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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Louisiana Derby Winning Style

written by William Dirr

In preparation for the Louisiana Derby, I took a look back at the last 8 previous winners. It turns out, I started to see a repeating pattern.

The first thing that popped out was the running style in which the winner won the race.

*Now I want everyone to know, I consider a front runner as 1st through 3rd position from the ¼ mile pole and forward. I consider a stalker as 4th through 6th (depending on field size) from the ¼ mile pole and forward. Anything further back I classify as a closer.*

The last 5 of the 8 winners of the Louisiana Derby were Front runners. The other 3 were Stalkers. This does not bode well for the closers in this race.

The second thing I saw was the last 6 out of 8 winners hit triple digit Equibase figures in their final race prior to the Louisiana Derby.

The two that did not at least hit low to mid 90’s on the Equibase figure line.

So where does the 2024 Louisiana Derby entrants line up?

Well, after looking at each of the horses three prior races:

There are only 2 Front runners in the entire field - Antiquarian and Track Phantom.

There are only 3 Stalkers in the field - Awesome Ruta, Common Defense, and Hall of Fame.

That leaves the rest of the field as closers, which as of this writing, is seven out of the twelve entrants!

Also, Common Defense was the only one to hit the triple digit Equibase figures in his last race.

Additionally, the only other two in this field to even reach the triple digit mark are Agate Road and Track Phantom.

This all adds up to only two horses that fit both the recent patterns.

These two are Common Defense and Track Phantom.

Interesting enough, they both drew outside posts. Will this help them or hurt them?

With only a few horses with speed on the inside, will anyone else step up?

Hall Of Fame ran a good figure two races ago with his only front running style.

Will this be the time he goes towards the lead?

Will the pace be fast so maybe a big time closer like Agate Road or Honor Marie can pick up the pieces?

All I can guarantee is by Saturday evening, we will see if the recent history of the Louisiana Derby strikes again.

Or, like much of this 2024 Derby trail, we are all left with more questions than answers!


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