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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2020 Kentucky Derby Analysis


3.10 and Over

15.00 - NY TRAFFIC

DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 5-4-5-7-5 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.86 Triads = 14-16-17

This guy is holding 15 times more speed inheritance than stamina from his chefs. In his first 4 races, all 6f and 7f, he never once wired the field and bombed 3 out of 4 of them. Extremely peculiar but the reason appears to be based on his mares. Even though his mares profile and numbers seem uninspiring, they do give him a mare CD of NEGATIVE .12 which in turn translates to 11.5f (mares only). As his distances progressed, he showed his liking and ability to sustain his speed way past that 15.00 chef index. The mare’s impact is very apparent based on his resume. When the CD’s are combined, this leaves NY Traffic with an optimum distance capability of 9.5f. That’s not too shabby for a horse carrying all of that chef speed. A sloppy track in May and we would have been all over this guy for a super spot – but it might not be a sloppy track and it certainly is not May. So we have to look at other factors. He has done well and he held his own on many different track bias’ which is a very good sign. He lost by just a nose against the highly regarded Authentic traveling 9f which culminated in his best race to date. He showed ample determination there. When you combine everything together, he does not appear to have enough to get to that wire easily but he does have enough to be in front of the stragglers behind. A low and underneath nod is reasonable on your super based on his determination and pace figures of his last race and the high amount of mare stamina getting him to 9.5f. If the second flight of horses is chaotic, he could have his nose out front in that tier. At the very least, NY Traffic is holding the highest amount of speed on the field and he is actually carrying more stamina than many below him in this speed category.



DP = 2-4-2-0-0 (8) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 5-7-7-7-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.00 Triads = 19-21-19

I would have felt much more comfortable with these numbers if the race were held in May, but now in September, and pitted against this particular field, his true 9f optimum may be exactly where he settles in his maturity. The dip down in the Classic slot of his chefs 5 digit profile is now off-putting. The even balance in his mares speed/stamina balance doesn’t do much to enhance the projection of his final winning prep, the Shared Belief stakes. After all, it was only an 8.5f race against 3 other opponents. Not the hardest test in the world to conquer in order to secure a gate in the prestigious Derby. If we move that finish line up even just 7 feet, Honor AP passes him with ease. We do have the Baffert factor but with the revelations and investigations that the trainer has had in recent months, I would think the guy is much too smart to step into it again so soon. Thousand Words had a great set-up with his numbers historically for a May race, but it has to change with the passing of months and maturity. With this final assembled field, his stock as fallen dramatically. He is now running on his own without the backing of total chef reliance which is exactly what happens in May and why the same setup and configurations in the numbers appear in top spots year after year. May is so different from September and overloaded triads that are a driving force of influence in a young and green colt will dissipate the older he gets and the more he becomes his own runner. There are many entered in this race that may find a greater presence in the Preakness and this guy may be one in a long list of them.


5.40 - Winning Impression

DP = 3-19-10-0-0 (32) DI = 5.40   CD = 0.78

Mare Profile = 5-3-4-10-5   Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.71   Triads = 12-17-19

It is awfully fitting that a Dallas Stewart colt is entered into the Derby with basically the same type of horse from the past - uninspiring resumes coupled with extremely inspiring dosage numbers. You can always count on Dallas to throw a huge wrench into the mix. His numbers are seriously intriguing. Chef speed coupled with overtly dominate mare stamina. This horse wants distance even though he appears to be pulling from both sides of his numbers. The 5.40 index gave him his advantage on a sloppy track, but his poor figures and running style is a direct result of the configurations of his mares inheritance. This horse is stuck in the middle due to the distances he has run. Because of those speed figures he appears to be favoring those mares a great deal. All stamina. He has the 10f easily but much slower than the other speed hotshots on the field. What he does have is the undeniable stamina to continue. Dallas Stewart has a way of getting his early sleepers and typical longshots in top form for a payoff in major stakes races time and time again. The only angle here is the Dallas Stewart factor coupled with the 10f distance. Is he worth throwing into the bottom of your super? That must be your call. The only thing I can say is that the horse will get faster the longer he goes, he can run on the far aside but he will be slower than the others who can also do the same. What they don't have, that he has, is Dallas.


4.33 - Tiz the Law

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14

A Grade One 10f Winner entered into the Kentucky Derby is the obvious Top Player and is of course the deserving favorite. His awful mare numbers mean nothing. Tapit is everything. Everyone knows he is the one to beat. There is no major insight or fancy handicapping necessary here by anyone. He is proven at the distance and he has an impeccable resume. You would need to be blind not to see that this horse has been dominate for the 2020 year since Nadal and Maxfield were knocked out. The odds will suck. Everyone knows this. The only chance at cashing is to back up your top spots with him and hope for the best. If you want to spend the money then spread him in the top 2 or 3 slots and go for gold with your best "upset guy(s)". It’s the only thing you can do. Keep in mind that his two most meaningful wins, the Belmont and the Travers, were both run on the slickest fastest tracks of the season. His other two wins, at Gulfstream, run on another notorious slick fast track. His maiden win also on the slick new dirt at Saratoga. The only loss was at Churchill, so there is always that. With Caracaro capitalizing so much on the bias at Saratoga, I can't say one way or another whether all of that additional distance was strictly bias oriented. This idea would of course affect Tiz the Law as well. This in no way negates Tiz as the leader of this field, but it does give some hope that the risk of spending extra money on an upset bet as opposed to saving money, singling him on top, and getting a cheap payoff. I can’t speak much more on the numbers that I haven’t already said. The bias at Churchill come September 5th is everything. CLICK HERE for more on the Tapit Factor and Tiz the Law from the May 26th article. It pays to re-read these things before placing bets. Isn't that right Brian??!!


3.57 - South Bend

DP = 2-7-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 7-2-2-8-8   Speed = 9   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.69   Triads = 11-12-18

This guy has a fantastic setup. He inherited 12.2f from his mares and when combined with his chefs, leaves him with the potential to go 10.75f. Remember, speed inheritance plus the distance equals player. Next, you have to look at what his past performances reveal as you project the additional distance. The main tell here is the fact that this guy made up ground on an extremely over the top and excessive speed bias in the Travers. It doesn't matter that he took home a 4th place, that fact holds no water for this race. The fact that he went forward while holding all of that mare stamina against the bias is exceptional. Yes, Max Player also made up ground and beat him BUT the major difference is the amount of stamina that South Bend is holding which was a major disadvantage the entire race. Max Player is not holding the type of stamina that South Bend is holding. The bias of any track will dictate which horse will find ease and which horse has to work extra hard against it. Stamina suffered all season at Saratoga. With that in mind, Tiz the Law is holding "diluted" Tapit stamina but his 4.33 index was spot on for that bias. If Churchill produces lead speed all day Friday do not fall for simply the optics of it. When figuring advantages on a bias, you must also determine what the particular horses are holding as far as their breeding. For instance, what if 5 races in a row were won by one of the top 3 or 4 lead guys (girls) in each race on Friday? And what if each one of those happened to be a stamina horse who happened to have that type of running style (like Money Moves). That would be the tell for the bias, not simply because it was front runners all day. Every piece has to be threaded together to come up with the true advantages. For this particular field, South bend will not be running in the very back among this huge field. His excellent post will put Gafflione in a more advantageous spot and if he can get this guy a bit closer to mid-pack, South Bend is going forward and his speed inheritance will get him much closer FASTER than those bigshots coming from behind. Money Moves will still be up front as well and the only thing that knocks Money Moves out of the way is if the class factor grabs him. The only other horse that I have continued to pit South Bend against is King Guillermo. There is something about these two that somehow hook up together in this field. Guillermo will be ahead of South Bend early. At just about the same time in the race, one slowly decreases and the other slowly increases and they meet up. Every time I move these horses around based on the breeding, style and distance, they end up even. Its hard to put into words. Now that Art Collector (a speed guy) is gone, we are left with Guillermo and South Bend as the two who have the 10f (South Bend with the edge) and position (Guillermo with the edge) - which leaves these two as equal competitors underneath. If you are keeping 7 or 8 colts (or more) to spread around on that super, South Bend has everything he needs to get there, as long as his jockey gets him ahead of those other closers. The fact that Algorithms sired him is also another gold coin. Personally, I don't think he will be as far back as he generally runs based on his gate and based on the gates of the other closers. Because of that, I will be using South Bend underneath since Art Collector scratched.


3.36 - Max Player

DP = 8-5-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36 CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 8-3-6-4-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-13-17

Sire Honor Code is represented twice in the Derby which is quite a nice tribute to A.P. Indy and would be so fitting and such a gigantic tribute should one of these colts take the roses. It is also fitting to pit these two guys together just to see how their mares affected their breeding and their styles. As far as competition, there is no comparison between the two other than sharing the same sire. Max Player is more even keeled and “average” than his half-brother. When combining the two with their separate mothers with Sire Honor Code, Honor A.P. falls at an optimum distance of 10.25f which favors his grandfather A.P. Indy. On the other hand, Max Player falls at an optimum of 9f, which in turn favors his dad, Honor Code. He is a talented and beautiful horse, but his spot is not 10f, it most likely will come in the Preakness with Pneumatic and Art Collector.


Speed - 3.00 Exact

3.00 - Authentic

DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 4-7-9-7-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.09 Triads = 20-23-19

Because Baffert seems to stick with the same playbook on all of his speed horses, this horse (depending on his gate) will bolt for that lead. If you look closely, his first 2 races (5.5f and 8f) he accelerated to the wire. Thereafter, he ran 3 more races (8.5 and 9f) and decelerated to the wire. If you look at his Mares Speed and Stamina numbers, there is a negative 1 in the point spread. His triads are gorgeous which is fairly normal for an Into Mischief colt but just like for all the others may not be as big of a factor for September. Into Mischief is all over the place as far as distance in his sons. From Practical Joke, Audible, Goldencents to Vyjack, Vicars in Trouble and Instagrand. As a sire, Into Mischief pretty much runs the gamut. They do make noise on the trail that’s for sure and then it is hit or miss in the Derby. Authentic has one of the better sets of triads on the field and if there is even a slight chance that the factor still holds some weight in September, it would be a travesty to overlook it when it is staring us in the face. His CD is very good and the 1.09 mare index is adding some speed to that bottom base 3.00 chef index. He has run spectacularly true to his numbers on the trail, which means there is an extremely strong probability that the Speed = 11 and Stamina = 10 numbers hold true at 10f. The fact that he is winding down in his longer races points to a horse that may still remain in that top flight of horses if there is a ton of air to the second flight. Therefore, this guy continues to deserve a minimal spot underneath your “go for gold” guys on your super ticket.


3.00 - Honor A.P.

DP = 5-6-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.73

Mare Profile = 8-1-7-2-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.83 Triads = 16-10-19

The only pause here is the configuration of the triads, but unlike a May race, a September race may not require packed up and loaded triads, not only for Honor AP but for every contender on the field. The combined optimum distance is of great importance though, and Honor AP is holding one of the best at 10.25f, particularly in this group . In addition, he is holding speed both in his 3.00 chef index and in the brilliant slot of his mares. That is a recipe for success in the Derby. He came in 2nd behind Thousand Words in his final prep but there is a strong probability that the race was looked at as a filler or a workout, as Honor AP was already guaranteed a gate. Additionally, the fact that he did not blow up an 8.5f race against a speedster but rather looked to have the guns to pass him easily if longer bodes well going further. The ones who win those races truly win them because it is closer to their optimum. Honor AP exploded in his prior 9f race because it is much more conducive to his optimum. This horse runs like his grandfather, not his sire. He also mimics AP Indy’s early races, winning out west on those slick tracks and then blowing them all away in the east on surfaces much more advantageous to the breeding. Honor AP’s five digit mare profile is spectacular, high early speed, higher late stamina, with a peak in the Classic distance. A reasonable shot against Tiz the Law sits right here. Mike Smith stays aboard his favorite. That's huge. He will thrive at this distance, he has the speed to compete late in the race, he should be positioned in an opportune spot and he will have enough reserved speed to kick it for home. The beauty of the field has a shot at the roses. A big shot. This is my number one Upset Guy who will be sitting in those top two spots with Tiz the Law (with one other). And it will not change.


3.00 - Storm the Court

DP = 5-2-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.86

Mare Profile = 6-7-3-5-10   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.79   Triads = 16-15-18

Going all the way back (close to a year now) for his win in the Juvenile, this race still remains one of the most unimpressive races of all of the preps. That does not change. Since then, he has not been able to crack that wire, not even one time. The reason is the lack of inbred speed. He just couldn't compete and this makes his class suffer a great deal. Being a 3.00 index horse keeps him on the bottom rung of the speed spectrum and his .79 mare index is not helping the matter as far as inheritance. With 14 unanswered races under his belt, the past performances have not shown any outstanding or stand-out qualities that would suggest this horse is ready to explode at 10f. If he couldn't show some type of dominant speed in 14 races below 10f, he certainly won't be showing it going even further. His last race was in the LaJolla, 1-1/16th on firm turf. He held his ground and stayed steady but to judge that type of "prep" for the Kentucky Derby leaves things quite sour. This guy is in way over his head.


3.00 - Enforceable

DP = 5-9-11-1-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-6-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.14 Triads = 16-13-15

As much as the Tapit factor helps Tiz the Law for the 10f distance, it will also enhance this horse as well. If the high speed category above was not as packed to the brim, this analysis would be completely opposite. Another set of horrendous mares numbers that must be overlooked. A 3.00 Tapit colt does not do well in the Kentucky Derby. Their spot is the 12f Belmont. Incredible amount of blind stamina is passed down through Tapit. Why these colts falter in Kentucky is because of the lack of high inherited speed and also because that Tapit stamina dominates well above any of that speed inheritance. This is why Tiz the Law is capturing the perfect blend – he has a 4.33 index. For this assembled field, there is no question that the style of the majority of those higher end speed guys are all gunning for those front positions and it will be inevitable that the majority will lose steam as some point. This horse has run in 10 races. In every single one of them he has charged ahead, made up ground, got stronger the longer he ran – all UNDER HIS OPTIMUM. It is obvious that the Tapit factor is spectacularly dominant for these sons (and grandsons) because both he and Tiz the Law did not perform when it was a sloppy track. This will be Enforceable’s best advantage to date in all 10 races that he run as long as the rain stays away. A must use somewhere on your ticket on a clear clean track.


Mid-Range - 2.00 to 2.90

Necker Island

DP = 4-6-14-0-0 (24) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 4-3-7-8-5   Speed = 7   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.72   Triads = 14-18-20

Here's another with much more stamina than speed. His numbers are not balanced enough, the scales tip further to the left (stamina) and the speed side is lacking to the point where he could never compete against what is on this field. His low .58 CD on top of that low .72 mare index does not do well in the 10f Derby even though he has the distance if he wanted. When asked to use his speed early, the horse connects at 8f and under. When asked for that same speed above 8f, he stalls or goes backwards. That is because the horse wants to favor the stamina, he wants to go slow early on so that he can run at a fairly even pace longer. This is written in his numbers and shown in his past performances. His new trainer got him to quicken his pace early in the 9f Indiana Derby which gave him some hope but the horse stalled late. At 9f, this is a bad sign, and at 10f, it is disastrous. In the Ellis Park Derby, he was not pushed as fast early, and he did make up ground late but again, it was stagnant and even. Again, not a good sign for 10f against this group. This guy wants to go slow in the early stages of his race (based on his displayed performances and in the configurations of his numbers) and he can go 10f but it appears that he will most likely remain stagnant as the cavalry comes charging. This will never do in the Kentucky Derby. An easy toss.


2.33 - Major Fed

DP = 6-8-14-1-1 (30) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 5-5-5-12-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.74 Triads = 15-22-22

The speed/stamina balance of the mare’s numbers depict the highest inherited mare stamina on the field. The configuration of the triads also depict the best on the field. His mares passed down the longest distance capability at 11.6f. When combined with his chefs, this leaves him with the potential of sustaining his speed to an optimum of 10.9f. There is no question he has the distance. He has the type of distance that will allow him to run away from that rail to pass defeated and tired horses and a gate assignment is not as crucial with this type of stamina. With only 10 points in his mares speed numbers combined with his chef’s index, we are looking at a horse who lacks in early short speed inheritance and he runs exactly to his numbers. But last week, he decided to show off some hidden speed at precisely the correct time. If it were May, I wouldn't be looking at him and my advice would have been to single him on top in the 12f Belmont. But now we see his maturity and this guy ran a 46.80 bullet workout at Churchill Downs this past week. That time is extremely significant for a colt bred in this way. That alone is deserving of stars and arrows and circles all over his name on that PP sheet. But there is more. With the overloaded and lopsided amount of quick early speedsters who mostly all want to be up front, Major Fed’s style bodes well for this quiet stamina monster who is packing a ton of hidden speed. What is extremely telling here dates way back to his maiden race in Nov of 2019. It was short little 6f race. He managed to hit 3rd among a field of eleven. Most all of his opponents in that race were speedsters. But the main reason why this short race stands out is because it was sloppy track. Take the time to study his times and pace figures for that race. With his stamina, that 3rd place on that surface shows that this guy has some hidden speed much greater than what is depicted in his numbers. It takes speed to win the Derby and it must be backed with the stamina to sustain it. He has it. He has the qualities of Animal Kingdom, Country House and I'll Have Another. His final prep, the Indiana Derby, started bad out of the gate but ended up being his best performance to date. His ability to drive 4 wide from dead last to 2nd under his optimum points to a standout in this race with his inheritance. With the way the Speed category turned out this year, there is absolutely no chance of leaving this guy off of that superfecta and not just the underneath spots either. This guy has everything he needs to be a player and could quite possibly be one of the best longshots to pair against Tiz the Law if you’re up to taking that risk. Not in place of – just in case of - right beside him and spread. Speed vs stamina. He will either capitalize off of a crazy pace or he fades to nothing. He is sitting with Sole Volante-type Stamina but his breeding and his resume is depicting speed to go with it. This is my second choice to go for the upset against Tiz and this will not change either. Major Fed and Honor AP are my "going for the gold" horses.


2.20 - Attachment Rate

DP = 2-4-10-0-0 (16) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 5-2-8-11-2 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.87 Triads = 15-21-21

His numbers are half descent and it would appear he will easily capture the 10f but it will be much slower than the other two in this category. Another who would have been well suited for the Belmont in June at 12 furlongs. His brilliant and intermediate numbers in both the chefs and the mares are lacking and this affects both his running style and his beyers. There is something about this horse though, with his extremely high amount of stamina that is very hard to bypass based on the high amount of speed contenders entered. Only 4 will hit that board and there is something about this category that, as much as it is disadvantaged in May, is giving me a huge pause to completely neglect at my own peril. This horse is another that I need more time with. With 3 contenders in this category, the advantage is definitely with Major Fed but this guy is still hard to toss this early. I will continue to research this horse, take into consideration future workouts at Churchill Downs and gate assignments. At the moment, Attachment Rate will remain in limbo and I will update him the day I am more satisfied with the extra information. The extra time would be between him and Dr. Post for possible consideration for underneath spots on the super. I need the additional time we still have to continue with him. I do really like this horse or it could be that he is just too pretty to let go of right now.


Stamina - 2.00 and Under

2.00 - Money Moves

DP = 2-3-6-1-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = = 6-2-7-7-7   Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.75   Triads = 15-16-21

There are alot of favorable attributes with this particular guy and sometimes you can still pull out some important and telling factors with a minimal resume. First, the most important factor is that Sole Volante is no longer the only true "stamina" guy on the field. He now has company. The other important factor is that this particular stamina guy doesn't run way in the back. He prefers to rate up front. This is huge. His preferred "style" is in the same manner as his half-brother Gun Runner. A stamina guy up front is lethal. They get position and they can continue as long as they want. His mare profile is very good as far as stamina is concerned and the fact that his style is counter to those numbers is quite a favoring point. Just like Gun Runner/Shared Belief, they have more hidden speed from Candy Ride. If you look at his 3 past performances, winning short on a sloppy track is spectacular for a horse bred like this. But what stands out is the fact that even though his pace figures are nowhere near some of the bigshots on this field, they are either on par or actually exceed their maiden and/or early short pace figures if gauging apples for apples. Additionally, the pace figures that he did receive were all commendable as he rated behind the leader, which means he didn't have to go faster than necessary - and this doesn't necessarily mean that he COULDN'T go faster if he had to. He did what the race dictated to him and he did very well. Looking at the numbers, this guy would have been a prime candidate for the 12f Belmont stakes but he also has that short early speed which stands out like a sore thumb for the Derby. Based on everything, including the fact that he too has matured into his own even with his minimal resume. This entire set-up, both the high amount of inbred stamina coupled with his running style is actually fantastic. There is no reason to think that whatever the pace brings us in this race come Saturday, that Money Moves would not be able to rate accordingly. I do believe with his breeding he will join the top flight of horses no matter the early pace and he has the breeding to continue. I like this set-up very much. He will be deserving of his extreme high odds based on his past performance sheet and in my mind, he is also extremely deserving of a spot on that super ticket because of it. This guy is a magnificent longshot contender with a ton of potential to hold on for his piece. He will definitely be on my tickets.


.96 - Mr. Big News

DP = 5-1-33-7-0 (46) DI = 0.96   CD = 0.09

Mare Profile = 2-10-3-11-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.65   Triads = 15-24-20

Oh no! We could have been in real trouble here. This guy is a 110% type horse. Galileo is all over this set-up. These numbers are C-R-A-Z-Y good. Insanely good. Packed to the brim with 46 points in the that Chef profile with a sick 33 point dominating that Classic center. The mares numbers are equally impressive and rival the big guy just below him. As far as inheritance, Sole Volante is no longer on his own in the category. But here is the difference... This guy is either running in the wrong races on the wrong surfaces or he just isn't running to those numbers. He has run all his races under 9f and his pace figures are screaming for redemption on a much longer track. He has no hidden speed. He is 110% stamina. There is no doubt that this horse will have zero problems going the 10f. That distance will be a walk in the park for him. He did his best running to date on a sloppy track and that is 110% because his chefs profile is giving him 46 loaded points. It doesn't get much better than that on a sloppy track. This horse does not want to run a quick pace early on a clear track. When he is forced to go faster than his breeding wants, he folds up shop and stops running before the stretch. He will be in for a rude awakening come Derby day, when the stampede goes charging out of that gate to gain their preferred positions and he will have no choice to run out with them. He will not be able to tail horses like Major Fed or Sole Volante or South Bend later in the game. His early pace will 110% be pushed to its limit. He'll go the distance but he can't compete with the speed of the other closers. This guy wants to run long but he also wants to take his sweet old time gearing up for it. If you pit him against Major Fed using their last race, there is no comparison.The glaring difference is that Mr. Big News is taking his inheritance literally and obviously to the chef extreme. He can't help it. He is way too lopsided to the stamina extreme and that is what he is favoring. Between the 3 true stamina guys, this is the guy that belongs in the Dubai World Cup, not the Kentucky Derby.


.93 - Sole Volante

DP = 6-0-13-5-2 (26) DI = 0.93 CD = 0.12

Mare Profile = 4-9-5-9-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 18-23-19

Love him or hate him because of a layoff, he is the only stamina horse (possibly) entered in this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby. There wouldn’t be a chance in hell that I would leave the solo stamina guy off of a Derby ticket. This guy is talented. He is loaded and quite possibly has the best configurations on the field. Look at those triads next to that entire Chef line. The 18 points garnered in the first slot of the triads is the money number. He is mature now. He has the distance blind-folded. He has shown us speed in shorter races. He likes time off. He is perfectly built for the race and built in physique. He has no peer sitting with him in the gate. He is alone. He would be up against a field that is 70% speed with only a handful that are obviously equipped to go the distance. His Belmont race is a toss, completely and totally souped up and too short for his breeding and more importantly, his style. He hated it. His trainer actually apologized for it. A definite must use because of the advantage he has as the solo stamina guy. There’s always one who hits that board and you have only one to choose from. He is a Thunder Snow clone running (hopefully) on a clean track in September. I see him doing very well at Keeneland in the Classic as well. Take the talent and the advantage against this overblown speed field. He deserves a spot somewhere on that ticket. This guy may even deserve an individual Win ticket on the side based on his ability with his likely odds. I will not be putting him on top against Tiz the Law, even though I spent days going back and forth with him and Major Fed. After all is said and done, I like better him for a shot underneath. The advantage as the only stamina guy on the field is a gift. I have no trepidation about spending extra money to load up underneath after seeing this exact spot hitting that board time and time again. If he falters, there will be others on that ticket to take his place.

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You may not recreate this analysis in any manner.

LDM 8/16/2020


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