance with how these horses are built, I saved a ton of money by not betting on one of my favorites, Extra Anejo. His connections should have scratched him as he was not built for the distance on a muddy track in the least.
Extra Anejo DP = 1-2-6-5-0 (14) DI = 0.75 CD = -0.07 Triads = 19-26-20. His build was so against the bias and it doesn't matter if the colt is a beast or not, it doesn't matter how fast he ran in the past, all that matters is how he is built for the race at hand. Unless we get severe storms and something crazy happens to turn off the perfect read on this bias today, Im almost ready to put together my tickets. Im very high on the Japanese horses for the 10f on this bias. All of them listed up top in the article have an advantage - now they need the trip.
Overall Outlook on the current bias heading into the Derby - The horses listed in the article under TYPE TWO are all extremely advantaged on this bias. The key is twofold. One, a suicidal pace will knock these advantaged "speed-driven" colts off of their advantage. They are all built for the bias, but that does not automatically allow them to now run berserk on the lead. A fast normal Derby pace and they would retain their upper-hand. But, the pace is not going to appear until that bell goes off. That is the unknown. The high speed indexes backed with exceptional stamina is necessary for the 10f, which will be the longest race of the day. So, while some of the horses who hit the superfecta on the undercard were not holding massive stamina, they were also traveling a much shorter distance. Take that into consideration as you configure your tickets. And that's a wrap on handicapping this race. Good luck to all.
104 BSF for Sovereignty
102 for Journalism and Baeza
The double qualifiers of final fractions came through. Below is the list I posted a couple of days ago.
I tossed Flying Mohawk and boxed the remaining 6 for a $180 Superfecta ticket.
Final Gambit
Rodriquez - Scratched
Sovereignty
Flying Mohawk
Grande - Scratched. Substituted Baeza
Journalism
Tiztastic
Luxor Cafe
Straight win bet on Owen Almighty, hoped against hope the surface and race trouble for others would get his nose across first. For once I have no gripes. Thanks Lisa and everyone for the insight, I'll remember next year.
Same replay every single freakin year for me. I missed it by one. I always miss it by one.
I used Sovereignty Journalism and Luxor straight across the board.
Overused Admire Daytona in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots. wasted money!
Threw in several in the 3rd and 4th - including Final Gambit, Tiztastic, Publisher, AP, Sandman
Then in the 4th spot only, I added Baeza and Bull. I didnt have Baeza in the 3rd spot. Just the 4th.
Baeza killed me.
I just want to Thank Lisa and everyone else on here. I thought Good Cheer was as close to a lock as you could get in horse racing and as a result I am alive in the Oaks/Derby Double for good $$ and the Oaks/Turf/Derby triple with 5 different horses. If Admire Daytona happens to win I will smile big even though I like Luxor a little better and I was all over Rodriguez ( as soon as I saw the rain yesterday I bet 3 different doubles with the 1 ( which I didn’t like at all) the 5 ( which I only liked if wet) and the 6 (only because of this site!)
Good Luck to all and…