Top 5 Derby Hopefuls


Cruel Intention and Galilean

The two year old season has come and gone and below is the list of what appears to be the top 5 hopefuls as far as breeding for the 10f Kentucky Derby to date. This does not mean that each of these 5 will crush every prep along the way. It means that at 10f against a field of 20 at Churchill in May, they have the best breeding for the job as we close 2018 and they will have a greater advantage in that specific race.


CRUEL INTENTION

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.70

Mare Profile = 4-8-3-10-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.83 Triads = 15-21-18


The bottom of this guy’s chart is wonderful but what truly makes his numbers stand out is that .70 CD sitting next to that 4.00 chef index. The configuration of his chef’s profile has shades of Always Dreaming, however the balance and blending gives him much more stamina than Always Dreaming could have kept dreaming always about. The entire mares profile underneath the chefs blends so harmoniously and perfectly for both rain and sun. Cruel has gone 2 for 2 at 6f and 7f so far at Santa Anita which should be expected from a colt bred like this. He has not been asked to show off his mare stamina yet, but he does have it in abundance so this is a guy who must be watched to see if he does indeed favor the higher amount of reines in his chart over the few chefs that he has. This should be a given in this case, however, all we need to do is watch and observe to get the answer.

If this guy can lean himself to the bottom of that chart there should be no worry for him at Churchill. If the rain gods appear that day as well he should be thanking his lucky stars.


CODE OF HONOR

DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = 0.00

Mare Profile = 2-10-2-13-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-25-20


There is absolutely ZERO question that this monster can tackle the 10f even if he ran backwards. Regardless of anything that you may read anywhere on the internet, his breeding is perfection personified for the distance. The way his numbers come together and balance out between his mares and sires gives him the highest degree of advantage in the ability to sustain his wicked speed even further than 10f. Chefs are singled out and titled because of the documented ability to pass certain qualifying traits and distances. Every Chef within the first 4 generations must be taken into account. Each chef contributes his share and these traits are blended together to fall upon the optimum distance of the colt. From all of his chefs combined (one is never more important than the other), Code of Honor’s optimum distance is exactly 11f.


The speed that he has is coming directly from the dominating average winning distances of his mares stakes-winning offspring, which is depicted in the 10 in his Intermediate spot and the 13 in the Solid slot. Not only is a colt a product of more than just his immediate sire and grandsire, he is a product of every chef and every reine in his first 4 generations. When they meld together they balance each other or they add to each other or they steal from each other. The numbers represent the optimums. The structure depicts the answer. In Code of Honor’s case, that melding couldn’t be any finer and that answer couldn't be any more concrete.


It is important to also mention a few other things here. Code of Honor is a bona-fide stamina horse. As of late, these types hit the board and find it difficult to pass the higher speed indexed colts on the field. This could be because many editions have been run on a sloppy track but there have been times when stamina does in fact prevail. The other important item here is that Mohawk, Japan and Magna Grecia from the European early Derby preps rival Code of Honor as well as far as breeding is concerned. Code of Honor not only has the advantage with his breeding against most in the States, he also has the advantage over his cousins across the sea. He is a serious threat should he secure a gate in Kentucky.


INSTAGRAND

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 5-8-5-11-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.05 Triads = 18-24-19


Just like Audible from last year, this guy is all about his mares. I had originally made the mistake of looking at Instagrand's 5th generation and noting his chef Halo, but that was incorrect. Danzig in his 4th generation is the Intermediate/Classic chef which is the only Chef present in his profile. The .50 CD next to his 3.00 index is spectacular, however other unlisted sires should burst into that mix even though undetectable within the numbers themselves. This leaves his chefs numbers quite questionable as to where everything actually falls but it does put much more emphasis on his mares. This is excellent for him, as his mares configurations are spectacular for the Derby. The triads are so good. Even amount of speed and stamina coupled with dominance in the Classic distance. All he really needs are those mares to see his way for the 10f.


The chef profile itself falls to left and this depicts an extremely high amount of speed on top. But enter the mares. High 1.05 Index dumps even more speed on him which will be hard to top and those triads will keep him going well into the stretch, especially in the rain. A board hit prospect if ever there was one.


IMPROBABLE

DP = 12-9-13-0-0 (34) DI = 4.23 CD = 0.97

Mare Profile = 6-6-4-7-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-17-18


Another high on speed, similar to Bolt D’Oro from last year, (but holding a boatload of even more speed), however Bolt was nowhere near packing the configurations of the mare’s numbers. This is the number one important thing that separates the speedsters from the sustainers. The first number in the triads is low and that right there is what should be able to see Improbable down that stretch in the Derby. The way each of those triad numbers climb one step up towards stamina is fantastic. The only slight negative is that it would have been a slam dunk had that last number been even one step higher. An extra point or two separating his speed over his stamina would have been ideal especially on a clean track. He will have no problems on a sloppy track but on a clean track he may just fall just one step below his major competition.


GALILEAN

DP = 7-7-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 9-2-5-7-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.83 Triads = 16-14-21


This guy has a shot to be a player mainly due to the 9 points he received in the Brilliant category of his mares profile. It takes speed to win the Derby and enough stamina to sustain it. The stamina portion is there from both the top and bottom but his CD drags his speed inheritance down a bit and his mares definitely overshadow it with the 5 point spread between the inherited speed vs stamina structure. He needed a punch of speed to compliment that 3.00 index in order to compete alongside his peers who are packing an extreme degree of chef’s speed. He received it from a few dominating sprinting mares in his chart and it looks as though there are enough to dissipate the watering down (they will get watered down, but not as bad as it could have been). When adding together the sprinting and intermediate speed from his chefs there couldn’t be a nicer affect. The 5 point spread in the mares speed vs stamina inheritance is fantastic. It appears that should he gain access to a gate in Kentucky, he would fare much better on a clean track but he may relinquish any advantage he has in the rain. However, there is something to be said about a horse who appears to be favoring the speed he inherited this early in the game. If he can keep that up consistently as the distances stretch and not allow his dominant stamina from the mares to take completely over, this guy would be a gem for the Derby either way.



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