Matt Winn Stakes - Churchill, 7-7-2026, Notes
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Matt Winn Stakes
Churchill Downs 8.5f Sunday June 7, 2026
Past Winners
2025 East Avenue DP = 5-9-28-2-0 (44) DI = 1.75 Â CD = 0.39 Triads = 18-10-13 Medaglia Doro
2024 Society Man DP = 2-7-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20 Â CD = 0.46 Triads = 14-23-20 Good Magic
2023 Disarm DP = 5-4-21-0-0 (30) DI = 1.86 Â CD = 0.47 Triads = 15-17-20 Gun Runner
2022 Cyberknife DP = 4-4-14-0-0 (22) DI = 2.14 Â CD = 0.55 Triads = 10-19-23 Gun Runner
2021 Fulsome DP = 10-5-20-1-0 (36) DI = 2.27 Â CD = 0.67 Triads = 19-23-16 Into Mischief
2020 Maxfield DP = 3-6-13-0-0 (22) DI = 2.38 Â CD = 0.55 Triads = 15-17-17 Street Sense
2019 Mr. Money DP = 4-7-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.68 Triads = 14-18-18 Goldencents
2018 King Zachary DP = 6-4-32-0-0 (42) DI = 1.63 Â CD = 0.38 Triads = 12-16-20 Curlin
2017 McCraken DP = 7-4-12-0-1 (24) DI = 2.43 Â CD = 0.67 Triads = 17-22-20 Ghostzapper
2016 Gun Runner DP = 9-2-26-1-0 (38) DI = 1.71 Â CD = 0.50 Triads = 11-18-20 Candy Ride
Over the past ten years:
Chef indexes between 1.75 to 2.43. The one exception to the rule: Mr. Money at 3.00 in 2019.
Triads ASCEND. One major exception: East Avenue, but offset by low chef index, a very low CD and 44 chefs points.
Minor exception is Fulsome, but he was sired by Into Mischief and that it is normal to be slightly lower in the final slot.
2026 Entries:
STOP THE CAR Brendan Walsh Tyler Gaffalione
DP = 1-9-10-0-0 (20) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.55 Triads = 15-12-18 Maximum Security
3/21/26 Jeff Ruby - AWS 9f Turfway    RPR = 86 Rear, 4th place Half: 47.00
1/18/26 Lecomte 8.5f Fair Grounds RPR = 88 Midpack, 7th place Half: 47.00
I'll be quick with this guy, He sits on par with a couple in this field as a potential straggler for 4th place if placing a superfecta wager - but based on his recent speed in his last two dirt races in the Pat Day Mile and the Lecomte along with his configurations, I have to take a pass. In the Pat Day Mile specifically, he did roll up to grab a 3rd place, but he ran from the rear into a 44.20 and passed retreating horses. I can't see the Matt Winn with a 44 second half. Pass.
POTENTE Bob Baffert Florent Geroux
DP = 9-4-15-0-0 (28) DI = 2.73 Â CD = 0.79 Triads = 18-26-19 Into Mischief
5/2/26 Kentucky Derby 10f Churchill RPR = 101 Midpack, 12th place Half: 46.44
4/3/26 Santa Anita Derby 9f Santa Anita RPR = 103 Lead, 2nd place Half: 46.79
3/7/26 San Felipe 8.5f Santa Anita RPR = 107 4th position, Won Half: 46.62
It’s too obvious that this race belongs to either Further Ado or Potente. Boxing the top two like everyone else won’t pay a dime. A stand must be taken. Potente posted an RPR of 107 at 8.5 furlongs, which is on par with Further Ado’s figure in the Tampa Bay Derby at the same distance. (The race that many say Further Ado regressed while still matching figures with Potente - this says alot.) The two are neck-and-neck at this distance so far, with Potente posting that figure on a slicker bias as well on the West Coast. Potente sat just off a very legitimate pace in that race and scored naturally. He then stretched out to 9 furlongs at Santa Anita, attempting a gate-to-wire victory, only to get caught late by So Happy. Taking that race at face value, Potente wins there if it had been only 8.5 furlongs. This sets up a key guessing game: Will Baffert instruct Florent Geroux to match strides with Pavlovian from the gate and fight for the lead? That scenario would force a faster pace - one Potente can handle comfortably. Given Baffert’s track record, it’s not an unreasonable idea. Pavlovian would eventually fade, leaving Potente with momentum and ideal positioning. The only way Further Ado beats him is by repeating his dominant Blue Grass performance. At this shorter distance, Further Ado’s jets should be fully intact, on his recurring bias, and I see him flying as usual well before the final turn.
PAVLOVIAN Doug O'Neill Luis Saez
DP = 1-1-5-1-0 (8) DI = 1.29 Â CD = 0.25Â Triads = 18-11-13 Pavel
5/2/26 Kentucky Derby 10f Churchill Eased at the Far Turn, Last
3/21/26 Louisiana Derby 9.5f Fair Grounds RPR = 106 Lead, 2nd by a Head Half: 46.23
2/15/26 Sunland Derby 8.5f Sunland Park RPR = 106 Stalk, Won Half: 46.40
1/17/26 Cal Cup 8.5f Santa Anita RPR = 96 Rear, 3rd place Half: 48.38
His configurations balance almost exactly like East Avenue’s from last year, but with one major flaw. East Avenue carried a hefty 44 Chef points, which completely discounts his mare’s line. If Pavlovian secures the lead, he should set a much swifter pace than Corona. At this distance and beyond, Pavlovian has consistently run sub-47 second calls, while Corona’s past results show him sustaining fractions over 47. Both Further Ado and Potente are more than capable of handling a faster early pace, but if Corona gets the lead, Further Ado has already proven he can still demolish a field even at a much slower pace. Pavlovian only recently began running on the front end - the bulk of his races have come from midpack or farther back - so his running style remains unpredictable. He’s a West Coast runner who found success traveling east for the LA Derby, though it was still in relatively balmy conditions. Competitive? Yes. Better than the rest? No.
OUR MONEYMAN Bret Calhoun Axel Concepcion
DP = 5-5-10-0-0 (20) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.75 Triads = 15-13-20 Mr. Money
No racing Post Stats.
His sire won this race back in 2019, so it’s understandable to take a shot with him. When comparing board-hit probability for the 4th-place spot, Our Moneyman and Taptastic are basically a wash. Our Moneyman’s late Beyer figures from his last two races at the distance aren’t half bad, and he handled 47-second opening fractions in both — albeit against weak company. A faster pace in this race could heighten his chances even more - making his late move around the final turn and grabbing a piece of the pie, while Taptastic runs with more even energy and should be in a better position with sustained speed. Seems best in this case to double up on that unpredictable 4th-place slot.
CORONA de ORO Dallas Stewart Brian Hernandez, Jr.
DP = 5-5-17-3-0 (30) DI = 1.61 Â CD = 0.40 Triads = 16-10-19 Bolt d'Oro
5/16/26 Preakness Stakes 9.5f Laurel Park RPR = 81 Bad start, Rear, 11th Half: 46.66
4/11/26 Lexington Stakes 8.5f Keeneland RPR = 101 Lead, 3rd Half: 47.92
Just like Pavlovian, you simply don’t know what running style you’re going to get with him either. The Preakness is a toss; Johnny V made a mess of the ride. Even though the horse has shown very good energy distribution at this distance, unfortunately he seems very slow while doing it. Against this crew, even the second tier, he falls short on speed at this shorter distance. Dallas Stewart always seems to bust up the party, so if you’re superstitious in that regard, it will cost you extra. I’ll pass.
TAPTASTIC Steve Asmussen Jose Ortiz
DP = 5-11-37-1-0 (54) DI = 1.77 Â CD = 0.37 Triads = 14-13-17 Tapit
3/28/26 Arkansas Derby 9f Oaklawn RPR = 97 Stalk, held for 3rd place Half: 47.80
His 54 total profile points stand out like a sore thumb, but he is overtly dominant in the Classic distance and this is an 8.5f race, that demands speed-driven for the win. Another with steady energy distribution who may capitalize if positioned closer to the pace. He failed terribly at Churchill last out at the same distance - with allowance company. That isn't a great way to enter the Matt Winn; however, that position was buried further back on an 11 horse field. This time it's only an 8 horse field, which gives him some leeway to get back on track further up and closer to the pace. His excellent distribution of energy and massive stamina prowess, could allow him to hold steady closer to the final three at the top of the stretch.
FURTHER ADO Brad Cox Irad Ortiz, Jr.
DP = 4-3-13-0-0 (20) DI = 2.08 Â CD = 0.55 Triads = 14-15-19 Gun Runner
5/2/26 Kentucky Derby 10f Churchill RPR = 102 Midpack, 11th place Half: 46.44
4/4/26 Blue Grass 9f Keeneland RPR = 117 Stalk, Won Half: 47.71
3/7/26 Tampa Bay Derby 8.5f Tampa Bay RPR = 108 Stalk, 2nd Place Half: 46.68
11/29/25 Ky Jockey Club 8.5f Churchill RPR = 101 Stalk, Won Half: 46.76
The Kentucky Derby is a toss for all concerned. Not a realistic measure to be taken seriously given all the circumstances that surround that race. Over the past ten years, not only has Further Ado’s sire won this race, but two other Gun Runner colts - Disarm and Cyberknife - have also taken home the trophy. That’s a lot of royalty for the Matt Winn. As we all know, Candy Ride sons and grandsons tend to skyrocket after the Triple Crown, regardless of where they finished in the Kentucky Derby. An easy case can be made for both Further Ado and Potente to win this showdown. However, with Irad Ortiz Jr. back aboard in Kentucky, and the prospect of a clean trip with no banging, steadying, or running six-wide, the best-performing colt in this field is Further Ado. Genetics go a long way under ideal conditions. The only real problem Further Ado may face is if Baffert sends Potente gate-to-wire in this short 8.5f race. If that happens, Further Ado will need a strong repeat of his dominant Blue Grass performance.
STEEL IMPERIUM Caio Caramori Vincent Cheminaud
DP = 3-6-18-1-0 (28) DI = 1.80 Â CD = 0.39 Triads = 15-12-18 Essential Quality
5/2/26 American Turf 8.5f Churchill (Turf) RPR = 83 Rear, 9th place Half: 47.13
3/21/26 Rushaway Stakes 8.5f Turfway (AWS) RPR = 92 Rear, 2nd place Half: 48.02
2/21/26 John Battaglia 8.5f Turfway (AWS) RPR = 79 Rear, 5th place Half: 48.84
He has four career races on his resume: three on all-weather surfaces (AWS) and one on turf. A rear-running type, he has tackled three previous "slow-lead-tier" races. He won his maiden debut at Turfway on AWS in a 6-furlong race, posting a quick opening half in 46.16. Jockey Cheminaud returns to the mount, having guided him to his best effort to date - a second-place finish in the 8.5f Rushaway. The big question is whether he can improve on dirt, especially with a realistic shot at a faster early pace similar to his maiden win. His Kris S and Tapit influences should help, but his speed figures would need a significant jump when switching surfaces. Unfortunately, his 13 prior dirt workouts offer little encouragement in the speed department.
1st - Further Ado
2nd - Potente
3rd - Pavlovian
4th - Our Moneyman, Taptastic