2020 Derby – May vs September

"BETTING THE NUMBERS"



Common sense would dictate that a race held for 3 year olds in May would be dramatically different for the same group running 4 months later. What will affect this assumption is the bias of the track. We have seen two major races this season where the bias of the track was outlandishly geared to speed, the Belmont and the Travers. That fact could just as easily be the same case at Churchill in the Derby on September 5th.


I will be honest in saying that with no precedence for a September 10f race for three year olds at Churchill, confidence in the numbers and how they will react is non-existent this year. Projecting the high amount of speed players entered is only looking at the common sense angle and it could just as easily be absolutely wrong. Therefore, it is imperative to view this race from two separate angles, taking into consideration these major points:

1) 90% of the time, in the Kentucky Derby, the numbers never lie.

2) The bulk of the top 4 players, year over year, has consisted of speed favoring colts with one stamina guy breaking through.

3) Speed colts dominate over stamina colts when the said colts are carrying enough stamina inheritance to sustain that speed.


These facts are prevalent every year, regardless of weather conditions and the fact that we are adding 4 months to the tail end of a normal running of the Derby, may or may not still ring true. Not one handicapper can predict how the change in timing will affect any single horse. If we assume that one has matured as it pertains to the Derby, then we must assume all have changed. There is no way to gauge the effects of the breeding.


With all of that in mind, this uncertainty brings us to yet another way to a profit.


The other day BR172200 posted the following in the forum:


“The minimum superfecta wager is being reduced from a dollar to a dime on Kentucky Derby day. Other minimums are 50 cents for trifectas, Pick-3's, Pick-4's, and Pick-5's; 20 cents for the “Single-6” pick-6; and a dollar for daily doubles and the Super High-5. Straight exactas remain at two dollars and exacta boxes and wheels at one dollar.


The idea of playing a 10 cent super would normally be absurd for the Kentucky Derby. We get the opportunity once a year and this is a betting race with serious money being poured in from all over the world. The entire one race a year betting public will be boxing Tiz, Art Collector, Honor AP and Authentic to cash 14.00. It is a ridiculous and ludicrous bet... but... there is a different side to look at. With Tiz the Law most likely winning this race at even money, the risk of spending hundreds on a $1.00 and $2.00 super with complete uncertainty for a September Derby race - realistically barely getting your money back when he does indeed win is not a good bet either. This is why we are looking to go for gold in a potential upset but still keeping him where he belongs. The idea here continues in the same vein. That 10 cent super may actually be to our advantage. Use of the 10 cent super may now become an extremely advantageous backup. It is the same as going for an upset guy with Tiz the Law in your regular $1.00 or $2.00 super bet. You are keeping “the best” in using Tiz on top with a “just in case guy” with him. If you also add in an extra 10 cent (or 20, 30, 40 etc cent bet) in conjunction with your main ticket, you be covering yourself in a completely different way.


Hear me out.


In May, there is no question that dosage numbers (along with projection and bias) are close to 95% spot on year after year. With the change in 4 months, history cannot be used because everything is different. Since we have never been presented with this scenario, we are left to guess that the idea of maturity, style of running and everything else surrounding growth and potential will apply at a greater capacity.


But what if this is wrong? What if the numbers play exactly the same? What if Churchill is as speed biased as the Belmont Stakes this year or the Travers. Yes, Tiz the Law still has the advantage, but he has it either way anyway. That changes nothing as far as he is concerned – but it changes many horses below him. Hence, the 10 cent super. This bet could be an extremely cheap way to gamble on something that has been consistent for years. It can be a back up to your main ticket. It can be the speed ticket and the higher “go for gold bet” can be the stamina ticket (or vice versa, however you deem fit.)


The posted analysis from the other day is a projection on how the field will play out based on how the field was laid out in the categories and the effects of the high amount of speed demons entered. Tiz the Law of course being front and center and who won his major races on heavily speed bias tracks. The thought had occurred to me that there is nothing that says Churchill won’t be as speed biased as well. Actually, there is a much better percentage in favor of a speed favoring track. It either is or it isn’t, which is a 50% chance PLUS it could in fact rain that day, which brings the percentage up to a 75% chance that speed reigns supreme just like it always has in the past.


With that in mind, what would be the downfall in throwing a 10 or 20 or 50 cent super side bet in with your major bet? None. The ticket would be just about as cheap as you can get. You might lose it all or cash low, barely making the minimal layout back if all the favorites grace the top. Or several 40+ odds bearers could hit that top just as easily. And based on the history of the Kentucky Derby, just as we have all come to know, there is a real possibility that those numbers play out again. At 10 cents a shot, how could you pass it up?

Consider this… if there was an opportunity to bet an 10 cent super last year, using 10 horses in various positions and spending a max of about 40 bucks, your payoff would have been $5140.00. A longshot beating the favorite pays and if you take a shot at it, spending 30 or 40 bucks, it would crazy to walk away from that.


Let’s take a look at some of the players that flipped from May to September, and instead, view them as how their advantage would have stood in a normal May Derby. Keeping Tiz the Law in the top spot either way remains the same. This is not an attempt to confuse anyone from what was written in the real analysis, this is simply an idea as a cheap backup which stays true to the numbers and puts out the obvious. We will hold Tiz the Law out because he would be the main guy either way. He is a must use either way.


The Month of May - Top Speed Guys based on their numbers:

(Besides Tiz the Law)


Authentic

NY Traffic

Thousand Words

Rushie


The Month of May Top Stamina Guys based on their numbers:

Sole Volante

Money Moves

Major Fed

Enforceable (Tapit)

Notice how Art Collector and Honor AP are missing from the above two lists. That is because of their mare triads. They are under par and no matter how great they may be or how sensational I personally think Honor AP is, the fact remains, he would have been a complete toss on my analysis in May. The fact that he has become my top player now going for a score against Tiz the Law has me shaking in my boots. I would never have even had dreams of choosing his numbers over say Authentic or Thousand Words. Never. So why would I now? And why do I think I have to? I don’t have to. We have 10 cent supers now! In addition, Art Collector would not have been such a monster back then because he would have still been an optional claiming type horse. The fact that his numbers miss the mark still remains. With both of these guys, since we've had had the opportunity to see them blossom, I would find that bypassing them on a costly super or a cheap super would be silly either way. Honor AP is packing undeniable stamina so I at least feel comfortable there and Art Collector still holds Bernardini. It's fine. So, the top 3 favorites – Tiz the Law, Art Collector and Honor AP – the three who have seriously horrible mare numbers – would need to be spread on a 10 cent super completely across the board in each slot. Basically you are covering yourself with “the best” and yet trying to upset all 3 as cheaply as you can in all 4 spots. That is the only way to cash this year with the dosage numbers being historically off, or – still historically on point. Ironically, Churchill is allowing us the opportunity to go all out both ways this year.

Being a die-hard dosage follower, I cannot in good conscience disregard what the numbers have told me year after year. That being said, I will place several 10 - 20 - 50 cent supers to back up my first big ticket in order to get my money back just in case. There is a very strong possibility as well that the minimal layout for these 10 cent supers could bring back 10x to 60x to 100X the reward in profit. I’d rather cash something, anything for that matter, than rip up a ticket.


If history has taught me anything over the years, the numbers never lie.

Year after year, the most advantaged colts fall into the speed category and usually one stamina horse breaks his way into the top 4 on the tote board. The reason why speed colts carry that advantage is because their inheritance makes them charge for the front and once there, they continue to occupy the best spot and most advantaged positions throughout. The stamina guys have a difficult time making up so much ground because of one simple fact – they lack inheritance of speed. No matter what time of year a race is run, speed wins races. It takes speed to get to the wire first.

Tiz the Law, Honor AP and Art Collector are still a given and should still be treated as the top players across each slot. It will not make a bit of difference to Tiz the Law, he holds an advantage fair and square based on his high speed inheritance coupled with the Tapit stamina. Where it will make a difference is with Art Collector and Honor AP. They have PERFORMED at a much higher level than their competitors here so we must use them, however, their numbers, specifically their mare numbers, are vulnerable historically. We have no guarantee that the history will or will not continue this year and it is better to be safe than sorry.

So with that all in mind, here is what the analysis would have likely depicted as the top 7 players (8 with Tiz the Law) if it was written at the end of April for a May race. It is based on their breeding, their numbers, and the history of the Kentucky Derby in May. There is no need to do a full blown analysis on the entire group. Historically, they are tosses anyway. The following, based on the Derby year after year, are the players based on their numbers.

Authentic

DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = .83

Mare Profile = 4-7-9-7-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.09 Triads = 20-23-19

The number one item that pops out here are those loaded triads that reach far above par, regardless of the negative one point between the mare’s speed and stamina numbers. The 23 in Classic slot stands out. The second item is the .83 CD on top of that 1.09 index. It is good, very good actually, historically. These numbers hit the board in the Derby in May over and over again. Since we have had the pleasure of seeing him perform past the month of May, others have far surpassed him later in the game BUT these colts who have out-performed him were not facing fields of 20 at Churchill Downs. In a May analysis, Authentic would be a MUST USE, but I would caution that they are “Hit the Board Numbers” as opposed to “Winning the Roses” numbers. If you do decide to play a small 10 cent super to back your main one, this guy must be on your ticket. The numbers aren’t perfect but they are certainly up on top among the list of probables.

Thousand Words

DP = 2-4-2-0-0 (8) DI – 7.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 5-7-7-7-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.00 Triads = 19-21-19

Again, the mare triads stand out a great deal and the high amount of inbred chef speed is undeniably advantageous. His CD is a bit high but the configurations of the mares offer him 11f from the females. Combined he falls substantially off the mark but, prior to the Shared Belief Stakes, this horse never attempted to wire the field. That's Baffert pushing his horses to run like that which may not be the way Thousand Words wants to run. He was dying down in that 8.5f race but that isnt the horses style. A horse must run how he is comfortable and his pace, not at a pace that is forced on him. Those last seconds of that race were dictated by exerting to much speed to fulfill Baffert's obsession with Bodemeister, Bayern, Justify, Pharoah and the like. Additionally, the worse race he ran, a horrible race actually, was the sloppy track at Oaklawn. He ran like a horse possessed throughout the first 2 calls and then faded into oblivion at the end. Something made him wild on that sloppy track which to me is saying he wants to favor that mare stamina. His triads are spectacular and just like Authentic, these are hit the board numbers, not winning numbers in May. He must be used.

Rushie

DP = 3-14-5-0-0 (22) DI = 7.80 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 2-9-3-12-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = .70 Triads = 14-24-19

In a May analysis, I would being saying YES! YES! YES!! Top to bottom yes. Backwards and forwards, Yes. Historically, these numbers are simply the best set of speed numbers on the entire field. He has a 4 point spread between his speed and stamina numbers. His triads could not be configured any more perfect for a 7.80 colt. Low speed inheritance from those mares and then they skyrocket in the classic distance and still hefty in the final slot. His mare’s index , 0.70, is killer. His late pace numbers are not that great but if you notice, this horse passed horses every single time he ran to get to that wire. It is obvious that he is packing speed from his chefs, and those mare numbers will allow him to go the distance and sustain that speed further than a sprinter. These numbers are not just hit the board numbers, these are winning numbers. At the likely odds that this horse will have, if you place him across the board, top to bottom and he beats out any of those three top guys (Tiz, HAP or Art) you will get paid handsomely. This guy’s numbers are too good not to gamble on with minimal risk in a 10 cent super. I am all over this guy. And to be honest with you all, right now, at this very moment, I actually feel ALIVE writing this small analysis. Unlike the almost gloom and doom I felt writing the first one. This is what I know and what I feel confidence in. These numbers are spectacular for the Kentucky Derby. I feel like a huge weight has been lifted – thank you Churchill Downs, I’ll take those 10 cent supers and run with them because NOBODY across the globe would dare put Rushie on top of this Derby Superfecta, but I will. The sunshine has risen!!!!

NY Traffic

DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 5-4-5-7-5 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.86 Triads = 14-16-17

Board hit material, not top of the ticket material. Killer amount of inherited speed on top of a 0.86 mare index is truly nice. He will be up with the top flight and he has the most speed inheritance BUT he will not be challenged to use all of it. He never has before, so this race will be no different. His triads lack for serious consideration but they do at least incline and the 9 points he has in the Mare Speed is low enough to be confident that he isn’t overtaken with way too much when combined with his chefs. Since he is dominant in the Intermediate Category, this horse still may have enough in the tank to hold on for a small piece and if history is any guide as it is in May, NY Traffic can remain for a board hit underneath.

The four horses above have (historically) the best set-up for the Kentucky Derby in May. Only one of them (Authentic) will have low odds. The others will be in double digits. Are they worth a 10 cent super? With how I felt typing their “real” analysis, actual excitement and relief, I certainly will be taking that plunge. Now, we move on to the stamina guys.

Generally, every year on a normal Speed advantaged track in the Derby, one stamina guy will break through and grab his piece of the action. This year, we only have one true stamina horse and three other “stamina-type” guys in the dreaded 2.00 range. That means there are only 5 to choose from either way. It truly makes things so easy this year and basically all one needs to do is pick one or two of them and you’re covered.

Here are the five and where they stand historically…

Sole Volante

DP = 6-0-13-5-2 (26) DI = 0.93 CD = 0.12

Mare Profile = 4-9-5-9-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 18-23-19

He has the best configurations, not only in the stamina end of the spectrum but basically on the entire field. This horse does not, I repeat, does not like a fast slick track, so if the bias on Sept 5th ends up an oil field we must look elsewhere. If it is playing fair, Sole Volante has every shot at being the main stamina horse to break in.


Money Moves

DP = 2-3-6-1-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = = 6-2-7-7-7   Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.75   Triads = 15-16-21

There are some serious pros to using this longshot in your line-up. See complete write-up on the regular 2020 DERBY ANALYSIS.


Major Fed

DP = 6-8-14-1-1 (30) DI = 2.33 CD = .57

Mare Profile = 5-5-5-12-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.74 Triads = 15-22-22

There wouldn’t be a chance in hell of leaving this guy off of my main ticket or the cheap standby ticket. His numbers are smashing and if one of those speed guys up top decides not to run, or gets slammed, or just gets burned on the lead, Major Fed is coming. He has more inbred speed than Sole Volante above him. He has more quiet displayed speed as well. The high amount of mare stamina is unmatched on the field. This horse will be moving in the late stages of the race and if he wants to run all the way over on the left rail, he can. On top of that, he is holding 30 points in his chef’s profile. That depicts the top in the loaded area in the entire field this year. Historically, these are board-hit numbers. Major Fed = Major Player.

Enforceable

DP = 5-9-11-1-0 (26) Index = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-6-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.89 Triads = 15-11-18

Yes, I am putting him into the Stamina category with that 3.00 index. If we have learned anything over the years, these types of Tapit offspring are players in the 12f Belmont Stakes, their mare numbers mean nothing. Enforceable is a stamina colt, not a speed colt. He will be flying at the end against half the field and with his breeding, could be board-hit material, after all, he is all stamina.


For good measure, here are the other two "stamina guys"...


Attachment Rate

DP = 2-4-10-0-0 (16) DI = 2.20 CD = .50

Mare Profile = 5-2-8-11-2 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.87 Triads = 15-21-21

There is nothing really wrong with his numbers except that there is a lack of inherited speed sitting next to that 2.20 index. He would have needed to show something explosive and powerful in his races up til now and they are stagnant. A quick toss back in May means a quick toss now. I can't tell you how good this feels!

Dr. Post

3-2-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 CD = .67

Mare Profile = 9-2-4-5-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.89 Triads = 15-11-18

Historically, this horse would be one the quickest and easiest tosses on the entire board and that is exactly what I will be doing for the cheap ticket. His Index is wrong, his triads are horrendous, his mare profile is completely split and based on the last 15+ editions of the Derby, he has basically the lowest probability on the field. In May, he would have been a complete toss then, so he is a complete toss now. Decisive, to the point and historically correct. Deep breath in, exhale and smile.

I just wrote this entire article in one hour. The other article took at least 3 weeks. It absolutely just flowed, which is a testament to the numbers that I love and know so well. The other, I have slight confidence, as it is anyone’s guess as to how a September Derby will play out. Nobody could know that for sure. It has never been done so it boils down to forecasting without the breeding. This article is the pure version. The breeding and numbers as they pertain historically to our Kentucky Derby. I absolutely loved every second of its composition. There is a certain freedom in going with what you know and the familiarity of the past, regardless of odds, regardless of past performances and regardless of noise. Will I be slamming a few of those 10 cent supers. You better believe it!

Can you imagine Rushie hitting that board somewhere or actually winning this race if his breeding shows up and Tiz runs into some trouble? Can you imagine Major Fed beating out Art Collector because Art’s numbers are nowhere near what they needed to be back in May and that fact remains the same in September? What if the best set of Speed numbers gets a good trip and Authentic pushes the even money Tiz down a notch or two? The cost of a 10 cent ticket to keep the history alive and the 90% accuracy in tact is a small price to pay for the possible outcome. And you are still backing yourself up with the hotshots at the same time. It’s a win win situation.


The formulas that work in the Derby:

Three speed guys with one stamina guy.

Speed + Mare stamina = Player

The possibilities are endless. The 7 guys above would have had exactly what it takes to hit that board back in May and for 10 cents a shot, I’ll take it any day of the week.

I will do a 10 cent super with Sole Volante and Tiz the Law on top.

I will do a 10 cent super with Rushie and Tiz the Law on top. Maybe I'll throw Art Collector in there with them. Maybe Honor AP. I will roll Authentic all over that ticket. I will look to give Enforceable and NY traffic higher reign on another 10 cent super. I will use Major Fed and Thousand Words and be thrilled as opposed to scared. I will have at least 10 of these and if Tiz the Law wins (as he should) I will still have the opportunity to break even or make a killing if the numbers do their magic as they do every year consistently.

I have learned the hard way, that to bypass the numbers is detrimental and you can’t simply bet every horse in the race. But you can bet the projected best in their maturity as depicted in their past performance sheets while still giving the numbers a fighting chance with minimal risk on another cheap ticket.

The difference between this analysis and the one I posted a few days ago boils down to one thing. Confidence. I had 100% confidence in everything I wrote above which is double the percentage compared to the other. You can spend 20 or 30 bucks configuring 10 players on a 10 cent super and if the unimaginable happens, you can collect thousands. Why wouldn’t you try it with what has consistently paid off in the past. I am all over it and quite frankly, I feel even better on this blog article than the other.


If any additions to the Derby appear and they are holding the correct numbers, I will also update both this article and the other.

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