The Stamina Category – NADAL
No matter how hard you look, you will not find a single fault in this horse. His undefeated record. He won traveling 6.5 furlongs on the tough Saratoga track. He won on the slick track at Gulfstream. He wins wire to wire going short. He wins stalking on a wet track. He wins wire to wire at 1 -1/16th. He sits back and wins at 9f. These wins do not come easily from just any stamina horse, but they come easily from him. This guy was personally given a 5 star rating after the Rebel Stakes where he demolished the field on a sloppy track. The performances of this colt couldn't be any more impressive and for a stamina competitor in the Kentucky Derby - Nothing comes close.
Chefs: 3-11-15-2-1 (32) Index = 2.05 CD = .41
Mares: 6-7-2-6-12 Speed = 13 Stamina = 18 Index = .66 Triads = 15-15-20
Every time I look these numbers and couple them with his past performances I am left in awe of this horse’s talent. What is so striking is the fact that he lacks in short early speed inheritance and yet he wins 6.5f races and he demolishes his opponents in the rain. He doesn’t even have to try. When calculated, his mare’s CD falls at a negative .13 and when combined with his chefs leaves him with the potential to run handily up to 11.7f. The distance is almost secondary with this guy. His displayed speed is what is so magnificent with a colt bred like this. There is not one horse on the Derby Trail that comes close to every positive signal for complete dominance in the Kentucky Derby. He can wire the field as fast or as slow as he wants and he could do it blind-folded. Even the fact that he has a loaded 32 points in his chef’s profile is pointing to a colt who has every quality you could ask for. The icing on the cake is that his St. Simon percentage is pushing 30%. They can’t beat him. He is stacked in the Intermediate and Classic distances and the mares are completely dominant in the Professional category. His configurations are lethal and they are the very best among the competitors so far.
As of now, he has only one peer sitting with him in that stamina category and he happens to have an impeccable stamina configuration.
Chefs: 6-0-13-5-2 (26) Index = .93 CD = .12
Mares: 4-9-5-9-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = .92 Triads = 18-23-19
This guy truly has a beautiful set-up. The speed is coming from his mares, the stamina more dominant from the chefs. The balance is perfect. He will sit on the bottom of the entire spectrum on the field which means Sole Volante will be holding the highest amount of stamina on the entire field. This bodes well when there is stamina lacking in the speed category and as of today, that is exactly what is happening in that speed category. If things remain the same, his breeding will make him a contender. His past performances are commendable for a stamina driven colt and he has never fallen off of that board in his 5 races. This guy even won on the wet turf traveling only 7.5f to break his maiden. This guy has everything in his back pocket to hit that board in the Kentucky Derby. He does not appear to have what it takes to beat the great Nadal.
THE 2020 Kentucky Derby PLAYERS:
Stamina Category - Nadal (and possibly Sole Volante)
Average Category - Maxfield
Speed Category: Tiz the Law (and possibly Authentic) (Eight Rings to be revisited)
The main players for the 2020 Kentucky Derby as far as breeding is concerned are the 5 guys listed above. These five guys would be perfect for the normal May race at Churchill running 10f. Since we are now dealing with extra months, the certainty that the breeding characteristics for 10f distance stays intact, however, how the bias plays in favor of the separate categories is in the air.
Without the need to go on with a major analysis, there is one horse out the five that has absolutely no question on any aspect that would possibly affect his advantage in September. Health aside - no matter what the bias presents, no matter what gate he runs from, no matter who matures quicker, and no matter if the horse happens to break badly, his advantage will remain.
Nadal is the Kentucky Derby horse this year. Not simply because he is a stamina guy who runs out on the lead. Not simply because he is undefeated. Not simply because he is a monster. The main reason why is because the speed category (so far) has not presented a contender who is balanced properly and who carries an unquestionable amount of stamina to sustain his wicked speed. At this point, each speed guy has questionable 10f capability. Tapit is Tiz the Law's saving grace.
The Speed Guy: We cannot easily rely on the second generation Tapit factor with Tiz the Law. It could happen but it is not set in stone. He would absolutely need to be part of the superfecta line-up because of that factor, but he cannot be relied on in any spot across the board. Stamina has the advantage in the Derby this year because the Speed category is much more closely aligned with the 9f Belmont and the Preakness this year. It is very iffy for the Derby. Not enough mare stamina to go around.
The Average Guy: Maxfield is magnificent and he will be flying on the far outside, passing horses one by one as he nears that stretch. It would take a small miracle to pass the speed and stamina of Nadal who will no doubt be positioned far ahead of him. Nadal will never hit a wall traveling 10f. Maxfield never passes Nadal. To have a player in that mid-range category who has the serious power to beat speed in his shorter races shows an extremely talented and special animal. To even hit the board in the Kentucky Derby with a horse who had to undergo ankle surgery is a feather in Street Sense's cap.
The Stamina Guy: Stamina, at this time, has the clear advantage in the Kentucky Derby this year and everything is pointing to Nadal as the superior animal with every characteristic squarely in place.
It would take an absolute beast to change this line-up before September.