2020-2021 Derby Prep Winners



High Definition (Ire) - Overseas Monster

CLICK HERE FOR REPLAYS OF EACH PREP RACE

Sept. 5, 2020 IROQUOIS STAKES - 1 mile - CHURCHILL DOWNS - Clear/Fast

SITTIN ON GO Results Chart

Chefs DP = 2-0-16-0-0 (18) DI = 1.25   CD = 0.22

Mares DP = 6-5-3-4-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.74   Triads = 14-12-17

St. Simon: 0.00% Top Influence linebreeds to Giant's Causeway → Hail to Reason → Plucky Liege

Rating for Derby: ++

The mares five digit profile is configured extremely well, but his triads are lacking a great deal. He runs just like his sire, Brody's Cause, and just like his father, he will ultimately rely on the lead speed failing at the given distance. He had some luck in this race with that, however, his maiden was much more impressive. Running only 5f and beating out his 7 opponents at that distance is quite a feat. His combined optimum distance is an incredible 11.4f and winning that 5f race is astonishing. He's two for two at the moment and he is most definitely grabbing that speed directly from the mares in his chart. For the Derby, he has the distance sewn up, however, he will need to rely on 19 other horses not being able to complete the 10f, which will never happen. His triads are simply not good enough and the percentage leading to St. Simon from his top influences is non-existent. If this horse happens to change his running style before the Derby, maybe we can revisit but he is running directly in line with his numbers so that style probably will not change. He will be competitive in his preps when the young speedsters start to crack, but those triads will not help him in the Kentucky Derby.

Sept. 26, 2020 AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES - 1 -1/16th - Santa Anita - Clear/Fast

GET HER NUMBER Results Chart

Chefs DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.80

Mare DP = 9-4-7-5-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 20-16-20

St. Simon: 25.0% Top Influence linebreeds to Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon

Rating for Derby: ++

The numbers are fairly stagnant across both lines and the triads are 2/3rds good. The mares CD falls at .03 and when combined with the chefs, leaves Get Her Number with an optimum of 9.2f. The glaring split in the triads will water down one side or the other, and by the looks of it, it would appear at this early stage that the watering down will be coming from the speed side. This means that he will probably gain a bit in distance, maybe up to 9.6f. Still short. The second place finisher in this race, Rombauer, will thrive as the distances progress.

Sept. 26, 2020 THE ROYAL LODGE - 8f - Newmarket (Turf)

NEW MANDATE (IRE)

Chefs DP = 1-5-6-8-0 (20) DI = 0.82   CD = -0.05

Mares DP = 5-6-2-11-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 19   Index = 0.62   Triads = 13-19-21

St. Simon: 13.28% Top Influence linebreeds to Northern Dancer → St. Simon

Rating for the Derby: +++

A short field of 5. He beat two Galileo colts on turf which is quite a feat. Too early to know if there are plans to transition to dirt. We will know that answer if eventually entered in the UAE Derby. Most likely to be seen next in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf if willing to take the trip.

Sept. 27, 2020 JUDDMONTE BERESFORD - 8f - Curragh (Turf)

HIGH DEFINITION (IRE)

DP = 5-2-21-14-0 (42) DI = 0.71   CD = -0.05

Mare Profile = 5-7-3-9-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.77   Triads = 15-19-19

St. Simon: 49.9%

Rating for the Derby: +++++

Wow! This is a serious horse. Galileo son and full brother to Innisfree. Loaded Chef's Profile. Stamina dominate top and bottom. Killer Triads. 50% linebreeding to St. Simon. Trained by Aiden O'Brien. There is love all over this guy. His style mimics his numbers exactly. Ran this race like a Champ on turf. If this horse translates to dirt, he will be a star. As of right now, his race will be the Derby - the Epsom Derby, however, if Aiden gets him prepared for dirt, there is no stopping this guy. His breeding is impeccable. Five star all around.

Oct. 3, 2020 BREEDERS FUTURITY - 8.5f - Keeneland - Clear/Fast

ESSENTIAL QUALITY Results Chart

DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-2-12   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 17-7-16

St. Simon: Top Influence linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +

Taking a stand here. This is a Tapit colt with a 3.00 index. He will not have luck in the Kentucky Derby. He will have a huge advantage in the Belmont Stakes. This does not mean that the horse will not do well in the Derby Preps leading up to the big day. He will. But he is built for the Belmont, not the Derby.

Oct. 4, 2020 - Prix Jean Luc Lagardere - about 7f - Longchamp - Turf

SEALIWAY (FR)

DP = 2-1-10-7-0 (20) DI = 0.67   CD = -0.10

Mare Profile = 3-8-3-9-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.65   Triads = 14-20-19

St. Simon: Top Influence linebreeds to Blushing Away → Nasrullah

Rating for the Derby: ++

The breeding overseas is exceptional and this colt is holding Galileo in his 2nd generation as well. Impeccable stamina breeding but unlike High Definition, who won the Juddmonte, it does not appear that this breeding would easily translate to dirt.

Oct 10, 2020 - Champagne Stakes - Belmont Park - 8f - clear/fast

JACKIE'S WARRIOR Results Chart

DP = 4-10-8-0-0 (22) DI = 4.50   CD = 0.82

Mares Profile = 8-6-2-5-9   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-13-16

St. Simon = 25%

Rating for Derby: ++

This horse is 4 for 4, racking up his wins so far at 5f, 6f, 7f, 8f. Because of that .82 CD, he will get up to 9.5f and he will never see a winning finish line at 10f. The 10 in his Intermediate slot shows the dominance from his chefs (7,8,9f) and the mares take him to a top point of 9.5f. He would need a hurricane on Derby Day to gain extra distance for a board hit, and even then it might actually need to be a monsoon. Basically, he has the balance of a horse like Always Dreaming, one who capitalized off of the weather and luck.

October 24, 2020 - VERTEM FUTURITY TROPHY - Doncaster

MAC SWINEY

DP = 1-0-11-10-0 (22) DI = 0.42   CD = -0.36

Mare Profile = 4-7-1-10-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 20   Index = 0.52   Triads = 12-18-21

St. Simon = 60.54%

Rating for the Derby: ++ (he's a turf guy)

Gorgeous numbers. Serious percentage to St. Simon. Stamina Stamina Stamina. This guy has an optimum distance of 13.1f. He is a major Hotshot that would be surprising if they transferred him to dirt.

November 6, 2020 - BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE - Keeneland - 1mi 1/16th

ESSENTIAL QUALITY Results Chart

DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-2-12   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 17-7-16

St. Simon: Top Influence linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +

Nice horse. Sticking with the same from his win in the Breeders Futurity. Tapit colts with 3.00 and under indexes do not do well in the Derby.

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