What the Talking Heads are Missing

It is difficult to block out the chatter this close to the Kentucky Derby, and the noise will only grow louder as we approach May 2nd. Keeping things in perspective - as we have done from the beginning - remains the best approach.

After all, many of the same talking heads still had Napoleon Solo on their Top Ten Lists until the recent 100-point preps.

They ride the tide.

We, on the other hand, have studied these horses inside and out, literally.

The top 5 or 6 contenders who have stood out from the very beginning may or may not get the unscathed trip in the Derby that they deserve to prove who is in fact, the best. This is inevitable. If the track conditions change based on the weather, this becomes an even greater scenario.

Therefore, never rely on one single horse in any spot within your bets. Always have a backup sitting right next to him. This is probably one of the main reasons why many tickets go uncashed every year. If you need to be reminded, pick any previous Derby (especially rainy ones) and watch the first 10 seconds of the race.

Here are several observations that cut through the noise and are worth keeping in mind as you handicap the race.

Further Ado: Built for the Classic Distance

Further Ado’s first two maiden attempts at Saratoga came at six and seven furlongs. This horse is simply not built to be a sprinter. He is built for the classic 10-furlong distance. His third maiden attempt as an immature two-year-old came at Keeneland against several speed demons, this time stretching to 8.5 furlongs on a clean track. The advantage switched in his favor, and he blew them away.

In the Kentucky Jockey Club, he faced a very good rival in Universe at the same 8.5-furlong distance. The son of Global Campaign was in his element and put up a strong fight. Further Ado did not deliver a visually dazzling win, but he still prevailed against quality competition under those parameters. Further Ado is simply a very talented classic-distance colt who showed his will and determination very successfully in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He persevered and he won.

Is it not enough for a horse to simply win? Or must every victory be an expected blowout just for this colt and not for others? I recall no "concern" when others won by only a nose, a neck or a length.

Next up in the Tampa Bay Derby. Further Ado now beginning to grow into himself, lost to The Puma in an 8.5-furlong race run in the rain. Those conditions strongly favored speed-dominant horses, and The Puma fits that profile perfectly. Further Ado is not built that way. A horse is never advantaged in every single race, at every distance, or on every track bias. This is Handicapping 101. He is not Flightline - a freak who dominated at every distance on every track.

The Kentucky Derby is run at 10 furlongs, not 8.5. It may or may not rain, but Further Ado still ran true to his build and remained competitive nonetheless in Tampa. Advantages flip as distances and conditions change. The Puma has already shown us where he prefers to be. Keep that in mind.

The Tampa Bay race was not a regression. Further Ado simply faced two clear hindrances: the shorter distance and a speed-favoring wet bias. He returned to more suitable conditions in the Blue Grass Stakes at nine furlongs on a clear, fast track at Keeneland - the exact opposite of what he encountered in Tampa. He demolished them there.

Would The Puma have stood any chance against Further Ado in that nine-furlong Blue Grass rather than the Florida Derby against Commandment? That is the kind of question handicappers must ask when evaluating biases and competition. The stats speak for themselves.

As far as the obnoxious talk of a "bounce" - it's possible but the horse did not overtly expend himself, he simply ran. As good as he is, the extreme lengths that separated him from his competitors were not because he used alot of himself, it was because his competitors paled in comparison. They contributed to that demolition on their own. Again, he is built to sustain his speed. 9f is nothing to him.

Further Ado is arguably the most talented colt in the entire crop. He has proven faster than Ted Noffey under identical conditions and has looked like the “Epicenter” of the season. He will enter the gate at Churchill Downs with a higher natural advantage than most of the field, including The Puma. That does not guarantee a flawless trip - nothing does in the Kentucky Derby - but it is a significant edge worth respecting.

Potente: Losing Can Sometimes Be a Positive Sign

Sometimes an adverse reaction to a defeat is understandable. Watching Potente go to the lead and lose was frustrating, especially after seeing the familiar gate-to-wire Baffert playbook so many times. Still, a few important factors deserve consideration.

Potente is built for 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs. He was not advantaged at nine furlongs on the lead at Santa Anita. The horse better suited to the parameters of that race was the 7.00 son of Liam’s Map, So Happy.

Does finishing second while running against both the bias and his own preferred style mean Potente’s classic build should be discarded for Louisville?

History says hell no.

Tell that to Authentic, who won the Kentucky Derby after Honor A.P. beat him in the Santa Anita Derby in 2020. Advantages switch.

Tell that to Game Winner, who finished well ahead in Kentucky after coming in 2nd to Roadster at Santa Anita in 2019.

Controversially, tell that to Medina Spirit after Rock Your World defeated him in the 2021 Santa Anita Derby. And there are many more.

Sometimes losing a race where parameters contradict a horse’s build is actually a good sign. Rewatching the replay multiple times revealed a horse who still ran one hell of a race.

While the heavily hyped Robusta faded to last trying to keep pace, Potente showed genuine stamina even while fighting his disadvantages.

The real evidence came from how competitive the 2.73 favorite Potente remained against the 7.00 So Happy despite the mismatch in pace and bias. Advantages will change dramatically when the distance stretches to 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs. So Happy may excel on a wetter surface at 10f, but perspective on distance and bias remains essential.

Potente showed he has real speed, highly competitive in that department, but he has a more balanced scale, it is not lop-sided on the speed side. He ran to the latter in the SA Derby and still did well. He will progress off of that effort - if allowed to run his own way.

Potente will have two key factors to overcome: securing an unscathed trip and, just as importantly, Baffert allowing him to run to his own previous successful style rather than forcing another gate-to-wire effort.

(On a side note, with the updated chefs-de-race list, Medina Spirit was actually extremely well built for the 10-furlong Derby. It remains a shame (for the horse) over what ultimately happened there.)

The Mid-Pack and Rear-Runner Advantage

Mid-pack and rear runners have been remarkably successful in recent editions of the Kentucky Derby for two main reasons.

First, a few of the lower rated colts that had drawn into the race were natural speedsters/milers. They often end up on the lead early but lack the stamina to sustain that pace for a full 10 furlongs. The chaos of Derby Day forces them to expend extra energy even before the gates open, leaving them vulnerable. When they disintegrate by the the final turn, mid-pack and rear runners are perfectly positioned to capitalize.

Second, pace scenarios often become extreme. Insane opening fractions have become common since Summer Is Tomorrow’s unrealistic 45.36 half. Trainers with two or three entries can sometimes pursue opportunistic agendas that intentionally (or unintentionally) accelerate the pace.

A clear recent example came in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic, when Chad Brown entered Contrary Thinking primarily as a potential pace aid for Sierra Leone. Fortunately for Sierra, the rabbit was shut out of the lead, and he proved he did not need the extra help in the first place.

This year, Chad has three possible entries: Iron Honor, Ottinho, and Emerging Market at Churchill.

Iron Honor showed off his gate-to-wire speed in the short eight-furlong Gotham.

In the Wood Memorial, he landed up with the lead tier, stalking the pace after getting bumped into the first turn - he faded badly at the 9f distance.

Iron Honor is a speed-dominant colt with two strong 10f barn mates who could benefit a great deal if circumstances allow them to use him as a tactical friend. You just never know.

Any trainer with multiple entries with opposing running styles deserves close scrutiny for the possibility of turning the early pace into a tornado. Such a scenario would benefit all unscathed mid-pack and rear runners - not just those from the same barn. Handicappers must carefully evaluate the true distance limitations of any horse who could be sent to the front early.

And finally, just because a horse shows speed and STAMINA in a 9f race it does not mean he is automatically getting 10f at Churchill. The same people who touted horses like Napoleon Solo on Top Ten Lists and did not let off the gas with it after 8f, (which is what the horse was always bred for) are doing the same exact thing now with the 9f runners. Do not fall for it.

For now, this covers several key observations worth keeping in mind for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. I will publish a second installment with additional points that continue to cut through the noise and help refine your handicapping approach as we head toward May 2nd. There is a lot to discuss, especially with the second tier.