After Tiz the Law’s first derby Prep score in the Champagne Stakes back on October 5th of 2019 and all the way through to his last win in the Florida Derby 2 months ago, the numbers of this particular colt screamed D-O-O-M in the Derby. They very well may end up being the worst set of numbers associated with any of the entrants in the Derby this year. They may just bite him at the top of the stretch where they are saying they will hit that wall, but there is something looming on the outer edge that cannot be ignored. This guy has haunted my nights for 2 months and it cannot be ignored a second longer.
TIZ THE LAW
Chefs DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) Index = 4.33 CD = .75
Mares DP = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14
The way these numbers stand as far as the Kentucky Derby, to put it mildly - they are absolutely positively horrendous. At face value, these numbers are worse than Roadster’s from last year. Top and bottom, there is not one thing that would make these configurations blend and mix together that would result in a potential 10f runner. As they stand, the .75 CD next to his 4.33 chef index is allowing him the 9.4f. The mare’s line is completely lacking in additional stamina and usually that type of mare configuration will steal any excess stamina the chefs might have offered. It is easy to see why Tiz the Law is as quick as he is based on these numbers and they all point directly to a 9f to 9.4f runner. He will have zero problem in the (9f) Belmont and the Preakness. He would be an easy toss for the Derby…but here is the rub when it comes to the Derby…
This guy has shades of Bolt D’oro in that he may turn out to be the “Damned if you do and Damned if you don’t” type of horse. When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, every angle must be in play and to bypass something could be detrimental to your superfecta. In the second generation of his chart sits Tapit. Tiz the Law is not an immediate product of Tapit, however, he is still a close descendant none-the less. Over the years, Tapit colts have shown severe bad luck in the Kentucky Derby but they somehow find their way to the top in the 12f Belmont Stakes. Let’s take a look at some of these Tapit boys in order to get to the reason why Tiz the Law may in fact have exactly what he needs to get somewhere in the Derby.
If a colt can run 12f then common sense tells us he can run 10f. With Tapit involved things go a bit haywire. His offspring generally have horrific numbers for the Derby both TOP and BOTTOM, and for the Belmont, the top is generally good, it is the bottom that is completely off. The bottom is where the stamina generally comes into play. When it comes to Tapit offspring, it just doesn’t matter. The chef’s numbers are proper for the 12f distance, the mares numbers are not. But they always grab their piece with complete disregard to the female line. It is all the unseen magical Tapit stamina. Look at the mare numbers of these recent Tapit Boys in the Belmont, extraordinarily horrific...
2014 – Tonalist – First in the Belmont, did not run in the Derby.
Chef: Index = 2.82 CD = .57
Mares: Speed = 14 Stamina = 16 Index = .86 Triads = 14-8-16
2015 – Frosted – Second in the Belmont, 4th in the Derby
Chefs: Index = 2.75 CD = .67
Mares: Speed = 15 Stamina = 15 Index = .96 Triads = 15-9-15
2016 – Creator – First in the Belmont, 13th in the Derby
Chefs: Index = 3.00 CD = .65
Mares: Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.14 Triads = 17-16-16
2017 – Tapwrit – First in the Belmont, 6th in the Derby
Chefs: Index = 3.00 CD = .71
Mares = Speed = 16 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.43 Triads = 19-14-15
2018 – Hofburg – 3rd in the Belmont, 7th in the Derby
Chefs: Index = 2.78 CD = .65
Mares: Speed = 16 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-9-16
2019 – Tacitus – 2nd in the Belmont, 3rdin the Derby
Chefs: Index = 3.92 CD = .78
Mares: Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16
If you look down the line, the mare numbers are nowhere near where they need to be for either the Belmont or the Derby. In most cases, the speed is either equal to or more than the inbred stamina. Most of the triads are split in two or they descend which is so against the rules. The stamina that allowed these horses to carry the 12f distance came 101% from Tapit. Most importantly here is the fact that the best performance by any of them in the Kentucky Derby came from Tacitus. All the others (with the exception of Frosted grabbing 4th) did poorly at the 10f distance. Tapit colts struggle in the Derby because obviously they are overwhelmingly dominant in stamina. SPEED is necessary in the Derby and that speed needs to be balanced with all of the unseen Tapit stamina. Notice Tacitus’ chef index. It is the highest out the group at 3.92. This is the reason why Tacitus was able to be a real player in the Derby and why he was able to grab 2nd over all of his half-brothers who could not. They lacked in speed inheritance and they had too much dominant stamina which is why they could not connect in the Derby. Lack of speed. Midrange chef indexes. Too much Tapit influence.
Now we have Tiz the Law. Again, Tapit is not his immediate sire, he is one generation back. Therefore, there is a very strong probability that a 2nd generation Tapit boy will at least give him some of that magic stamina whereby Tiz the Law’s mares may not come into play as well. He doesn’t need the full amount, he needs a portion of it and since Tapit is a generation back it may just be the perfect amount. In addition, his chef’s index is even higher than Tacitus at 4.33. This means he gained even more speed from his chefs which is absolutely the KEY to the Derby. Additionally, with his higher end chef index, it puts him in a much better position for the Derby and ironically, this set-up would have been completely disastrous in the 12f Belmont (opposite his cousins) but no need to worry. Now at 9f, it is perfect. Now, the question becomes, does that 2nd generation Tapit stamina give him what he needs to prevail in the Derby? There is a strong possibility that the balance becomes spot on for the Kentucky Derby. He grabs additional stamina far and above those terrible mare numbers, just like his cousins did in the past. But this time the chefs are giving him that much needed speed that is required in Kentucky.
The following is a list of potential contenders who he sits with in that over-advantaged SPEED category to date. The reason why I picked Tiz the Law above the others in this category is because of that Tapit factor up against the numbers of the other entrants.
Chefs: 5-9-10-0-0 (24) Index = 3.80 CD = .79
Mares: 8-4-2-4-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = .85 Triads = 14-10-16
He hits the 9f Belmont and most likely the Preakness as well. For the Derby, his CD is okay and the mare index is actually not that bad either but the triads are disastrous and very difficult to look past for the 10f. The Baffert factor does loom large but I do think that the “great trainer” knows what he has in his other star and the funny business will most likely stay away this year. If Charlatan does in fact win the 9f Belmont then he will make his play with this guy in order to grab another Crown. That would be bad news for Nadal who would then become a sacrificial lamb for no reason at all. Charlatan is not built for the Kentucky Derby.
Chefs: 4-2-6-0-0 (12) Index = 3.00 CD = .83
Mares = 4-7-9-7-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.09 Triads = 20-23-19
Pros and cons with this guy. He appears to be the best threat if the Tapit idea with Tiz the Law fails because of the generation skip. Strong possibility. The big pieces for this speed guy is that .83 CD coupled with the triads. The bad part is that Into Mischief colts have a tendency to fire on all cylinders along the trail and then lay low closer to the Derby. This year, with 3 extra months, that negative may in fact heal itself. Out of all of the Speed contenders so far, Authentic is the one who could be the real player in this category. In addition, he takes a dip between his mare speed/stamina balance but his triads are fantastic. He needs to show some class in the upcoming months. To be revisited in full the last week in August. For now, the speed guy must default to Tiz the Law.
Chefs: 2-4-2-0-0 (8) Index = 7.00 CD = 1.00
Mares: 5-7-7-7-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.00 Triads = 19-21-19
His numbers are actually not that bad but it would seem that the horse may not be as healthy or as strong as he was at 2 years old. Could be he isn’t getting as much love as he did once Nadal and Charlatan made their presence known. Either way, he would need to show a complete 360 over the next 3 months to be able to jump back onto these numbers again. He has the inbred speed and his triads are one of the best of the group. He needs to show once again what he is truly made of.
Chefs: DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) Index = 4.00 CD = .80
Mares: DP = = 10-1-7-7-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.27 Triads = 18-15-18
These numbers will never get him the 10f. The mares profile shifts all the way to the right. There is no additional stamina to add onto his last prep. No chance.
Chefs: 7-6-5-0-2 (20) Index = 3.40 CD = .80
Mares: 5-5-5-10-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = .87 Triads = 15-20-19
These numbers are really spectacular for the Derby. Speed on top, a nice 4 point spread in mare’s speed/stamina balance, and hefty Triads leaning to stamina which balances the chef’s speed very nicely. He is configured very similar to a Lookin at Lee type. He has 3 months to figure out how to utilize his perfectly configured inheritance and he has to capitalize on it sooner than later. Within the speed category, his numbers are the finest but that does not mean a horse always takes them and runs to them. He has luckily inherited some time to get it together before the big day and he will surely be one to revisit.
The Outlook for Tiz the Law:
At this point, the speed category is severely lacking in mare stamina and it appears that the default speed guy at the end of May will fall squarely onto the magic of Tapit. Waiting in the wings is Silver State, Honor AP, Max Player, Gold Street, and Independence Hall. They have some time to work their way up the ladder. The only one who has a real opportunity to test Tiz the Law, at this moment, is Authentic and possibly Eight Rings. They both need a smashing race soon to be considered.