The Art of the Game - Late Derby Preps, 50 to 100 points

Side-note: I apologize for being so long-winded on this one but I can't stress the importance of this enough and sometimes it is hard to find the words to express it. It's a passion and so, I just keep typing! I'll edit it later!

Handicapping Late Derby Preps (50 points to 100 points) sits in a box unto itself.

Your mindset must be more about sensitivity to the journey of the horse to date in contrast to posted beyers and fractional times.

This is the set of races where the speedy hotshots of the past races tend to tail off and the quiet ones who "appeared" to have struggled begin to shine.

In other words, when handicapping a late Derby Prep, do not trust what the information appears to say, look for what it is hiding.

These are the types of races where you will see more familiar names contesting their races against some obvious unknowns. Odds will usually always reflect the obvious distinction between these two sets.

Unlike every other type of race where the field is wide open with either a group of "unseasoned" or "seasoned" horses, the Late Preps will usually consist of a few stand-out low odds contenders with several unknowns.

Concentrate on those unknowns first. One of those "unknowns" may have finally shipped to the proper track or he will finally be let loose at the proper distance. We have moved out of the "speed demon" advantage stage and everything starts fresh again.

Hype has no place in a late Derby Prep and that is a fact.

Look for that longshot - he's probably there - ready to explode.

He's the one who did not do well on that sloppy track a couple races back.

He's the one who couldn't break his maiden at 6.5f.

He's the one who filled out a couple of superfectas and was quietly sent back to his barn.

He's the one who could not compete against speed demons and craves extra track.

He's the one who had some experience at that track or he could be one who finally ships out of his home barn.

He's the one who has great potential to explode in this late prep.

The M/L favorites in the race are the ones who slammed those shorter maidens and early preps with extravagant speed figures - and the public gobbles that up, along with the odds-makers! Pay it no attention!

You must remember, the favorites and the longshots are all green, all immature, attempting new tracks, new parameters, bigger crowds, new experiences - all together in that gate. The previous hotshot speedsters who have those lower odds are attempting the same new factors and, believe it or not, they are the ones who will most likely have a bigger shock to their system than the longshots.

This doesn't mean that longshots always win these preps, quite the contrary, but these are the horses who finally get their opportunity to shine if they truly follow their breeding. Maybe they win, maybe they hit the board - either way - NEVER DISMISS THEM!

Words of advice first. At this time of year, you are bound to find numerous places on the internet where so-called handicappers are posting their picks and tips for the races. Take that crap with a grain of salt and don't get sucked in.

BEWARE OF:

1. Those who are posting basically half the field as their "top contenders".

2. Those who are posting the other half as their "use underneath". (What a joke!)

3. Those who do not back it up with any real substance that you don't already know yourself.

4. Usually always back the favorites. Usually all of them and always the speedy ones.

5. Make no attempt to think outside the box or past the PP sheets.

6. Quote speed figures or timeform figures from short races that do not coincide with no projection.

7. Have no clue how the horses are built.

8. Never admit how they actually bet, if they even bet, or how they actually made a mess of the previous race. They tend to stay silent and move on to the next as if nothing happened. It's all bullshit.

   
   

Walk away and handicap your race. When it comes to a Late Derby Prep, I would bet my entire Derby bankroll that not one of them is consulting the proper factors. Speed figures do have their place but they should be attacked differently with this type of race. As a matter of fact, most times they are the reason for disaster.

ISOLATE THE PROPER CONFIGURATIONS AND STYLE FOR THE SPECIFIC PREP RACE:

1. Put the PP's to the side and go to Equibase.com. Go to "Races" and type in the name of the Prep.

   a. Get the List of the last 10 winners of this prep. Write them down.

   b. Then look at each Results chart, noting the running style of both the winner and the losers.

   c. Double check the weather of that day and any mishaps that could have affected those results. (bad breaks, dq's, etc)

   d. Make sure that the winner won on his own merit and not by any weird circumstances for proper data.

   e. You are now getting yourself familiar with this Prep race, gather as much info as you can.

This step will aid you in determining the "usual" bias and the type of horse that won at that track, at that distance, and at that exact time of year. This information is not something to be taken as set in stone, however, it will give you an insight as to what had worked in the past under the same exact conditions within the race parameters. Most times, you will see a definite pattern emerge or, at the very least, get some type of handle on the usual bias of the track. Do not go past 10 races in your pre-evaluation.

2. Go to Pedigreequery.com. Jot down the Chef Index and CD of each of those past winners and also each of the present contenders on that field. Even better if you have access to the mare's configurations as well. They do begin to make their presence known as we enter these late preps. (You can always inquire here and I will post them for you.)

3. Jot down each of the past winners Running Styles as noted through the Race results charts.

4. Find the pattern. Did the higher indexes consistently win in the past? Was it the lower indexes?

   
   

5. What was the chef index of the lead speed? Did he hold or did he disintegrate to the bottom? This aids with understanding the bias. In its simplest form, this info tells you if speed dominates or stamina dominates within these exact parameters of this specific prep at this track. EACH PREP WILL BE DIFFERENT!

   
   

6. Align your "winning patterns" with the new contenders. Isolate those who coincide REGARDLESS of odds.

(Side Note: If you are really serious about understanding the advantageous bias of the day, an added step would be to consult the race results of every race on dirt on the undercard for that day. Make note if speed is holding or not. You need to know how the track played in the past, but also how it is actually playing that day too.)

For simplicity sake, let's work with this past weekend's prestigious 9f Risen Star.

(Full disclosure, I did not bet this race but I did handicap it.)

Let's look at the favorite first.

RED FLAGS:

1. Highest last race speed rating in Purple box. This is meaningless as it pertains to the parameters of the race. Not one thing is apple for apples. Not the track, nor the bias, nor the distance. MEANINGLESS.

2. Prime Power at 142.8 (1st) also MEANINGLESS in a Late Derby Prep.

3. The area with the Red X pertaining to Sire and Dam Average Winning Distance is the most Meaningless part of any PP sheet at any time and for any race. A horse is made up from a compilation of his sires and mares and is absolutely not simply a product of his 1st generation.

4. Breeders Cup Juvenile was a toss, (he stumbled badly at the start, lost his preferred running style) so we refer back to his first 2 races. Without a shadow of a doubt and based on his middle run fractional times, this horse followed right on target with his configurations. From the very beginning and past all of the hype and seeing his name on handicappers top Derby Lists across the internet, East Avenue was built for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and is pushing it for the Preakness.

   
   

   DP = 5-9-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.00

   Mare Profile = 13-3-2-5-6   Speed = 16   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.63   Triads = 18-10-13

If you completed your research on the past winners, you would have seen that East Avenue's configurations were in complete opposition for this exact race. Nothing coincided with the bias of the winter track, nor with the necessary stamina figures that needed to be present.

Simply stated, the horse was too fast (and bred too fast) to have a shot here - he showed his allegiance to those numbers in his fractional times - and at 9 to 5 odds, no chance of risking a gamble for a win in this race. NONE.

Had they entered him in the 8.5f Sunland Derby instead, his breeding would have aligned, along with his style of running, and his performance would have been completely opposite. Much more advantageous for that race and most likely, much different results. Understanding how a horse is built as it aligns within the parameters of any given late prep is the recipe for success, both for the barn and for the gambler.

Because of his determination and the fact that there is always an opportunity for a horse built like this to grab a small piece 10 lengths behind in a late Derby Prep, it would be reasonable to consider him for those lower spots. Spending the extra dollars in that scenario is never wasted money - it is more of a backing strategy for your money.

On paper, Built, Magnitude, and American Promise had the proper inbred configurations that aligned with the past and they also never ran like speed demons that would have thwarted their endurance in the 9f race - based on inheritance.

Since we now know that the conditions are on par with their build, now we need to see if any of them actually want to accept that slight advantage.

Going back to the first premise, always work on the longshots first, they would garner the highest attention based on alignment with the past. In essence, alignment with the bias and conduciveness through their breeding.

This does not mean that they are automatically ripe for the superfecta. You are looking to make a profit but now you have a cleaner starting point. You've chopped the field and now you can proceed with the ones who will pay you first. Sometimes you find him, sometimes you don't - but they become the most important animals on that field to study.

Now you can proceed to the Past Performance Sheets to find out if any of those 2 longshots are ready to run.

First up: AMERICAN PROMISE

DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 10-2-6-5-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-13-19

He was an instant toss for the race and no amount of pretty odds and pretty configurations would have worked within the parameters of this particular race. In a nutshell, this guy doesn't want any part of his configurations. All the evidence is there to see within 1 minute.

Again, a late Derby Prep is not about the figures and the beyers in so much as it is more about reading exactly what the horse has done to date using common sense and simply talking your way through it. Use your insight.

LOOK AT THE HORSE. SEE WHAT HE DID. A picture will begin to emerge that tells his fate for the upcoming race.

RED FLAGS:

1. Six shots to break his maiden (longer distance maidens!) and now attempting a Late 50 point Derby Prep traveling 9f.

2. He had one win out of seven races. That came on a sloppy track. Major red flag.

3. Note the drop in his endurance every single solitary time he is asked to move fast early. All 3 of his last races, in succession, he crossed that 90 barrier all the way up to 99 and 105 in his early calls and then he disintegrated late. When he moved slower early, he was able to at least keep his energy or exceed it.

4. For the 9f Risen Star, and based on his style of running, could you project that the opening calls would be on par with his previous 3 as opposed to the sub-par early beyers of his failed maidens? Talking yourself through it, obviously, he would need to continue to match those last three early figures in a Grade 2, 9f, 50 point Prep. There were lead speed demons entered, so he would be attempting to match - yes, the early calls would need to be just as fast.

5. His gorgeous configurations mean nothing because the horse never ran to them and he certainly isn't going to here.

6. American Promise was the first easy toss of the race. Again, it is more about your inner dialogue and using common sense to talk your way through it.

   
   

   Finally, The eventual Winner and the last longshot to look at:

   
   

MAGNITUDE

DP = 2-7-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64   CD = 0.55 ANZ: 3.36

Mare Profile = 4-9-5-8-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.16   Triads = 18-22-16

1. Without getting too deep into the printed figures, you need to look at the horse's journey. There were 3 contenders for the win based on their configurations that aligned with the race as dictated by the history of the winners. Built, American Promise and Magnitude. Built was a given with his low odds and past performances. American Promise was a toss. Now we are left with Magnitude.

2. When you simply talk your way through the horse's journey, everything begins to make sense whether or not you should keep or toss the longshot.

3. This horse went off at 43 to 1 and that was because he came in 6th in the Lecomte. Well, if you look closely, the Lecomte was a toss race for him. One, it was a sloppy track - he probably hated it. Second, he was in the rear and based on his other races, he is NOT A REAR RUNNER. The Lecomte was meaningless when it came to handicapping this horse.

4. With the Lecomte tossed, the oddsmakers gave him extremely low odds in all but one of his races. AND HE PERFORMED QUITE WELL. It was not as if he came in 7th place over and over again to warrant 43 to 1 in this race.

5. He had experience three times at 1-1/16th, twice at Fairgrounds and workouts at Fairgrounds. That is experience. His energy remained even in the OC and excelled in the Gun Runner.

6. Were they exceptional races? No, but they weren't horrific either. They were basically steady and even. He held his own when concentrating on those 8.5f races. He came in 1st and 2nd - and there really is no reason to think that he wouldn't hold his own yet again in this race. Afterall, we do know that his configurations (breeding) do align with the 9f race.

7. The son of Not This Time, backed with Giant's Causeway's stamina, with exceptionally historically correct configurations for the race, going off at 43 to 1, with really no real reason other than he didn't do well running from the rear on a sloppy track in his last. There was no rain so that factor was meaningless. He was bumped at the start and taken back which is not his running style, so that would probably not happen again either.

8. Would it be reasonable to consider using this "properly bred" longshot based on tossing the Lecomte and acknowledging what he did in his other two 8.5f races? He remained steady up front.

9. Absolutely. But only as a half decent longshot player because nothing here suggested he was ready to explode, which is exactly what he did. Sometimes that suggestion is easily read, but in this case it was not. When you consider his journey to date, we see competitiveness along with alignment to the bias and breeding . But he did explode, in a huge way.

When handicapping a Late Prep, timeform and beyers should be consulted based on the horse's campaign and not based on simply how speedy those figures are. Understand that these horses are now teenagers and not little boys any more. Soon they will be men, but not yet.

Discover the colt, his tendencies, what he endured, and what he wants NOW. Look deeply for the reasons why he faltered in certain races. Match him up with previous winners and see if his breeding is at least advantageous as it was in the past.

Never ever ever rely on odds, not the M/L nor the public's perception at this stage of the Preps. This is when the longshots begin to shine and the speed demons begin to falter. They are beginning to come into their own and the races that they were entered into may have not suited them at all.

Unlike any other category of races, the Late Derby Prep should be handicapped more with a dialogue and insight as opposed to reading that PP sheet in the normal manner.

There are 22 late Prep races (including overseas) and these are the races where you are best served by isolating the longshots and looking for the reasons why they would come into their own in this particular race. Look at the favorites and determine if they are over-hyped speed demons. Talk out loud about the horse. Discover him and find out what he really wanted all along.