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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Top Winning Configurations




In an attempt to stay on track and remain disciplined this year, it is important to truly grasp what type of breeding WINS in the Kentucky Derby. Wins. Walks into that Winners Circle. When presented with a field of 20 colts who all did something magical to gain their gate, we all circle the field going over the pros and cons. But one thing is consistent year after year, each category will present the same balance in the winner every single time. The numbers will present the winner.


Broken down into their categories below are the winners of the last 20 years. If you look at the configurations of the past winners within each separate category, each one resembles the next. Each one has that standout balance and set-up that continues to grace the winner's circle throughout the years. In keeping with the historical value of these incredible numbers and how they work in this particular race, it becomes much easier to see the broader picture as it relates to our present runners. After each set is categorized and presented, I have added the 2021 Contender who correlates best to those winners. This is probably the easiest way to describe the reasons why I say what I say in the analysis. I will admit that I am not the best writer, so this article should help you see things with the evidence instead of the words. It will allow you to understand why I break them into categories and it will help you in connecting with these amazing numbers. You can visually see exactly how these past configurations consistently won within each category year after year and how they always ultimately pointed to their speed/stamina balance utilizing both the chefs and the mares combined.


Pay attention to the configurations of both sets of numbers, and in particular, the point spread in their mares speed/stamina balance and the set-up of their triads. They all correlate. They are all consistently the same within their specific category. The chefs place them into their specific category. The mares tell you where they are going and if they even have a shot to get into that famous Winners Circle.


It is wise sometimes to go back and re-read what it was and what stood out that turned a single Derby Contender among the packed field of 20 into the eventual winner. The three old articles: DERBY QUALITY SPEED - MIDRANGE - STAMINA are all worth a quick re-read before you settle on your bets. Those 3 articles describe why their past performances were telling us little secrets along the way and how their inheritance took them across the finish line. Remember, the numbers never lie. They all held the tell-tale signs and revealed their superiority in both their performances and the configurations of their numbers before the bell. This is about WINNING CONFIGURATIONS – not board hit configurations. This is all about what it takes in inheritance to get into that winner’s circle. These winners go back 20 years.


STAMINA CATEGORY:


2011 Animal Kingdom

DP = 2-0-6-0-0 (8) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 3-4-5-11-6 Speed = 7 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.54 Triads = 12-20-22


2008 Big Brown

DP = 4-7-23-2-0 (36) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.36

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-10-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.84 Triads = 16-21-20


2003 Funny Cide

DP = 7-2-11-3-1 (24) DI = 1.53 CD = 0.46

Mare Profile = 5-5-1-11-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.67 Triads = 11-17-18

2001 Monarchos

DP = 2-2-13-1-0 (18) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.28

Mare Profile = 4-3-6-7-5 Speed = 7 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.74 Triads = 13-16-18


Who hits these winning Stamina numbers in 2021?



SAINTHOOD

DP = 4-2-5-3-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 5-3-6-8-11 Speed = 8 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.53 Triads = 14-17-25


In all of the winners above, each one had a distinctly low number in the first slot of their triads and it gradually ascended up to the high stamina end. Each one had a major spread in the Mare Speed/Stamina Balance that shifts all the way over to the stamina end. Huge point spread between the two. Both the Classic slot and the High Stamina slot of the triads were packed (Monarchos not as much but still higher none-the-less. Sainthood is the only contender in the 2021 Derby that is holding historically proper winning configurations in the Stamina category this year. His configurations match the balance of each Derby WINNER who fell into the stamina category over the last 20 years. This does not mean he is a lock, it means to win the Derby if the colt comes from this category, his configurations should be on par with those who made it to the wire first.




Midrange Category:

2019 COUNTRY HOUSE

DP = 5-7-11-1-0 (24) DI = 2.69 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 4-6-2-10-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.53 Triads = 12-18-21

2012 I'll Have Another

DP = 2-4-7-1-0 (14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 6-5-1-10-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.67 Triads = 12-16-19

2007 Street Sense

DP = 8-1-12-0-1 (22) DI = 2.14 CD = 0.68

Mare Profile = 3-7-1-13-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.58 Triads = 11-21-19

2006 Barbaro

DP = 14-8-21-2-1 (46) DI = 2.41 CD = 0.70

Mare Profile = 4-4-5-8-6 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.68 Triads = 13-17-19


Who hits these winning Midrange numbers in 2021?


ROCK YOUR WORLD

DP = 3-4-8-1-0 (16) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.56

Mare Profile = 2-3-4-7-8 Speed = 5 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.41 Triads = 9-14-19


Was there ever any doubt who that would have been? This is why I gave him 10 stars. Even though there hasn't been many Mid-range winners over the last 20 years, one thing is for certain - when they come around, they stand out like a sore thumb. All of the previous Winners from the Mid-range Category ALL had a substantial point spread leaning all the way over to the stamina side. They all have a hefty 6 to 9 point spread (which depicts major stamina) underneath their disadvantaged 2.00 to 2.90 index. Every one of them. Each one had an obvious low number in the first slot of their triads, and then ascended to the third major slot, depicting serious stamina. The only 2021 contender from the Mid-range category with these winning configurations is Rock Your World. As a matter of fact, Rock Your World has the greatest amount of inbred stamina out of all of those past winners. His numbers actually exceed those above. To have this guy on the lead or stalking close to the front is a gift that cannot be denied.


THE SPEED CATEGORY

In this category, the winners have competed and won on both a clean track and a sloppy track and they still all have the same type of balance. Just so you understand the missing horses, I am leaving Baffert’s colts out of this article. He has trained winners in the speed category consistently over the last 20 years, both on the sloppy track and the clean track, and none of his runners correspond to the dosage numbers that work properly in the Kentucky Derby going back even further than 20 years. Many of the speedy winners of these more recent Derby editions have come from his barn and they are skewed, off kilter, and irregular. This is the reason why I can’t and won’t analyze any of his colts any more. They make no sense and only Baffert can tell us why. Well, I take that back, he doesn't need to tell us, we already know. Therefore, I am intentionally leaving them out in order to keep the purity and perfection of these numbers true. Plus, if I don't take them out, Brian will start cursing again! :)


2017 ALWAYS DREAMING (sloppy)

DP = 3-5-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.92

Mare Profile = 3-8-3-7-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.77 Triads = 14-18-16


2016 NYQUIST

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 7-1-7-7-6 Speed = 8 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.85 Triads = 15-15-20


2014 CALIFORNIA CHROME

DP = 7-9-14-0-0 (30) DI = 3.29 CD = 0.77

Mare Profile = 11-4-3-4-12 Speed = 15 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.94 Triads = 18-11-19


2013 ORB (sloppy track - 40 points, triads do not matter)

DP = 11-12-15-0-2 (40) DI = 3.21 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-2-2-5-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.67 Triads = 11-9-17


2009 MINE THAT BIRD (sloppy)

DP = 8-7-9-0-0 (24) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.96

Mare Profile = 4-7-4-10-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.73 Triads = 15-21-20


2004 SMARTY JONES (sloppy)

DP = 10-7-12-1-0 (30) DI = 3.29 CD = 0.87

Mare Profile = 11-2-3-5-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.90 Triads = 16-10-19


2002 WAR EMBLEM

DP = 9-4-8-1-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.95

Mare Profile = 10-1-6-7-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.08 Triads = 17-14-19


2000 FUSAICHI PEGASUS

DP = 22-10-24-0-0 (56) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.96

Mare Profile = 4-6-5-10-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.70 Triads = 15-21-21


Who hits these winning Speed numbers in 2021?


O BESOS

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.81

Mare Profile = 4-4-6-5-9 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.62 Triads = 14-15-20


All of the previous winners on a clean or a sloppy track had a chefs index above 3.20. (Except Baffert's horses) They all had a mare balance tilted to stamina. (Except Baffert horses) (Chrome’s a bit low but still greater on the stamina side). At the moment, O Besos does not have a gate, which means that there is not one Speed contender on the field right now that hits the perfect note with any on that past winners list in his configurations. Mandaloun is just too high in both the chef and mare index. Soup and Sandwich is so damn close, he is just one notch off. Like the King is almost there too, but his are better board hit numbers. Now do you see why I was so high on Panadol as a live longshot? This is why Essential Quality is extremely vulnerable for the win here. That 3.00 index of his is harsh for a win in the Derby. If things stay the same on this field, the probability that a speed horse does not win this Derby this year is very high. But then again, Baffert does have a contender with a 3.00 index and sporting a negative point spread in the mare balance. But that's par for the course. LITERALLY!

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