What the Talking Heads are Missing

It is difficult to block out the chatter this close to the Kentucky Derby, and the noise will only grow louder as we approach May 2nd. Keeping things in perspective - as we have done from the beginning - remains the best approach.

After all, many of the talking heads still had Napoleon Solo on their Top Ten Lists up until his recent 100-point prep.

They ride the tide.

We, on the other hand, have studied these horses inside and out, literally.

The top 5 or 6 contenders who have stood out from the very beginning may or may not get the perfect flawless trip in the Derby. The trip that they deserve to prove who is in fact, the best. This part is inevitable. If the track conditions change based on the weather, this becomes an even greater scenario.

Therefore, never rely on one single horse in any spot within your bets. Always have a backup sitting right next to him. This is probably one of the main reasons why many tickets go uncashed every year. If you need to be reminded, pick any previous Derby (especially rainy ones) and watch the first 10 seconds of the race.

Here are several observations that cut through the noise and are worth keeping in mind as you handicap the race.

Further Ado: Built for the Classic Distance

Further Ado’s first two maiden attempts at Saratoga came at six and seven furlongs. Two distances that he will only see in workouts for the rest of his career.

This horse is simply not built to compete in sprinting races. He is built for the classic 10-furlong distance.

His third maiden attempt as an immature two-year-old came at Keeneland against several speed demons, this time stretching to 8.5 furlongs on a clean track. The advantage switched in his favor, and he blew them away.

In the Kentucky Jockey Club, he faced a very good rival in Universe at the same 8.5-furlong distance. The son of Global Campaign was in his element and put up a strong fight. Further Ado did not deliver a visually dazzling win, but he still prevailed against quality competition under those parameters.

Further Ado is simply a very talented classic-distance colt who revealed his will and determination very successfully in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He persevered and he won.

Is it not enough for this horse to simply win? Must every victory be an expected blowout just for this guy and not for the others? I recall no "concern" when others won by only a nose, a neck or a length.

Next up in the Tampa Bay Derby. Further Ado now beginning to grow into himself, came second to The Puma in an 8.5-furlong race with the rain on a wet surface. Those conditions strongly favored speed-dominant horses, and The Puma fits that profile perfectly. Further Ado is not built that way.

In addition, recent revelations that Further Ado became ill after the KYJC and was being nursed back on the farm as opposed to training for Derby Preps.

He was not 100% recovered when entered at Tampa Bay and still managed to rack up Derby points in spite of that (in the rain no less).

A horse is never going to be advantaged in every single race, at every distance, or on every track bias. This is Handicapping 101. He is not Flightline - the freak who dominated at every distance and track.

The Kentucky Derby is run at 10 furlongs, not 8.5. It may or may not rain, but Further Ado still ran against the grain and still remained competitive nonetheless in Tampa. Advantages flip as distances and conditions change. The Puma has already shown us where he prefers to be. Keep that in mind.

The Tampa Bay race was not a regression. Further Ado simply faced three clear hindrances: the shorter distance, a speed-favoring wet bias and still recovering from sickness. He returned to more suitable conditions in the Blue Grass Stakes at nine furlongs on a clear, fast track at Keeneland at 100% fitness - the exact opposite of what he encountered in Tampa. He demolished them there.

Would The Puma have stood any chance against Further Ado in that nine-furlong Blue Grass rather than the Florida Derby against Commandment? That is the kind of question handicappers must ask when evaluating biases and competition. The stats speak for themselves.

As far as the obnoxious talk of an impending "bounce" for Further Ado after the 106 beyer - it's possible, but the horse did not overtly expend himself, he simply ran his race, basically alone.

As good as he is, the extreme lengths that separated him from his competitors were not because he used alot of himself, it was because his competitors paled in comparison within the parameters. They contributed to that demolition on their own. Again, he is built to sustain his speed. 9f is nothing to him.

Further Ado is arguably the most talented colt in the entire crop. He has proven faster than Ted Noffey under identical conditions and has looked like the “Epicenter” of the season. Further Ado at 100% is a beast.

He will enter the gate at Churchill Downs (on a clear dry day) with a higher natural advantage than most of the field, including The Puma. This does not guarantee a safe and sound trip - nothing does in the Kentucky Derby - but it is a significant edge worth respecting.

Potente: Losing Can Sometimes Be a Positive Sign

Sometimes an adverse reaction to a defeat is understandable. Watching Potente go to the lead and lose was frustrating, especially after seeing the familiar gate-to-wire Baffert playbook so many times. Still, a few important factors deserve consideration.

Potente is built for 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs. He was not advantaged at nine furlongs on the lead at Santa Anita. The horse better suited to the parameters of that race was the 7.00 son of Runhappy, So Happy.

Does finishing second while running against both the bias and his own preferred style mean Potente’s classic build should be discarded for Louisville?

History says hell no.

Tell that to Authentic, who won the Kentucky Derby after Honor A.P. beat him in the Santa Anita Derby in 2020. Advantages switch.

Tell that to Game Winner, who finished well ahead of his rival in Kentucky, after coming in 2nd to Roadster (15th in KY) at Santa Anita in 2019.

Tell that to Battle of Midway (3rd in KY) who came in 2nd to Gormley (9th in KY) in the 9f SA Derby in 2017.

Controversially, tell that to Medina Spirit after Rock Your World defeated him in the 2021 Santa Anita Derby. Rock Your World came in 16th place in KY. And there are many more examples throughout history.

Advantages switch when distances and bias change.

Sometimes losing a race where parameters contradict a horse’s build is actually a good sign. Rewatching that gate to wire attempt multiple times revealed a horse who still ran one hell of a race.

Robusta's build held no advantage in this race either.

The heavily hyped Robusta folded prior to the final turn trying to keep pace with Potente and came in dead last.

He couldn't keep up with that pace and was no match. The real evidence came from how competitive the 2.73 Potente remained against the 7.00 son of Runhappy, So Happy, despite the mismatch in energy use, style and optimum distance.

Advantages will change dramatically when the distance stretches to 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs. So Happy may excel on a wetter surface at 10f, but perspective on distance and bias remains essential.

Potente showed he has real speed, highly competitive in that department, but he has a more balanced scale, it is not lop-sided on the speed side (like So Happy). He ran to the latter in the SA Derby and still did very well against the grain. He will progress off of that effort - if his connections allow him to run in his own way and to his set-up.

Potente will have two key factors to overcome: securing a protected and safe trip and, just as importantly, Baffert allowing him to run to his own previous successful style rather than forcing another gate-to-wire effort.

(On a side note, with the updated chefs-de-race list, Medina Spirit was actually extremely well built for the 10-furlong Derby. It remains a shame (for the horse) over what ultimately happened there.)

The Mid-Pack and Rear-Runner Advantage

Mid-pack and rear runners have been remarkably successful in recent editions of the Kentucky Derby for two main reasons.

First, a few of the lower rated colts that had drawn into the race were natural speedsters/milers. They often end up on the lead early but lack the stamina to sustain that pace for a full 10 furlongs.

In addition, the chaos of Derby Day forces those who are on the cusp to expend extra energy even before the gates open, leaving them vulnerable too. When they all disintegrate on or near the final turn, the mid-pack and rear runners are perfectly poised to capitalize with their energy still intact.

Second, pace scenarios often become extreme. Insane opening fractions have become common since Summer Is Tomorrow’s unrealistic 45.36 half. The simple law of cause and effect.

Trainers with two or three entries can sometimes pursue opportunistic agendas that intentionally (or unintentionally) accelerate the pace.

A clear recent example came in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic, when Chad Brown entered Contrary Thinking primarily as a potential pace aid for Sierra Leone. Fortunately for Sierra, the rabbit was shut out of the lead, and he proved he did not need the extra help in the first place.

This year, Chad has three possible entries: Iron Honor, Ottinho, and Emerging Market at Churchill.

Iron Honor showed off his gate-to-wire speed in the short eight-furlong Gotham.

In the Wood Memorial, he landed up with the lead tier, stalking the pace after getting bumped into the first turn - he faded badly at the 9f distance.

Iron Honor is a speed-dominant colt with two strong 10-furlong barn mates who may benefit a great deal if circumstances allow use of him as a tactical friend. You just never know.

Any trainer with multiple entries with opposing running styles deserves close scrutiny for the possibility of turning the early pace into a tornado. Such a scenario would benefit all unscathed mid-pack and rear runners - not just those from the same barn.

Handicappers must carefully evaluate the true distance limitations of any horse who could be sent to the front early.

(This reality, in turn, is another very strong reason to keep colts built like Potente AWAY from that lead tier.)

And finally...

Just because a horse shows speed and STAMINA in a 9f race it does not mean he is automatically getting 10f at Churchill, especially with 20 horses in the gate this time.

The same people who touted horses like Napoleon Solo on Top Ten Lists and did not let off the gas with it after 8f, (which is what the horse was always bred for) are doing the same exact thing now with the 9f runners. Do not fall for it. Like I said in the beginning, the talking heads RIDE WITH THE TIDE.