Running Through the Numbers - Speed

PLUS A MAIDEN RACE REVIEW for 8/16 at Saratoga at the bottom.

When you look at the configurations of a new colt at the surface level, you have the ability to gain a rough picture of where he is heading. You gain a starting point of what he should or should not be doing based on his make-up.

Taking the route with their configurations on a very simplistic road, you have 3 main categories.

SPEED: Chefs index at 3.00 and over with 3.00 being the lower end of the speed spectrum.

MID-RANGE: Chef Index at 2.00 to 2.99 with severity of inheritance vastly affected by which end of that range they fall.

STAMINA: Chef index 1.99 and Under where distance ability dominates over the speed factor.

Since most all debut races fall in the 8f and under distances, with the majority at an average of 6.5f, it is very easy to determine whether or not a "stamina-driven" horse is capable of exhibiting speed against his dominating main build.

If Colt A is sporting:

DP = 0-0-9-1-2 (12) DI = 0.60   CD = -0.42

If Colt B is sporting:

DP = 2-7-3-0-0 (12) DI = 7.00   CD = 0.92

Which one would you say has the upper-hand in a 6f contest? Colt A inherited barely a drop of chef speed influence, whereas Colt B took in 7 times the amount of speed over stamina has depicted in his 7.00 index. There is no comparison at this distance.

One can easily see pure prepotency of extreme distance inheritance in Colt A, which puts his chances of exploding against a speed demon at 6.5f at an unbelievable disadvantage. Looking at his profile alone shows zero chef influence in both the brilliant (4f to 6f) and intermediate (7f to 9f) distances.

In no way, shape, or form would the 2 year old Colt A be built to work a 6f track on a speed favoring bias against Colt B holding a 7.00 index at 6f. If he succeeded in that debut, this would easily point out a major standout because he is built for 10f+ distances but has the hidden engine to demolish a sprinter. He would be one of the easiest potential Derby players to spot after one race.

In those first few early races, we are given the opportunity as horse players to witness first hand if a legitimate and easily read 10f horse has the necessary speed within him to compete in the Kentucky Derby. We gain evidence from Day One.

This is opposite when it comes to the Speed Category. Colt B is obviously built for a 6.5f debut. He was handed down the necessary speed ingredients to smoke this distance without breaking a sweat. Most likely, he demolishes the field on the favorable bias. He may in fact beat Colt B by 10 lengths at the wire.

In reality, we gain ZERO evidence of hidden capability to sustain that speed running 10f for the Kentucky Derby. He blasts his 6.5f debut. He'll continue to compete along the Derby Trail at distances between 7f and 9f, which are still within his optimum. We gain no visual outside contradicting factors as we can do with the stamina horses along the same trail.

FINDING EARLY EVIDENCE WITH COLT B:

1. The first and easiest evidence to procure would come from the Reines numbers. It is obvious that in order to compete at the 10f distance with these chefs numbers, his stamina would need to come from somewhere. Readable 10f capability to balance out all of that inherited speed.

2. If he doesn't qualify with those mares configurations, then the possibility of his Prominent Non-chefs, his immediate sire, his non-recognized sires, the St. Simon factor, could be consulted but all of that still remains speculative without visual evidence.

3. His running style could give clues. Generally speaking, a 7.00 colt would favor this dominance and would run out of that gate and right to the front. If he runs from the rear, reserving that speed in order to unleash it late, there is a possibility that he favors something that is stamina driven within his chart, similar to Sovereignty. If he stays in the rear and doesn't come late, 9 times out 10, the horse wants nothing to do with his inheritance at all, similar to Powerful from 2013.

4. The tracks that he competes on. Speed dominant horses running short gain an incredible upper-hand on speed favoring tracks, this is simply common sense. This is why you see many speed demons winning early races at facilities like Santa Anita and Parx. Of course a 7.00 colt is going to find easy success in these shorter races, especially at 2 years old in the summer. If this horse competed at 9f in the Jeff Ruby on AWS at Turfway Park and won it travelling gate to wire, well, that would be severe evidence of a horse running through his numbers.

   
   

Now, lets give Colt B two different possible mare configurations with two made-up names underneath those chefs numbers and dive in:

KYLE

Chefs DP = 2-7-3-0-0 (12) DI = 7.00   CD = 0.92 ANZ: 8.33

Mare Profile = 13-3-2-5-6   Speed = 16   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.63   Triads = 18-10-13

MIKEY

Chefs DP = 2-7-3-0-0 (12) DI = 7.00   CD = 0.92 ANZ: 8.33

Mare Profile = 3-5-5-9-4   Speed = 8   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.73   Triads = 13-19-18

Discussing Point #1, the ease of readable 10f capability between the two couldn't be any more transparent. They both have the exact same scale and balance from their chefs but Kyle's mares are dumping even more speed into his already overflowing tilt.

Look at the mares profile first. Kyle (13-3-2-5-8) accepted more ingredients in the first slot with a dominating 13 points. This first slot is the Brilliant category which is high inheritance in the 4f to 6ft distance. When you add up the Brilliant and Intermediate slots (1st and 2nd numbers - 4f to 9f) you get 13 + 3 = 16 which is depicted in his Speed = 16 on the scale.

This is double what Mikey (3-5-5-9-4) received from his mares. 3 + 5 = 8.

On the stamina side with the mares, Mikey's inherited dominance is in the 4 slot of the profile with a 9 in the Solid slot (13f to 15f). When you add up the last two numbers, which is Solid and Professional (16f+) 9 + 4 = 13, his scale tilts in the proper direction whereas Kyle's goes backwards.

The triads are spelled out easily for both of these guys.

Triads are read like this:

Kyle: Reines Profile = 13-3-2-5-6 Triads = 18-10-13

Mikey: Reines Profile = 3-5-5-9-4 Triads = 13-19-18

The first number is the speed side total: Brilliant (4f-6f) + Intermediate (7f-9f) + Classic (10f-12f)

Kyle: 13 + 3 + 2 = 18

Mikey: 3 + 5 + 5 = 13

The second number is the Classic distance total: Intermediate (7f-9f) + Classic (10f-12f) + Solid (13f-15f)

Kyle: 3 + 2 + 5 = 10

Mikey: 5 + 5 + 9 = 19

The Third number is the extreme Stamina side: Classic (10f-12f) + Solid (13f-15f) + Professional (16f+)

Kyle: 2 + 5 + 6 = 13

Mikey: 5 + 9 + 4 = 18

Mare index:

Kyle: 1.63 Over .90 is speed territory. At 1.63, this is MAJOR SPEED

Mikey: .73 Below .90 begins to slide into stamina territory. At .73, is well within the stamina range.

6.5f debut outlook and reading through the numbers:

By all accounts and based on inheritance alone, Kyle should be in the drivers seat in a 6.5f debut race. He is all speed, top and bottom, perfectly set up for such a short distance. Based on the alignment of his configurations, he should run out of that gate and up towards the front, if not on the lead itself. Custom built for a 6.5f contest. This is exactly what both his chefs and his mares numbers are telling us and this would be his place to shine.

Let's say that he does the opposite. He stays midpack or rear and then he unleashes his speed late to win the race. This would give us a bit of evidence that he is capturing something extra outside of his stated configurations.

Mikey, on the other hand, has the inherited jets from his Chefs (and prominent non-chefs) to smoke this short race as well, and he has the inbred stamina to sustain that speed easily for the full 6.5f. He has a choice to favor his chefs (extreme speed) and run up front or he also could choose to favor his mares (dominant stamina) and run from the back. One debut will give us the answer.

Between the two in a 6.5f debut, there would be no question that my money would be on Mikey for this debut even though Kyle is built wonderfully for the distance. Both with the 7.00 high speed inheritance but with an immature colt on debut, nerves will eat into that energy. He may be too keen to escape the gate and the bias may sweep him even faster. With Mikey holding all of the extra stamina ALONG WITH 7 to 8x in inherited speed, he is the obvious choice here.

Derby Player and reading through the numbers:

Mikey would have no reason to need to run through his numbers in order to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby, he simply has to run to them all the way.

In his case, having a 7.00 chef index along with an 8.33 ANZ figure, this guy has enough inherited speed to compete along the way. Any extra from the mares would be way too much and easily could dilute his inherited stamina. Even though 19 is the magic number across each slot in the triads, it must be taken in context and on a case by case basis.

The 13-19-18 configurations enhance his balance, it does not overtly tip the scale even further on the speed side. They are perfect sitting underneath his chefs figures. Mikey is a Derby player without question - if, and only if, we get evidence in his debut that he has a will and determination to compete against his friends. That is all that is necessary with the way his numbers fall. He has Kentucky Derby numbers, no question about it. Now he has to demonstrate to us that he has accepted that chart.

Kyle is definitely far removed from 10f Derby material based on his numbers. Since he does not hit points one and two listed above, he would absolutely need to depict points three and four. Based on history, he has a 99% chance of failing miserably at that task.

WHO IS "MIKEY"?

This colt will be debuting tomorrow at Saratoga.

He will be competing with a full field of 10.

His real name is Hero Declared.

He is the son of Maclean's Music and Wild at Midnight, trained by D. Beckman. That is him running with an incredible stride length in the video up top.

If he runs to his numbers tomorrow, this horse will be heading straight to the Kentucky Derby.

We need pure evidence that he is accepting his chart as it lays and has the capability to beat any sprinters he faces.

The field he faces at this 6.5f distance is not too shabby and he'll have his work cut out for him. This race is loaded with potential talent. There are a few on this list that are built for the Kentucky Derby and the highest quality of them all will prevail in this race.

8/16/2025 Saratoga Race 7

6.5f Maiden

READING POTENTIAL FROM A DEBUT

Post 1: TALKIN Good Magic

DP = 1-3-4-2-0 (10) DI = 1.50   CD = 0.30 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 5-7-4-9-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.91   Triads = 16-20-18

If this guy makes any noise in this race, he would be a major standout and a player moving forward. If he fails it would not mean that he is a bad horse, it would be because he is highly disadvantaged for this distance against these speedier foes and really should not be entered here. He will be running against the grain, but again, this gives the viewer an opportunity to see if there is anything lurking beyond the stated configurations. He really doesn't belong here so any effort would be striking.

Post 2: GOOD ILLUSION Good Magic

DP = 2-8-4-0-0 (14) DI = 6.00   CD = 0.86 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 4-7-4-10-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.79   Triads = 15-21-19

Absolutely killer configurations that are on par and assembled very similar to Hero Declared. Everything that was said about Hero Declared pertains to this guy as well. Being the son of Good Magic, most likely there would be a bit of extra stamina that could be attached which could hit into the 6.5f distance negatively. This would not mean he is a bad horse, it would simply means that he favors his sire and his mares and the distance may have been too short for his build. However, if he shows competitive speed that matches his 6.00/7.00 indexes, put him in your virtual stable immediately.

Post 3: RENEGADE Into Mischief

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 18-22-18

Into Mischief colt with the typical well-placed configurations. Perfectly set up for this 6.5f contest and highly advantaged. The .63 chef CD is excellent for the Derby but could affect this shorter distance. Depiction of speed capability is necessary here as we move forward on the trail. Style of running is also important with this guy. He has the bias on his side for both this race and the Derby.

Post 4: ALGHERO Quality Road

DP = 3-6-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 10-2-2-4-10   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-8-16

Bottom of the speed spectrum through his chefs and split with his mares. This is the type that will gravitate to one side or the other, basically balanced on both sides fairly evenly. This (usually) shows no cause for a major explosion from one side or the other. A 6.5f, a major explosion of speed would be a necessity, so he will need to find it from somewhere. If he does, he would be running through his numbers, which means he would then need to be tracked. This a major ask against this field, very rare, but it happens and we need to be able to look past the numbers if he should somehow breakthrough here. He is not configured properly for the Kentucky Derby so he would be one to consider other factors should he rise above here.

Post 5: HERO DECLARED Macleans Music

DP = 2-7-3-0-0 (12) DI = 7.00   CD = 0.92 ANZ = 8.33

Mare Profile = 3-5-5-9-4   Speed = 8   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.73   Triads = 13-19-18

Built like a brickhouse for this contest as well as for the 10f Kentucky Derby. Highest expectations that he runs directly in line with these configurations. He is built with basically the same balance as Good Illusion, although the ingredients came from completely different families. We'll see how the two charts stack up. Very interested to see the running style of both, how they compete at this short 6.5f distance and how they handle themselves on debut in the post parade. This horse was flying at the OBS in that video with an incredible stride length and finally he debuts. Main player here based on early works, stride length, and hefty loaded configurations. We'll see how it plays out at 6.5f, but the magic will continue way past this distance.

Post 6: IT'S OUR TIME Not This Time

DP = 2-3-9-0-0 (14) DI = 2.11   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.44

Mare Profile = 1-12-5-11-1   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.06   Triads = 18-28-17

Gorgeous numbers in the same "Simplification" way but with even more additional inherited speed through his prominent non-chefs. This guy is a huge threat in this 6.5f race mainly due to the 3.44 ANZ figure along with that additional Not This Time speedy quality. Excellent mare numbers as he moves forward as well. The one point drop in the mare balance is okay because his 2.11 index offsets. One to watch closely regardless of placement here - win or lose.

Post 7: COST EFFECTIVE Into Mischief

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 4.33

Mare Profile = 6-9-5-6-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.13   Triads = 20-20-17

Another typically configured Into Mischief colt sporting even more additional speed than his rival Renegade in Post 3. Set up just fine for this 6.5f race but would need to show additional evidence going forward that he can run through this set-up. This would come from running style and track biases along the route.

Post 8: FOREVER MAN Bolt Doro

DP = 3-6-4-1-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 8-3-6-5-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.09   Triads = 17-14-17

This guy has similarities to Alghero in that he is even more balanced on his scale, not hefty one side or the other. Even his chefs drop his speed from 3.57 down to 3.00 while his mares are perfectly balanced. It's not a bad thing but it isn't striking enough. Should he show some competitiveness here, we would need to track him, otherwise, its not good enough in terms of Triple Crown material.

Post 9: TIGER ROCKET Munnings

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 5-4-7-9-5   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.81   Triads = 16-20-21

Wow. Wow. Wow. Damsire Into Mischief. Killer configurations for the future, but how does he handle the 6.5f debut against this crew? ANZ rises to 5.67 and drenched in stamina. These are 10f Kentucky Derby numbers and he would absolutely need to capture that 5.67 figure to make a dent here. If he does not, it is not because he is a bad horse, it would be because he is favoring everything else. Race placement moving forward would be imperative after this start. He has 5 star Derby configurations but it would seem that his entire career revolves around that 5.67 for this particular path he begins on. It would be a shame if he doesn't reveal it because we may never get the opportunity to see his true build in action. Very strong numbers for the future but he is definitely not a 6.5f speed demon on the surface.

Post 10: SUPREME GOOD Supremacy

DP = 0-0-2-0-0 (2) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.00 ANZ = 1.67

Mare Profile = 4-6-3-10-8   Speed = 10   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.59   Triads = 13-19-21

Lord, have mercy!! These are the types of configurations that you see at the very bottom of the stamina spectrum on any give Kentucky Derby Analysis year after year. These are on par with Code of Honor, Instilled Regard, Epicenter. Absolutely stellar, but what the heck is he doing in a 6.5f debut with this crew? Without question, he walks into this gate with the highest obstacle and disadvantage on the field. If he cannot compete, you must understand that he is not built in the slightest for this race which means, if he hits any spot on the trifecta, he would be displaying speed that is non-existent within the configurations as they stand. In addition, his balance suggests that he will be a rear runner, so if he displays early quick speed to compete up front, that would be a sign as well. With those two points to consider, any deviation would therefore point to an instant monster because of it. He needs to portray speed against his build - an extremely tall ask - but any sign of initiative here is a sign of hope that he won't get lost along his path. His stamina-leaning inheritance is a huge obstacle to overcome at 6.5f on a speed favoring bias. He'll be the easiest to read after the race, win or lose.