Running Through the Numbers - Stamina

In conjunction with the recent posted article; The Path, the Mix and the Star Ratings, let's dive into the specifics of how one should be reading these colts early on and how to make the proper assessment going forward.

Of course, this is important for those who try their luck at the windows, but even more important for owners and trainers who happen to stumble onto this little website.

A colt's chart is dotted with specific sires and mares and each one of them sits in their own specific classification.

Listed in order of importance:

1. THE CHEFS - These are sires who are listed as elite Masters of the Breed who have consistently shown the ability to pass through certain distance capabilities and attributes REGARDLESS of the mare they were bred with.

   
   

2. THE REINES - These are specific mares that lie within the specific elite bloodlines that travel through the chart. These mares are not chosen in the same manner as the chefs.

   
   

3. THE PROMINENT NON-CHEFS - Dr. Roman's list of important sires who have not crossed the threshold into a Master's seat, however have still shown pure evidence in the ability to pass through either tangible additional speed or stamina. In some cases, some of these specific non-chefs are already recognized in Australia as crossing that threshold, but not in the USA.

   
   

4. THE IMMEDIATE SIRE (and Mare) - In rare cases, additional emphasis can be placed within the speed/stamina spectrum based on tangible evidence through minimal crops and their recurring affect on numerous offspring, not simply one or two cherry-picked examples.

   
   

5. UNRECOGNIZED SIRES (and mares) - Although a rare occurrence, these are the sires who have no input within a colt's configurations, not listed with the prominent non-chefs, not recognized through Australia and are generally classified as "Fillers" within a chart.

The Unrecognized fillers who have zero affect within a colt's configurations could in fact still offer some type of influence on the new colt. While it would be "blind assumption" to consider it, who's to say it couldn't happen?

The fact remains - there are specific colts from the past who have certainly "outrun" their stated configurations and this must come from somewhere. It would be a travesty to guess or assume who could possibly be an outlining influencer and there certainly is no reason to even consider doing it. It would be futile and counter productive.

Simply recognizing the possibility of it is all that matters. This understanding comes with careful study of the horse in how he moves on the track, what he should or should not be doing, and his reactions to certain biases in conjunction with what he inherited on the surface.

The configurations of a new colt, as they lay, are the impetus and the structure of his build. These are the MAIN ingredients that he holds and any "excess ingredients" that he carries can be read in tandem.

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In order to be a player in the Kentucky Derby, a colt must have massive competitive speed and enough inbred stamina to make it around the 10f track. Since the bias at Churchill Downs in May is affected by the rains of April, it is overwhelmingly listed as Fast on clear and cloudy days, and also (usually) still fast on a sloppy sealed track year after year. Therefore, the ideal chef configurations of any player would look like something like this:

Ideal Speedy Chef Configurations Examples:

Colt A: DP = 8-10-8-2-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.86 →SPEED

Colt B: DP = 3-9-6-0-0 (18) DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 → Major SPEED

Colt C: DP = 2-4-3-1-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.70 → BOTTOM OF SPEED SPECTRUM

Without need to even consider adding in the mares for a 2 year old, let's consider these figures above in tandem with the maidens and early preps they will face first.

The "practicality" of those chef's figures work tremendously in the shorter distances they will face as immature newbies. Their chef inheritance is speed dominant offering them a clean advantage early on traveling so short. The fast biases that they encounter in the summer and early fall caters to that advantage as well.

They will gain even more advantage on the West Coast tracks and others like Parx and Gulfstream, etc as well. Basically, a built-in advantage against the fields they face because they would be swimming with the tide, not against it.

Let's take it one step further and imagine that we have Colt D entering a full gate along with the 3 horses listed above and his Chef configurations are as follows:

Colt D: DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76   CD = 0.00 → MAJOR STAMINA

Entered into a 6f Maiden in the summer at Saratoga and Colt D loses the race by 10 lengths.

Well, he was up against 3 highly advantaged horses while running on the incorrect bias for his breeding. No huge surprise there, he simply didn't belong on that track running so short against speed demons. Obviously swimming against the tide. A travesty to continue on that incorrect path but that is what happens all the time when the breeding is not a consideration.

Would this loss automatically make him a dud? If he continued to run against the grain - below his optimum and on incorrect tracks, we would never even have the opportunity to see his true potential. He would be dismissed and condemned to mediocrity. This happens all the time. Owners and trainers must define the way their charges are built in order to set them on the right path to success.

Whichever one of those 3 colts listed above who won that race would be running to his breeding - no huge feat there. It would be imperative to see his mare configurations to even consider him a 10f player. All of this is simple and easy common sense.

You could NOT classify that speedy-driven winner as a potential Derby superstar even if he won the race by 12 lengths. You would need to consult his Reine's configurations to see if he inherited the ingredients for 10f capability first. This is why HYPE and FANCY speedy wins have no place in Derby futures.

Let's assume that Colt A won the race or even came in second place:

Colt A:

DP = 8-10-8-2-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.86 →SPEED → very nice for Derby

Mare Profile = 10-5-1-6-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.37   Triads = 16-12-13 → horrific for the Derby.

No matter how impressive his debut was, this horse would have ZERO shot in the Kentucky Derby. A quick toss of epic proportions. Built to be a sprinter - no ifs, no ands, and no buts about it.

On the other hand:

Now, let's say that Colt D bursts out of that gate, runs 6f gate to wire and smokes that entire field without breaking a sweat. Without hesitation, this horse would be classified as a potential superstar. Not only did he DISPLAY wicked speed to outrun obvious sprinters, he is competing well below his optimum distance on an adverse bias for his breeding. Potential is not even a strong enough word based on chefs alone.

Let's look at Colt D's configurations in it's entirety now:

DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76   CD = 0.00

Mare Profile = 2-10-2-13-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.64   Triads = 14-25-20

This horse would have had no business winning a 6f debut on the fast bias of Saratoga in the summer as a two year old.

The simple fact that he beat a bona-fide sprinter in Colt A alone speaks volumes. Talk about easy spotlight for the Kentucky Derby! Just one simple maiden race and one can easily see that this horse is capturing something that is far removed from his configurations.

An absolutely easy win bet if his name shows up on Pool One for Futures Betting. Quite frankly, even if one were to spot this guy sporting those configurations while running lights out at a "pre-sale" track, a potential owner should sit up and take notice. You don't even have to wait for his maiden!

He inherited dominant stamina from his chefs and extreme stamina from his mares but in spite of that, he ran out front and displayed exceptional speed - seemingly coming from nowhere.

In spite of the way he ran, he is still holding those magnificent stamina drenched ingredients and they will remain intact because that is what he is built upon. Easily read as running completely through his configurations. Somewhere hidden in that chart of his is killer speed and quite frankly, it doesn't matter if the source is not strictly pinpointed - we have evidence that he is able to display it - along with readable 10f+ ability. One debut and you already know where he is headed.

Those configurations and that debut were not fictitious. This Saratoga 6f Maiden race was held on July 27th, 2017 and the gate to wire winner was CODE OF HONOR. He also came in 2nd place in the Kentucky Derby, behind the winner by only 1-3/4 lengths.

(Colt A, the sprinter, actually did come in second in that maiden.)

As we move onto the new Derby Trail and begin to read and analyze potential Derby players, killer configurations alone will not be the impetus - they must be attached to the types of races they are competing in. All of them within the field - not just the winners.

If you are a horse player, a trainer or an owner, at the very least, please look at the horse's chef configurations to at least gauge how he tips on the speed/stamina scale as a young 2 year old.

This exercise is very easy to do with the stamina driven horses. We will gain evidence of their "hidden" speed in their maidens and early races. These types are the easiest to read early on based on their running style, winning performances and the types of tracks they are displaying that speed.

We'll look at "Running through the Numbers" with the mid-range and speed categories in upcoming articles. It gets a little harder from here.