The Jerome Stakes 2026 - Ending the Curse?

The Aqueduct Racetrack is scheduled to permanently close in 2026, with its final day of racing planned for June 28, 2026. The Derby Trail will look different next year, but there is still one more chance to go here.

The new and Modern Belmont Park will take the reigns for New York.

This will be the final opportunity for a winner exiting the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct to finally make some noise in the Kentucky Derby.

Needless to say, the historical results from Aqueduct and their significance in terms of style and breeding from the Champagne, Remsen, Jerome, Gotham and the Wood will be obsolete.

Different bias, of course, will be advantageous to different breeding when held at a different track. This is it for Aqueduct.

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The Jerome Stakes, one of America's oldest races dating back to 1866, serves as the traditional January kickoff to New York's Kentucky Derby prep series. Contested at one mile at Aqueduct, this $150,000 event awards only 10 Derby points to the winner.

The last Jerome winner to secure a Kentucky Derby starting gate was Firenze Fire back in 2018, and he finished a distant 11th in the race.

Vyjack back in 2013 also won the Jerome and starred in a gate in Kentucky. He only managed 18th place. That's it.

This drought has fueled perceptions of the race as somewhat overhyped as a true Derby launching pad, with many winners shining brightly in January only to fade from the Triple Crown trail due to injuries, form reversals, or connections opting for other paths.

The major reason though, most every winner in the Jerome proved to be eventual Milers if they did have some luck in moving forward. A mile race on a cold hard bias has no true affiliation to a 9f or 10f race on a thawed out faster bias moving forward on the trail and eventually to Kentucky. The two do not relate.

Another possible reason is that the connections of the "higher quality" thoroughbreds most likely view the icy cold New York conditions with an 8f track as meaningless if they are truly on the path to Kentucky in May.

Most of these Jerome winners who were lucky enough to go on with their careers remained somewhat successful at the 8f distance thereafter.

Most every competitor who came under the winner in the race results where fairly unheard from ever again.

Amazingly enough, most every winner over the past 12 editions have "deceivingly" half decent Kentucky Derby configurations. But this does no good if the colt is simply going to continue on that Aqueduct bias thereafter. The separation of speed on that bias is completely at odds for what is necessary at 10f at Churchill.

Now that these colts are very new 3 year olds, their mares need to be considered. In order to run up front on the Aqueduct bias at this time of year, the horse needs the proper style and inbred stamina to sustain that spot for the full mile. Again, this would not correlate to the 10f at Churchill in May but it is essential for the conditions in the Winter at Aqueduct.

Let's recap the Curse of the Jerome Stakes...

2025: Cyclone State 

Trained by Chad Summers and ridden by Luis Rivera Jr., the McKinzie colt dueled early, cleared midway, and drew off impressively to win by 3½ lengths gate to wire after leading by eight lengths at the stretch. A pure front-runner who dictated terms throughout, he clocked 1:40.82 on a fast track but very slow-paced up front. His connections unwisely opted for an international route and entered him across the sea in the Saudi Derby. He finished a dismal 9th, which left him off the Derby trail. Tragically, on June 3, 2025, Cyclone State dislocated his humerus during training at Belmont Park and was euthanized.

2024: Drum Roll Please

Brad Cox-trained Drum Roll Please rallied from just off the pace with Javier Castellano aboard, showing tactical speed as a stalker/presser to win convincingly in 1:41.91. Sitting close proved key once again. Just weeks after his Jerome victory, Drum Roll Please suffered a sesamoid fracture in a workout at Belmont, ending his Derby hopes and sidelining him long-term.

2023: Lugan Knight

Lugan Knight went gate-to-wire under Dylan Davis for Michael McCarthy, in a sharp 1:37.77—among the fastest recent times. Pure speed controlled the race as he beat out the favorite Arctic Arrogance. Despite early promise, Lugan Knight struggled in subsequent preps (including a poor seventh in the Gotham) and was relegated to Allowance and Claiming races for the rest of his career.

2022: Courvoisier

Courvoisier pressed the pace early before surging clear late with José Ortiz. A patient stalker/presser, he won the race in 1:38.86. Courvoisier continued on to the Withers, faded to 7th there and has subsequently remained absent after posting 2 more lackluster performances.

2021: Capo Kane

Capo Kane dominated wire-to-wire for Harold Wyner and Dylan Davis, showcasing raw front-end speed in 1:38.02. His strong Jerome performance raised hopes, but a 3rd place in the Withers Stakes dwindled down to a 6th in the Gotham, his last performance of his career.

2020: Independence Hall

Independence Hall stalked in 2nd under José Ortiz for Michael Trombetta in a quick 1:37.27—the fastest Jerome in this span. It was a standout effort. Despite high expectations after taking 2nd in the Sam F. Davis, he failed to produce in the Florida Derby. He went on to compete in eight Grade 1 and Grade 2 races thereafter, winning only one, the Hagyard Fayette Stakes at Keeneland close to a year later.

2019: Mind Control

Mind Control took the lead and outran the rest with John Velazquez aboard, displaying a strong trip in 1:39.06. This win launched a multi-million dollar career. After an eventual 2nd in the Gotham, the connections redirected him to shorter sprint and mile races where he thrived with multiple graded wins, thwarting the curse, so to speak.

2018: Firenze Fire

Firenze Fire sat tightly grouped with his "under-par" competitors with Manuel Franco aboard in a very slow early tempo before overpowering all of them in 1:42.88. Firenze Fire earned enough points to start in the Derby but finished a distant 11th, confirming the connections' suspicions that he was better suited to shorter distances.

2017: El Areeb

El Areeb stalked the lead with Trevor McCarthy and finished 11 lengths to the good over his competitors. The victory was a very slow 1:46.17. He was up against a highly lackluster group of 6 foes to begin with. He backed up this win with another in the Withers, and then a 3rd in the Gotham. He made no headway thereafter.

2016: Flexibility

Chad Brown's Flexibility sat upper mid-pack with Irad Ortiz Jr. before rallying in 1:42.98—one of the rare off-the-lead wins in this speed-biased race. There is always an outlier. Thereafter, he failed to 4th in the Withers and in his final performance in the Wood Memorial, he remained for a distant 7th place.

2015: El Kabeir

El Kabeir pressed the pace in 3rd position for John Terranova, prevailing in 1:44.69. He was one of the better Jerome competitors over the years and did well in his prep follow-ups in Aqueduct in the Withers, Gotham and Wood. He earned enough points to qualify but was scratched the day before the Derby due to a foot abscess/injury.

2014: Noble Moon

Noble Moon chased in second before taking over early with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard clocking 1:45.08 on a winter track. Three months later he appeared in the Wood Memorial, where he was able to only produce a 6th place. Noble Moon appeared in 15 races after the Jerome win, including Stakes races and Claiming races, and was never able to post another win.

Year	Winner	Position at First Call	Position at Second Call	Final Time	DI/Triads
2025	Cyclone State	1st	1st	1:40.82	4.33 / 15-18-21
2024	Drum Roll Please	5th - but only 1.5 lengths behind the lead	5th	1:41.91	2.67 / 15-25-23
2023	Lugan Knight	1st	1st	1:37.77	3.00 / 20-19-15
2022	Courvoisier	2nd	2nd	1:38.86	2.24 / Tapit
2021	Capo Kane	1st	1st	1:38.02	1.57 / 15-23-20
2020	Independence Hall	2nd	2nd	1:37.27	3.67 / Tapit
2019	Mind Control	1st	1st	1:39.06	2.33 / 19-17-15
2018	Firenze Fire	5th - (bunched up 6 horse gate)	6th	1:42.88	4.14 / 15-16-18
2017	El Areeb	2nd	2nd	1:46.17	3.25 / 15-14-18
2016	Flexibility	4th	4th	1:42.98	3.00 / 19-11-18
2015	El Kabeir	3rd	3rd	1:44.69	5.86 / 14-13-20
2014	Noble Moon	2nd	1st	1:45.08	1.58 / 15-12-18

In these 12 editions, early speed has been dominant. Nine winners led gate to wire or pressed the lead in 2nd or 3rd. Drum Roll Please sat in 5th at the 1st and 2nd calls, however, there were only 5 competitors that day and he basically sat only 1.5 lengths off the leader in the early goings. Firenze Fire was the only colt to sit off the pace, although the small field was still fairly bunched together.

Rear runners have struggled, making forward placement essential on Aqueduct's configuration. They need style, they need just enough inbred stamina from their mares to sustain their energy and then, they need to get as far away from Aqueduct as possible in February and March in order race train properly for the Derby.

Jerome Stakes Winners Summary Chart (2014–2025)

• Where they fall on the speed/stamina spectrum has no significance for this race. Mares need to attach some well needed stamina regardless of lead position, stalking position or even mid-pack.

• It is the style of running which hands the advantage in this particular race.

• As far as Kentucky Derby suitability, this race has been cursed for the last 13 years in so far as even gaining a gate, let alone hitting the Superfecta. Completely different parameters and many remain on the Aqueduct Trail. This is not conducive to Kentucky in May.

  
  

As New York's frosty January signals the start of the 3 year olds competing on the Derby trail, the Jerome remains a forwardly placed paradise, but not much for the big race itself. Maybe, this year, they can break the curse. Bring early foot—or prepare for a chilly finish.

If time permits, a quick analysis of the 2026 field will follow here. Again, it's not the most exciting or important Prep on the Trail. I'll try to update if I can.