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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2021 Kentucky Derby Prep Winners - Prep Season


Sept. 5, 2020 IROQUOIS STAKES - 1 mile - CHURCHILL DOWNS - Clear/Fast

SITTIN ON GO Results Chart

Chefs DP = 2-0-16-0-0 (18) DI = 1.25   CD = 0.22

Mares DP = 6-5-3-4-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.74   Triads = 14-12-17

St. Simon: 0.00% Top Influence linebreeds to Giant's Causeway → Hail to Reason → Plucky Liege

Rating for Derby: ++

The mares five digit profile is configured extremely well, but his triads are lacking a great deal. He runs just like his sire, Brody's Cause, and just like his father, he will ultimately rely on the lead speed failing at the given distance. He had some luck in this race with that, however, his maiden was much more impressive. Running only 5f and beating out his 7 opponents at that distance is quite a feat. His combined optimum distance is an incredible 11.4f and winning that 5f race is astonishing. He's two for two at the moment and he is most definitely grabbing that speed directly from the mares in his chart. For the Derby, he has the distance sewn up, however, he will need to rely on 19 other horses not being able to complete the 10f, which will never happen. His triads are simply not good enough and the percentage leading to St. Simon from his top influences is non-existent. If this horse happens to change his running style before the Derby, maybe we can revisit but he is running directly in line with his numbers so that style probably will not change. He will be competitive in his preps when the young speedsters start to crack, but those triads will not help him in the Kentucky Derby.


Sept 26, 2010 - American Pharoah Stakes - Santa Anita - 1 1/16th - Clear Fast

GET HER NUMBER Results Chart

Chefs DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.80

Mare DP = 9-4-7-5-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 20-16-20

St. Simon: 25.0% Top Influence linebreeds to Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon

Rating for Derby: ++

The numbers are fairly stagnant across both lines and the triads are 2/3rds good. The mares CD falls at .03 and when combined with the chefs, leaves Get Her Number with an optimum of 9.2f. The glaring split in the triads will water down one side or the other, and by the looks of it, it would appear at this early stage that the watering down will be coming from the speed side. This means that he will probably gain a bit in distance, maybe up to 9.6f. Still short. The second place finisher in this race, Rombauer, will thrive as the distances progress.


Sept 26th - The Royal Lodge - New Market - 8f


Chefs DP = 1-5-6-8-0 (20) DI = 0.82   CD = -0.05

Mares DP = 5-6-2-11-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 19   Index = 0.62   Triads = 13-19-21

St. Simon: 13.28% Top Influence linebreeds to Northern Dancer → St. Simon

Rating for the Derby: +++

A short field of 5. He beat two Galileo colts on turf which is quite a feat. Too early to know if there are plans to transition to dirt. We will know that answer if eventually entered in the UAE Derby. Most likely to be seen next in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf if willing to take the trip.


Sept. 27, 2020 JUDDMONTE BERESFORD - 8f - Curragh (Turf)


DP = 5-2-21-14-0 (42) DI = 0.71   CD = -0.05

Mare Profile = 5-7-3-9-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.77   Triads = 15-19-19

St. Simon: 49.9%

Rating for the Derby: +++++

Wow! This is a serious horse. Galileo son and full brother to Innisfree. Loaded Chef's Profile. Stamina dominate top and bottom. Killer Triads. 50% linebreeding to St. Simon. Trained by Aiden O'Brien. There is love all over this guy. His style mimics his numbers exactly. Ran this race like a Champ on turf. If this horse translates to dirt, he will be a star. As of right now, his race will be the Derby - the Epsom Derby, however, if Aiden gets him prepared for dirt, there is no stopping this guy. His breeding is impeccable. Five star all around.


Oct. 3, 2020 BREEDERS FUTURITY - 8.5f - Keeneland - Clear/Fast


DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-2-12   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 17-7-16

St. Simon: Top Influence linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ++

Taking a stand here. This is a Tapit colt with a 3.00 index. He will not have luck in the Kentucky Derby. He will have a huge advantage in the Belmont Stakes. This does not mean that the horse will not do well in the Derby Preps leading up to the big day. He will. But he is built for the Belmont, not the Derby. His major saving grace is the high 32 points in his profile which will keep him as a player for now until the field is assembled. Since he is a Tapit colt, he has the distance, so the main factor will be in determining if any other "Speed" contenders in that gate have the 10f distance to compete against him. UPDATED REVIEW AFTER SOUTHWEST STAKES BELOW.


Oct. 4, 2020 - Prix Jean Luc Lagardere - about 7f - Longchamp - Turf


DP = 2-1-10-7-0 (20) DI = 0.67   CD = -0.10

Mare Profile = 3-8-3-9-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.65   Triads = 14-20-19

St. Simon: Top Influence linebreeds to Blushing Away → Nasrullah

Rating for the Derby: ++

The breeding overseas is exceptional and this colt is holding Galileo in his 2nd generation as well. Impeccable stamina breeding but unlike High Definition, who won the Juddmonte, it does not appear that this breeding would easily translate to dirt.


Oct 10, 2020 - Champagne Stakes - Belmont Park - 8f - clear/fast


DP = 4-10-8-0-0 (22) DI = 4.50   CD = 0.82

Mares Profile = 8-6-2-5-9   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-13-16

St. Simon = 25%

Rating for Derby: ++

This horse is 4 for 4, racking up his wins so far at 5f, 6f, 7f, 8f. Because of that .82 CD, he will get up to 9.5f and he will never see a winning finish line at 10f. The 10 in his Intermediate slot shows the dominance from his chefs (7,8,9f) and the mares take him to a top point of 9.5f. He would need a hurricane on Derby Day to gain extra distance for a board hit, and even then it might actually need to be a monsoon. Basically, he has the balance of a horse like Always Dreaming, one who capitalized off of the weather and luck.


October 24, 2020 - VERTEM FUTURITY TROPHY - Doncaster


DP = 1-0-11-10-0 (22) DI = 0.42   CD = -0.36

Mare Profile = 4-7-1-10-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 20   Index = 0.52   Triads = 12-18-21

St. Simon = 60.54%

Rating for the Derby: ++ (he's a turf guy)

Gorgeous numbers. Serious percentage to St. Simon. Stamina Stamina Stamina. This guy has an optimum distance of 13.1f. He is a major Hotshot that would be surprising if they transferred him to dirt.


November 6, 2020 - BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE - Keeneland - 1mi 1/16th


DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-2-12   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 17-7-16

St. Simon: Top Influence linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ++

Nice horse. Sticking with the same from his win in the Breeders Futurity. Tapit colts with 3.00 and under indexes do not do well in the Derby. Again, that 32 points total in the chefs profile will need to be revisited come Derby time. Highly depends on the cast of speed characters remaining. Distance is there. UPDATED REVIEW AFTER SOUTHWEST STAKES BELOW.


November 28, 2020 - KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB - Churchill Downs - 1mi 1/16th


DP = 0-2-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.33

Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.18 Triads = 15-8-14

Rating for the Derby: ++

Mixed signals with this set-up. The chefs have a wonderful .33 low CD (nice stamina) on top of dominant speed from the mares configurations. Opposite the norm but fine none the less. So the balance is there, however, the chefs are very minimal (only 6 points) which means that the mares may take over and water down that chef stamina. The other knock is that the mares speed/stamina balance is negative and the triads lack a great deal for the Derby. On the surface the combination works when they are blended together but the deficiencies in the mares set-up is counter to what wins in the Derby.


November 28, 2020 - CATTLEYA SHO - Tokyo Japan - 1600m (about 1mi)

LEMON POP (JPN) Blog Article

DP = 7-2-25-4-0 (38) DI = 1.30 CD = 0.32

Mare Profile = 6-8-3-9-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 17-20-19

St Simon: 21.88% (Top 2 directly to St. Simon: Northern Dancer and Natalma)

Rating for the Derby: +++++

Kentucky Bred. Son of Lemon Drop Kid who won the Belmont Stakes and the Travers Stakes. Grandson of two Chefs Kingmambo (CS) and Giants Causeway (C). These are the credentials and the numbers of a champion. Drenched in stamina, with the speed to win his maiden at 6.5f and the Cattleyo Sho at a mile. A breathtaking 38 points in his loaded Chef profile with packed triads. It doesn't get much better than that!! Automatic love with top notch potential. Can he follow in Le Vent Se Leve's shoes? Looks like he is well on his way.


December 5th, 2020 - THE REMSEN - Aqueduct - 1m 1/8th - Sloppy


DP = 3-4-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-7-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.81 Triads = 16-18-19

St Simon: 35.15% (Top 4 directly to St. Simon: Northern Dancer, Nearctic, Nearco, Storm Bird)

Rating for the Derby: +++

Three wins out of four so far. Son of Wicked Strong. Half descent numbers. Bottom of the speed spectrum with ascending triads are competitive in the Derby, but they are not the most powerful. Somewhat under-par but can hold his own at 10f. Eventually, he will become part of the top competitors because of his numbers but most likely will fall short for a win against what is to come. The second place finisher, Ten for Ten, showed nice standout qualities on that sloppy track to hold on for second with his breeding. In his defeat on that bias, Ten for Ten deserves the radar a bit more at this stage in the game - board hit Derby material.


December 16th - ZEN NIPPON - Kawasaki - about 8f


DP = 2-1-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.25

Mare Profile = 5-4-8-6-2 Speed = 9 Stamina = 8 Index = 1.22 Triads = 17-18-16

Rating for the Derby: +

Perfect example of speed and hype vs the 10f Derby. This guy is 5 for 5, racking up wins at 8f and under. With a 7.00 chef index, which depicts 7 times the amount of speed over stamina coupled with his mare's 1.22 index, his trainers would be wise to point to the Breeders Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile as opposed to eyeing Churchill in May. The horse has no shot there.



SPIELBERG Results Chart - 1m 1/16th - Clear fast

DP = 7-6-12-1-0 (26) DI = 2.71 CD = 0.73

Mare Profile = 7-6-2-9-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-17-18

St Simon: Top linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +++

Competitive to a degree against speed in the short earlier maiden attempts against his speedier opponents. Lost badly when he had the advantage at 7f. Came back to win this prep going longer by the skin of his teeth against a Nyquist colt. Presented nice determination but the win was fairly unimpressive with his advantaged standing in that particular gate. The numbers are so-so, with more advantage as the distances go a bit further. Struggled between a 2 rating and a 3 rating, settling for the latter based on the Baffert factor. Mares numbers are stagnant and under that 2.71 chef index, he will really need to lean on that Baffert magic to make noise in the Derby. Not biting.


December 20th - SPRINGBOARD MILE

SENOR BUSCADOR Results Chart - 8f - Clear Fast

DP = 9-8-13-0-0 (30) DI = 3.62 CD = 0.87

Mare Profile = 7-6-2-6-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.79 Triads = 15-14-18

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby - +++

The set-up from his chefs is spot-on. He inherited very nice high speed points in the Brilliant and Intermediate slots and dominant in the Classic distance with a good CD sitting next to that higher echelon 3.62 index. The mares brilliant slot is high which indicates a nice thrust of additional speed but his Stamina numbers are 3 points higher, which shifts his endurance factor further. This horse is 2 for 2 running from last to first in both which contradicts his numbers to an extent. His numbers are pretty filled up on the short early brilliant side but he chooses to run late as opposed to bolting from the gate and running quick early on. His mares index on the low side as well, and even though the triads are under par and not quite as stacked as we would prefer, they do lean to extended distances none-the less. The horse is running to his stamina side which is excellent with regards to the Derby distance. He is reserving that wicked speed for late in the race. There is something to be said about that. His linebreeding goes directly to Teddy, with St. Simon underneath that - preferably the other way around but this is what he has inherited. The horse is fast, very fast and he has the breeding numbers that gives him that edge. The fact that he prefers the rear makes him extremely intriguing. This guy may not have the perfect set of triads, but something about him is definitely worth a watch. Winners of the Springboard Mile are generally not note-worthy for the Derby, but it appears that this guy, who is running to his own beat, and running extremely well late in the race, deserves a bit of attention moving forward.


January 1st, 2021 - JEROME STAKES

CAPO KANE Results Chart - 8f - Cloudy Muddy

DP = 4-2-10-2-0 (18) DI = 1.57 CD = 0.44

Mare Profile = 6-6-3-14-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.91 Triads = 15-23-20

St. Simon: 14.06% through Northern Dancer

Rating for the Derby: +++++

Yes. Yes. Yes. The first day of 2021 and we finally get the first 5 star rated USA contender of the season. Capo Kane is holding every high quality attribute for a serious stamina colt for the Derby. Son of Street Sense, won two of three OUT ON THE LEAD - wire to wire - holding his 1.57 chef index and his beautiful mare triads leaning all the way over to the stamina side. Packed and loaded stamina numbers with a 5 point spread in that mare balance. The triads don't get much better than that for a stamina colt. He is also holding Ribot and Flower Bowl in his 5th generation which is an added bonus. With 2 wins and 1 second, this guy is well on his way with that perfect running style. He will have an automatic clear advantage in the Derby. The Jerome Stakes was run on a muddy track, which means that the weather will not be a factor for this stamina boy. Beating speed way under his optimum, which is 10.3f. He's holding a Derby Royal Flush regardless of Beyer or Timeform figures going forward. This one is a player. Excellent prospect for Futures Pools. We are all over this guy!


January 2nd - SHAM STAKES

LIFE IS GOOD Results Chart - 8f - Cloudy Fast

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-8-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.13 Triads = 19-19-18

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

Rating for the Derby: I'll leave this one blank

The all too familiar configurations and running style of yet another Baffert clone, this time sprinting on the lead against a pitiful field of 4 foes at one mile. Why even bother with this unremarkable race? Try to imagine replacing Baffert's Life is Good in that race with the likes of Gun Runner or Shared Belief or Classic Empire? They'd win by 10+ lengths. Race aside, this Into Mischief son has basically the same set-up and balance of horses like Authentic, Covfefe, Dayoutoftheoffice, Practical Joke, Gamine, and Audible. He also shares the same type of configurations with about 100 other Into Mischief sons who had the same inbred speed and stamina balance and did not compete on the same level. All at the same 3.00 bottom of the speed spectrum, minimal chef influence, with more influential overloaded mare triads leaning to speed. There isn't much to say other than he either gravitates to horses like Authentic and runs "through" his mares inheritance or like Audible and grabs his piece of glory in the 10f mud or he gravitates to one like Practical Joke and just misses. The configurations are shy of 10f but this horse has Baffert, so take your pick. Baffert's second place finisher in this race, Medina Spirit, deserves more attention.


January 16th, 2021 - LECOMTE STAKES

MIDNIGHT BOURBON Results Chart - 8.5f - Clear Fast

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 6-4-7-4-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 8 Index = 1.21 Triads = 17-15-15

St. Simon: 41.01%

Rating for the Derby: ++

The St. Simon factor is incredible but the mares numbers are completely backwards for the Derby. His combined optimum distance is 9.25 so the Derby Preps are his for the taking but he falls way too short for the 10f of the Derby. The St. Simon Factor adds some intrigue for a promising career ahead but the bottom line is not favorable for the first Saturday in May. Second place finisher in this race, Proxy, has much more in his tank.


January 23, 2021 - SMARTY JONES STAKES

CADDO RIVER Results Chart - 8f - Clear Fast

DP = 4-6-14-0-0 (24) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 7-3-4-8-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 14-15-18

St. Simon: 28.91%

Rating for the Derby: +++

Fantastic performance in this race but up against only one real competitor, Cowan, who had to steady hard but came back to try to compete. This is the type of breeding that truly needs to be monitored along the trail to see if he can hold on consistently with standout performances. He is holding the type of stamina that outweighs his speed and by the looks of his 4 races, all at 7f and 8f so far, he appears to be on course of keeping that standout title. His combined optimum is 10.2f and his style of running is perfect. His triads are under par but so were Maxfield's, who holds basically the same balance and configurations. Maxfield REMAINED a standout from day one and even though Maxfield went undefeated (and still does) Caddo hitting exacta spots is still quite an accomplishment with this balance. He is very good, but definitely the type who needs to be held on ice until everything shakes out in April. He's on his way and, most likely, I see an upgrade in rating in his future. Between the 10.2f, the style, and now his confidence in full swing, he appears to have all the potential in the world with his 2.43 index. Nice St. Simon percentage, good 4 point spread, low mare index and very good chef CD.


January 30, 2021 - HOLY BULL STAKES

GREATEST HONOUR Results Chart - 8.5f - Cloudy Fast

DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 8-6-0-8-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.92 Triads = 14-14-16

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +++

This guy was built perfectly for this race and he performed directly in line with it. He is in the same boat as many previous 3.00 Tapit sons as it pertains the Derby. They usually bend to the Tapit stamina factor with ample speed to compete along the way. They generally find no luck in the Derby and then they shine in the Belmont. They do not cater to their mares and allow the Tapit stamina to dominate. Depending a great deal on who is entered in the speed category will determine if stamina dominant contenders find the upper hand. At this point, Tapit is everywhere and most all sit in the same boat. The tell-tale sign with Greatest Honour, as far as his preferred speed/stamina balance with Tapit at the helm, is that it took him 4 tries to tag a win up against speed in a couple of shorter races and the style that he prefers to run. This screams that he is favoring that Tapit stamina and will have zero problem with the 10f Derby distance. His fate in that race depends on the lead speed entered and how much stamina they are packing to sustain. In the Belmont, there would be no question here.


January 30, 2021 - ROBERT B. LEWIS

MEDINA SPIRIT Results Chart - 8.5f - Clear Good

DP = 3-6-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-8-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.81 Triads = 15-17-19

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ++++

Enter yet another Baffert clone oblivious to his breeding. Nothing in these numbers depict a lead speedster but he's a Baffert guy so it makes no difference. Face value, his ability to bolt for the lead, along with his stamina configurations on top puts him in a good spot. Baffert aside and "trying" to treat him like every other 2.20 colt, he will need to continue to show fantastic consistency in competing against his speedier foes and winning these shorter preps out front. He has the stamina to continue further. At this point, with his style and his resume, he is well on his way. But being another clone in Bafferts barn, one never knows if it is all based on the merits of a potential monster or based on feed and patches that will eventually take its toll. Coincidence or talent? Hoping its the latter but the reoccurrences are nonstop.


February 6th, 2021 - WITHERS STAKES

RISK TAKING Results Chart - 8.5f - Clear Fast

DP = 6-8-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 10-3-4-5-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.08 Triads = 17-12-17

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Damascus → Phalaris

Rating for the Derby: ++

The area that stands out is the 10 point dominance in the brilliant slot of mares profile. Great speed number with ample stamina for this 8.5f prep. Disastrous for the 10f Derby. Linebreeding directly to Damascus is exciting and nice but does nothing for the quintessential advantage that St. Simon bestows. Triads look harsh for the Derby. Optimum distance sits at 9.4f.


February 6th, 2021 - SAM F. DAVIS

CANDY MAN ROCKET Results Chart - 1mi 1/16th - Cloudy Fast

DP = 6-3-6-1-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 5-3-5-4-11 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.58 Triads = 13-12-20

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Teddy → Bend Or. St. Simon second.

Rating for the Derby: +++++

Secondary St. Simon aside, his chefs index is extremely deceiving once you add in his mare's overwhelming stamina influence. His mares have given him a NEGATIVE .46 CD, which is magnificent. From the mares alone, this CD translates to an incredible 12.7f inheritance potential. It is obvious by the setup that his mares will be a dominating fixture and when combined together, Candy Man Rocket is sitting with a capacity for 11.1f at a minimum. He has Belmont stamina with that advantageous 3.00 chef index (right on target). Think Vino Rosso capacity but with even more advantage in all 3 races. There is no doubt that this guy will continue to blossom as each race offers him more track. He is utilizing both of his configurations perfectly as shown in his stalking preference. Winning his short 6f second maiden attempt is adding to that strong speed potential. Five star. Excellent. He has the numbers and the style to see an advantage in each of the three Triple Crown races. This guy is a live one.


February 13, 2021 - EL CAMINO REAL DERBY

ROMBAUER Results Chart - 9f on AWS - Cloudy Fast

DP = 2-1-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 4-3-6-8-8 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.57 Triads = 13-17-22

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy. Second is to St. Simon

Rating for the Derby: ++++

Everything about this horse is screaming "Animal Kingdom Revisited" with the exception of the St. Simon factor. Unbeatable stamina on the top and bottom with the ability to perform on AWS, Turf and Dirt. This horse will continue to thrive as each distance progresses throughout his campaign. Top notch stamina credentials with the ability to display killer reserved speed late in his race. A huge stamina player for the 10f of the Derby who will need either an exaggerated quick first quarter and/or speedy competitors who lack in sufficient mare stamina out on the lead. Because he will need to rely on those 2 factors, he receives a 4 star rating as opposed to a 5 star, although his numbers are 5 star none-the-less. He will find success on a clean fast surface. A definite keeper.


February 26th, 2021 - JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL

HUSH OF A STORM Results Chart - 8.5f - AWS - Showery Fast

DP = 2-3-13-0-0 (18) DI = 1.77 CD = 0.39

Mare Profile = 9-4-4-5-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-13-18

St. Simon: 43.56%

Rating for the Derby: ++

Out of thirteen entries on the field for this prep, Hush of a Storm was the ONLY colt sitting in the "Stamina Category" - and as it usually goes, every graded stakes race will be a clash between speed vs stamina. In this case stamina prevailed. Having the advantage on AWS and being the only horse with a stamina chef index and also running undefeated at Turfway, this guy was a gift to all gamblers in this particular race. With his .39 CD from his chefs, he gets to an optimum distance of 10.4f when combined with his mares. Running directly in line with his numbers, this guy had a great advantage on that AWS and he sat with no peer in the gate. Sometimes these types will translate (Animal Kingdom) and sometimes they won't. He certainly has the distance and he is sitting with a major percentage in the linebreeding to St. Simon, but since the tracks between Turfway and Churchill differ so much, all eyes must be on him as he moves away from this track. He connects incredibly well at Turfway, but since he bombed his maiden on the Churchill surface, that transition does not appear promising. Several speed types who grabbed their piece here appear better suited for Churchill.


February 27, 2021 - SOUTHWEST STAKES

ESSENTIAL QUALITY Results Chart - 8.5f - Cloudy - Sloppy

DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-2-12   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 17-7-16

St. Simon: Top Influence linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +++++

His rating jumps from a 2 to a 5 after this prep. Several reasons why and it revolves around his performance on the sloppy track. This horse is now undefeated on both bias'. He is holding a 3.00 index with Tapit Stamina. Contrary to how this configuration has fared (negatively) in the past in the Derby vs positively in the Belmont, this guy is beginning to look like the exception to the rule and it is sitting squarely upon those 32 chefs total points. He won his short quick 6f maiden at Churchill against a full field of 12. Ticked off two consecutive Grade One wins at 8.5f with another full field of 14 in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. With all of that Tapit stamina, he proceeds to demolish the field in this prep on a sloppy track. Speed wins on a sloppy track which is against the argument of too much Tapit stamina that suffers on Derby Day. That is pointing directly to those 32 points which hands the speed advantage back to him for the Derby. Conquering that sloppy track in the manner that he did is proving that his Tapit stamina is not over-riding his speed advantage which has so frequently done in the past. He retains the advantage in the Derby with his ability to conquer the distance and he has proven that his speed cannot be compromised based on those 32 points. This sloppy wet win flips everything in his favor for the Derby based on his numbers in conjunction with his performances. This guy is a power-house and he is a major player for the Derby. Presented with this sloppy track to judge the effects of his overwhelming Tapit stamina against his speed reveals that Tapit is not defeating his speed, he is enhancing it. The weather in this race was a gift for handicappers because it revealed that his 32 chef points will not compromise the needed speed to compete in the Derby, rain or shine. This is major going forward and it puts this guy directly in the drivers seat over most every potential starter on the Trail. Major Speed + Major Stamina = Derby Winner. Essential Quality has revealed with this race on the sloppy surface that he is utilizing both. If you look at the mares profile - split evenly on the two extremes (12 points in both the Brilliant and Professional slots) with 32 total points from his chefs tripled with Tapit stamina and producing concrete evidence on a sloppy track - shows that Essential Quality is the real deal. These qualities will be extremely hard to beat in all three Triple Crown races and on any bias. We now have the proof.



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