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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Tapit, Giant's Causeway and the Tampa Bay Derby


On March 11th, a field of hopefuls will assemble for the Tampa Bay Derby.


An 8.5f contest that has Tapit and Giant's Causeway's footprints all over it. There are a ton of easy clues as it relates to the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes within it as well.


Much can be ascertained from the list of recent previous winners. They will give you a very strong indication of what type of horse wins this particular race on this bias and how they ultimately translate to the Triple Crown.


The History


Tampa Bay Downs. Even at a short 8.5f, this race demands a certain amount of quality inbred stamina. The type of stamina that excels on turf or AWS or at extreme distances on dirt. Because of this, the winners who find favor in this particular race may not see that good luck charm in the Kentucky Derby.


The Kentucky Derby player MUST have equal parts of stamina and speed, with speed being the operative word. Over-exaggerated speed and stamina to be more precise.


Major speed players do not win the Tampa Bay Derby.


We have known for years the strong stamina influence of Tapit. It took 2 years to isolate and truly get a grasp on his stamp when it came to Derby time. Just like every other entry into the Kentucky Derby, those with an overabundance of both high inbred speed and stamina have an incredible advantage. If one side overrides the other, they simply have no chance at the 10f Derby.


Speed wins races. That is obvious. So a speedy Derby player MUST have the inbred stamina to hold his energy for the full 10f.


A stamina Derby player must have evident inbred speed in order to compete. When it comes to a Tapit offspring in the Derby, it was affirmed several years ago that 3.10 was the absolute cut-off . Above 3.10 and the horse's speed was not "watered down" by that strong Tapit influence. Those with a 3.00 and under would lean too far over on the stamina side of the scale, thereby giving them a major leg up in the Belmont Stakes.


Tapit's influence - The Tampa Bay Derby Winners & The Triple Crown


2019 - Tacitus

DP = 6-14-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92 CD = 0.78

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16


First generation Tapit son with a 3.92 chef index. Obvious stamina ability through his sire gives a very strong advantage in the Tampa Bay Derby. Because that chef index soars past the 3.00 cut-off, his speed inheritance counteracts all of that stamina which allows for competitiveness in the Kentucky Derby. The 1.05 mare index adds to that speed as well.


Always remember: Major Inbred Speed + Major Inbred Stamina = Derby Player


Tacitus hit the board in 3rd place in the Derby. He also used that major stamina inheritance to come in 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. That major stamina inheritance was an integral part of his victory in the Tampa Bay Derby.


2017 - Tapwrit

DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 11-5-3-6-6 Speed = 16 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.43 Triads = 19-14-15


First generation Tapit son with a 3.00 index. Excellent example to show just how strong of a stamina influence that Tapit truly is. Notice the mares index. It is a very high 1.43 which in most all colts would depict a phenomenal amount of inbred speed. It gets completely wiped out because of Tapit. With only a 3.00 chef index, the necessary competitive speed for the Derby is lacking, scale tipped way too far over to the stamina side.


Tapwrit took his advantaged stamina and won the Tampa Bay Derby trophy. He did not have the proper balance for Kentucky and came in 6th place. Commendable, but still 9.5 lengths behind the winner. Of course, Tapwrit used that killer stamina with his 3.00 index and won the 12f Belmont Stakes.


2014 - Ring Weekend

DP = 6-12-13-1-0 (32) DI = 3.27 CD = 0.72

Mare Profile = 8-2-4-5-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 14-11-19


First generation Tapit son with a 3.27 index. Do you think if he was entered into the Kentucky Derby that he may have had a chance? Don't answer too quick. There is a huge spotlight on the mare's index. Way too low and adding another heaping of raw stamina on top of Tapit's strong influence. The scale tips even further down. Remember, mare's indexes are not read the same as the chefs. Under .90 gets into stamina territory and the further it goes, the more stamina it dumps. Ring Weekend would have had a very hard time in the Derby.


Unfortunately for Graham Motion, he decided to go with the Preakness as opposed to the Belmont Stakes. Wrong choice. But you can see how the massive amount of inbred stamina aided this horse for the bias at Tampa Bay.


Giant's Causeway's influence - The Tampa Bay Derby Winners & The Triple Crown

2022 - Classic Causeway

DP = 3-2-23-0-0 (28) DI = 1.43 CD = 0.29

Mare Profile = 4-6-5-10-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 15-21-20


Giant's Causeway son with a 1.43 index, very low CD, huge spread in balance with the mares and triads weighted passed the Classic distance. So much inherited stamina that found favor at Tampa Bay and also flipped him all the way over to the Turf. Any wonder why he bombed in the Florida Derby on the fast speedy track of Gulfstream? Obviously, he wasn't going anywhere in the Kentucky Derby with the lack of that important speedy influence. Back to back 11th place trophies.


2016 - Destin

DP = 3-2-23-0-0 (28) DI = 1.43 CD = 0.29

Mare Profile = 8-5-4-7-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.19 Triads = 17-16-16

Giant's Causeway son with a 1.43 index. Major stamina influence BUT there is a glaring difference between him and his half brother above. Notice the Mare's Indexes between both. Classic Causeway has a very low .76 (more stamina) and Destin has a much higher 1.19 (more speed). The inbred stamina was key to his win at Tampa Bay and the mare's influence balanced his scale to at least give him a shot in the Derby.


The top 5 placers in the 2016 Derby all had major speed and Destin was the only "stamina" horse to come up directly behind them in 6th place. A bit too stamina heavy from Giant's Causeway held him at bay, but he ran his heart out in the Belmont Stakes, missing the wire by a nose. That is 101% Giant's Causeway at work and had Destin's mare's inheritance been notched down a tad, he would have taken that trophy.


2015 - Carpe Diem

DP = 4-14-24-0-0 (42) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.52

Mare Profile = 2-8-5-11-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.71 Triads = 15-24-20


Giant's Causeway son with a 2.50 index. Major inbred stamina from his sire along with a serous amount of influential chefs - 42 points. Even more stamina lumped in with the mare's low .71 index. Incredible amount of inbred stamina for the Tampa Bay test and came back to win on the hard bias in the Bluegrass. Unfortunately, he was lacking in the required inbred speed to offset the scale for the Derby. Carpe Diem came in 10th place in his bid for the roses.


2013 - Verrazano

DP = 9-0-17-0-0 (26) DI = 2.06 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 6-7-6-8-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.96 Triads = 19-21-20


Second generation Giant's Causeway with a more balanced scale from the mares. Still, a giant heaping of stamina from his grandsire gives him favor at Tampa Bay. Unfortunate for this horse and for his trainer, the rain destroyed his bid in the Kentucky Derby. Too much inbred stamina gave him a 100% disadvantage on the sloppy track. Also unfortunate, no shot in the Belmont Stakes - sidelined.


Easy to see the powerful influence between Tapit and Giant's Causeway as it pertains to the Tampa Bay Derby. The key here is to fully examine each participant to gauge their inbred stamina qualifications.


But, you won't have to look too hard...


TAPIT TRICE

DP = 5-15-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 10-6-1-7-7 Speed = 16 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.23 Triads = 17-14-15


First generation Tapit with a 3.92 index. Thirty Two Points from the chefs. A high speedy mare index at 1.23. Guess who has Triple Crown Potential written all over him. Every number in perfect sync with the Tampa Bay Derby, the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and (possibly) the Belmont Stakes.


Did you hear that Brian!! You nailed it! What a thrill it will be to watch Extra Anejo and Faustin tangle with this guy in one of those races.


Just single Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby.


There is high stamina leanings with Freedom Road, Mikey Bananas and Prairie Hawk but they would be hard-pressed to compete with the speed that Tapit Trice is also holding.

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