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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2021 Breeders Cup Juvenile Analysis

Listed highest inbred CHEF SPEED down to highest inbred Chef Stamina.

The highly important mares are taken into separate account.

8.00 - Jasper Great

DP = 4-15-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60 CD = 0.96

Mare Profile = 4-6-4-10-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.82 Triads = 14-20-18

I am not sure if they are shipping him over but this Arrogate son is packing sensational numbers for this race. He has the chef speed for the DelMar bias and he has ample mare stamina for the distance. For me, this guy will be my first of two longshot “MUST USE” for the race. There wouldn’t be a chance in hell that I would ever pass up these configurations in the Juvenile. A four point spread in balance tilting to stamina with close to 9 times the inherited chef speed over stamina at DelMar at this distance is a dream set-up. How he ships from overseas is another matter altogether though so caution must be taken. I’m game to take the shot and will lock him in at the hip with my other longshot play going for gold. He will have his work cut-out for him against the configurations of Jack Christopher and Rattle N Roll in this speed category and also with the Baffert Potions with Corniche. But Jasper’s numbers deserve to be recognized for this race regardless of coming from overseas. He will relish the bias.

5.40 - Jack Christopher

Chefs: DP = 3-8-5-0-0 (16) DI = 5.40 CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 6-3-5-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.77 Triads = 14-17-20

YES. Yes. Yes. This set-up is excellent for the Juvenile and for the DelMar bias. With high tide over 7ft on the day of the race, his 5.40 chef index is perfectly aligned with the bias and that 7 point spread in the mare’s balance coupled with a .77 mare index is superb. These are winning configurations for this race, which means, Jack is a must use in the top spots of your superfecta and trifecta bets.

4.00 - Double Thunder

Chefs: DP = 4-8-8-0-0 (20) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 11-5-3-5-8 Speed = 16 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.25 Triads = 19-13-16

This horse has no shot in this race. The mare’s numbers say it all. Quick Toss.

4.00 - Rattle N Roll

Chefs: DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 7-2-2-10-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 11-14-20

On par with Jack Christopher just above him here and actually his configurations for the race even surpass Jack's to some extent. Perfect 4.00 speed on top of a 9 point spread leaning to serious mare stamina. The key here though is the styles of the two. Jack will stalk Corniche and if Corniche actually ran to his breeding, Jack would win this race easily. But the reliance on that happening is too far up in the air when it comes to a Baffert clone – so the second scenario will probably not happen either – which is, Jack and Corniche beating each other down where Rattle N Roll comes flying late to win. Highly unlikely, which leaves Rattle N Roll a player but most likely just under. His numbers are stellar for this race, his style on the other hand bumps him down a bit. There is always the possibility that they try to get him up closer to mid-pack in the early stages which then puts him right on target. It could play out the same way it did for New Year’s Day back in 2013 when Conquest Titan faltered on the lead with his horrible mare set-up. That is wishful thinking!

3.80 - American Sanctuary

DP = 6-8-10-0-0 (24) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 10-2-4-5-11 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.84 Triads = 16-11-20

The set-up is okay for the race but the fact that the horse is sporting a 3.80 chef index and is as slow as molasses, well, it seems that he cares not a bit about his numbers and is running to his own beat. Could be immaturity, however, this is the time when they should be relying on that chart, not by-passing it. Pass.

3.00 Tough To Tame

DP = 2-5-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.64

Mare Profile = 6-5-3-8-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.74 Triads = 14-16-19

His numbers are just fine for this race, but it is apparent that he is favoring the mare side over his chefs. The horse is way too slow and has exhibited no displayed speed to date. Up against this field, no chance. His time comes much further, but he still has a fair bit of work to go.

3.00 - Barossa

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 5-7-4-9-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.91 Triads = 16-20-18

This is the guy. Right here. Hoping he stays far from the limelight with Baffert’s other guy stealing all of the hype. Whoever owns this horse should immediately whisk him away from this barn and give him to any other trainer. He has Derby player written all over him and unfortunately, he will not be given the opportunity. This is the real star in the making for Baffert, not Corniche. Just like Medina Spirit, who played second fiddle to Baffert’s other clones early on in the season, same scenario here with Barossa. This is the longshot play of the race. He has doubled his talent capability with each race leading up to the Juvenile. He is only .01 off the sweet spot in the mares index. There is a glaring spotlight on that .50 low Chef CD which combined with Into Mischief in the early stages of their careers is exceptional. He is dominant in the Classic distance and only 1 point off in that 18 in the triads. Think Audible with even more chef stamina. He has incredible potential as an Into Mischief son and he could be sitting on his big breakout performance. His trajectory has climbed substantially and it will keep going up with each race. This is one longshot who should not be overlooked, however, if he doesn’t hit that board, it is not because he is not talented enough. It will be because this horse is actually better suited for 10f, however, it is quite plausible that Barossa will take yet another step forward and explode in this race. He has enough inheritance in him to do it and his style is extremely conducive to the DelMar track. With so much potential and ample stamina for the race, as both an upset longshot or potentially easy board hit, this is the very best shot on the entire field against the heavy hitters. I’ll take the shot and spread him.

2.60 - Commandperformance

Chefs: DP = 3-6-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.61

Mare Profile = 9-4-2-11-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 15-17-18

With Jack Christopher a scratch in this race, a revisit back to this guy is now a must. At the very least, Command was able to run close to the crazy speed of Jack in the Champagne and that must account for something. His numbers are not good for a win on this track, but he could hit the board now with Jack out. Consideration for In the Money spots is now a huge option based on that Champagne stakes performance vs his numbers. Jack posted the fastest Beyer speed figure as a 2 year old in 4 years time, which gives Commandperformance some credibility with his displayed speed vs his 2.60 index. The mares are at 1.04 which is saying that speed is coming directly from them. This is good for a shot at a board hit but it is counter to what wins this race. With Jack out, Command will now get a nod on my tickets.

2.64 - Oviatt Class

Chefs: DP = 2-7-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 6-3-2-4-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.65 Triads = 11-9-16

This is the type of 2.00+ colt who has the right configurations to be a player in the Belmont Stakes. He is definitely not the 7f to 8f type (like Whitmore). He has ample stamina for Breeders day obviously. He is, however, the type who favors that stamina which gives him the upper-hand in the Belmont but will make him struggle a great deal in most all of his races leading up to it. The inbred speed to compete at DelMar with the caliber of some of his well-bred foes in this race is just way too much. His time comes later.

2.33 - Corniche

Chefs: DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-6-11 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.97 Triads = 17-11-19

These numbers are NOT good for a win in this race – at all. The 2.33 chef index at DelMar for a 1-1/16th is bad. He has only a two point spread favoring stamina - par is three. His mare’s index is above .90 which gives him the third strike. The only two things he has going for him is his running style, which will be extremely favorable and that he is under the “spell” of Bob Baffert. Baffert’s clones do not run to their numbers, so those 3 strikes mean nothing in the whole scope of things. In any other barn, it would mean a quick toss, but as we all know, that is simply impossible. Whatever it is that allows Baffert’s clones to disregard their breeding apparently goes undetectable through testing. Baffert's playbook, as usual, is to take complete advantage of a speed favoring track on the lead wire to wire. He will do it again. The same song played over and over every day. Yes, Corniche won at the distance at Santa Anita, and he has more than enough to go this distance easily but that is not the Juvenile at DelMar. This race caters to high inbred speed and SERIOUS mare stamina. Two separate animals altogether (no pun intended) but again, it just doesn’t matter. It’s “Baffert Compensation Time” at the windows yet again. He must be used in the top spots even though he is built incorrectly for this race – but do not rely on him in any single spot just in case the racing gods intervene.

1.55 - Gunite

Chefs: DP = 0-3-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.21

Mare Profile = 6-4-5-6-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.72 Triads = 15-15-20

Here’s another who is packing a ton of stamina, both top and bottom which is what this race requires, however, the DelMar bias requires ample inheritance of speed as well. Gun Runner Boy with a stalking style is perfect for the Juvenile but his 1.55 chef index is historically backwards for this race on a whole for a win. There was only one who managed to pull it off. Texas Red, a longshot who capitalized off of all of the speed demons at Santa Anita that year. Not the case this year. He will have the second highest amount of inbred stamina on the field, so in that regard, he could capitalize, however, there are just too many advantaged speed guys with the proper high stamina who will be much more advantaged than him. Hard to overlook that stamina but it would appear that the high 7+ ft tide that day will cater to the others at a much higher degree. Not the worst idea to throw him in underneath. He will have enough to sustain the quick pace and he positions himself favorably for the bias. If Corniche runs to his numbers and not to his trainer’s potions, Gunite will still be running in the end.

1.40 - Pinehurst

Chefs: DP = 1-1-10-0-0 (12) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.25

Mare Profile = 3-8-5-12-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.83 Triads = 16-25-20

This guy is holding a serious amount of strategically placed stamina on the field, so looking at his displayed speed in his previous races is imperative in his case. This colt’s numbers are spectacular for Kentucky Derby consideration, which means he really needs scrutinizing for this race. He could be high caliber going forward with these configurations which would give him a slight upper hand in this stamina category. He is two for two, undefeated wire to wire. He will duel for that front which gives hope that there may be a contest for that lead so Corniche will have to work harder. This guy is going to want it as well and he is much more equipped to sustain than Corniche (based on chart, not Baffert). There is no comparison in the inbred stamina between the two. Pinehurst excels in that regard, but there is a major difference in displayed speed. If asked to push it to the limit early on, sometimes a colt bred like this will give in – the type who prefers a nice sustained easy pace in order to run as long as he wants. He will be asked to move faster early on. Does this affect him adversely and will he simply give in as so many stamina horses do when asked to run against their breeding early on. We will only know that answer after the race. The only thing here is that this guy could be a nice sneaky surprise among the bigshots for a piece of the pie.

1.36 - Giant Game

DP = 3-1-22-0-0 (26) DI = 1.36 CD = 0.27

Mare Profile = 6-6-2-7-9 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.74 Triads = 14-15-18

With three other stamina peers in the gate with a disadvantage along with only a 2 point spread in the mares, if one were to throw in a stamina guy onto their superfecta, it would be much better to look at Gunite and Pinehurst instead of here. His displayed speed leaves much to be desired. Hard pass and will revisit as the distances progress.

1.29 - Pappacap

Chefs: DP = 1-0-7-0-0 (8) DI = 1.29 CD = 0.25

Mare Profile = 7-3-4-5-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.84 Triads = 14-12-17

Another Gun Runner boy who will have a bit of disadvantage with that 1.29 index. Since he sits off the pace he will find greater ease with Jack Christopher out during the middle stages of the race. Figuring on Baffert's normal playbook, he will use Pinehurst and Corniche to secure his lead status and most likely will gear that pace down sooner than later. He can do this now with Jack out. This gives Pappacap a better shot at keeping up. His numbers say no for a shot at a win, but with Jack out, he now has a better shot at grabbing something, especially since he sits at the very bottom of this stamina category with his chefs numbers. He seems to be interchangeable with his half-brother now.

*With Jack out - Pappacap and Commandperformance's stock rises for board-hit consideration.

**With Jack Christopher now out of the race, the entire play needs a complete overhaul. With only hours to go before post time, I have updated Commandperformance and Pappacap. The entire race has been affected by this scratch.


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