The Overseas Road to the Derby Opens Up

2024 Saudi Derby - Forever Young

With Forever Young's gallant victory in this year's Breeder's Cup Classic, the overseas Kentucky Derby Hopefuls may start to get the respect they deserve.

Up until this year, the opportunities to gain recognition and Derby points for a gate in Kentucky were quite limited, all in pursuit of a gate in the UAE Derby to gain those 100 points for the winner.

The opening bell for the overseas preps began with the Beresford Stakes in Curragh, the Juddmonte Royal Lodge at New Market, the Jean Luc-Legardere at Longchamp and the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. These four overseas Derby Preps, performed on a turf surface, never served as any type of stepping stone into the Kentucky Derby.

The only real purpose with those races, year after year, is to get a glimpse into the rising stars within Aiden O'Brien's two year old barn. As usual, expect to see at least one or two major emerging superstars arise from Aiden's well-trained turf brigade, none of which would be pointed to Churchill Downs in May.

For the Kentucky Derby, the Overseas Road will technically truly begin with the Cattleya Sho at Tokyo Racecourse, (this year scheduled for November 29th) however, the promise of 10-5-3-2-1 in points barely scrapes the surface of what is needed.

Therefore, a persistent trainer would need to intentionally shoot for maybe the Zen Nippon (20 points to winner) or the Hyacinth Stakes (30 points to the winner) and/or the Fukyuru (40 points to the winner).

Realistically though, their fates fall to just one race, the UAE Derby at the end of March, which could catapult one of these contenders across the ocean and straight into Louisville.

Japan's exceptional runner, Le Vent Se Leve, headed for glory to compete in the UAE Derby after slamming the 2017 Zen Nippon and 2nd in the 2018 Fukyuru (with injury), never made it out of Japan to compete on the bigger stages. Mendelssohn actually lucked out with Le Vent's unfortunate injury-plagued fate.

Long recoveries saw him return back to the track undefeated all the way up to the Champions Cup. No Kentucky Derby for him that year, one of the best and most exciting Dirt Runners Japan ever had. I daresay, one who ranked on par with Forever Young.

The monster Lemon Pop demolished the field in his 2020 Cattleya Derby prep, but the connections kept him safe in Japan, winning race after race on his home turf. Lemon Pop wanted no parts of Meydan anyway.

There is no guarantee that the best 2 year old dirt runners in Japan see the path leading to the UAE Derby. Winning the Cattleya or the Fukyuru is exciting for us but sadly, injuries or the connections opting elsewhere, change the scenery for that 100 point gate in Meydan.

Back in 2015, Lani took the Cattleya Sho and Hyacinth route to the UAE Derby and somehow secured his win in Meydan to make the trip and try his luck in the Derby. The quirky horse managed a 9th place trophy there.

Without the UAE Derby, most of these potential Japanese superstars would be widely unknown to the USA, giving only a potential of 14 starters a shot at traveling to participate for a chance at those roses. In addition, the race opens itself up to dirt runners from other countries as well, which means that Japan could in fact get shut out regardless of any previous points gained.

Stars like Rebel's Romance, Mendelssohn, Thunder Snow, Mubtaahij, Toast of New York, Lines of Battle, etc., thwarted the Japanese hopefuls in their respective years, regardless of any (minimal) points they may have gained previously.

But now, things have finally opened up and the opportunities have at least widened.

Enter the UAE 2000 Guineas in Meydan on January 23rd (20 points), the Saudi Derby on February 14th (30 points) and the Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby in Meydan on February 20th (20 points).

On their own, they wouldn't really amount to much as far as enough points, however, it does open up more possibilities to the trainers in terms of gaining extra points in more prep races in anticipation for the UAE Derby, plus it gives us a broader range to track even more contenders. They become more apt to travel now to the tracks handing out Derby points as opposed to staying put and waiting for that one race at the end of March.

Thunder Snow won the UAE 2000 Guineas in 2017 which set him up for the perfect form in his UAE Derby winning performance. Unfortunately, the diva horse refused to run on the sloppy track in Kentucky but went on to become a 16+ million dollar earner for Godolphin.

In 2023, Forever Young won the 20 point Zen Nippon then went on to capture the 2024 Saudi Derby in a record smashing time of 1:36.17. Just like Thunder Snow, his prep led to an exciting win in the UAE Derby and eventually to a 3rd place trophy in the Kentucky Derby. Derma Sotogake also competed in the Saudi Derby as a prep for the UAE, 3rd place trophy there translated to a win in the UAE Derby.

The 2025 Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby Stakes race, formerly known as the Al Bastakiya, was won by Mubtaahij back in 2015 after his 2nd place finish in the 2000 Guineas. This led to his win in the UAE Derby and enough points to try his luck at Churchill Downs. 8th place there and 4th place in the Belmont.

Last year, Heart of Honor took 2nds across the board in the 2000 Guineas, the Al Bastakiya and the heartbreaking nose loss to Admire Daytona in the UAE. Both horses competed in our Triple Crown.

With these races now designated as points qualifiers for the Kentucky Derby, more opportunities begin to open up for these talented overseas horses who thrive on dirt surfaces. Much more significant is the opportunity to track them with much more ease and precision this year regardless of which country they originate.

The next overseas Derby prep will be the Cattleya Sho on November 29th at Tokyo Racecourse. This will be our first glimpse into these talented horses and we'll see what Yoshito Yahagi and Hiroyasu Tanaka has in store for us next.