Important info for those who follow Dosage...
I was doing some research over the weekend for the upcoming Travers Stakes and noticed something was terribly wrong at Pedigree-query and I wanted to make sure that you were all aware of it. It is especially important at this time of the year to have complete and accurate information with reference to handicapping maiden races if you use dosage information in conjunction with your normal handicapping. It is also imperative that these numbers are 100% accurate when researching the historical relevance with regard to past Graded Stakes editions as well.
If the numbers are incorrect, the data is useless.
It does appear to me that someone may have tampered with the designations of certain sires and took it upon themselves to upgrade them to chefs without the consent of Mr. Stephen Miller (in conjunction with Dr. Roman).
While researching for the Travers, the first name I looked into was Catholic Boy, winner of last years edition. Catholic Boy has a 2.08 chef dosage number. Now it reads 4.18 which is incorrect. Somehow his sire, More than Ready, has been magically designated a Brilliant/Intermediate chef. He is not. I did contact Mr. Miller and he told me that he did not nor was notified of any changes to the designations. More than Ready is NOT a chef. This information is incorrect. More importantly, Catholic Boy is not a 4.18 horse. Not even close to it. Now imagine if that had been a new 2 year old entered into his debut race. Without a second thought, one might bet a ton on that horse in a 6f debut while in reality he was actually a 2.08 horse with a severe disadvantage. This is terribly bad and only diminishes and tarnishes the dosage theory even further.
I continued on with looking into the charts of past Travers winners and came to Will Take Charge. The dosage information lists him as a 4.67 index horse. This is incorrect. Something happened at that website and if not aware, one could really make some terrible handicapping mistakes.
Maximum Security has gone from a 3.00 index horse to 1.93 because someone decided to designate Street Cry as a Classic Chef. This is incorrect.
Next, I typed in Shared Belief. The Champ is a 1.40 index horse. Today, his index says 3.00. Somebody took it upon themselves to designate Storm Cat as an Intermediate Chef. This is incorrect. The numbers, as written on that site, are useless. Over and over, each horse I randomly typed in was wrong. This is absolutely horrible for so many reasons.
In the first place, those who have a very weak knowledge of dosage theory and who continually find it necessary to bash the tremendous work of Dr. Roman and others will now have incorrect numbers to site baseless attacks against the data. Secondly, those who are not aware and rely on the numbers without the formulas or the knowledge to double check these numbers will inevitably lump incorrect data into their case against Dosage. I can not get it out of my head that this somehow was done on purpose within the last month. Additionally, those who are not die-hard users of dosage numbers, the type that could just look at an index and know immediately that it is incorrect will now be looking at completely bogus information which could affect their wallet. Incorrect data is like a deadly cancer.
I have contacted Pedigree-query and we shall see if they fix this. In the mean time, if you use these numbers in your handicapping, you must stop. Much is incorrect and it appears it is all skewing to excessive speed. I have not even attempted to look into the mares numbers yet which at this point I am wary of as well. Going forward, I will be doing the numbers on my own checking each chef and using the formulas to get 100% accurate numbers. At this moment, the numbers at Pedigree-query are far from accurate. I will not stop until things are fixed on that site and I will continue to pursue it.
Until then, if you use the numbers at that site, do not rely on them as they are typed. Most all of them are incorrect. I will do the numbers on my own going forward and I will post only accurate information here.
The only way to have accurate information is to go through each sire on a chart, double-check to make sure they are listed and verified chefs and which category or categories they are assigned.
Next is to distinguish which generation they fall within the chart (one through four) and assign points follows:
1st generation .... 16 points
2nd generation ..... 8 points
3rd generation ...... 4 points
4th generation ...... 2 points
You must also split points if the chef has two designations.
To calculate the Index:
Brilliant + Intermediate + 1/2 Classic <DIVIDED BY> Solid + Professional + 1/2 Classic = Index
To calculate the CD:
(Brilliant x 2) + Intermediate <MINUS> Solid + (Professional x 2) <DIVIDED BY> Total Points = CD
The most important thing is to have the correct designation for each chef which is something that Pedigree-query has decided to change dramatically for some reason. This change is 101% inaccurate and incorrect.
DO NOT RELY on their numbers. I would encourage all who use that site for their information to take the time to point out the incorrect dosage information and the incorrect assignment of sires as chefs by sending an email directly to them through their site. The more people that bring this to their attention, the faster that they will clean up their site. Spending money to gain information on horses and relying on that information for handicapping is pointless if the information is wrong.
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