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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Pool Two - 2021 Derby Futures

Into Mischief

A Quick Reference for Pool Two - Twinspires Kentucky Derby Futures

Bezos (Empire Maker)

DP = 9-11-12-0-2 (34) DI = 3.25 CD = 0.74

Mare Profile = 6-3-3-6-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.72 Triads = 12-12-17

This Baffert horse has not run a race yet and (pathetically) is an entry in this Pool for the Kentucky Derby while Lemon Pop and Excellent Timing are missing. Go figure. He is only here because he is from the Baffert Barn. I hate to say it but the combinations aren't half bad for the 10f Derby. High Points Total, Speed horse with a .74 CD and a 5 point spread favoring mare stamina. Looking into a crystal ball, I would bet my entire Derby Bankroll that Bezos will be a lead runner and hyped by Baffert as the greatest horse since Pharoah. His workouts are nothing to write home about but I am sure that he will be quite the "super horse" as soon as he hits the track.

Caddo River (Hard Spun)

DP = 4-6-14-0-0 (24) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 7-3-4-8-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 14-15-18

He will need to percolate for awhile, maybe pool three. The numbers are iffy but we dont know yet how he will progress with these midrange numbers. He is only a maiden winner with so-so numbers. Not now.

Capo Kane (Street Sense)

DP = 4-2-10-2-0 (18) DI = 1.57 CD = 0.44

Mare Profile = 6-6-3-14-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.91 Triads = 15-23-20

These numbers are excellent for the Derby. His style of running is also perfect. He might not be the fastest colt out and about right now but that fact means nothing if these speedier guys can't get the distance. Capo Kane can get the distance. Hopefully his speed on the lead continues to prosper.

Concert Tour (Street Sense)

DP = 4-4-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 6-9-0-9-5 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.11 Triads = 15-18-14

Unlike his half brother, this Street Sense son doesn't have a prayer at 10f. The mares stole his endurance. No chance.

Essential Quality (Tapit)

DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-2-12 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-7-16

He's got some class in him and he has Tapit, so he has the distance. He also has 32 loaded points, but 3.00 Tapit colts usually suffer in the Derby. Your call.

Fire At Will (Declaration of War)

DP = 4-5-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 3-9-3-9-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.75 Triads = 15-21-18

Declaration of War son who has the distance. He would not be entering the gate with an advantage but depending on the dynamics of the final Derby field, we can at least give a nod to the ability and the breeding for the 10f without blinking an eye.

Greatest Honour (Tapit)

DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 8-6-0-8-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.92 Triads = 14-14-16

Another Tapit Colt with the distance. 3.00 Index. Refer to Essential Quality.

Highly Motivated (Into Mischief)

DP = 1-1-1-1-0 (4) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 2-8-9-7-3 Speed = 10 Stamina = 10 Index = 0.95 Triads = 19-24-19

This Into Mischief Colt has stamina on top which is opposite of many that have been let loose in recent years. He is configured very much like Vyjack was, which is very deceiving. There is nice stamina on top but very minimal chefs which means the top influence will not come from there. His triads are loaded which is fantastic but there is a very good chance that this guy will see 9f and then pack it in. The mares balance is low and perfectly even which in turn offers no additional stamina above and beyond the 10 speed points. Since he only has 4 points in his chefs profile, the mares will be much more influential and this is not enough to compensate. This is textbook as far as the speed/stamina balance for this type of lower chef indexed colt. He is very doubtful for the 10f based on the mare's balance. Keep him on the backburner for now but it doesn't look promising past 9f.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow)

DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 11-1-5-11-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.27 Triads = 17-17-19

More stamina on top with the chefs, speed coming from the mares. These numbers are just shy of winning Derby Numbers but they are at least on par with a board hit. He has a ton of speed in the brilliant slot of his mares, with equal inheritance in his Solid Slot. This combination is getting him to 9.1f but his speed will allow him to get a bit further. Still, not quite enough.

Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music)

DP = 4-10-8-0-0 (22) DI = 4.50 CD = 0.82

Mare Profile = 8-6-2-5-9 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-13-16

He is a glorified Miler and should not be entered into any race further than 8.5f. His mares fall very short.

Life Is Good (Into Mischief)

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-8-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.13 Triads = 19-19-18

Baffert Hyped Clone Lead Colt. Configurations exactly like Authentic/Audible. Will probably win the Derby based on the barn and the feed. You're on your own here.

Mandaloun (Into Mischief)

DP = 2-3-1-0-0 (6) DI = 11.00 CD = 1.17

Mare Profile = 2-9-6-10-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.95 Triads = 17-25-18

With this Into Mischief son, the extreme 11.00 chef index gets knocked out by the greater Mare Influence. Based on this guy's running style and his acceleration late in his last two races, he is showing that the 25 extreme high points in the Stamina center slot of his triads is truly being used to its full capacity. If the first Saturday in May ends up raining, this guy would be a must use.

Medina Spirit (Protonico)

DP = 3-6-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-8-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.81 Triads = 15-17-19

Where he lacks in speed numbers, he gains in stamina numbers. He will not be quite as fast as others in the early Derby preps and that is because his blood leans him more to the stamina side. He has the distance, but he will most likely fall short on the speed side against the speed monsters who will be in that gate with him at Churchill. He appears to be a very good horse, well rounded, and will thrive longer as the speed guys get weeded out. This is one Baffert guy who can do it on his own merit, but he will have a disadvantage based on his Mid-range chef configurations. Surely, Baffert can throw him a bit of "speed feed" to counteract the top stamina - and if he does, this horse can go the distance with the best of them.

Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow)

DP = 4-2-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 9-3-3-5-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.20 Triads = 15-11-14

Zero chance at 10f. No way. No how. 101% confident in this. Good for the road, never in the Derby.

Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief)

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-6-4-8-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-18-17

Yet another Into Mischief son with basically the same configurations, this time coming from the Pletcher barn. Falls slightly short as usual, more influence from the mares, even across the board.

Olympiad (Speightstown)

DP = 8-9-12-1-0 (30) DI = 3.29 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 9-3-5-2-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.13 Triads = 17-10-15

The mares contribution would never work at 10f with a field of 20. Never.

Prate (Into Mischief)

DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 2-10-7-10-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.91 Triads = 19-27-20

This Into Mischief son is a little different than the rest on this list. Even though his mares will be more influential like half brothers, he is at least starting at a 2.20 chef index. Not quite as high as the others. These mares numbers are the best of the group and more conducive to the 10f. He's had one race so far at 6f and laid off the pace with nice fast fractions, gearing down to win by 4-1/4. This colt is very promising going forward and his set-up is unique enough to make him stand-out among all of these Into Mischief sons. He also has a W configuration in his mares profile which drops him dead center of the Classic Distance. Not a bad shot to play in the futures. Unique numbers are not boring or stagnant and just the type to peak interest.

Prime Factor (Quality Road)

DP = 3-6-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 8-4-1-7-11 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.70 Triads = 13-12-19

The 10f distance is absolutely here. The mares balance tilts 6 points over to the stamina side. Belmont stamina and yet won his 6f maiden race out on the lead by 8-3/4 lengths. This is exactly the configuration, style and performance that calls out a complete MidRange Category Colt. Absolute Must on any futures bet. Pletcher is holding a live one.

Senor Buscador (Mineshaft)

DP = 9-8-13-0-0 (30) DI = 3.62 CD = 0.87

Mare Profile = 7-6-2-6-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.79 Triads = 15-14-18

His numbers contradict his running style a great deal. That always raises a red flag. His chefs numbers are spot on to make noise in the Derby but his mares numbers fall slightly short. The fact that he is backing away from his chefs in his style but retaining that speed makes him extremely intriguing and quite different from the rest. Not sure if he is worth some money in a Futures Pool Bet but something about him is making him standout - in a very good way.

Spielberg (Union Rags)

DP = 7-6-12-1-0 (26) DI = 2.71 CD = 0.73

Mare Profile = 7-6-2-9-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-17-18

He resembles his fathers numbers on top, but that is where it ends. The mares configurations are nowhere near his sire's. who was packed in stamina. These numbers suffer a great deal in the Derby but Spielberg is a Baffert Boy. So...whatever.

Wipe the Slate (Nyquist)

DP = 1-5-0-0-0 (6) DI = Inf CD = 1.17

Mare Profile = 7-2-6-6-7 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.85 Triads = 15-14-19

Very Risky at this point. He does hold more stamina from his mares, which will be more influential to him over his chefs. He has done very well with his speed up to 7f so far but the mares profile is split, and it is way too early at this point to see which way his wind will blow. By the looks of his resume so far, 10f is looking rough but since it is split we have to see his decision at least up to 8.5f first.

All Others

A must use at this stage of the game. Too many great colts with perfect 10f breeding missing from this pool.


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