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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2022 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile


There is a magical thing when it comes to dosage. It reveals what type of breeding that excels at certain races and what type does not. The Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile is one of those races. This pattern does not differentiate itself from the different tracks either. It is the same straight across the board, from Kentucky to California for this specific race.


It may surprise most to know that high speed, historically, does not win this 8f race. I'm not talking about displayed speed on the track. It's about high speed in the inheritance.


Liam's Map is the only horse who won this race outside of the "rules" - however, Liam's Map was holding a very large 38 total chef points, so the exception gets a pass, and we move on. He can't be considered within the whole.


15 editions of the Dirt Mile including all tracks (Liam's Map aside)

Winners with an index of 3.01 and over - 0%

Winners at 3.00 exact - 13%

Winners Under 3.00 (Midrange and top of stamina) - 87%

3.00 and under has a 100% win rate in the Dirt Mile, regardless of track.


Chef's CD above .72 - 0%

Chef's CD below .72 - 100%


Colts with High Inbred Speed DO NOT win this race.


Right off the bat, when considering the TOP SPOT of this year's edition, over half the field can be disregarded. They may hit the board, but to win it outright is not looking promising for them. They would be the first to crack that perfect historical pattern. The rules don't get broken too often and none of them are sporting a high chef points total like Liam's Map.


 

Winner Highly Unlikely to come from this Group:


Pipeline DP = 6-8-8-0-0 (22) DI = 4.50 CD = 0.91

Laurel River DP = 2-4-2-0-0 (8) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00

Cody's Wish DP = 5-8-9-0-0 (22) DI = 3.89 CD = 0.82

Informative DP = 3-6-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 CD = 0.86

Senor Buscador DP = 9-8-13-0-0 (30) DI = 3.62 CD = 0.87

Three Technique DP = 4-10-10-0-0 (24) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75


WINNER HAS BEST PROBABILITY OF COMING FROM THIS GROUP:


Slow Down Andy DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Simplification DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

Gunite DP = 0-3-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.21

Cyberknife DP = 0-2-6-0-0 (8) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.25

Law Professor DP = 1-6-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.67 (50/50 here)


Last Update due to bias - Previous Keeneland Race Makes Gunite a Player on top:


Superfecta: $16.00 for every $1.00 ticket

1st - Cyberknife, Gunite

2nd - Cyberknife, Gunite, Cody's Wish

3rd - Cyberknife, Gunite, Cody's Wish, Simplification

4th - Cyberknife, Gunite, Cody's Wish, Simplification, Law Professor


and


Super Boxed: $24.00 for every $1.00 ticket

Cyberknife, Codys Wish, Simplification, Gunite


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