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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Tampa Bay Derby History

Last year, before the 2023 Tampa Bay Derby, I posted an article entitled "Tapit, Giant's Causeway, and the Tampa Bay Derby."

I dusted it off for a repost.

As expected, last year's winner Tapit Trice, fit directly into the historical parameters of the race. He was the easy number one choice, as he was the only one entered with that influence.

Tampa Bay Downs. Even at a short 8.5f, this race demands a certain amount of quality inbred stamina. The type of stamina that excels on turf or AWS or at extreme distances on dirt. Because of this, the winners who find favor in this particular race may not see that same good luck charm in the Kentucky Derby.

Stamina prevails in this race and the two sires that help contribute to that success is Tapit and Giant's Causeway. Over the last 10 years, 8 out of the 10 had either Tapit or Giant's Causeway sitting in their back pocket. That's an 80% win rate for this race on this bias at this time of year.

At the moment, expect to see at least two who fit that bill this year with No More Time and Give Me Liberty.

But there is one other sire who may have the right stuff to enter the ring with Tapit and Giant's Causeway when it comes to stamina inheritance. That sire is Good Magic.

I figured it would be a good idea to dust that article off, update it and repost part of it again this year. We'll dive deep into the 2024 field once the PP's are out. A full analysis will be posted.

Let's see if we can do it again. In the mean time, here's a bit of a refresher.

The History:

Tapit's influence - The Tampa Bay Derby Winners & The Triple Crown


DP = 5-15-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 10-6-1-7-7   Speed = 16   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.23   Triads = 17-14-15

First generation Tapit offspring. That stamina influence helped him hit 3rd on the tote board in the Belmont Stakes.

2019 - TACITUS

DP = 6-14-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92   CD = 0.78

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16

First generation Tapit son with a 3.92 chef index. Obvious stamina ability through his sire gives a very strong advantage in the Tampa Bay Derby. Because that chef index soars past the 3.00 cut-off, his speed inheritance counteracts all of that stamina which allows for competitiveness in the Kentucky Derby. The 1.05 mare index adds to that speed as well.

Always remember: Major Inbred Speed + Major Inbred Stamina = Derby Player

Tacitus hit the board in 3rd place in the Derby. He also used that major stamina inheritance to come in 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. That major stamina inheritance was an integral part of his victory in the Tampa Bay Derby.

2017 - TAPWRIT

DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 11-5-3-6-6 Speed = 16 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.43 Triads = 19-14-15

First generation Tapit son with a 3.00 index. Excellent example to show just how strong of a stamina influence that Tapit truly is. Notice the mares index. It is a very high 1.43 which in most all colts would depict a phenomenal amount of inbred speed. It gets completely wiped out because of Tapit. With only a 3.00 chef index, the necessary competitive speed for the Derby is lacking, scale tipped way too far over to the stamina side.

Tapwrit took his advantaged stamina and won the Tampa Bay Derby trophy. He did not have the proper balance for Kentucky and came in 6th place. Commendable, but still 9.5 lengths behind the winner. Of course, Tapwrit used that killer stamina with his 3.00 index and won the 12f Belmont Stakes.


DP = 6-12-13-1-0 (32) DI = 3.27 CD = 0.72

Mare Profile = 8-2-4-5-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 14-11-19

First generation Tapit son with a 3.27 index. Do you think if he was entered into the Kentucky Derby that he may have had a chance? Don't answer too quick. There is a huge spotlight on the mare's index. Way too low and adding another heaping of raw stamina on top of Tapit's strong influence. The scale tips even further down. Remember, mare's indexes are not read the same as the chefs. Under .90 gets into stamina territory and the further it goes, the more stamina it dumps. Ring Weekend would have had a very hard time in the Derby.

Unfortunately for Graham Motion, he decided to go with the Preakness as opposed to the Belmont Stakes. Wrong choice. But you can see how the massive amount of inbred stamina aided this horse for the bias at Tampa Bay.

Giant's Causeway's influence - The Tampa Bay Derby Winners & The Triple Crown


DP = 3-2-23-0-0 (28) DI = 1.43   CD = 0.29

Mare Profile = 4-6-5-10-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 15-21-20

Giant's Causeway son with a 1.43 index, very low CD, huge spread in balance with the mares and triads weighted passed the Classic distance. So much inherited stamina that found favor at Tampa Bay and also flipped him all the way over to the Turf. Any wonder why he bombed in the Florida Derby on the fast speedy track of Gulfstream? Obviously, he wasn't going anywhere in the Kentucky Derby with the lack of that important speedy influence. Back to back 11th place trophies.

2016 - DESTIN

DP = 3-2-23-0-0 (28) DI = 1.43 CD = 0.29

Mare Profile = 8-5-4-7-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.19 Triads = 17-16-16

Giant's Causeway son with a 1.43 index. Major stamina influence BUT there is a glaring difference between him and his half brother above. Notice the Mare's Indexes between both. Classic Causeway has a very low .76 (more stamina) and Destin has a much higher 1.19 (more speed). The inbred stamina was key to his win at Tampa Bay and the mare's influence balanced his scale to at least give him a shot in the Derby.

The top 5 placers in the 2016 Derby all had major speed and Destin was the only "stamina" horse to come up directly behind them in 6th place. A bit too stamina heavy from Giant's Causeway held him at bay, but he ran his heart out in the Belmont Stakes, missing the wire by a nose. That is 101% Giant's Causeway at work and had Destin's mare's inheritance been notched down a tad, he would have taken that trophy.

2015 - CARPE DIEM 

DP = 4-14-24-0-0 (42) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.52

Mare Profile = 2-8-5-11-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.71 Triads = 15-24-20

Giant's Causeway son with a 2.50 index. Major inbred stamina from his sire along with a serous amount of influential chefs - 42 points. Even more stamina lumped in with the mare's low .71 index. Incredible amount of inbred stamina for the Tampa Bay test and came back to win on the hard bias in the Bluegrass. Unfortunately, he was lacking in the required inbred speed to offset the scale for the Derby. Carpe Diem came in 10th place in his bid for the roses.


DP = 9-0-17-0-0 (26) DI = 2.06 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 6-7-6-8-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.96 Triads = 19-21-20

Second generation Giant's Causeway with a more balanced scale from the mares. Still, a giant heaping of stamina from his grandsire gives him favor at Tampa Bay. Unfortunate for this horse and for his trainer, the rain destroyed his bid in the Kentucky Derby. Too much inbred stamina gave him a 100% disadvantage on the sloppy track. Also unfortunate, no shot in the Belmont Stakes - sidelined.

Easy to see the powerful influence between Tapit and Giant's Causeway as it pertains to the Tampa Bay Derby. The key here is to fully examine each participant to gauge their inbred stamina qualifications. Let's do it again this year!


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