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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Tampa Bay Derby - Pros & Cons 2024


DP = 3-3-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 6-5-1-7-9   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.69   Triads = 12-13-17

Pros: Two board hits on turf reveal gravitation to stamina side which works in this race. Won at this track last out. Has revealed versatility with ability to climb to the tote board from the rear and also from the front on the lead. Has never been off the board in all 4 races, 3 different biases, 2 different running styles. No reason in the world that he couldn't hit that board a 5th time as he gets closer to his optimum.

Cons: Class is the only thing, but realistically, there really isn't a gate filled with it in this race. He's good for a board hit chance.



DP = 3-2-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 9-3-7-10-3   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.22   Triads = 19-20-20

Pros: Really nice Kentucky Derby configurations which means he may be running against the grain on Saturday. A smooth slick coating of moisture from rain on that surface may be just the trick that gives him an edge. Watch the weather.

Cons: If he breaks well, his inherited speed will carry him to the front to duke it out with No More Time. On a clean normal bias, he'll lose that battle.



DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 10-4-3-3-7   Speed = 14   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.35   Triads = 17-10-13

Pros: Son of Constitution, Second generation Tapit. Properly built for the race based on historical advantage. Based on breeding, should upgrade from Oaklawn to Tampa Bay track. Successful in taking second place at same distance last out, albeit slow as molasses. He possesses a strong inclination to pass tiring horses with great ease and could come in handy in this race. He has the credentials to make it happen.

Cons: Even though stamina is highly desirable for this particular race, a horse still needs to produce speed to compete. His beyer figures leave plenty to be desired and do not align with that 4.00 index.



DP = 3-6-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 6-7-2-9-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.78   Triads = 15-18-19

Pros: Son of Good Magic, a new sire who is showing a great propensity of passing through higher end stamina. This factor could have the same advantage as the Tapit and Giant's Causeway advantage. Configurations are hefty and align with this race. Managed to win at 7f, traveling way under his optimum. Exerted more early speed than aligns with these configurations to get the job done. At this distance, he should be able to spread that energy out, more to his liking. He has a solid chance to break through. Won on this track already, with the help of Good Magic. If a contender is going to bust through the Tapit and Giant's advantage, it would follow through to Good Magic.

Cons: The only con is the fact that he is a maiden winner. He is a complete novice against the experience of all the rest. Very late to the game, but you have to start somewhere. Still a keeper.



DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 8-4-4-11-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.89   Triads = 16-19-21

Pros: Configurations are good for the 10f Kentucky Derby which means 9f is easily attained at a faster pace. Showed success at Aqueduct at 9f in his maiden which aligns.

Cons: Successful late run in the Holy Bull was on a completely different bias than what he will be running on in this race. Pattern of performances reveal bad - then good - then bad - then good. If pattern persists, he goes backwards. If pattern was due to adverse reaction to a muddy track, then its understandable. But then again, the possibility of rain for Saturday may produce another performance like he had in the Remsen.



DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 11-2-3-8-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.17   Triads = 16-13-17

Pros: Son of Anchor Down, Second generation Tapit. First two races at Saratoga showed some talent but the natural progression was thwarted in his next two. This gives a nod to an advantage with build. Horrendous performance on the muddy surface at Delaware Park proves he is favoring the stamina side. That race is a toss. Bad break in his last also knocks out any reliance on those beyer figures. This makes his last 2 races complete throwaways and he should have a fresh start here.

Cons: Weather projected in Tampa Bay for Saturday is calling for occasional rain showers, cloudiness and rain at 60%. Doubt it would be muddy like it was at Delaware Park, but the slightest chance of even a wet surface could be adverse to him. This would give a legitimate reason to run away from him.



DP = 2-3-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91   CD = 0.44

Mare Profile = 6-9-4-7-2   Speed = 15   Stamina = 9   Index = 1.67   Triads = 19-20-13

Pros: Second generation Giant's Causeway with the proper 1.00 category index with that sire. Obviously, he has the class, the speed, the style and the right build for the 9f race. Proven ability at this track already. Important to note, in the Sam F. Davis race, this horse annihilated an advantaged Tapit foe, Patriot Spirit and also, one of his half brothers, Tireless. Their credentials for the race meant absolutely nothing to No More Time and this talent should easily carry over into this race. Over the last 10 editions, a line to Tapit or Giant's Causeway was visible for 80% of the past winners. As stated in his analysis after his last prep win... he should be good to go forward in his next at 9f. There is no foe here that changes that sentiment.

Cons: Even though he is the half-brother to the Champ, Epicenter, he is not built like him through the dam side. He aligns more with Simplification, Ain't Life Grand, Chasing Time, and In Due Time. They garner excess speed from their sire, Not This Time, which makes them killer players for the 9.5f and under races. This, in turn, makes them favor their speed side which goes against this particular race. This always has a chance of rearing its head at the top of the stretch for this particular race. Even with the best of credentials for any given race, nothing is ever a sure thing. That said, still best of the field.



DP = 1-5-7-1-0 (14) DI = 2.11   CD = 0.43

Mare Profile = 8-4-5-5-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.14   Triads = 17-14-16

Pros: Blinkers get added. That's about it.

Cons: Three consecutive races under his belt at this track. The two last races over a mile at Tampa Bay leave plenty to be desired in the speed department. Mares give no assistance on the required stamina end.



DP = 0-1-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22   CD = 0.10

Mare Profile = 8-4-6-9-3   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.24   Triads = 18-19-18

Pros: Second Generation Giants Causeway. Highly advantageous in this race. Previous winners who were descendants from Giant's Causeway all had indexes in the 1.00 to 1.90 category. This matches No More Time in the advantage department.

Grand Mo is the epitome of a Catch 22. Exactly like 2022's winner Classic Causeway. Unfortunately, even if he pulled it off here with his credentials for this race, he would forfeit that momentum at Churchill in May. Grand Mo's first two debut races on AWS, he won. Third race on turf, took 3rd. Fourth race on dirt, stagnant at third. That last race on dirt was at Gulfstream, which is not necessarily geared towards his build. Back on a more suitable bias at Tampa Bay, his natural progression should be highly enhanced here. Tampa Bay in March is a perfect sweet spot. If he is going to make a mark on dirt with the way he is built, it would be at this track at this distance. If he pulls it off, he drops back down again for the May race. This horse has a very high shot of making noise in this race, but then, a complete toss for the Kentucky Derby.

Cons: Somewhat successful with board hits on 3 separate biases but has always dropped in late energy going shorter. Could have been directly caused by the biases being slightly off each time OR it could be the horse himself. Even with experience on all 3 surfaces, this type of dirt is completely different which is a blind spot for the handicapper. It could be the perfect sweet spot or it could be a disaster. Worth the shot in spite of that.



DP = 1-0-5-0-0 (6) DI = 1.40   CD = 0.33

Mare Profile = 8-4-6-8-3   Speed = 12   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.30   Triads = 18-18-17

Pros: Inheritance matches Tampa Bay track better than his last at 9f at Gulfstream. He managed a 3rd place, losing by only 2 necks. He drops back in distance and enters a gate on a track better suited for him. Could surprise and garner some purse money underneath.

Cons: Still has not broken his maiden. Could have been the biases at fault though.



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