With the Breeders Cup Classic just around the corner, further explanation into how to utilize dosage numbers and balances from the chefs and mares is important. This race pits the very best Classic runners of the year together, in one gate, one track –
a true test of a true champion.
As the last blog article revealed, Breeders Cup Classic Advantages, speed horses and stamina horses always hold the greatest advantages and it is because their balances are basically on an even line.
To further explain the dynamics of this, we will dive into 2 past winners of the Breeders Cup Classic to further illustrate how the numbers are read and how they ultimately depict one and the same even though they fall at the far ends of the speed/stamina spectrum. It will show how their numbers, and their style, ultimately end up giving them close to the same optimum distance and why speed horses and stamina horses will always dominate those average, middle colts.
The Speed Guy:
Vino Rosso has a 3.57 index. This depicts a horse who inherited 3.5 times more speed than stamina from the elite chefs in his first 4 generations. The center of distribution from these chefs gives him an optimum distance (chefs only) of only 8f. That’s it. Most all horses who have chef indexes over 3.00 will naturally have high speed. These types of indexes, over 3.00, will gravitate to a sprinters impulse. They are fast. They inherited more speed characteristics from their important sires. These types of colts will usually always dominate their early short races, however, when you toss the mares into the mix, everything changes.
Chefs Profile = 5-4-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.88
Mares Profile = 5-3-2-9-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.56 Triads = 10-14-19
In Vino’s case, the mares complete set of numbers dominates over the chefs numbers and when combined, turn Vino Rosso into one of the best and evenly balanced machines to ever grace the Breeders Cup Classic.
Again, the chefs CD depicts an optimum of only 8f. When you combine the mares with those chefs, Vino Rosso’s optimum distance skyrockets to 11.15f. His mares contributed a serious amount of stamina and all of this is easily read within those numbers. His chef’s speed stays intact because that is what he was given from those chefs. High speed. Close to sprinters speed. His mares gave him serious stamina with which to sustain that speed as high as 11.15f. Let’s dissect those mare’s numbers:
The five digit profile. 5-3-2-9-8. The numbers read across from short 4-6f all the way over to the last number which is 16f+. This is what his “Reines” or elite mares in his chart passed down as Average Winning Distances to other related offspring. Just glancing across that 5 digit profile, you can clearly and easily see that the numbers are tremendously lopsided to the far right which is the longer distance side. STAMINA distances. The first two numbers (5 and 3) are the Brilliant (4-5-6f) and Intermediate (7-8-9f) numbers. These are SPEED numbers and when you add them up, Vino inherited only 8 total points from his mares in speed. The center number is the Classic distance (10-11-12f). In Vino’s case, he only inherited 2 points in that category, however, that 2 points is perfection for him. It separates the stamina from the speed perfectly, which means that even if some of his high stamina numbers get watered down, they will water down directly into the Classic category which is exactly where he would want it. The final two numbers are the Solid (13-14-15f) and Professional (16f+) categories. Vino would never need to run at those distances, however, all of that crazy mare stamina at those distances combined with his sprinters chef inheritance is a recipe for success. When you add up the final two numbers in his mare’s profile 9+8, it comes to 17. So, his speed inheritance from his mares is only 8 and his stamina inheritance is an extremely high 17. Keep in mind, he has a 3.57 speedy index from his chefs – he didn’t need any more speed from his mares. Too much more and his distance capability would drop significantly.
Looking at the 3 digit triads, which read Speed – Classic – Stamina, quickly and easily, the numbers detail the high strength of stamina.
10-14-19. If that 10 in the first slot was any higher, it would have begun to overload his speed inheritance and his distance capability would drop significantly. You can easily see that the numbers between his chefs (high speed) and his mares (high stamina) balance him perfectly. High speed inheritance with the stamina capability to sustain that speed at a long distance. Again, his numbers get him to 11f because of the stamina that he inherited from those mares.
Vino Rosso is a 3.57 speed horse with the mare stamina to carry him just over 11f.
He won the Breeders Cup Classic in 2019 because he had the best inheritance of balanced speed and stamina on the entire field.
The Stamina Guy:
Drosselmeyer has a 1.75 index. This is a stamina index, below 2.00. This depicts a horse who only inherited 1.75 times more speed than stamina from his chefs. This is exactly half the speed that Vino Rosso inherited from those sires. That is a substantial difference. From his chefs alone, Drosselmeyer inherited the distance capability of 9.4f. That is 1.4 furlongs longer than Vino. Now we add in the mares.
Drosselmeyer was still short in the Classic distance from chefs and because he only inherited 1.7 times the amount of speed over stamina he needed to balance both sides to get to that sweet spot. His mare’s contribution was perfect. As far as the speed side, notice first the higher Mare index. Mare’s indexes are read quite differently than their male counterparts. For chef indexes, 3.00 and over depicts speed. For mares, the speed side begins at approximately .90. In order to understand this, there are many colts who have negative mare indexes, (which is extreme stamina) Once you see a mare index above 1.00, suffice it to say that the mares passes down dominate speed.
In his profile, the 11 in the Solid slot is dominate and there is only 1 point in the classic. Just like Vino Rosso, the stamina end will water down to that Classic slot. Perfection. The 16 points (8+8) in his Intermediate and Brilliant (speed) slots BALANCES out his inherited chef stamina. He NEEDED that speed underneath to balance out that low chef index on top to compete.
In addition to all of that, he still gained 17 points in additional stamina which he needed to add to the 9.2f chef distance. The dominate 11 in the 13-14-15f Solid slot offers him the additional stamina and coupled to what he gained from his chefs puts him at an even line with Vino.
Chefs Profile = 7-2-10-2-1 (22) DI = 1.75 CD = 0.55
Mares Profile = = 8-8-1-11-6 Speed = 16 Stamina = 17 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-20-18
When you combine the CD’s, Drosselmeyer ends up at exactly 10.1f. However, the placement of the 11 points in his Solid Slot will add even more endurance. Most times, speed or stamina will get watered down, but sometimes it does not. In Drosselmeyer’s case, it would appear that he gravitated directly to that dominance and he also gained additional Solid and Professional digits in that Chefs profile as well. You must take those numbers into consideration because those sires are present. When everything is combined, Drosselmeyer’s distance capability skyrockets up to approximately 11.4f.
The additional speed garnered from his mares drops his distance capability down from Vino’s through the combination of the CD’s, however, he needed that extra speed from them to BALANCE HIM OUT. He also needed additional stamina from those mares, which he did receive in order to get him to that Classic Distance. He also gained additional staying power from his chefs above that CD.
Drosselmeyer is a 1.75 index Stamina horse who gained the additional speed from his mares to compete. He only needed to get to 10f, with a higher level of speed and that is exactly the balance he garnered. He actually gained enough additional stamina to an optimum of 11.4f.
His triads read perfectly. 17-20-18. Notice how high (17) that speed slot is. He absolutely positively needed that to enhance his speed below that low 1.75 chef index. That is balance personified.
Drosselmeyer won the 2011 Breeders Cup Classic because he had the perfect balance of speed and stamina.
When you look at the numbers of Vino Rosso, a speed guy, and Drosselmeyer, a stamina guy, you can now see how the dynamics of the numbers put them almost even.
Vino gained his speed from his chefs and his stamina from his mares. This is clear cut and easy to read. Drosselmeyer’s inheritance is opposite. He gained his stamina from his chefs and his speed from his mares, with additional mare stamina as well. Both with the inherited attributes to travel 11f easily and with enough speed to compete. Speed + Stamina = Advantage at 10f.
It is important to understand that the Speed Category guys with Mare stamina and the Stamina guys with Mare speed are almost equal in their balance and this is why they always dominate. When these two separate types have a lead type running style, they will always have the greatest advantage. They are fast and they can keep on going. It doesn’t matter which category they reside in, what matters is if they inherited high speed and high stamina. The more the better. This is why the majority of graded stakes races above 9.5f is won consistently by those who reside in those two categories. They balance out basically the same.
When looking at dosage configurations, every set across each line plays off the next and every number needs to be considered. You cannot simply look at a chef index or simply triads to get to that balance. Each item feeds off the other and the combinations will always get you to the answer.
The questions you need to ask yourself when looking at the combinations are:
1. Does this horse have an extreme amount of inbred speed, chef or mare?
2. Does this horse have enough inbred stamina to sustain all of that speed?
3. Has the horse displayed that speed that he inherited yet?
4. Has the horse displayed a will and determination to lead the pack?
5. Does the horse have an extreme amount of elite sires (chefs) in his chart?
6. Has the horse shown wellness and strength leading up to the big race?
7. Does the horse balance out properly for the distance over 10f?