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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Unveiling Brilliance

Secretariat's Bronze Statue, Lexington KY

As a skillful handicapper, you must know exactly what the horse is holding in his chart from the day of his maiden. This will aid you all the way though his career. It is only then that you could "assume" he will tackle each race as he moved up the ladder in distance.

You cannot do that without it.

A previous beyer figure holds no merit unless the horse is bred to endure the distance and only if he shows speed against the grain of that breeding early on.

For most handicappers, both seasoned and novice, the past performance sheets are the most relied upon tools of the trade. In many cases, an exceptional horse will continue to show his brilliance from one race to the next. In that respect, these sheets are a perfect guide along the way.

An exceptional horse will continue to progress as he moves up the distance ladder. He may also be able to conquer a variety of track biases and also thrive in different weather conditions. With each new race, each new surface and each new distance, reliance on the figures on that PP sheet is quite a risk unless that horse is truly one of the chosen few.

Apparent monsters who demolish their opponents may or may not have the ability to duplicate the same under different circumstances.

One of the biggest downfalls of a handicapper is judging the entries of the race against one another based on their past performance alone. When you really think about it, there is so much conflicting information on those sheets. The only hope that the handicapper has in choosing the correct winner is if the one who appears to have the best figures is truly an exceptional horse who thrives at all distances and all biases.

In other words, if one colt had posted a 100 beyer figure in his previous 8f race and this depicts the very best against his new opponents in his next gate, chances are very high that this horse will be favored on that tote board. Reliance on the PP's and those figures become paramount but, in reality, highly conflicting.

Each entry ran on different biases, possibly different distances and even against different competitors. They train on different surfaces. The only separation between the field traveling a further distance than his last is his breeding. Not every horse has 10f breeding, which means most will certainly hit a wall eventually, occurring just after his last explosion.

If you do not know how the colts are bred, you are handicapping blindly.

Let's say we have a Maiden Winner who went 5.5f at Pimlico traveling Gate to Wire and then he came back to repeat the same 5.5f distance, Gate to Wire, winning by 8 lengths in an allowance race:

If you did not consult his numbers after those two incredible and flashy wins, you would look at his fast beyer and continue to bet on this eventual "favorite" - possibly even putting a few bucks on him in a Futures Pool. That would be money thrown directly into the trashcan - depending on his BREEDING.

If the horse had numbers like this:

DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 9-5-3-6-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.13 Triads = 17-14-16

He should perform at 5.5f like a speed demon on fire. He should post a high beyer and he should be fast out of that gate, on the lead and demolishing the field by 8 lengths. As soon as he hits 9f, he disintegrates and you lost your futures bet because you didn't know his breeding capability and when he would hit that wall.

Let's say the horse who demolished his first two 5.5f races had these KILLER configurations instead:

Chefs: DP = 9-14-18-3-0 (44) DI = 2.67 CD = 0.66

Mare Profile = 5-6-4-8-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.71 Triads = 15-18-20

At 5.5f, speed demons on a speedy bias will have exceptional advantage. The numbers you see above depict 10.75f. These are not sprinting numbers by any stretch. With 44 points in his chefs profile, he would have the potential to be skillful at all distances across the board, traveling the same speed. This type would be one who can post any beyer he wants along the way, and you can have complete confidence in your handicapping that he would be able to replicate it with each distance increment. If you don't see a translation IN HIS BREEDING from the start, you cannot assume the he can hold that speed on any track at any distance.

These numbers in that chefs profile, across the board, show superiority in every distance slot. They balance to an average 2.67 index with a very low .66 CD. Standout configurations for a 5.5f win - gate to wire.

When a maiden winner runs against his breeding, you do not need to even consult the PP's - you simply bet the horse each and every time he enters a gate.

Those killer configurations actually belong to SPECTACULAR BID. He broke his maiden at Pimlico traveling gate to wire at only 5.5f and then did a repeat in his next Allowance. The rest is history.

Take a look at this chart starting from the bottom and work your way up. Understanding the magic of these numbers will allow the handicapper to grab ahold of a future Champion and single him all the way through. The numbers will always unveil brilliance early on. They will separate the players from the pretenders, only if you take the time to consult them.


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