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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

The Second Tier - Part 1 of 2

The odds of holding a winning superfecta ticket in the Kentucky Derby is 116,280 to 1 with a 20 horse field.

Even if you spent $400 on your $1.00 chance, this would only give you 400 combinations at 115,880 to 1.

This underscores the importance of looking past opinions, including my own, and digging as deep as you can with those that are less obvious than the top tier.

Unlike the past, this year did not produce one or two monsters to grab ahold of early. The two original superstars are missing in action. When the bulk of "Derby Handicappers" out there are able to jump aboard at the tail end of the preps, as they usually do, we were able to secure those tell-tale signs prior to the bigger preps, but that, my friends, does us no good this year.

The bandwagon has been set within the last couple of weeks and the odds on the favored few will be chopped and the pools will be greatly influenced among the more obvious.

There is only one horse who can win the Derby out of the field of 20. In reality, each contender blindly walks into the gate at 20-1 odds. Evenly spread, each horse has a 1 in 20 chance of winning. When you begin to peel away the layers, that 1 in 20 starts to dwindle down immensely.

Take away those not equipped for the distance.

Take away those not set-up for the bias.

Take away those who pull a bad post.

Take away any in case of adversity to ultimate weather.

Once you begin doing this, that 20-1 begins to drop to maybe 8-1 for the win, assuming there are 8 live horses who match all of the favored criteria.

This is still radically too high. Imagine using 8 horses in a superfecta across the board - you're looking at plunking down $1,680.00 for a 1.00 chance, which still leaves 114,600 other combinations that can beat you.

The only way to secure odds in your favor is to peel every piece of evidence from each colt and studying exactly what would give them favor. You must dive into them all in order to put yourself in the best position to capitalize.

The top players, those that will consume the headlines from now until Derby Day are obvious. In normal fashion, every layer of these colts will be scrutinized across the coming weeks here at the club. As you browse the internet, you will read about the same ones over and over again, as they discuss their favorite, past figures and what previous race they won.

It may easily turn out that a combo of Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, Kingsbarns, Practical Move and Forte fill out the superfecta this year. Boxing those 5 would only cost $120.00 for a 1.00 ticket. Not only would that winning ticket be split eight ways to Sunday, but the odds of each one securing the perfect trip, the perfect post, a clean run, alignment with the weather and the bias and ability to accept any pace structure would have too many variables.

In addition, this still leaves you fighting against 116,160 other possible winning combinations. The goal, as is the case every year here at the Club, is a relentless pursuit of constructing the perfect superfecta ticket with the minimum of cost and highest profit outlook. The best suited for the exact specifications that align with every specific criteria presented to us on the evening of May 6th at Churchill Downs.

It is the less obvious of the group that will beat you in the end in a superfecta bet. The Fourth Horse.

Recall those who slammed themselves into that superfecta in previous years.

Rich Strike at 80-1, Mr. Big News at 46-1, Country House at 65-1, Instilled Regard at 85-1, Lookin at Lee at 33-1, Battle of Midway at 40-1, etc.

Looking back, with the exception of Mr. Big News, (who by the way was holding the absolute perfect Derby Configurations), were pointed out as players based on history and their configurations. The following players will be top priority over the obvious. The type of scrutiny that separates a losing ticket from a winning ticket. Several of the following may be easily tossed, however, it is best to exhaust all research, as several are not as easily disposed - not by a longshot.

Two Phil's - DP = 2-7-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 3-4-8-8-5 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.69 Triads = 15-20-21

Reincarnate - DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70

Mare Profile = 6-5-5-7-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 16-17-20

Derma Sotogake - DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 8-2-5-9-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-20

Hit Show - DP = 2-5-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 6-2-4-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.69 Triads = 12-12-18

Rocket Can - DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-7-7-8-2 Speed = 12 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.26 Triads = 19-22-17

Confidence Game - DP = 2-3-10-1-0 (16) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.38

Mare Profile = 2-2-7-4-9 Speed = 4 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.45 Triads = 11-13-20

Mage - DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19

Blazing Sevens - DP = 3-6-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-6-6-6-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.73 Triads = 17-18-21

Continue to Part Two.


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