Let's Talk Horses

We are just 36 days and 8 more preps away from the 152nd Kentucky Derby. It is time to re-evaluate and organize these players in order to get a handle on exactly what we are up against this year. There is no doubt that this edition is filled to the brim with exceptionally built characters as opposed to last year.

Using history as a guide and taking some points from the article from January 1st, "From Two Years Old to Derby Glory" let's take a moment to see where these guys stand against their peers. The similarities and common threads are abundant this year.

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INTO MISCHIEF - First and Second Generation:

Into Mischief offspring are automatically advantaged for the Kentucky Derby because every aspect across the board perfectly aligns with the history of winning configurations. Basically, the sire passes down a perfect blend of balanced speed and stamina, and a nicely aligned scale with very weighty mare bloodlines. That balance gives them high inbred speed for the shorter distances of the preps, along with ample stamina for the 10f, that is, energy to sustain that speed. Generally, an offspring of Into Mischief (1st or 2nd generation) will pass down very high Roman and ANZ indexes (major inbred speed) and the mares dotted throughout the chart will impart a balanced scale across the board for distances. The loaded triads depict an abundance of "reines" elite bloodlines going back 120 years and when it comes to Into Mischief, those triads are loaded to the brim. These specific ingredients are exactly what history has dictated over the years for the Kentucky Derby, regardless of sire.

NAME	Roman Index	ANZ Index	Mare Scale	Triads	Generation
POTENTE	2.43	4.14	Speed 13 - Stamina 14	18-26-19	1st
COMMANDMENT	7.00	11.00	Speed 13 - Stamina 13	18-22-18	1st
RENEGADE	3.00	3.00	Speed 14 - Stamina 14	18-22-18	1st
CANALETTO	3.80	4.60	Speed 12 - Stamina 13	17-24-18	1st
INTREPIDO	4.60	4.60	Speed 9 - Stamina 14	14-21-19	2nd
ROBUSTA	3.80	4.60	Speed 10 - Stamina 17	13-17-20	2nd

Six potential Derby contenders from Into Mischief. Of special note among this group:

• Potente is the only one who does not sit in the formal speed category with his 2.43 Roman Index. The addition of the prominent non-chefs in his 4.14 ANZ figure does add a great deal to the speed side, however the true 2.43 depicts even more stamina gained through the proper chefs among his kin.

• Note all of the 1st generation Into Mischief boys have a perfectly balanced mare scale with dominance in the Classic distance as depicted in the second slot of their triads. This is usually always the case when it comes to this sire. For them, the mares contribute and distribute the same amount of speed and stamina, not lopsided where one side suffers or waters down the other side. This is why Potente, and even Renegade, stand out - it is because their chefs do exactly the same. Perfect.

• Note that the 2nd generation colts, Intrepido and especially Robusta, lean much more to the stamina side in their mare's scale. Less inherited speed however, much more inbred endurance. This is the reason why they may have had a harder time competing in the shorter distances of their preps and why they would favor more distance while still holding high speed chef and ANZ indexes.

• Potente, Intrepido and Robusta have more inbred endurance (better for 10f) but that endurance could cut into the speed side. These types usually run from the rear. This is why it was of major importance to gain evidence through their displayed speed while competing in their early races - especially with Potente, who passed that test with ease.

• Commandment gained the most inbred speed of his kin which will water down his endurance at a higher clip than the others. This is why his beautiful energy distribution stood out in the beginning, but then it took a slight turn when he was drifting down the stretch in the FOY. That is in direct correspondence to gaining 7x the inherited speed as his distance went a bit further for that race. The bias on the day of the Derby will have the greatest affect on him out of the group. He will gain lengths on a wet track, he will have a harder time on a deep and muddy track, and he will be at the mercy of the pace on a clean track.

• Generally speaking and based on the higher amount of inbred speed for Into Mischief offspring, they do thrive on both clean tracks and wet sloppy tracks (Type Two Mud). Forward runners on a very deep and messy muddy track will tend to give in because of that excessive speed, which would be just the opposite for the rear runners. They would not be burning as much energy to get through that thick mud early while waiting for the lead tier to burn out. Stamina with the rear runners gains advantage on Type One Mud.

• Most importantly, all six of those colts are built for the 10f Derby.

  
  

CANDY RIDE (or Second Generation through Gun Runner)

This year, the Gun Runner/Candy Ride colts run through the entire spectrum and will be represented in each category. Generally, these two sires (either Candy Ride alone or attached through Gun Runner) pass through dominant stamina, however, based on the damsire, they either rise substantially on the speed side or gain even more stamina to attach through the mares bloodlines.

NAME	Roman Index	ANZ Index	Mare Scale	Triads	Generation
EMERGING MARKET	3.00	4.14	Speed 5 - Stamina 15	11-17-21	1st - Candy Ride
FURTHER ADO	1.86	3.00	Speed 9 - Stamina 14	14-15-19	1st - Gun Runner
BRANT	4.00	6.00	Speed 11 - Stamina 13	15-17-17	1st - Gun Runner
PALADIN	2.43	4.71	Speed 9 - Stamina 12	15-16-18	1st - Gun Runner (2nd - Tapit)
SILENT TACTIC	3.44	3.44	Speed 11 - Stamina 15	14-14-18	2nd - Gun Runner (2nd - Tapit)

Five potential Derby Contenders through Candy Ride/Gun Runner. Of special note among this group:

• You can clearly see the uptick in speed with Brant (and the downgrade in stamina) because of his damsire Liam's Map and the prominent non-chefs. His arrangement among his kin is the least desirable within the group. His "outside" influence that adds to his overall make-up is Liam's Map - sprinters speed. Adding 2nd generation Candy Ride could have been within reach, however, his style of running and his lead speed says he favors the wrong side for the Derby.

• The best numbers among the group (historically speaking) belong to Emerging Market. He sits at the bottom of the speed spectrum through his elite chefs - he hikes all the way up into that main hefty speed category through his prominent non-chefs and mares configurations ensure he has stamina to burn. With that very minimal 5 in the speed side of his mares, his displayed speed rips right through it and still ensures complete endurance. Fantastic.

• Further Ado sits within the typical stamina category for a Gun Runner boy. His prominent non chefs feed him enough speed that pushes him all the way up to that top speed category. His mares compliment the stamina side and the horse runs like a champ. His numbers are spectacularly blended and balanced across the spectrum.

• Paladin and Silent Tactic (1st and 2nd gen Gun Runner) both have killer additional stamina through Tapit in their second generation. Oddly enough and against the norm when it comes to Tapit, both of their triads sit on an incline. This is very nice although, when Tapit is involved, the mares numbers are not as important - it becomes a wash.

• Paladin's 2.43 index with Tapit is not and has never been historically correct for the Kentucky Derby - that setup is the ultimate and ideal set for a 12f Belmont Stakes. His 4.71 ANZ figure may just come into play and aid him a great deal for what is necessary for the Derby. That aspect helps to balance that scale.

• Most importantly, with the exception of Brant who is on the cusp, the other four are conclusively built for the 10f Derby.

  
  

TAPIT - 1st or 2nd Generation

Tapit offspring depict raw stamina whereby the mares numbers generally do not come into play. The necessary ingredient for the Kentucky Derby lies within the amount of inherited speed that they garnered through their chefs and any additional through the mares. High intensity of mare stamina is not warranted for Kentucky - they need to balance out that hefty lean towards the stamina side with enough speed to compete. Chef Index over 3.20 is ideal - ANZ figure helps to hike that side up.

NAME	Roman Index	ANZ INDEX	MARE SCALE	TRIADS	GENERATION
THE PUMA	4.60	5.40	Speed 13 - Stamina 12	18-14-17	2nd generation
CHIEF WALLABEE	3.57	3.57	Speed 15 - Stamina 10	18-15-13	2nd generation
SILENT TACTIC*	3.44	3.44	Speed 11 - Stamina 15	14-14-18	2nd generation
PALADIN*	2.43	4.71	Speed 9 - Stamina 12	15-16-18	2nd generation

• The Puma is sitting with the highest amount of inbred speed which aids a great deal and is also the reason why he did well on the sloppy track. Intense amount of speed on one side of the scale to aid in balancing out all of that Tapit stamina.

• Chief Wallabee hits the mark with a par at 3.20+. His mares, on the other hand, gave him the most additional inherited speed among the four. That is very important for Churchill in May.

• Paladin has shown evidence of capturing the 4.71 ANZ figure and looks to be just fine for the contest as a 2.43 Tapit boy because of Into Mischief and his prominent non-chefs. He has also given evidence through his style of running and ability to win at shorter distances against speedsters that Tapit is not infiltrating his speed side. Perfect credentials.

• Most importantly, all four are built for the Derby and hit the mark historically.

Just between those three sires, 12 potential contenders hit the proper 10f scale (excluding Brant) for board hit consideration. For the win, 10 of them follow the correct credentials to win the roses historically. The main handicapping point for the Kentucky Derby is to discern whether or not an entry has enough speed to compete with the proper endurance to distribute that speed for the full 10f. Simply three sires covers over half the field - we will be up against it this year.

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TWO YEAR OLD CAMPAIGNS ALIGNING WITH PREVIOUS 21 DERBY WINNERS:

Previous 21 Derby Winners:

Number of Races as a Two Year Old:

Zero to Two Races: 9 out of 21 = 43%

Three to Five Races: 10 out of 21 = 48%

Six and Over Races: 2 out of 21 = 9%

The 9 lightly raced previous winners were Justify (0), Mage (0), Authentic (1), Big Brown (1), Mandaloun (2), Country House (2), Always Dreaming (2), Animal Kingdom (2), and Barbaro (2).

2026 CONTENDERS:

Zero Races: Potente - Emerging Market - Canaletto - The Puma - Chief Wallabee

One Race: Robusta - Golden Tempo - Iron Honor - Reagan's Honor - Class President

Two Races: Commandment - Nearly - Paladin - Silent Tactic

Three to Five Races: Renegade - Intrepido - Further Ado - Brant - Fulleffort - Incredibolt - Chip Honcho

Six and Over Races: Pavlovian

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Previous 21 Derby Winners:

Broke Maiden at Two: 17 out of 21 = 81%

Did Not Break Maiden at Two: 4 out of 21 = 19%

Previous Winners - Justify, Mage, Country House and Always Dreaming did not break their maiden at two.

2026 CONTENDERS:

Broke Maiden at Two: Commandment - Intrepido - Further Ado - Brant - Paladin - Silent Tactic - Chief Wallabee - Fulleffort - Golden Tempo - Incredibolt - Iron Honor - Nearly - Chip Honcho - Pavlovian - Class President

Did Not Break Maiden at Two: Potente - Emerging Market - Renegade - Canaletto - Robusta - The Puma - Reagan's Honor

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Previous 21 Derby Winners: 

Track Surface Conquered as a two yr old:

Competed on AWS and/or Turf:    10 out of 19 = 52% (Mage and Justify excluded)

Previous winners include: Rich Strike, Country House, American Pharoah, California Chrome, I'll Have Another, Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, Big Brown, Street Sense and Barbaro.

2026 CONTENDERS:

Competed on AWS and/or Turf:  Silent Tactic - Fulleffort

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Previous 21 Derby Winners: 

Competed at Churchill Downs as a two year old:

Yes: 6 out of 21 = 29%

No: 15 out of 21 = 71%

It really doesn't matter, however, it is good for the traveling aspect and multi-bias exposure.

2026 CONTENDERS:

Yes: Commandment - Further Ado - Incredibolt - Chip Honcho

No: Renegade - Canaletto - Intrepido - Robusta - Brant - Silent Tactic - The Puma - Chief Wallabee - Fulleffort - Iron Honor - Nearly Reagan's Honor

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Previous 21 Derby Winners: 

Competed at Multiple Tracks as a 2 year old: 

Yes: 16 out of 21 = 76%

No: 5 out of 21 = 24%

Travel adaptability as juveniles is a huge plus for handling scattered Derby Preps plus the Derby's chaos, but also ensures exposure to different biases.

2026 CONTENDERS:

Yes: Commandment - Renegade - Intrepido - Further Ado - Fulleffort - Incredibolt - Nearly - Chip Honcho - Pavlovian

No: Potente - Canaletto - Robusta - Emerging Market - Brant - Paladin - Silent Tactic - The Puma - Chief Wallabee - Golden Tempo - Iron Honor - Reagan's Honor - Class President

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Previous 21 Derby Winners: 

Which coast they competed and/or trained as a 2 year old:

East Coast: 15 out of 21 = 72%

West Coast: 8 out of 21 = 28%

East Coast holds the edge with travelling to multiple tracks on the East Coast even more substantial. That combination is lethal. Nyquist and I'll Have Another competed at both coasts as 2 year olds

2026 CONTENDERS:

East Coast: Commandment - Renegade - Canaletto - Emerging Market - Further Ado - Paladin - The Puma - Chief Wallabee - Fulleffort - Golden Tempo - Incredibolt - Iron Honor - Nearly - Reagan's Honor - Chip Honcho - Class President

West Coast: Potente - Intrepido - Robusta - Brant - Pavlovian

Canada: Silent Tactic

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Previous 21 Derby Winners: 

Competed in a Derby Prep at Two Years Old:

Yes: 6 out of 21 = 29%

No: 15 out of 21 = 71%

Not only doesn't it matter if a colt competed in a Derby Prep as a two Year old, it doesn't even matter if he won, hit the board or came in dead least. It holds no bearing as far as history is concerned.

2026 CONTENDERS:

Yes: Renegade - Intrepido - Further Ado - Brant - Paladin - Incredibolt - Chip Honcho

No: Potente - Commandment - Canaletto - Robusta - Emerging Market - Silent Tactic - The Puma - Chief Wallabee - Fulleffort - Golden Tempo - Iron Honor - Nearly - Reagan's Honor - Pavlovian - Class President

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Previous 21 Derby Winners: 

Very First Race they entered as a new Three Year Old:

Maiden: 4 out of 21 = 19%

Allowance/Listed/Other: 7 out of 21 = 33%

Early Derby Prep: 10 out of 21 = 48%

Based on the history of the past 21 Kentucky Derby Winners, it is even between the maiden/allowances (52%) and the hyped early preps (48%). What mattered and what was of major importance is if they were successful in posting a win in that first race as a 3 year old.

2026 CONTENDERS:

Maiden: Potente - Robusta - Emerging Market - The Puma

Allowance/Listed/Other: Commandment - Fulleffort - Nearly - Reagan's Honor - Pavlovian - Class President

Early Derby Prep: Renegade - Canaletto - Intrepido - Further Ado - Brant - Paladin - Silent Tactic - Chief Wallabee - Golden Tempo -

Incredibolt - Iron Honor - Chip Honcho

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Previous 21 Derby Winners: 

First Race as a Three Year Old:

Won: 15 out of 21 = 71%

Lost: 6 out of 21 = 29%

Early-season victory = confidence booster, while the race type is irrelevant. This gives evidence of will and determination and the fight for the wire at such a young point in their development.

2026 CONTENDERS:

Won: Potente - Commandment - Renegade - Robusta - Emerging Market - Paladin - Golden Tempo - Incredibolt - Iron Honor Nearly - Reagan's Honor

Lost: Canaletto - Intrepido - Further Ado - Brant - Silent Tactic - The Puma - Chief Wallabee - Fulleffort - Chip Honcho - Pavlovian

Class President

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Previous 21 Derby Winners: 

Distance Progression as Juveniles: Stretching Out Successfully Early

Ran 8f or longer at two: 12 out of 19 = 63%

Early route ability (especially winning at 8f or 8.5f) is a stronger positive than generally appreciated and far more predictive than winning short flashy 6f or 7f races. This also ties in with the AWS/Turf "race training."

2026 CONTENDERS:

Ran 8f or longer at 2: Renegade - Canaletto - Intrepido - Emerging Market - Further Ado - Brant - Paladin - Silent Tactic - Fulleffort Incredibolt - Chip Honcho - Pavlovian - Class President

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Number of Favorable Points Covered as it aligns with the previous 21 Derby Winners, in order:

Breeding aspect would then take precedence. (That part comes later!)

There is a 67% chance that the winner comes from the first group barring overseas contenders who are not added into this.

There is a 33% chance that the winner comes from the second group, again, with breeding ultimately the defining factor.

The Highest: The Lowest:

INCREDIBOLT (9) GOLDEN TEMPO (4)

FURTHER ADO (8) IRON HONOR (4)

CHIP HONCHO (8) EMERGING MARKET (3)

RENEGADE (7) CANALETTO (3)

PALADIN (6) PAVLOVIAN (3)

FULLEFFORT (6) CHIEF WALLABEE (2)

COMMANDMENT (6) CLASS PRESIDENT (2)

INTREPIDO (6) REAGAN'S HONOR (2)

NEARLY (5) POTENTE (1)

SILENT TACTIC (5) THE PUMA (1)

BRANT (5) ROBUSTA (1)