The New Chefs-de-Race and Moving Forward

After the initial shock of seeing Dr. Steven Roman back in action - right where he belongs - after nearly ten years of silence, I just couldn’t settle down. I had to jump right in.

From the very beginning back in 2018, everything at the Dirty Horse Club has centered around Dr. Roman’s deep research and that incredible list of Chefs-de-Race he generously gave to the horseracing world.

When the big changes dropped a couple of days ago, I’ll admit it felt overwhelming at first. I stayed up late pulling out all my old binders, trying to wrap my head around it all. And honestly? What’s happened is huge.

Our process always started with the Chef configurations that Dr. Roman left us back in 2016. That is exactly how it will continue.

Then we’d go to his older list of Prominent Non-Chefs and tweak the numbers so we didn’t accidentally leave out any sire he’d recognized but had yet to canonize.

A couple of years later, we began adding in the ANZ Chefs (the ones recognized in Australia and New Zealand) and this basically helped fold in a lot of those Non-Chefs for us. It made it easier to spot and factor in extra speed or stamina outside of the Chefs list but still on the brink. Well, those days are over.

We don’t need to keep checking Dr. Roman’s outdated Prominent Non-Chef list anymore, and the ANZ numbers aren’t necessary either. The Conduit Mare Configurations stay exactly as they were.

As we move forward, a few things are already starting to click into place - even this early on.

With 24 new Chefs now added, and quite a few of them showing up right away in the first or second generations, it’s starting to make a lot more sense.

We’re getting back to what felt right in the past here at the DHC. It is returning to those loaded profiles built on top of serious mare stamina and those strong conduit mare lines.

Dr. Roman said it so well when he answered that question I asked him about mare profiles. He explained:

“A conduit mare, in Tesio’s framework, would amplify the effective weight of her sire’s influence in the pedigree. That means a chef-de-race appearing through a conduit mare might punch above his statistical weight in Dosage terms. Conversely, a chef-de-race filtered through a non-conduit mare might contribute less to the actual horse than the Dosage arithmetic suggests. In either case, chefs-de-race definitely do not ignore the influence of mares.”

Now I see, having more conduit mares in the chart (depicted within the packed triads) would in fact boost the chances that even more Chefs would definitely come through those mares and “punch above their statistical weight."

Common sense!!! So easy and yet the concept evaded me. Magnificent.

When I look at the historical patterns - both with Roman's configurations and the conduit mares - it finally explains why those loaded triads have always been so powerful, especially when it comes to Kentucky Derby winners. It just makes complete sense.

Another big shift is that we no longer have to manually note 1st or 2nd generation Tapit next to the mares’ numbers. Tapit is now built straight into the colt’s profile. No more special adjustments needed.

That realization hit me like a lightbulb after just a bit of digging.

We all know Tapit offspring in the first and second generations have struggled in the Derby but often shine in the 12-furlong Belmont.

Looking at Derby history, their mare profiles - especially the triads - have usually been way off for the parameters found within the "quicker" 10 furlongs at Churchill as opposed to the more rational and steady pace of the 12f Belmont. They just didn’t line up in Louisville, and that still remains true even with the new updated chef list. (That’s a whole separate article, and I’ll get to it after the Derby.)

I went back and looked at about twenty of those horses that attempted to win the roses, using their updated Chef numbers. The mares’ lines, particularly the triads, were almost always too light and completely off as compared to what’s worked historically on the First Saturday in May. (The 12f Belmont, a different story with different parameters.)

Those under-par, unbalanced, tilted profiles never fit what is crucial for Derby success. Overlooking that was not the answer. Moving forward, we don't have to.

Now we have new Masters of the Breed with Into Mischief, Candy Ride, Speightstown, Uncle Mo, More Than Ready, Street Cry, Quality Road, Medaglia d’Oro, Empire Maker, and a few others which will now be custom built right into the profiles.

Finally, we have a much cleaner, more accurate way to compare the new to what has consistently worked in the past. The hotshots will stand out even more clearer than ever before.

There is alot of work up ahead to get in line with these recent developments and once I finish updating the configurations for every Derby winner over the decades, I’m confident we’ll see the exact same strong patterns holding up, even more enhanced - with those same packed mare configurations and with even tighter connections than before.

We'll ease into it, of course the timing of these developments was not the greatest for us here at the club. Everything has revolved around what we had through the Prep season. The confidence remains with that but would it rise even stronger if we rush to implement now? Of course, 27 days prior to the one race that we worked all season for. That's my luck!

I'll do what I can to upgrade with the changes as fast as possible. History never lies and Dr. Roman's numbers never lie so, we'll do what we can in the short span that we have remaining prior to Post Time.

I had often thought that we had seen the end of the magnificent standout configurations of the past, watching them dwindle down into oblivion, but now, that is not the case. Dr. Roman has breathed new life back into the Dirty Horse and I am so excited for the adventure ahead.

Oh, and by the way, Iron Honor finally has some Chefs in his profile!

With about 30 days left, my plan is to go back through all the previous Derby winners, update their numbers, lock in that consistent common thread, and see exactly where this year’s field stacks up.

The DHC isn’t going anywhere, not now! It actually feels like "The Past" is making a comeback. We’re stepping into the clearest, most complete and comprehensive picture we’ve had in over a decade. Onward!